Daily Batter Breakdown: Tue, May 20th

by Jon Schiller (Varncass) Last Updated 2014-05-20 20:01:48

Welcome to the Daily Batter Breakdown. Each day, with at least 8 games on the night slate, I’ll breakdown some of the best top tier hitters to target based on matchup. The biggest split taken into account will be left/right, but each player card will also show park factors, player salaries and then a description of why I’ll be targeting him. Be sure to check out the FAQ for more information on specific stats.

It feels like a while since the last Batter Breakdown even though it’s only been 3 days. We’re back and ready for action on a massive Tuesday with qualifiers all over the place and some huge tournaments across the industry.

		Buster Posey
		Daily Breakdown			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits			0.255	0.756	4.26%	0.334
		Last 7 Days Splits			0.100	0.317	0.00%	0.148
		Opp SP vs. LR			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Morales – LEFT			0.311	0.923	12.56%	0.409
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DS	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
1.273	1.146	$3,900	$7,839	$9,600	$4,900	$77,400	$6,500	$9,700

Buster Posey

Well, here you have Posey who is notorious for crushing left handers in Coors Field against a poor lefty in a 10 over under game. He’s certainly going to be highly owned but he’s essentially like Tulo today and is a fade if you dare play. Posey is the best catcher on the board and I think he has a really solid game today.

		Edwin Encarnacion
		Daily Breakdown			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits			0.222	0.762	2.78%	0.334
		Last 7 Days Splits			0.200	0.886	12.00%	0.378
		Opp SP vs. LR			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Doubront – LEFT			0.263	0.756	10.37%	0.336
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DS	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
0.960	1.056	$4,100	$9,118	$11,650	$5,000	$91,300	$8,500	$11,900

Edwin Encarnacion

Edwin isn’t really known for killing left handed pitching, but he still hits lefties really well. A .939 OPS in the last 3 years is nothing to scoff at and it’s better than how he hits against right handers. The Red Sox/Jays game has the 2nd highest over/under of the night here and Vegas is expecting some runs in this one. I’m not a huge fan of Doubront who has had some problems with homers and I think that Encarnacion can get one over the monster today.

		Dustin Pedroia
		Daily Breakdown			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits			0.286	0.876	2.04%	0.385
		Last 7 Days Splits			0.200	0.499	0.00%	0.231
		Opp SP vs. LR			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Happ – LEFT			0.239	0.740	12.32%	0.330
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DS	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
0.960	1.056	$3,400	$7,324	$9,600	$4,900	$72,400	$6,500	$9,800

Dustin Pedroia

Speaking about a guy who knows how to get one over the monster, Pedroia has spent his years sailing his homers over that big wall. JA Happ has allowed a .935 OPS to right handers this year and even though there’s a bit of a small sample it’s not like he’s been great against right handers at all in his career. The Red Sox are going to score some runs and Pedroia should be a huge part of it leading off.

		Kyle Seager
		Daily Breakdown			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits			0.247	0.873	6.74%	0.382
		Last 7 Days Splits			0.136	0.345	0.00%	0.169
		Opp SP vs. LR			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Lewis – RIGHT			0.312	0.852	5.95%	0.373
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DS	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
0.985	1.002	$3,000	$5,867	$8,700	$4,100	$66,100	$6,000	$8,500

Kyle Seager

Seager has been terrible lately but I still think he’s a better hitter than he’s shown. He really does damage against right handed pitching and even with his struggles has managed a .857 OPS against them this year with all 6 of his homers. Lewis was miserable 2 starts ago but good against Houston last start so I’m really not sure what to think of him tonight except for his miserable batted ball numbers this year.

		Troy Tulowitzki
		Daily Breakdown			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits			0.452	1.406	9.52%	0.587
		Last 7 Days Splits			0.375	1.224	12.50%	0.519
		Opp SP vs. LR			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Bumgarner – LEFT			0.230	0.636	8.66%	0.292
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DS	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
1.273	1.146	$5,800	$8,891	$14,850	$6,100	$104,000	$9,900	$14,000

Troy Tulowitzki

It’s a pretty obvious play today even against Bumgarner, but I feel as if I have to include him anyway. He’s on pace to have a record breaking WAR season and is not even doing it only with the glove. At this point he’s got 4 HR in 43 AB against left handed pitching so if he continues at this pace assuming 5 at bats, he has a 50% chance to homer tonight in Coors where he’s batting .571 with a 1.704 OPS. His salary is at a ridiculous point on most sites, but at 8,891 on DS how can you not take him?

