Daily Pitcher Breakdown: April 14th
The Daily Pitcher Breakdown goes in-depth to look at nearly every pitching option, with a focus on the best targets for each night. Sometimes there will be a best of the rest section featuring guys who are likely low-dollar options with some upside for those of you who prefer to load your lineup with hitting studs.
There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in White are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ
Daily Pitcher Chart
| Pitcher | TM | OPP | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santana | ATL | PHI | 8 | 0.00 | 2.25 | 0.38 | 56.3% | 22.2% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| Hernandez | PHI | ATL | 10.1 | 4.35 | 2.37 | 1.19 | 20.8% | 31.1% | 4.4% | 1.74 | 1.50 |
| Archer | TBR | BAL | 13 | 1.38 | 3.46 | 1.08 | 52.2% | 21.6% | 7.8% | 0.00 | 2.22 |
| Chen | BAL | TBR | 10.2 | 6.75 | 3.80 | 2.06 | 30.4% | 15.7% | 0.0% | 0.84 | 1.00 |
| Rodriguez | PIT | CIN | 11 | 5.73 | 3.70 | 1.64 | 41.7% | 22.0% | 8.0% | 2.45 | 1.50 |
| Bailey | CIN | PIT | 9.1 | 7.71 | 3.69 | 2.31 | 50.0% | 17.0% | 10.6% | 1.93 | 10.00 |
| Zimmermann | WAS | MIA | 6.2 | 8.10 | 3.15 | 2.26 | 59.4% | 29.4% | 8.8% | 2.70 | 0.63 |
| Hand | MIA | WAS | 8.1 | 3.24 | 4.67 | 1.23 | 50.0% | 20.0% | 14.3% | 1.08 | 1.11 |
| Elias | SEA | TEX | 10 | 2.70 | 5.16 | 1.00 | 12.8% | 10.3% | 0.90 | 1.30 | |
| Lewis | TEX | SEA | |||||||||
| Lynn | STL | MIL | 11 | 6.55 | 3.42 | 1.55 | 51.5% | 21.2% | 1.9% | 1.64 | 0.75 |
| Garza | MIL | STL | 14 | 2.57 | 3.39 | 0.93 | 41.7% | 20.0% | 5.5% | 0.64 | 1.85 |
| Wheeler | NYM | ARI | 11 | 5.73 | 3.02 | 1.55 | 47.1% | 24.5% | 4.1% | 1.64 | 1.36 |
| Collmenter | ARI | NYM | 8 | 2.25 | 4.82 | 1.38 | 15.2% | 12.1% | 1.13 | 1.10 | |
| Chavez | OAK | LAA | 13 | 1.38 | 2.59 | 1.00 | 25.5% | 3.9% | 0.69 | 2.22 | |
| Santiago | LAA | OAK | 9.1 | 7.71 | 4.53 | 1.98 | 43.5% | 22.2% | 13.3% | 0.96 | 0.82 |
| Lyles | COL | SDP | 11.2 | 3.86 | 3.51 | 1.16 | 32.0% | 18.8% | 6.3% | 0.77 | 2.38 |
| Stults | SDP | COL | 9.2 | 5.59 | 5.39 | 1.63 | 45.5% | 9.1% | 6.8% | 1.86 | 0.94 |
Here is a look at the day’s slate of arms and how they might stack in their given matchups.
BEST BUYS:
These aren’t just low-cost guys with good matchups and/or venues, but you will also find expensive studs in here with great matchups. An ace facing another ace won’t find his way in here because the win probability for both is sliced significantly by facing each other.
Jordan Zimmermann, WAS (at MIA) – He had his worst start ever against the Marlins his last time. I would love for that to dissuade people from using him today. I just can’t see him not bouncing back in a big way against the Marlins.
Ervin Santana, ATL (at PHI) – I thought he’d be a little limited in his first outing and he kinda was as he threw just 88 pitches, but it took him through eight scoreless innings as he allowed just three hits with zero walks. As long as he doesn’t let Chase Utley get him, this offense isn’t particularly threatening.
Chris Archer, TB (at BAL) – Archer looks great early on with two big starts including that no-decision duel against Yordano Ventura. He gets the O’s at the right time as they sit 20th in the league against righties with a .300 wOBA.
