Daily Batter Breakdown: Tuesday, June 30th

by Jon Schiller (Varncass) Last Updated 2015-07-06 13:49:35

Welcome to the Daily Batter Breakdown. Whenever there are at least eight games on the night slate, I’ll break down some of the best top tier hitters to target based on matchup.

The biggest split taken into account will be left/right, but each player card will also show park factors, player salaries on FanDuel and DraftKings among other sites, and then a description of why I’ll be targeting him.

		Derek Norris
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.312	0.866	2.93%	0.379
		Last 7 Days Splits		0.182	0.763	9.09%	0.322
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Montgomery – LEFT
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
0.983	0.000	$3,100	$7,550	$3,700	$61,900

Derek Norris

There are really only three or four games where I am targeting batters today, since there are a ton of good pitchers on the slate compared to last night. Norris is one of the “other” guys from a different game. He is dirt cheap everywhere, most likely due to him hitting in Petco against a pitcher who has not been all that bad. However, against lefties Norris has a .379 wOBA and 147 wRC+. Those are great numbers no matter who you are facing, and I will take the chance on Montgomery’s regression from his .216 wOBA allowed to righties because of his .222 BABIP. Norris has power, and while it is hard to hit one out in Petco, this is a good matchup for doing just that.

		Billy Butler
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.287	0.802	3.08%	0.351
		Last 7 Days Splits		0.077	0.448	0.00%	0.238
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		De La Rosa – LEFT		0.242	0.751	3.25%	0.331
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
1.000	0.000	$2,200	$7,050	$3,300	$56,400

Billy Butler

Butler’s numbers are extremely odd. He is hitting terribly against left-handers in his career and is just really struggling in general. I still think he has the ability to break out, and at $2,200 on FanDuel and $3,300 on DraftKings, he should be extremely low owned with all of the other great 1B options out there. Considering Butler’s .385 career wOBA against right-handers and the fact that De La Rosa has allowed a .347 career wOBA to right-handers (along with a 4.47 xFIP), he is a solid play in my mind despite the price. His cheapness just makes it that much better.

		Dee Gordon
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.305	0.724	0.28%	0.318
		Last 7 Days Splits		0.320	0.72	0.00%	0.313
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Vogelsong – RIGHT		0.277	0.807	3.57%	0.353
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
0.878	0.000	$3,000	$7,800	$4,600	$61,800

Dee Gordon

Anytime Gordon is hitting against a righty, he has to be in play to some extent. He has fallen of the map a bit lately, but with three stolen base attempts in his last four games, he could be back on the right track. Gordon has major run potential and huge fantasy point potential, just as we saw Hamilton steal four bags from the leadoff position last night. Vogelsong has been decent lately, but his .372 wOBA allowed to lefties is great news for Gordon. He does not have power, but he has a .342 average against lefties and you are just hoping he gets on base and swipes a few.

		Jake Lamb
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.264	0.727	2.75%	0.318
		Last 7 Days Splits		0.333	0.857	4.76%	0.37
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Frias – RIGHT
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
1.121	0.000		$6,900	$3,800

Jake Lamb

Frias has been flat out poor against lefties this year, with a 4.92 xFIP and a .402 wOBA allowed. He just cannot cannot get them out and is not striking them out either. That is great news for the Diamondbacks lefties, who will go into this game looking to capitalize on the great park advantage. Lamb has cooled off since the DL but did hit a homer a couple of days ago and looks to get back on track today against a guy who struggles against lefties. Lamb is hitting in the middle of the lineup and is cheap today.

		Brandon Crawford
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.228	0.685	2.41%	0.296
		Last 7 Days Splits		0.238	0.956	4.76%	0.395
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Latos – RIGHT		0.262	0.702	2.26%	0.308
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
0.878	0.000	$3,100	$8,500	$3,800	$70,100

Brandon Crawford

Crawford seems to go under the radar a lot at the shortstop position, despite being one of the best producers at that position in the majors. His price on DraftKings is a steal, as you get a top producer for cheap money in one of the hardest positions to find reliable options. Crawford has been killing lefties but does own a .335 wOBA against right-handers. Latos has allowed a .366 wOBA against lefties and has had an issue getting them out this year. Latos should come back to his career numbers at some point, but I would like to take a chance against him while he still struggles.

