Daily Pitcher Breakdown: April 10th
In this article I’ll break down in-depth starting pitcher stats and color code them so you can see which players you should be targeting and avoiding today based on some sabermetrics and other stats that I have created based on studying the starting pitcher position.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in White are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
For a description of each stat below and the tiers used for them, check out this pop up window FAQ Page by clicking here
Performance and Talent Statistics: April 10th, 2013
NOTE: Venue and Secondary color-coded stats can be found after the pitcher breakdown portion of the article
| PLAYER | PERFORMANCE | TALENT | |||||||||
| PITCHER | TM | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | IMP% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Floyd | CWS | 168 | 4.29 | 4.07 | 1.36 | 41.4% | 24.1% | 19.9% | 8.7% | 1.18 | 1.36 |
| Zimmermann | WAS | 195.7 | 2.94 | 3.8 | 1.17 | 62.5% | 0.0% | 19.0% | 5.3% | 0.83 | 1.3 |
| Nova | NYY | 170.3 | 5.02 | 3.84 | 1.47 | 39.3% | 32.1% | 20.5% | 7.5% | 1.48 | 1.4 |
| TBD | CLE | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Hefner | NYM | 93.7 | 5.09 | 4.1 | 1.37 | 38.5% | 30.8% | 15.2% | 4.4% | 0.86 | 1.2 |
| Kendrick | PHI | 159.3 | 3.9 | 4.19 | 1.27 | 48.0% | 24.0% | 17.2% | 7.3% | 1.13 | 1.3 |
| Minor (L) | ATL | 179.3 | 4.12 | 4.12 | 1.15 | 40.0% | 16.7% | 19.9% | 7.7% | 1.3 | 0.81 |
| Sanabia | MIA | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | DNP | IN 2012 | – |
| Arrieta | BAL | 114.7 | 6.2 | 3.59 | 1.37 | 33.3% | 38.9% | 22.0% | 7.1% | 1.26 | 1.35 |
| Dempster | BOS | 173 | 3.38 | 3.77 | 1.2 | 60.7% | 17.9% | 21.3% | 7.3% | 0.99 | 1.22 |
| Hendriks | MIN | 85.3 | 5.59 | 4.75 | 1.55 | 25.0% | 19.0% | 13.1% | 6.8% | 1.79 | 1.17 |
| Davis | KC | 70.3 | 2.43 | 2.79 | 1.09 | RP in ’12 | 0.0% | 30.6% | 10.2% | 0.64 | 0.97 |
| Lohse | MIL | 211 | 2.86 | 4.06 | 1.09 | 63.6% | 12.1% | 16.6% | 4.4% | 0.81 | 1.14 |
| Feldman | CHC | 123.7 | 5.09 | 3.95 | 1.38 | 19.0% | 19.0% | 17.9% | 6.0% | 1.02 | 1.33 |
| Milone (L) | OAK | 190 | 3.74 | 4.02 | 1.28 | 51.6% | 22.6% | 17.3% | 4.6% | 1.14 | 1.02 |
| Blanton | LAA | 191 | 4.71 | 3.45 | 1.26 | 33.3% | 26.7% | 20.6% | 4.2% | 1.37 | 1.39 |
| Peacock | HOU | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | DNP | IN 2012 | – |
| Beavan | SEA | 152.3 | 4.43 | 4.92 | 1.26 | 26.9% | 19.2% | 10.5% | 3.8% | 1.36 | 0.88 |
| Billingsley | LAD | 149.7 | 3.55 | 3.83 | 1.29 | 44.0% | 8.0% | 20.2% | 7.1% | 0.66 | 1.37 |
| Stults (L) | SD | 99 | 2.91 | 4.65 | 1.2 | 40.0% | 6.7% | 13.3% | 6.5% | 0.64 | 1.19 |
Pitcher Breakdowns
- Unsurprisingly, former division foe Denard Span makes up 49% of the PA that Floyd has against the Nats. Spans owns him, too, going 17-for-35 (.486 AVG) with four doubles in 38 PA – good for an 1100 OPS.
