Buccaneers vs. Packers Betting Preview: Odds, Picks & NFC Championship Prediction
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers delivered the Packers their largest defeat of the season in Week 6, but it’s the Packers who are favored in the NFL betting market ahead of Sunday’s NFC Championship. Who will cover the spread and how many points will be scored? Here’s your betting guide for the big game, with odds, props, picks, and an NFC Championship prediction.
Aaron Rodgers. Tom Brady. Head to head. In the NFC Championship.
It’s not quite the epic Super Bowl matchup we all dreamed of, but it’s close enough.
Fans and foes widely consider Brady the GOAT, while Rodgers’ disciples show their allegiance not by arguing that their quarterback is the greatest but that he’s the best ever to throw the football. (At least for me, 24-year-old Patrick Mahomes is already making that debate a challenge, too.)
37 and 43, respectively, Rodgers and Brady have only played each other three times throughout their careers. How do arguably the two greatest quarterbacks of all time play in the NFL for nearly 15 years together yet we can count on one hand the number of times they’ve faced off? A tragedy, indeed.
The two have had their chances, but all too often it was Rodgers who fell short.
Since Rodgers’ first and only Super Bowl appearance in 2011, Tom Brady has made it to the biggest game of the season in 2012, 2015, 2017, 2018 and 2019.
Losing ground in the GOAT debate each subsequent year without another Super Bowl appearance, Rodgers came closest to colliding with Brady in 2015. Unfortunately, questionable play-calling by then-head coach Mike McCarthy and a botched onside recovery continues to haunt Packers fans (like myself) to this day.
McCarthy is in Dallas now, though, and the Packers are clearly better off without him. Second-year head coach Matt LaFleur has led the Packers to back-to-back 13-3 seasons along with consecutive NFC Championship appearances.
To return to the Super Bowl, LaFleur and Rodgers must now defeat Brady in a postseason matchup between two legends that is long overdue.
Despite the Tompa Bay Buccaneers delivering the Packers their worst loss of the season, oddsmakers favor the Packers more than a field goal in Sunday’s NFC Championship.
Bucs vs. Packers: NFC Championship Odds
According to Scores And Odds, the Buccaneers-Packers spread has stayed steady with the Packers -3.5 at most sportsbooks throughout the week.
As of Thursday afternoon, 62% of the spread betting handle is on the Cheeseheads, while 81% of the Over/Under handle likes Brady and Rodgers to combine for more than 51.5 points.
What Happened Last Time?
As I already mentioned, this isn’t the first meeting between these two teams this season.
The first time, the Bucs dominated the Packers on both sides of the ball, winning 38-10 in a disappointing primetime game.
On offense, Ronald Jones and Ke’Shawn Vaughn combined for 158 rushing yards, as Bucs opted to move the ball with their running backs. Lately it’s been the 1-2 punch of Jones and Fournette that is giving defensive coordinators fits.
Through two playoff games, the first against Washington and the second against the Saints, the Bucs have elected to run the ball 53% of the time on early downs. Expect Bruce Arians to continue to lean on the run in the NFC Championship, against a defense that has proven susceptible to running backs this season on more than one occasion.
With Jaire Alexander as the league’s top-rated cornerback, per PFF, the safest route against Packers defense is on the ground. Remarkably, only Deshaun Watson has managed to eclipse 300 passing yards against this Packers secondary. On the other hand, the Packers DVOA against the run ranks 18th. Thanks to the Packers’ top-ranked offense, most teams have been forced to abandon the run earlier than later as they try to keep pace with Rodgers’ and Adams’ scoring efficiency.
Albeit briefly, it looked like a similar story was unfolding in Week 6 when the Packers jolted out to a 10-0 lead until an aggressive front seven of Buccaneers had something to say. Blitzing heavily, the Buccaneers pass rush helped their secondary grab Rodgers’ third-career pick six. Blitzing on 53% of Rodgers’ dropbacks, the Bucs continued with their aggressive scheme, which resulted in yet another rare Rodgers turnover. By the end of the game, the presumptive NFL MPV completed merely 16-of-35 pass attempts for 160 yards and no touchdowns.
That was then, this is now. At least that’s what Packers fans are telling us, and they might have a point.
Since then the Packers have looked like the best team in the NFL not named the Kansas City Chiefs, while Aaron Rodgers has looked like the best quarterback in the league, plain and simple.
Green Bay’s run defense showed improvement toward the end of the season, most notably holding Derrick Henry below 100 rushing yards in sub-freezing temperatures. On offense, the Packers have clearly found their groove, and unlike in Week 6, it won’t be Adams’ first game back from an injury.
Oh yeah, did I mention they’ll be playing at Lambeau Field?
NFC Championship Weather
Let it snow, let it snow, let it snow…
Eh, not so fast.
