Cardinals vs. Rockies MLB Odds, Picks, & Predictions (Friday, July 2)
Cardinals vs. Rockies MLB Odds
| Cardinals Odds | -105 |
| Rockies | -115 |
| Over/Under | 12.5 |
| Time | 8:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | ATRM |
| Odds accurate as of Friday at BetMGM | |
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Happy Fourth of July weekend! If you’re looking for an early fireworks show these two offenses, the Cardinals and Rockies may have you covered on Friday night. After a disappointing series opener that ended in just 7 total runs and only featured the occasional bottle rocket and roman candle, sportsbooks are expecting more of the bigger stuff in the second game of the series with the total set at 12.5 runs, the highest of the day by 2.5 runs. Will these offenses deliver on high expectations or fizzle out again?
Cardinals vs. Rockies Preview
In addition to this game taking place at the extremely hitter friendly Coors Field, this game has such a high total because of who each team will be trotting out to pitch. Not only are the starting pitchers for this game, Johan Oviedo and Chi Chi Gonzalez, well below league average arms but they will be backed by the two worst bullpens in the league.
Cardinals’ starter, Oviedo, has only pitched deeper than 5 innings once this season and is the owner of a 5.31 SIERA. Additionally, Oviedo doesn’t miss very many bats (17.7% strikeout rate) and doesn’t have very good control (12.6% walk rate). Gonzalez (5.08 SIERA) is similar to Oviedo but with better control (6.7% walk rate). Gonzalez misses even less bats (13.8% strikeout rate) which should mean a lot of balls in play for a Saint Louis offense that strikes out at the fifth lowest rate (22.2%) in the league.
When it comes to the relievers, the Cardinals’ staff owns the worst SIERA (4.67) in the league and the Rockies’ staff owns the second worst (4.43). Surprisingly, the Cardinals bullpen hasn’t been very giving in terms of the long ball but the Rockies pen is allowing 1.42 HRs per 9 innings, the third highest mark in the league. It’s worth noting that the Cardinals lack of HRs allowed is likely an outlier and is not necessarily a good thing as it’s not due to a high ground ball rate. As a team they have allowed the fourth highest line drive rate in the league.
Hitting Breakdown
Everything I just told you about how bad the pitching is on these two teams should not be overshadowed by how bad the offenses have been this season. Colorado ranks dead last in wRC+ (79) and St. Louis sits fifth worst at 87. However, it’s not all gloom and doom as there are some very talented hitters on each team.
The Cardinals offense is anchored by Nolan Arenado who spent his first 8 years of his career with the Colorado Rockies. Arenado’s return to Coors Field was uneventful last night as he turned in an 0-for-4 performance so he’ll be looking to get off the schneid tonight in a favorable matchup. Arenado is a well above average hitter against all-handed pitching and has shown plenty of power against righties with a career .235 ISO. Similar to Arenado, Paul Goldschmidt is absolutely deadly against left-handed pitching, but is still well above average against righties with a career 132 wRC+ and .216 ISO. The last individual St. Louis batter worth mentioning is Tyler O’Neill who has actually shown more power against RHP in his first four seasons than his two teammates with a .244 ISO.
It’s not too surprising that the Rockies have the worst wRC+ in the league when you take a look at their lineup. While they still have plenty of power with Ryan McMahon and C.J. Cron, Trevor Story, who has struggled this season, is the only truly talented hitter. The 35 year old Charlie Blackmon used to fit that bill but the aging curve has seemingly grabbed hold of him with a big drop off in production over the last two seasons. Don’t get me wrong, Blackmon is still a solid bat who has been more patient at the plate as his career has progressed, but he’s seen a fairly big drop off in power. I also want to make it clear that for as poor as I think this offense is, I think the Cardinals pitching is significantly worse and I don’t expect the Rockies will have trouble getting runners on base.
Cardinals-Rockies Picks
This game is going to be a battle of (mostly) bad hitting against (definitely) bad pitching and I expect hitting to prevail and a lot of runs to be scored. While it may be ambitious, I don’t hate the idea of throwing a few bucks down on some alternate overs in addition to the 12.5. DraftKings Sportsbook is currently offering Alternate Totals up to 15.5 with the Over priced at +220.
While I give the Rockies a slight edge in the pitching department, the Cardinals have the better individual offensive talent and better overall lineup and I expect them to walk away with the win. If you’re looking to cheer for a feel good story, throw a small bet on some Nolan Arenado overs where you can find them – there should be more available closer to first pitch.
Pick: Over 12.5
Pick: Cardinals -105
Image Credit: Imagn