Braves vs. Brewers Odds, Preview, Picks & Prediction — Friday, October 8
Braves vs. Brewers Odds
| Braves Odds | +132 |
| Brewers Odds | -156 |
| Over/Under | 7 |
| Date | Friday, Oct. 8 |
| Time | 4:37 p.m. ET |
| TV | TBS |
On Friday afternoon, the Atlanta Braves and the Milwaukee Brewers will battle in the National League Division Series at American Family Field. Entering play, Atlanta has won 12 of their last 14 games. Milwaukee has lost 10 of their last 14 contests. In Game 1, the Braves will send Charlie Morton to the hill. He will be opposed by Corbin Burnes. Oddsmakers are anticipating the Brewers securing a 1-0 series lead, pricing Milwaukee as -156 home favorites.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.
Atlanta Braves (+132)
In 33 starts this year for Atlanta, Morton was outstanding with a 3.34 ERA, 3.12 xERA, and a 3.17 FIP. He ranked in the 78th percentile or better in hard-hit rate, xwOBA, xERA, xBA, xSLG, barrel-rate, and strikeout percentage. When pitching away from Truist Park, he posted a 2.98 FIP and a 1.03 WHIP. In his last 12 trips to the mound during the regular season, he delivered a 2.71 ERA and a 2.64 FIP. Bettors should expect a strong outing from Morton against a weak Milwaukee lineup.
Since the beginning of September, the Braves offense ranks 11th in OPS and fourth in ISO, but is 27th in walk-rate and 26th in strikeout percentage at the plate. Freddie Freeman, Ozzie Albies, and Austin Riley are a talented threesome in this lineup, but other significant contributors, such as Jorge Soler, Joc Pederson, and Dansby Swanson have a proclivity for striking-out, which could be an issue against Burnes in this one. Do not expect many fireworks from this offense on Friday.
Over the final month and change of the regular season, Atlanta’s relief corps ranked ninth in bullpen FIP. Tyler Matzek, A.J. Minter, and Luke Jackson were sensational during the second half of the campaign. Having not played since Sunday, everyone should be rested and available for Manager Brian Snitker today.
Milwaukee Brewers (-156)
Burnes was arguably the best pitcher in all of baseball in 2021—posting a 2.43 ERA, 2.01 xERA, and a 1.63 FIP across 167.0 innings of work. Burnes ranked in the 92nd percentile or better in average exit velocity, hard-hit rate, xwOBA, xERA, xBA, xSLG, barrel-rate, strikeout and walk percentage, whiff-rate, and chase rate. He possesses some of the nastiest spin rates in the game as well. When pitching at home this season, he turned in a 1.69 FIP and a 1.08 WHIP. Burnes only allowed more than three earned runs four times in 28 starts this year, but his worst outing of the year came in Atlanta on July 30, during which he surrendered a season-high five earned runs in only four innings of work. Still, Burnes is a safe bet to turn in a quality start in this contest.
More concerning than Burnes is Milwaukee’s anemic offensive attack. Since September 1, the Brewers offense ranks 26th in OPS, 22nd in ISO, fourth in walk-rate, and 19th in strikeout percentage. Milwaukee is going to have a difficult time generating much solid contact against Morton. If there is one area they can look to exploit, it is the fact that Morton sometimes struggles with his command. Nevertheless, hoping to walk their way into runs is not likely to yield significant offensive output.
While Burnes has been excellent, Milwaukee’s bullpen has not been so good. Over the last month, the Brewers relief unit ranks 27th in bullpen FIP. The fact that Devin Williams irresponsibly fractured his hand is not going to help matters. Outside of Josh Hader, the late innings are filled with question marks for this group.
Braves vs. Brewers Picks
Both of these offenses are likely to struggle against dominant starting pitching. However, a total priced at seven runs seems too low for a full game, considering the fact that there are numerous less talented arms that could find their way into this game in the latter frames. If looking to play the total, play the under on the first five innings. If looking for a team to back, take the Braves in this one—the team with the far superior offense, the better bullpen, and a starting pitcher who is capable of keeping them competitive into the late innings.
PICK: Braves ML (+132), Under 3.5, First 5 innings (-105)
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