Brief Thoughts on the NBA All-Star Slate
“I am not a degen, I am not a degen, I am not a degen…”
I said this to myself when I learned there was a two-game NBA All-Star slate on DraftKings yesterday featuring Friday’s World vs USA Rising Stars game, and Sunday’s East vs West All-Star game. I had every intention of not playing and giving myself a long DFS break. But in the end, I am a degen.
I’m going to keep this brief and caveat this by saying analyzing an All-Star slate is tricky. We have to throw out prior knowledge on rotations and coaching tendencies because we’re working with different rosters and coaching staffs each year. So I’m going to take a different approach, and it’s the approach I took when I did some NBA Preseason writing earlier this year on RotoGrinders: I’m going to lay out the facts and it’s up to you to decide what to do with it. Here are my thoughts:
The Differences
The biggest difference between Friday’s and Sunday’s game are the rosters. One noticeable difference is that the Rising Stars game features teams of 10, whereas the All-Star Game features teams of 12. But another difference is that the Rising Stars game is 40 minutes long compared to the All-Star Game being 48 minutes long, so 200 minutes are up for grabs compared to 240. Keep this in mind.
@sethayates pulled some data and created the chart below using the last five years (thanks Seth!). What the chart is saying is that on average, starters have outproduced non-starters. Additionally, bench players for the Rising Stars game have averaged more DraftKings points than All-Star bench players.
The Narratives
There are a few main narratives I’m focused on. One is that this All-Star weekend is held in New Orleans (SMOOOTHIIEE KINNGGGGG) so there might be extra incentive for the Pelicans players involved. This would include Anthony Davis, who is starting the All-Star game, and Buddy Hield for the Rising Stars game.
Another narrative is the #angryruss narrative for Russell Westbrook. Stephen Curry and James Harden will be the starting backcourt for the West, meaning Westbrook will be coming off the bench and running with the second unit. I have to imagine he will be pumped up to prove why he should’ve been a starter, and it’s not like anyone will be playing defense against him. Westbrook was also last year’s MVP with a line of 31 points | 8 rebounds | 5 assists | 5 steals. Honestly, that looks like a stat line from one of his normal regular season games this year.
The other narrative involves Russ and Kevin Durant in a #cupcake narrative, who will be on the same team again. How does their disdain for one another play out on a basketball court? Will they just never pass the ball to each another? It will be interesting to see how Coach Kerr handles their time on the court.
Lastly, there’s the #ballhoglowry narrative. I have no idea if Kyle Lowry will actually shoot 17 3-pointers but if he makes them all, you’re looking at a good game.
The Information
Information is the best way to get a leg up on your competition. If you can find tidbits on what Brad Stevens or Steve Kerr plan to do in terms of minutes and rotations, that will benefit you greatly. As I’m writing this I have not seen who will be starting for the Rising Stars game, so you’ll want to monitor the news for that.
The Biases
My biggest encouragement would be to throw out the previous biases you have. You’re going to see the names Alex Abrines and DeAndre Jordan with the same salary. Again, in a vacuum, DeAndre Jordan is the superior player in real life. But this is not a normal slate we’re working with, and it’s within the realm of possibilities Abrines outscores Jordan somehow (I’m not saying he will, just that it’s possible). Don’t be afraid to be a little crazy to take down a big GPP.
To better illustrate this point, I estimated the DraftKings points for last year’s Rising Stars game. Keep in mind I don’t think this slate existed last year so I’m calculating it quickly (feel free to check my work). The players highlighted in Green were the starters. Take a look:
A few things pop out at me. One is that of all players, Emmanuel Mudiay led the game with 58.25 DraftKings points, while Jordan Clarkson put up 50.75. I would not have expected that. Secondly, Mario Hezonja put up a 49 burger. MARIO HEZONJA! What percentage of teams would have even rostered him last year? So again my point is don’t be afraid to get frisky with your team, and don’t be afraid to mix in players from the Rising Stars game.
Update 1:14pm PST
Here’s DK points for last year’s All-Star game:
That’s it for now. You can find me on Twitter here. Thanks for reading and good luck you degens.