Daily Batter Breakdown: Mon, Apr 14th

by Jon Schiller (Varncass) Last Updated 2014-04-14 21:14:28

Welcome to the Daily Batter Breakdown. Each day, with at least 8 games on the night slate, I’ll breakdown some of the best top tier hitters to target based on matchup. The biggest split taken into account will be left/right, but each player card will also show park factors, player salaries and then a description of why I’ll be targeting him. Be sure to check out the FAQ for more information on specific stats.

It is definitely an interesting day today with all of the games being extremely close in the Vegas odds. No team is above 4.5 runs projected and no team is better than a -140 favorite anywhere. This could result in some really close games and it should not favor stacks as much tonight. Not a lot of time on a busy Monday morning, so I won’t waste any time getting into things.

		Devin Mesoraco
		Daily Breakdown			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits			0.321	0.878	2.47%	0.375
		Last 7 Days Splits			0.455	1.5	9.09%	0.628
		Opp SP vs. LR			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Rodriguez – LEFT			0.247	0.727	5.51%	0.322
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DS	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
0.989	0.938	$2,500	$6,864	$7,100	$3,000	$53,900	$5,000	$7,000

Devin Mesoraco

Mesoraco’s picture makes him look like a zombie, but he hasn’t been a zombie at the plate since getting the recent starts, in fact, he’s hitting .500 with a 1.672 OPS. While those numbers aren’t sustainable, it’s definitely in your interest to pick him while his price continues to be low at almost every site he plays at. Tonight he is hitting in a hitters park against a lefty, the handedness that he hit .312 with an .837 OPS against last year. The wind is also projected to be blowing out to left field today which will also add to his power. The one thing I am concerned about is if this game actually gets played as there is a pretty good chance of showers the whole night.

		Ryan Howard
		Daily Breakdown			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits			0.296	0.858	3.48%	0.366
		Last 7 Days Splits			0.143	0.498	0.00%	0.251
		Opp SP vs. LR			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Santana – RIGHT			0.244	0.660	6.07%	0.296
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DS	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
1.107	1.037	$3,100	$5,499	$8,650	$3,800	$63,600	$6,500	$8,500

Ryan Howard

Santana was great in his first start,
however it was at home against the Mets and we are talking about Ervin Santana here who isn’t the model of consistency year in and year out. Santana may be one of the best options on the board but the Phillies have a lot of left handed options they can test him with. Howard has always raked against right handed pitching and should be in the middle of the lineup tonight for extremely cheap. Another thing that should help out this Phillies lineup is that the wind is going to be blowing out tonight. Howard is extremely cheap and will not be highly owned so if he does manage a homer, it should put a jolt into your lineup.

		Robinson Cano
		Daily Breakdown			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits			0.329	0.959	5.06%	0.406
		Last 7 Days Splits			0.211	0.513	0.00%	0.233
		Opp SP vs. LR			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Lewis – RIGHT
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DS	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
0.985	1.002	$4,300	$6,183	$10,250	$4,000	$80,100	$6,600	$10,400

Robinson Cano

Colby Lewis returns for the Rangers after multiple injuries and surgery recovery, and pardon me if I am low on his return as he struggled with velocity last year and I isn’t the same pitcher he was back in his Rangers heyday. Robinson Cano is ridiculously cheap for his ability on certain sites right now and has always killed right handers while Lewis has always struggled against lefties. The Mariners get to hit in a really nice hitter’s park today and I am really high on their players as I think Lewis is one of the most likely candidates to melt down early.

		Evan Longoria
		Daily Breakdown			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits			0.311	0.966	5.46%	0.405
		Last 7 Days Splits			0.318	0.757	0.00%	0.337
		Opp SP vs. LR			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Chen – LEFT			0.292	0.789	6.13%	0.346
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DS	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
1.057	1.024	$4,400	$7,288	$10,350	$4,700	$75,100	$7,100	$10,100

Evan Longoria

Chen has been, uh, very hittable this year with a 1.95 WHIP in his first 2 starts and allowing a .961 OPS. While he is certainly better than this in the long run, at this point he is really struggling to keep balls from hitting the gaps. While Zobrist has a great BVP history off Chen, I really like Longoria in this situation as well who mashes left handed pitching and will be hitting in a lineup that will put a bunch of right handed bats out there for Chen to hit. The Rays offense hasn’t been doing much lately, but if Chen isn’t careful with his location, he could allow a sleeping giant to awaken.

		Brad Miller
		Daily Breakdown			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits			0.250	0.730	3.81%	0.318
		Last 7 Days Splits			0.190	0.561	4.76%	0.249
		Opp SP vs. LR			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Lewis – RIGHT
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DS	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
0.985	1.002	$3,300	$5,468	$7,950	$3,800	$76,300	$6,100	$8,800

Brad Miller

Heading back to the Mariners for a pick at shortstop who did see a rapid increase and salary and then a correction back to the middle. Miller had a nice start and has regressed a little bit but is on a 3 game hit streak and is leaving Safeco where he has struggled to put together some consistent games at the plate this year. As noted above, I’m not big on Colby Lewis in this game and I really like the Mariners bats. Miller should be batting right around Cano so it’s definitely not a bad idea to stack them up together. While Miller has been awful against right handers this year, he was better against them last year in a much bigger sample.