		Michael Saunders
		Daily Breakdown			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits			0.235	0.677	2.94%	0.294
		Last 7 Days Splits			0.500	1.467	8.33%	0.558
		Opp SP vs. LR			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Lewis – RIGHT			0.312	0.852	5.95%	0.373
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DS	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
0.985	1.002	$3,300	$5,226	$7,350	$3,200	$56,000	$6,800	$6,000

Michael Saunders

I didn’t realize it until I was writing up Saunders, but I am a huge fan of the Mariners tonight and I think with all of their power left handed bats, this could be a bad start for Lewis. I think the Mariners make a solid stack tonight against Lewis who has allowed 12 ER in 14 IP at home this year. Yes, his BABIP is north of 4 and it will correct itsself however I am extremely concerned about Lewis allowing a ton of hard hit balls which is why the BABIP is so high. His 25% line drive rate is much worse than his career average and he’s definitely struggling to regain his form. His history of struggling against left handed hitting, his poor results in Texas and all of the other factors lead me to believe he will struggle tonight.

		Brandon Moss
		Daily Breakdown			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits			0.280	0.927	6.78%	0.394
		Last 7 Days Splits			0.455	1.737	13.64%	0.692
		Opp SP vs. LR			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Odorizzi – RIGHT			0.293	0.823	8.28%	0.362
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DS	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
0.931	0.976	$4,300	$8,148	$11,450	$4,900	$116,100	$12,000	$10,500

Brandon Moss

Odorizzi has been fantastic in the last 2 starts, but he magically hasn’t turned into a Cy Young pitcher out there. He’s got a ton of talent but will have bumps in the road. He continues to allow many more fly balls than groundouts which could get him in trouble against a guy like Moss who will push those fly balls out of the park. If you haven’t been paying attention to DFS Baseball over the last week, stacking the Athletics has been somewhat the go-to stack that has paid off. Moss has been on fire with a 1.998 OPS in his last 7 days with 3 HRs. Moss crushes right handed pitching and Odorizzi really struggles against left handed hitting. Load Moss up at first base and enjoy.

		Hunter Pence
		Daily Breakdown			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits			0.375	0.989	1.79%	0.430
		Last 7 Days Splits			0.387	1.032	3.23%	0.445
		Opp SP vs. LR			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Morales – LEFT			0.311	0.923	12.56%	0.409
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DS	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
1.273	1.146	$3,500	$8,860	$9,800	$4,900	$85,900	$7,900	$9,100

Hunter Pence

I am a fan of the Mariners tonight and I am also a fan of the Giants as noted with the Posey pick above. Morales had a good start against the Giants in Coors last time out but I really think it’s different this time. The Giants have a ton of solid right handed hitting which crushes lefties and Pence is one of them. Pence has been solid lately hitting for power and average and should be able to get to Morales who has allowed righties to hit him at a .927 OPS clip and has been horrible in the last 4 games. Load up Giants tonight.

		Robinson Cano
		Daily Breakdown			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits			0.297	0.739	0.99%	0.315
		Last 7 Days Splits			0.458	1.087	0.00%	0.463
		Opp SP vs. LR			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Lewis – RIGHT			0.312	0.852	5.95%	0.373
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DS	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
0.985	1.002	$3,700	$7,681	$11,150	$5,100	$81,300	$7,400	$9,700

Robinson Cano

My other play from the Mariners is Cano, and he’s one of the main reasons I really like them tonight. Cano’s price is still cheap on certain sites and after his 4 hit game last time out, he has really proven hes back to being the Robinson Cano we know except for the home runs. I like him to homer tonight in Texas against Colby Lewis who as noted above is struggling with his line drive rate and Cano is finally in a hitter’s park where he doesn’t have to hit it a mile to homer.

		Eric Hosmer
		Daily Breakdown			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits			0.313	0.767	0.87%	0.336
		Last 7 Days Splits			0.083	0.203	0.00%	0.099
		Opp SP vs. LR			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Rienzo – RIGHT			0.244	0.785	11.02%	0.346
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DS	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
1.082	1.014	$2,700	$6,007	$8,300	$3,700	$59,500	$6,500	$10,400

Eric Hosmer

Hosmer is a nice punt play for you guys who are trying to fade the big obvious plays tonight. Hosmer had a nice game last night and is super cheap everywhere. He gets to face Rienzo who has been OK but nothing spectacular. Rienzo has really struggled however against lefties allowing 4 of the 6 home runs and a .821 average. The Royals have the left handers to put guys on base and give Hosmer a chance to do some damage here.