- Seven current White Sox have posted a .208 AVG and 417 OPS against Zimmermann with Alex Rios topping the list with 6 PA. He has a pair of singles.
- Mark Reynolds is just 3-for-15 (.200 AVG) with 3 BB in 18 PA against Nova. Two of his three hits are doubles and he also has five strikeouts.
- Carlos Santana is just 1-for-2, but it was a homer.
- The Phillies are 6-for-13 (.462 AVG) in an almost-worthless 14 PA sample against Hefner. He’s essentially going in cold.
- The star of the Mets has done star-like things against Kendrick. David Wright is 11-for-31 (.355 AVG) with 2 2B and 2 HR yielding a gaudy 995 OPS in 34 total PA.
- Even with Wright’s damage, the current Mets have hit just .211 with a 623 OPS in 126 PA against Kendrick.
- Expect Minor to do what everyone has been worried about in Miami: pitch around Giancarlo Stanton. No current Marlin has logged even 10 PA against Minor, but Stanton is 2-for-6 with a pair of homers plus three walks yielding an absurd 1889 OPS.
- Sanabia didn’t pitch in the majors in 2012 and logged just 11 innings in 2011 so his recent experience is scant which shows in his numbers vs. current Braves as nine of the 16 PA are against Jason Heyward (4-for-8 with a walk).
- The bad news: eight of the 10 Red Sox to log a PA against Arrieta have a 1000 or better OPS. The good news: they are all tiny samples with “Dustin Pedroia(player-profile)”:/players/Dustin_Pedroia-10375’s 11 PA leading the charge.
- More bad news: six of the players have a homer against him including Pedroia, Jacoby Ellsbury (2), Daniel Nava, Mike Napoli, Shane Victorino, and David Ross.
- A pair of former NL Central foes have vastly different histories against Dempster as J.J. Hardy (30 PA) and Nate McLouth (25) make up 74% of the PAs against him. Hardy has a .074 AVG and 215 OPS with 7 K. McLouth is hitting .300 with a 990 OPS including a homer and two doubles among his six hits.
- Nobody else has more than a game’s worth of data (3-4 PA) against him with Adam Jones faring best at 2-for-3 (2 singles).
- It’s only a combined 57 PA spread across nine guys (max is 9 PA for two guys), but the Royals have crushed Hendriks to the tune of a .400 AVG and 912 OPS.
- Both Billy Butler (9 PA) and Mike Moustakas (6 PA) have five hits while Salvador Perez (7 PA) has four and several others have a pair of knocks including Jeff Francoeur going 2-for-2. Surprisingly no one has a home run.
- Fitting that only the four most important Twins hitters have even faced Davis. Joe Mauer has pasted him, going 4-for-5 with a pair of doubles and a walk in 6 PA. Justin Morneau is 1-for-7, but it was a homer and he also has a walk. Josh Willingham and Ryan Doumit are a combined 2-for-4. All told, it’s not much.
- Alfonso Soriano has rocked Lohse in 58 PA with a .357 AVG and 1022 OPS including 4 HR and 4 2B among his 20 hits. He’s been even better the last two years when Lohse has been great with a 1214 OPS in 14 PA including 2 of those 4 HR.
- David DeJesus has his number, too, and could be a sneaky play today. He has a .462 AVG (12-for-26) with an 1174 OPS.
- The only Brewer to top 10 PA against Feldman is Yuniesky Betancourt, who has a .313 AVG going 5-for-16 with a couple doubles.
Tommy Milone
- Nine current Angels have faced Milone in his short career and eight of them have hits (way to go, Peter Bourjos, cool 0-for-5). Josh Hamilton (9 PA), Albert Pujols (8), and Erick Aybar (7) have four hits apiece while Howard Kendrick (8), Alberto Callaspo (5), and Mike Trout (5) have a pair of hits apiece.