		Wil Myers
		Daily Breakdown			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits			0.273	0.771	2.73%	0.335
		Last 7 Days Splits			0.200	0.4	0.00%	0.179
		Opp SP vs. LR			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Chen – LEFT			0.292	0.789	6.13%	0.346
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DS	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
1.057	1.024	$3,300	$4,734	$8,600	$3,400	$66,600	$6,300	$9,200

Wil Myers

Looking at Wil Myers price, I am still astounded at how cheap he is right now. Then I look, and notice that in the Rays awful recent batting stretch he hasn’t done much of anything. He is still a monster talent and is way cheaper than what he is worth in my opinion. He also gets to face Chen who as noted above has really struggled at getting guys out recently. Myers and Longoria will stack up nicely, and if you have those two, you should think about Zobrist who has had a great history against Chen as well.

		Jason Heyward
		Daily Breakdown			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits			0.240	0.752	4.22%	0.336
		Last 7 Days Splits			0.120	0.481	4.00%	0.23
		Opp SP vs. LR			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Hernandez – RIGHT			0.294	0.859	7.95%	0.386
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DS	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
1.107	1.037	$3,200	$6,420	$9,900	$4,200	$66,600	$6,100	$8,700

Jason Heyward

Other than his 2 homers, Heyward has been downright terrible at the plate this year, and completely inept against left handed pitching. It’s a good thing he is against a right hander in Roberto Hernandez now as Hernandez has an addiction with giving up long balls to left handers. You aren’t picking Heyward in a cash game as he will get you a bad score more often than not, but few can get you the upside he can with all of that power he possesses. The park, wind and pitcher are all in Heyward’s favor tonight to hit one out, and he should get 5 tries at it leading off the game as well.

		Mike Trout
		Daily Breakdown			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits			0.321	0.994	5.13%	0.423
		Last 7 Days Splits			0.222	0.646	3.70%	0.288
		Opp SP vs. LR			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Chavez – RIGHT			0.207	0.562	4.69%	0.258
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DS	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
0.968	1.066	$5,200	$10,380	$13,400	$5,500	$100,900	$10,300	$12,500

Mike Trout

It’s a rarity that you see Trout as the #2 salary guy on a site, but tonight on DraftKings he is the #5 guy and his salary is much cheaper than Braun’s. Trout has hit 2 homers in 3 games and usually when he gets on a tear, no one can stop him. He’s the best hitter in the game right now and this is definitely a site dependent play, but if you can get him at a bargain tonight, you shouldn’t have to sacrifice the rest of your team to play him. He has so many options and hasn’t even stolen a base yet this season. It does concern me that Chavez has been extremely good lately, but with a righty on the mound and 2nd base open, it should open up some opportunities for Trout to run here.

		Alex Rios
		Daily Breakdown			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits			0.325	0.922	5.10%	0.395
		Last 7 Days Splits			0.250	0.613	0.00%	0.279
		Opp SP vs. LR			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Elias – LEFT			0.192	0.598	12.90%	0.295
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DS	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
0.985	1.016	$3,900	$8,191	$10,000	$4,000	$78,000	$6,700	$9,600

Alex Rios

Rios has started off this season bombing left handed pitching to a 1.092 OPS in a small sample, which picks up right where he left off last year with his .889 OPS against lefties in the entire season. He has came down to Earth a bit after a nice start, and it hasn’t helped that the Rangers’ offense as been pathetic. I think a lot of people will probably stray from the Rangers today but Vegas likes them as one of the highest scoring teams of the night so not considering them would be a mistake in my eyes. Rios is one of my favorite plays on the Rangers considering the way he crushes lefties and affordable price.

		Lucas Duda
		Daily Breakdown			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits			0.240	0.840	6.00%	0.365
		Last 7 Days Splits			0.294	0.804	5.88%	0.354
		Opp SP vs. LR			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Collmenter – RIGHT			0.247	0.620	8.24%	0.298
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DS	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
0.974	0.970	$2,600	$6,700	$8,000	$3,700	$60,700	$5,600	$5,800

Lucas Duda

The Mets appear to still be in a position battle at first base as when announced as the starting first baseman, Lucas Duda decided to not close the door and play pretty bad. He’s shown some life lately raising his average above the Mendoza Line, but it’s still a struggle for him to get on base as his walk rate isn’t there right now. I like him tonight however against Collmenter, as he hits in a homer-friendly park in Arizona against a right handed picher, those which he hits most of all his homers against. He is near minimum salary on most sites and has 2 HR upside. You cannot find that with most of the guys at his price range so he makes a terrific GPP play. Cash games? Not so much and I would avoid him there.