GOOD BUYS:
This is where a lot of the high-priced big arms with decent or worse matchups will reside. Any top arm can thwart even the toughest lineup, but it’s not always the most sensible buy when they are among the most costly arms on the board. This is also where the ace v. ace matchups will be as they still have the potential for a big score, but just lack the high probability of the ever-important win.
Eric Stults, SD (v. COL) – Stults is a home-only guy. His OPS-against dropped from 810 on the road to 637 at home last year while his ERA was markedly better, too, going from 4.77 to 3.06 with about 100 IP in both samples.
Matt Garza, MIL (v. STL) – The Cards offense has been sluggish to start the season, while Garza looks very strong after a pair of starts. His slider has been dominant, holding batters to an 0-for-11 mark with just one walk. The Cards have a meager .248 wOBA against righty sliders with a 39% strikeout rate. It’s high time the Brewers offense gives Garza some support, too, as he’s 0-1 after two strong starts despite being on the 10-2 Brewers.
Jesse Chavez, OAK (at LAA) – I’ve been markedly impressed with this transition for Chavez. I didn’t see it coming and hats off to the A’s. Not only are his results excellent, but the stuff has backed it up with a 26% strikeout rate and just 4% walk rate. The Angels aren’t an easy offense, but Chavez is still dirt-cheap at several outlets and worth a gamble against this worthy opponent.
USE CAUTION:
Zack Wheeler, NYM (at ARI) – He’s not off to a great start through two starts, but his 12/2 K/BB ratio in 11 IP is definitely encouraging. He’s better than we’ve seen and I’m certain he will stop allowing 12.3 hits per nine sooner than later. Wheeler isn’t a great option at Chase Field, but the upside is there so if the price is right, take a shot.
Homer Bailey, CIN (v. PIT) / Wandy Rodriguez, PIT (at CIN) – Strong chance of rain drops this pair down into the caution area. Bailey’s obviously off to a rough start, but I’m not giving up hope on him. If the forecast clears up, I would be more open to using him specifically. Rodriguez isn’t a bad option as the Reds offense hasn’t done much of anything against lefties and their best batters are also southpaws.
Colby Lewis, TEX (v. SEA) – The Mariners have come back to earth (26th in wOBA v. righties), but Lewis hasn’t pitched in the majors since 2012 so I’m not sure we’re going to see him go deep into the game short of an Ervin Santana-esque domination that allows him to accumulate innings on a small pitch count.
Lance Lynn, STL (at MIL) – At this point, I’m just generally wary of the Brewers against just about anyone. I wouldn’t be rushing out to start an elite tier arm against them and Lynn isn’t that, so we could see another blasé effort from the righty. He’s got an ugly 6.55 ERA, but an 11/1 K/BB ratio in 11 IP. I’m investing long-term, but not today in Milwaukee.
Wei-Yin Chen, BAL (v. TB) – Chen has a nice 8/0 K/BB ratio, but maybe he’d be better off walking a guy or two because he might be hitting the zone a bit too much! He’s in the zone a career-high 56% of the time and he’s just been too hittable to live there that often. The Rays aren’t a threatening offense, particularly against lefties (.245 wOBA ranks 27th), but Chen could make them look a good bit better if his command in the zone doesn’t improve.
Hector Santiago, LAA (v. OAK) – I had relatively high hopes for Santiago shifting over to LA this year and they aren’t exactly dashed after just two starts, but his command and control have been absolutely rotten thus far. I like that he’s still striking out a batter per inning (more in fact at 9.6 K9), but everything else has been unimpressive. There are better options, even on a light slate.
Jordan Lyles, COL (at SD) – I have very little confidence in him, but he’s made me look silly through two starts. The only reason he made the caution pool is because it’s in San Diego against the meager Padres offense. I still don’t feel comfortable, but maybe as a dirt-cheap third option.
NOT AT ALL CONFIDENT, HERE’S WHY:
Roberto Hernandez, PHI (v. ATL) – I’m actually moderately impressed by his 14 Ks in 10.3 IP and 1.16 WHIP and yet I’m terrified at the idea of ever using him, let alone against a powerful offense that may be prone to cold streaks, but capable of always leaving the yard.