- While homers are an issue for Milone, only Hamilton has taken him out of the yard.
- While Blanton has excellent numbers in Angels Stadium, he hasn’t thrown there since 2007 as those numbers were built when he was with the A’s.
- Despite a decade-long career, Blanton has just 36 PA against the young pups that make up his former team. He has crushed the five guys he has faced with a .152 AVG and 495, albeit in a tiny, tiny sample.
- Coco Crisp is on fire right now, but he could be running into a buzzsaw as he is just 2-for-15 (.133) against Blanton.
- Peacock struggled a bit in his season debut lasting just 4.3 IP and allowing two runs and six base runners, but he did fan five in Oakland. He gets another nice venue to pitch in and hopefully he can net a better result, but I’d stand by and just watch this one for now.
- Brandon Maurer showed the dangers of blindly starting anyone against the Astros and Beavan isn’t much better, so tread cautiously.
- It’s going to be especially interesting to see how Beavan and his meager 10% K rate fare against the strikeout-happy Astros.
- Will Venable has a chance to stay hot (2-for-3 w/a 3B, HR, 2 BB, and 4 RBI on Tuesday) as he faces a guy he has some success against with a .280 AVG (7-for-25) and 6 BB (.419 OBP) against Billingsley in 31 PA.
- Mark Kotsay will almost certainly find his way into the game via a pinch-hit opportunity if he doesn’t start as he is 4-for-5 against Billingsley for his career.
- “Adrian Gonzalez(player-profile)”:/players/Adrian_Gonzalez-10340’s 6 PA leads the way for current Dodgers. He is 2-for-5 with a double, a walk, and a strikeout.
- Andre Ethier is generally terrible against lefties, but he has a homer against Stults in 3 PA – a rarity.
In Venue Stats: April 10th, 2013
| PLAYER | IN VENUE (CAREER) | ||||||||
| PITCHER | TM | IP | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Floyd | CWS | 8 | 1.13 | 0.63 | 19% | 4% | 0.00 | ||
| Zimmermann | WAS | 240 | 3.68 | 1.23 | 17% | 6% | 1.01 | ||
| Nova | NYY | 178.3 | 4.95 | 1.48 | 16% | 9% | 1.31 | ||
| TBD | CLE | – | – | – | – | – | – | ||
| Hefner | NYM | – | – | – | – | – | – | ||
| Kendrick | PHI | 395.3 | 4.42 | 1.35 | 13% | 7% | 1.27 | ||
| Minor (L) | ATL | 12 | 2.25 | 1.25 | 17% | 10% | 1.50 | ||
| Sanabia | MIA | – | – | – | – | – | – | ||
| Arrieta | BAL | 6.3 | 8.53 | 2.05 | 9% | 16% | 2.86 | ||
| Dempster | BOS | 16.3 | 6.06 | 1.65 | 16% | 9% | 2.76 | ||
| Hendriks | MIN | 66 | 4.64 | 1.39 | 16% | 6% | 1.91 | ||
| Davis | KC | 16 | 5.06 | 1.88 | 9% | 8% | 1.69 | ||
| Lohse | MIL | 25 | 4.32 | 1.28 | 21% | 7% | 1.08 | ||
| Feldman | CHC | – | – | – | – | – | – | ||
| Milone (L) | OAK | 5 | 3.60 | 1.60 | 13% | 4% | 0.00 | ||
| Blanton | LAA | 48.3 | 2.61 | 1.20 | 16% | 4% | 0.19 | ||
| Peacock | HOU | – | – | – | – | – | – | ||
| Beavan | SEA | 129.3 | 4.18 | 1.22 | 10% | 4% | 1.39 | ||
| Billingsley | LAD | 84 | 2.36 | 1.05 | 23% | 9% | 0.54 | ||
| Stults (L) | SD | 41.7 | 3.46 | 1.30 | 15% | 7% | 1.08 | ||