Daily Batter Breakdown: Tuesday, July 28th

by Jon Schiller (Varncass) Last Updated 2015-07-31 12:20:57

Welcome to the Daily Batter Breakdown. Whenever there are at least eight games on the night slate, I’ll break down some of the best top tier hitters to target based on matchup.

The biggest split taken into account will be left/right, but each player card will also show park factors, player salaries on FanDuel and DraftKings among other sites, and then a description of why I’ll be targeting him.

		Russell Martin
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.272	0.801	2.21%	0.360
		Last 7 Days Splits		0.444	1.365	11.11%	0.554
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Morgan – LEFT		0.293	0.901	6.10%	0.388
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
0.948	0.000	$3,400	$9,650	$4,200	$75,600

Russell Martin

I will talk a bit below about Adam Morgan and why I think he is due to get shelled tonight, but even though Martin is not hitting with a ton of power against lefties, he is still managing a .405 wOBA by putting the ball in play consistently. Rogers Centre is one of the most homer friendly parks and Martin should only get a boost by having Tulo in the lineup, that is if he starts tonight. Martin is down there in catcher salary but is one of the top options.

		David Ortiz
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.265	0.896	7.09%	0.378
		Last 7 Days Splits		0.357	1.257	14.29%	0.527
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Samardzija – RIGHT		0.250	0.695	2.66%	0.305
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
1.107	0.000	$4,100	$10,650	$4,100	$79,900

David Ortiz

David Ortiz, along with Robinson Cano, have been a couple of the hottest hitters in the game. On DraftKings Ortiz’ price is extremely affordable at first base, if you cannot find room for anyone else there like Fielder or Teixeira. He has four homers in four games and is hitting the ball as well as anyone else and is finally back on track. Samardzija has allowed eight homers in 64-at bats against lefties this year and has given up almost a .330 wOBA to them too.

		Robinson Cano
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.307	0.850	3.28%	0.365
		Last 7 Days Splits		0.379	1.127	6.90%	0.472
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Godley – RIGHT		0.143	0.393	0.00%	0.200
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
0.930	0.000	$3,600	$10,150	$4,300	$71,500

Robinson Cano

I guess Cano is back. Hopping on his bandwagon two weeks ago was a great decision, and I really think there is more meat on the bone here. He is still below what I think his price will flatten out at and gets a great matchup here against Zachary Godley. Godley was solid in his first start, but now gets to face a Mariners team that is hot against righties, and Cano is boosting his wOBA against righties back to that .378 career number.

		Josh Donaldson
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.296	1.022	8.58%	0.433
		Last 7 Days Splits		0.292	1.024	8.33%	0.422
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Morgan – LEFT		0.293	0.901	6.10%	0.388
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
0.948	0.000	$4,700	$10,950	$5,800	$92,700

Josh Donaldson

Adam Morgan could not even handle the Rays lineup the other day, giving up three runs in 4.1 innings, so how is he going to handle a Blue Jays lineup which absolutely destroys lefties? I am not sure. Donaldson is ridiculous (.441 wOBA consistently against lefties) as we know, and despite the high tag he makes one of the best plays on the board tonight.

		Danny Valencia
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.321	0.836	2.17%	0.365
		Last 7 Days Splits		0.267	0.779	6.67%	0.339
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Morgan – LEFT		0.293	0.901	6.10%	0.388
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
0.948	0.000	$2,900	$6,550	$3,800	$64,400

Danny Valencia

Valencia’s price remains low despite continuing to have a .375 career mark against left-handed pitching. The Jays just traded for Tulo, so someone else is going to have to lead off after the departure of Reyes. We should get a better idea of how things will shake out soon, but Tulo only makes the Jays better against lefties. Tonight’s spot is against Adam Morgan tonight of the Phillies and the Jays are the biggest favorite on the board. No matter where Valencia hits, he should be a popular play tonight.

		Gregory Polanco
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.259	0.723	1.87%	0.318
		Last 7 Days Splits		0.267	0.79	3.33%	0.338
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Pelfrey – RIGHT		0.255	0.745	2.16%	0.334
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
1.107	0.000	$2,500	$7,850	$4,200	$62,700

Gregory Polanco

Polanco has been much better lately, especially when considering his price on FanDuel. He continues to make contact and is leading off for a resurgent offense in the Pirates. Polanco can really only hit right-handers, so it is a good thing he is hitting against Pelfrey, who has a 5.25 xFIP against lefties. The Pirates are solid favorites here and have a nice team total, so picking a power/speed combo guy at the top of the lineup for almost free sounds like a great idea.

		Jorge Soler
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.243	0.644	0.00%	0.281
		Last 7 Days Splits		0.250	0.644	0.00%	0.277
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Flande – LEFT		0.280	0.775	2.00%	0.335
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
0.779	0.000	$2,400	$7,550	$3,600	$51,500

Jorge Soler

Soler is so cheap across the industry, and while he has not really broken out yet to cause that salary to rise, it is not like he is not producing at all. He has had multi-hit games and is hitting in the middle of the Cubs lineup, which is projected as one of the highest scoring against Yohan Flande. Not a lot of the numbers are matching up for Soler except for his cheap price, but all of them revolve around small sample sizes, and I think he does some solid damage tonight in Wrigley.

		Gerardo Parra
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.291	0.767	2.16%	0.332
		Last 7 Days Splits		0.381	1.03	0.00%	0.442
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Cain – RIGHT		0.247	0.745	3.53%	0.331
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
0.774	0.000	$3,400	$7,600	$3,400	$58,000

Gerardo Parra

Watch for Parra to be traded soon, so he may be a little bit risky to put into a lineup, but I still like him against Matt Cain tonight. I would sell high as well on him, as his .374 wOBA against righties is a career high and he has been one of the hottest hitters in the game at points of the season this year. I am not a fan of Matt Cain yet, as his xFIP does not show the numbers that he has had when he was a stud pitcher, and I think the lower velocity is really hurting him.

		Alex Rodriguez
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.261	1.008	9.09%	0.423
		Last 7 Days Splits		0.278	1.278	22.22%	0.507
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Perez – LEFT		0.299	0.804	1.13%	0.355
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
1.085	0.000	$4,000	$10,250	$5,200	$85,500

Alex Rodriguez

Rodriguez is one of the hottest hitters (against both splits) coming into this game against Perez tonight. His price is up there but his .430 wOBA against left-handers makes him worth it in this lineup, and this game is one of the highest scoring on the slate. He hit third in last night’s game and hit a homer, and he has a great chance to take Perez deep tonight. Perez has not been good against righties this year in the small amount of time he has pitched, and his xFIP and career numbers do not indicate he will be a lights out pitcher any time soon.