Snow was in the forecast for Sunday’s NFC Championship game earlier this week, according to RotoGrinders meteorologist Kevin Roth. However, things have recently cleared up, leaving only a 23% chance of precipitation at kickof. Temperatures will be cold but not miserable, and light winds won’t do anything to throw these quarterbacks off their game. Brady will be fine playing in 27 degrees but will the rest of the Florida boys?
While you’ll hear plenty of chatter about the Lambeau cold and how the weather will aid the Packers, I don’t find the arguments convincing.
Stay on top of the weather for both the AFC and NFC Championship with Kevin Roth’s NFL weather report.
Injuries
Buccaneers: RB Ronald Jones (Probable); WR Antonio Brown (OUT)
Packers: RB AJ Dillon (Questionable)
With Ronald Jones playing last week for the Bucs and the Packers have more than enough depth at running back, the most important injury to keep track of, especially for NFC Championship game prop betting purposes, is Antonio Brown. Brown injured his knee in the divisional round, and an MRI after the game showed that Brown did not suffer a serious injury. However, Brown was absent at Thursday’s practice and Bruce Arians told reporters that the receiver will “be a game-time decision.”
Update: Antonio Brown has been ruled out.
Bruce Arians said that Antonio Brown will not necessarily have to practice this week in order to play Sunday. He’s got enough experience to carry him through. “He’ll be a game-time decision, “Arians said.
— JennaLaineESPN (@JennaLaineESPN) January 21, 2021
NFL DFS Tips
Let’s briefly touch on the AFC and NFC Championship DFS slate for DraftKings and FanDuel. Most of my DFS exposure will come from the Bills-Chiefs AFC Championship game, but I do like trying to get a bit of leverage with Ronald Jones at running back.
Jones rushed for 62 yards on 12 carries in his first game back from the same injury that kept him inactive against Washington. His numbers weren’t as good as Fournette’s, but he did play 52.4% of snaps compared to Fournette’s 41.3%. Additionally, Jones was given more rush attempts inside the 10. The one downside to playing Jones, especially in PPR formats like on DraftKings, is that Fournette has a more dominant presence in the passing game.
If you think the Packers will cover the spread with ease, then maybe stick with the chalkier running back. As you’ll see below, I’m skeptical that will be the case — which is why Jones at projected 19% ownership to Fournette’s 57%.
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NFC Championship Prediction & Picks
I picked the Buccaneers when I first looked at AFC and NFC Championship lines on Monday, and I’m not changing my NFC Championship pick now — though I will add an Over/Under prediction.
The Packers have home-field advantage, sure, but only so many fans will be allowed inside Lambeau Stadium under the current Covid-19 protocols. You might point to the weather as one advantage for the Packers, but things don’t look too harsh. Even if things change on that front, Brady is more than prepared to play in frigid conditions. He’s reached the Super Bowl nine times while playing in similar weather, after all.
Ultimately, though, the Buccaneers match up well with the Packers. Their defense was the one defense that proved capable of slowing down Rodgers all season, and they did that with authority. The blueprint was a heavy blitz scheme that overwhelmed a talented offensive line and disrupted the Packers passing attack — that blueprint will be used again, but will the Packers be better prepared to counter it?
I’m not saying the Bucs win the NFC Championship, but I think they keep it within a field goal as the Packers find a way to punch their ticket to Tampa in a relatively low scoring affair. With that said, let’s go ahead and add the Under to our Championship Sunday betting card.
Buccaneers-Packers Prop Picks
Aaron Jones
Under 61.5 Rushing Yards at PointsBet
Under 14.5 Rush Attempts (+115) at BetMGM
Last week my Over/Under and ATS picks weren’t much to write home about — I picked the Rams +6.5 and Under — but I licked my wounds with a 3-1 prop record for the game, which included an Over bet on Aaron Jones rushing prop (68.5 yards at the time). Part of my reasoning for the Over was that the Packers have historically used Jones much more than they do in the regular season. One week later, the prop is seven yards shorter. So I’m sure taking the over again, right? WRONG. Jones’ 14 rush attempts were actually fewer than the 18 combined rush attempts between Packers’ other running backs, Jamaal Williams and AJ Dillon, the latter of whom eventually left the game with an injury. A limited participant in Thursday’s practice, Dillon is trending in the right direction to play his first conference championship game. Moreover, the best way to attack Tampa Bay is through the air, as their defense ranks No. 1 in DVOA against the run.
Ronald Jones
Over 35.5 Rushing Yards at BetMGM
For reasons mentioned throughout this article, this might be my favorite prop pick of the slate. To reiterate, I think Ronald’s workload will increase in his second game back from injury. Right now Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ projects Jones to rush for 40 yards. I think he’ll have the opportunity to get even more than that.
Tom Brady
Under 288.5 Passing Yards at BetMGM
Brady might be without Antonio Brown, meanwhile Jaire Alexander will be covering either Mike Evans or Chris Godwin, and the Packers defense is far weaker against the run than they are against the pass. Take the Under.
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