Daily Batter Breakdown: Tuesday, June 16th

by Jon Schiller (Varncass) Last Updated 2015-06-18 14:36:20

Welcome to the Daily Batter Breakdown. Whenever there are at least eight games on the night slate, I’ll break down some of the best top tier hitters to target based on matchup.

The biggest split taken into account will be left/right, but each player card will also show park factors, player salaries on FanDuel and DraftKings among other sites, and then a description of why I’ll be targeting him.

		Jonathan Lucroy
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.288	0.795	2.45%	0.351
		Last 7 Days Splits		0.160	0.352	0.00%	0.162
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Young – RIGHT		0.180	0.589	3.38%	0.258
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
1.410	0.000	$2,500	$5,750	$3,800	$61,900

Jonathan Lucroy

Does anyone believe that Lucroy’s price is going to stay around this number? The consensus would be no, as Lucroy spent most of last season 50% more expensive than this number – his career numbers are all above the .275 wOBA and a .091 ISO he is sporting this year (against righties). He has been even worse against lefties, which is extremely surprising considering he has smashed lefties in his career. Lucroy’s numbers are going to head upwards sooner rather than later, and with him hitting at the top of the lineup, he makes a great bargain at this price.

		Lucas Duda
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.265	0.886	5.91%	0.382
		Last 7 Days Splits		0.313	0.892	0.00%	0.379
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Copeland – Right		0.190	0.673	0.00%	0.291
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
1.035	0.000	$3,300	$8,750	$4,500	$77,100

Lucas Duda

The jury is still out on Scott Copeland, who has quickly made his way up the ranks and had a fairly successful first start in the majors. He does not strike anyone out though, and Duda owns a .356 wOBA this year and is a monster against right-handed pitching. Duda is starting to heat up and is extremely cheap on both sites. The Mets need him to be at his best right now and I really like his potential tonight.

		Chris Davis
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.201	0.728	5.91%	0.318
		Last 7 Days Splits		0.318	0.855	4.55%	0.379
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Williams – RIGHT		0.292	0.774	1.95%	0.343
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
1.282	0.000	$3,300	$9,200	$4,500	$66,900

Chris Davis

I love the Davis/Machado stacks in my lineups when they are playing a right-hander. With Williams actually being worse against righties this year, it gives Machado a little bit of a boost, but it also helps Davis because Williams has been garbage against lefties in his career. The problem with Davis is that he has a terrible mark in the last two years against righties, but I am still waiting for that BABIP to come up. Davis has been a bit better this year but still brings a ton of power and is a great GPP play.

		Scooter Gennett
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.296	0.772	2.15%	0.333
		Last 7 Days Splits		0.357	0.971	0.00%	0.417
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Young – RIGHT		0.245	0.765	3.94%	0.337
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
1.410	0.000	$2,200	$5,000	$3,400	$37,400

Scooter Gennett

Scooter is back in the lineup for the Brewers and is bringing a much needed left-handed bat. The Brewers have been one of the worst offenses in the majors according to wRC+ against both sides, and Gennett can only help after Weeks was DFA’ed. He is min salary on FanDuel and also $3,400 on DraftKings Gennett’s BABIP is very low this year, which impacted his .237 wOBA since he has a .352 career wOBA against righties. Chris Young has been great against righties this year, but he has a career 5 xFIP and relies on BABIP to get guys out.

		Manny Machado
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.289	0.810	4.37%	0.353
		Last 7 Days Splits		0.458	1.269	8.33%	0.541
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Williams – RIGHT		0.295	0.000		0.360
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
1.282	0.000	$3,500	$10,200	$4,800	$85,100

Manny Machado

Machado should be extremely popular again tonight. He had a poor game despite stealing a base and I think we all expected more from a guy who was so hot coming into the game. Despite his high price today, I still like him against Jerome Williams, especially considering that Williams has a .411 wOBA allowed to righties this year. He has been giving up a ton of homers and I would really be surprised if Machado didn’t jack one out tonight, especially with his reverse splits taken into account.

		Eugenio Suarez
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits
		Last 7 Days Splits
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD

Eugenio Suarez

At min salary on FanDuel and extremely cheap on DraftKings, I really like Suarez night as an under-the-radar play against the Tigers. Suarez is not a great hitter but he has been hitting at the top of the Reds lineup. He has a “revenge game” as well, if you guys are into that stuff. The Tigers have been struggling filling the fifth spot in their rotation, and even though Ryan has not been horrible to start the season, he has a ridiculously low BABIP and I have not been impressed with his stuff.

		Kole Calhoun
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.277	0.775	3.57%	0.339
		Last 7 Days Splits		0.375	0.917	4.17%	0.398
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Hellickson – RIGHT		0.259	0.755	2.79%	0.329
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
0.888	0.000	$2,800	$8,500	$4,300	$66,900

Kole Calhoun

The Angels are huge favorites today, and with Calhoun being one of the cheapest outfielders on FanDuel, I think he is one of the best plays today. Hellickson has allowed a .412 wOBA and 5.43 xFIP against lefties, and Calhoun has been one of the better hitters in the majors against right-handed pitching. With the Angels being huge favorites and facing a poor pitcher on the mound, I love Calhoun today, especially since he should be hitting in the middle of the lineup.

		Joc Pederson
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.227	0.890	7.57%	0.384
		Last 7 Days Splits		0.125	0.542	0.00%	0.305
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Chi Gonzalez – Right
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
1.107	0.000	$3,800	$8,400	$4,600	$62,500

Joc Pederson

Pederson’s salary continues to come down – with him facing Gonzalez today, I am going to be targeting him. I will talk a little bit more about Gonzalez below, but even though he has been good to start the year, he has a poor xFIP and a BABIP, which indicates that a ton of regression is coming. Pederson can help that with his ability to hit homers, especially in a hitter’s park like Globe Life. The Dodgers are the top hitting team in the majors against righties and Gonzalez may be in for a struggle today.

		Andre Ethier
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.266	0.777	2.70%	0.340
		Last 7 Days Splits		0.368	1.189	10.53%	0.502
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Chi Gonzalez – Right
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
1.107	0.000	$3,200	$7,700	$3,600	$61,900

Andre Ethier

Ethier is one of the hottest hitters in the majors right now, especially against right-handers. He has a .398 wOBA this year against righties and a .258 ISO against them as well. Ethier has continuously hit right-handers well in his career, and while Gonzalez has been great this year, the Dodgers are still huge favorites with a nice over/under. I am still targeting the Dodgers lefties against Gonzalez here, as his BABIP makes him due for a regression, and I think the Dodgers are going to be the ones to take him down.

		Denard Span
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits
		Last 7 Days Splits		0.348	0.835	0.00%	0.369
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		* – *
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
	0.000	$3,100	$8,550	$4,200	$76,600

Denard Span

Span, in my opinion, is one of the least underappreciated fantasy players out there with his speed/power combo against right-handers. He has one of the highest upsides on the board and has a .391 wOBA this year against righties. His power has increased this year and Colome has not exactly been the best guy in his career against lefties either, with a 5+ xFIP in his first two years. He has improved against lefties this year but has now allowed a few homers to them. He is not the greatest pitcher to target, but I love Span’s upside.