Roenis Elias, SEA (at TEX) – I’m still skeptical… he’s been fine in his two starts, but I just can’t throw him out there in Texas.
Josh Collmenter, ARI (v. NYM) – He’s usually good for 3-4 innings, but I’m not high on him returning to the rotation.
Brad Hand, MIA (v. WAS) – Can he rebound after they crushed him last time out? Is there really any upside to gamble on him turning it around?
Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against
| Pitcher | wOBA vs L | ERA vs L | wOBA vs R | ERA vs R | AVG | OPS | BABIP | FIP | AVG-A | Pit/G | Strk% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santana | 0.296 | 2.80 | 0.284 | 3.61 | 0.248 | 0.683 | 0.143 | 1.68 | 0.111 | 88.00 | 73.9% |
| Hernandez | 0.386 | 5.87 | 0.309 | 3.97 | 0.234 | 0.652 | 0.296 | 3.57 | 0.233 | 88.50 | 68.4% |
| Archer | 0.335 | 4.09 | 0.221 | 1.67 | 0.258 | 0.664 | 0.278 | 2.42 | 0.213 | 94.50 | 63.5% |
| Chen | 0.323 | 3.65 | 0.346 | 4.50 | 0.174 | 0.523 | 0.476 | 2.90 | 0.412 | 100.00 | 65.5% |
| Rodriguez | 0.344 | 4.60 | 0.322 | 3.75 | 0.178 | 0.498 | 0.344 | 5.82 | 0.304 | 96.00 | 61.5% |
| Bailey | 0.345 | 4.06 | 0.262 | 3.38 | 0.233 | 0.687 | 0.438 | 5.86 | 0.381 | 96.00 | 59.9% |
| Zimmermann | 0.317 | 3.63 | 0.270 | 3.23 | 0.284 | 0.792 | 0.500 | 5.88 | 0.367 | 69.00 | 66.7% |
| Hand | 0.257 | 2.70 | 0.253 | 3.32 | 0.273 | 0.790 | 0.182 | 4.86 | 0.167 | 47.00 | 62.4% |
| Elias | 0.202 | 0.295 | 3.68 | 0.333 | 0.898 | 0.179 | 4.98 | 0.176 | 85.50 | 58.5% | |
| Lewis | 0.209 | 0.656 | |||||||||
| Lynn | 0.352 | 5.42 | 0.289 | 3.27 | 0.290 | 0.793 | 0.378 | 4.09 | 0.32 | 109.00 | 67.4% |
| Garza | 0.319 | 3.81 | 0.300 | 3.67 | 0.243 | 0.692 | 0.225 | 3.18 | 0.192 | 93.00 | 70.4% |
| Wheeler | 0.353 | 4.75 | 0.291 | 2.86 | 0.272 | 0.732 | 0.394 | 3.91 | 0.319 | 105.00 | 65.7% |
| Collmenter | 0.298 | 3.12 | 0.303 | 3.09 | 0.199 | 0.601 | 0.261 | 5.06 | 0.241 | 28.25 | 63.7% |
| Chavez | 0.294 | 3.72 | 0.258 | 3.13 | 0.237 | 0.704 | 0.286 | 2.65 | 0.224 | 92.50 | 65.4% |
| Santiago | 0.323 | 3.40 | 0.342 | 4.05 | 0.127 | 0.414 | 0.407 | 4.68 | 0.316 | 88.50 | 59.3% |
| Lyles | 0.333 | 6.09 | 0.366 | 4.82 | 0.240 | 0.628 | 0.265 | 3.78 | 0.227 | 92.00 | 61.4% |
| Stults | 0.251 | 3.71 | 0.342 | 4.08 | 0.309 | 0.847 | 0.286 | 5.98 | 0.293 | 79.00 | 63.3% |
Starting Pitcher Salaries
Click the image below to view pitcher salaries by each daily fantasy site along with their percent of top statistics.
- Percent of Top (Top) – Player salary divided by the most expensive pitcher each day. So if Felix Hernandez is $9,000 on FanDuel and Justin Verlander is $4,500, Verlanders Top stat would be 50.
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