		Manny Machado
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.296	0.834	4.64%	0.363
		Last 7 Days Splits		0.320	0.93	4.00%	0.389
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Lewis – RIGHT		0.262	0.750	4.00%	0.326
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
1.190	0.000	$4,300	$10,750	$4,700	$85,500

Manny Machado

Lewis has been great against right-handers this year, which is extremely surprising, but this is more about Machado than anything else. We have a great park, one of the highest over/unders of the night and Machado, who is beasting against RHP this year. His .382 wOBA, .226 ISO and 154 wRC+ are all career highs, and he is locked in right now. The price is high, and he was popular last night so I would expect him to be popular tonight, but hitting at the top of the Orioles lineup is nice for his fantasy potential and he’s been killing it at the plate.

		Brock Holt
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.283	0.735	1.15%	0.327
		Last 7 Days Splits		0.083	0.269	0.00%	0.142
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Estrada – RIGHT		0.223	0.685	4.17%	0.302
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
0.956	0.000	$3,200	$6,250	$3,500	$57,800

Brock Holt

Estrada has been fantastic in the last two games and I doubt a ton of people are going to be on the Red Sox bats, which is just fine with me. We have one of the easiest areas to hit homers in in the Rogers Centre, and despite Estrada almost throwing a no-no here recently, I like Holt as a GPP play. Vegas still has the Red Sox at a 4 over/under even though Estrada has been lights out in the last two games, and Holt’s .361 wOBA against right-handers is nothing to scoff at this year. Holt has been hitting high in the lineup, and when Estrada returns to his homer-prone ways tonight, Holt will be there to capitalize.

		Jose Bautista
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.329	1.046	7.45%	0.446
		Last 7 Days Splits		0.050	0.469	5.00%	0.239
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Rodriguez – LEFT		0.220	0.617	2.00%	0.279
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
0.956	0.000	$4,900	$11,500	$5,200	$90,800

Jose Bautista

On the other side of the coin, we have the cold as ice Jose Bautista going up against everyone’s favorite pitcher punt of a month ago. Rodriguez has run into some trouble, and even though his numbers are great, he is pitching in a tough park. Bautista has not had much exposure to lefties this year but when he does he has a .416 wOBA and has absolutely crushed the ball. His power numbers are off the charts against lefties; with a lot of people likely going elsewhere for power because of his poor history, he makes a great bounce back candidate today.

		Joc Pederson
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.235	0.904	7.24%	0.391
		Last 7 Days Splits		0.136	0.614	4.55%	0.284
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		De La Rosa – RIGHT
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
1.121	0.000	$3,500	$9,100	$4,300	$74,700

Joc Pederson

He was great last night, so let us go again and hope we have hit a hot streak. We have dueling De La Rosas (although it would be better if they were facing each other), and with both of them struggling against their opposite handed counterparts, they are both able to be targeted here. Rubby has allowed a .389 wOBA to lefties with a 4.45 xFIP, and with Pederson having a .405 wOBA against righties, I see no reason to stop using him here.

		Chris Young
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.262	0.852	4.96%	0.366
		Last 7 Days Splits		0.393	1.076	7.14%	0.463
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Heaney – LEFT		0.284	0.000		0.383
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
0.889	0.000	$6,300	$7,750	$4,500	$92,300

Chris Young

Heaney was great in the one game he pitched previously this year, but I am going back to the well with Chris Young. He is still cheap across the industry and him hitting in the top two of the lineup yesterday was great news. He of course did not do so well, but I will continue using him against lefties and take that .479 wOBA he has this year with the 217 wRC+. Those numbers will come down, but he is still an elite hitter against lefties and should be considered at his extremely low price.