Daily Pitcher Breakdown: April 15th
The Daily Pitcher Breakdown goes in-depth to look at nearly every pitching option, with a focus on the best targets for each night. Sometimes there will be a best of the rest section featuring guys who are likely low-dollar options with some upside for those of you who prefer to load your lineup with hitting studs.
There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in White are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ
Daily Pitcher Chart
| Pitcher | TM | OPP | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hale | ATL | PHI | 9.1 | 2.89 | 5.95 | 1.87 | 50.0% | 14.3% | 16.7% | 0.00 | 1.38 |
| Lee | PHI | ATL | 18 | 5.50 | 3.19 | 1.67 | 58.1% | 18.3% | 1.2% | 0.50 | 1.88 |
| Hammel | CHC | NYY | 13.2 | 2.63 | 3.45 | 0.53 | 26.1% | 22.9% | 4.2% | 1.98 | 0.71 |
| Tanaka | NYY | CHC | 14 | 3.21 | 1.90 | 1.00 | 32.1% | 1.8% | 1.29 | 1.90 | |
| Odorizzi | TBR | BAL | 11 | 5.73 | 4.09 | 1.55 | 16.7% | 8.3% | 0.82 | 2.25 | |
| Gonzalez | BAL | TBR | 9.1 | 9.64 | 5.49 | 1.98 | 39.3% | 9.1% | 4.6% | 3.86 | 0.53 |
| McAllister | CLE | DET | 11.2 | 2.31 | 3.91 | 1.34 | 45.8% | 22.5% | 8.2% | 0.00 | 0.71 |
| Sanchez | DET | CLE | 9 | 3.00 | 3.93 | 1.33 | 62.1% | 23.7% | 10.5% | 0.00 | 1.10 |
| Cole | PIT | CIN | 13 | 3.46 | 3.01 | 1.15 | 57.9% | 24.1% | 7.4% | 0.69 | 3.00 |
| Leake | CIN | PIT | 14.2 | 2.45 | 4.05 | 0.92 | 51.6% | 11.1% | 7.4% | 1.23 | 2.90 |
| Strasburg | WAS | MIA | 17 | 4.24 | 2.26 | 1.29 | 53.3% | 36.8% | 7.9% | 1.06 | 1.20 |
| Koehler | MIA | WAS | 12 | 3.00 | 4.40 | 1.25 | 30.4% | 14.3% | 6.1% | 0.75 | 1.38 |
| Beavan | SEA | TEX | |||||||||
| Ross | TEX | SEA | 10.1 | 1.74 | 4.63 | 1.68 | 24.4% | 17.8% | 0.87 | 2.67 | |
| Ventura | KCR | HOU | 6 | 0.00 | 2.14 | 0.33 | 30.0% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 1.17 | |
| Harrell | HOU | KCR | 7.1 | 11.05 | 5.45 | 2.82 | 31.8% | 11.6% | 14.0% | 1.23 | 2.67 |
| Miller | STL | MIL | 11.1 | 6.35 | 5.44 | 1.71 | 38.7% | 13.7% | 11.8% | 3.18 | 0.81 |
| Estrada | MIL | STL | 11.2 | 2.31 | 3.72 | 1.25 | 42.9% | 26.1% | 10.9% | 1.54 | 0.92 |
| Peavy | BOS | CWS | 12.2 | 2.13 | 4.27 | 1.23 | 47.8% | 23.1% | 11.5% | 1.42 | 0.67 |
| Johnson | CWS | BOS | 10.1 | 9.58 | 4.72 | 2.28 | 40.0% | 11.1% | 7.4% | 0.00 | 1.83 |
| Morrow | TOR | MIN | 11 | 5.73 | 2.24 | 1.27 | 30.0% | 28.3% | 4.4% | 0.82 | 2.71 |
| Hughes | MIN | TOR | 10 | 7.20 | 4.02 | 1.60 | 34.5% | 21.7% | 8.7% | 1.80 | 0.75 |
| Mejia | NYM | ARI | 11 | 4.09 | 4.21 | 1.73 | 40.0% | 28.9% | 17.3% | 1.64 | 2.50 |
| Arroyo | ARI | NYM | 9.1 | 4.82 | 4.80 | 1.54 | 53.1% | 11.6% | 7.0% | 2.89 | 1.56 |
| Straily | OAK | LAA | 13 | 2.77 | 3.54 | 0.92 | 44.4% | 24.0% | 6.0% | 2.08 | 0.67 |
| Richards | LAA | OAK | 12 | 0.75 | 4.40 | 1.00 | 35.3% | 27.1% | 16.7% | 0.00 | 1.44 |
| Nicasio | COL | SDP | 12 | 3.75 | 3.07 | 1.25 | 25.8% | 24.0% | 6.0% | 0.75 | 2.00 |
| Erlin | SDP | COL | 6.2 | 1.35 | 2.34 | 0.65 | 66.7% | 29.2% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 0.71 |
| Beckett | LAD | SFG | 4 | 9.00 | 3.16 | 1.50 | 12.5% | 25.0% | 5.0% | 2.25 | 1.00 |
| Lincecum | SFG | LAD | 10 | 9.90 | 2.71 | 1.60 | 37.5% | 26.7% | 2.2% | 3.60 | 1.00 |
Here is a look at the day’s slate of arms and how they might stack in their given matchups.
BEST BUYS:
These aren’t just low-cost guys with good matchups and/or venues, but you will also find expensive studs in here with great matchups. An ace facing another ace won’t find his way in here because the win probability for both is sliced significantly by facing each other.
Stephen Strasburg, WAS (at MIA) – He owned Miami last time out and now gets to face them in their cavernous home stadium. He’s going to be a very popular pick, but that doesn’t mean you can’t be among the masses. Sometimes the obvious pick is so good that you’re basically left out of the mix in GPPs if you don’t also have his huge night on your team.
Masahiro Tanaka, NYY (v. CHC) – PLAY POSTPONED
Yordano Ventura, KC (at HOU) – Ventura hit everyone’s radar with a huge debut last week so he’s definitely going to be a sought after commodity today in Houston. The Astros “lead” the league with a 26% strikeout rate against righties and they are dead last with a .268 wOBA. Ventura will be especially popular at sites where his price hasn’t been lifted in response to his debut.
Anibal Sanchez, DET (v. CLE) – PLAY POSTPONED Sanchez hasn’t exactly been sharp in either of his first two outings, the first getting stunted by rain and the second getting stunted by his own early struggles. In fact, it was impressive to see him get through five considering the 62 pitches through two innings in LA. Fake out, it’s now postponed, too!
GOOD BUYS:
This is where a lot of the high-priced big arms with decent or worse matchups will reside. Any top arm can thwart even the toughest lineup, but it’s not always the most sensible buy when they are among the most costly arms on the board. This is also where the ace v. ace matchups will be as they still have the potential for a big score, but just lack the high probability of the ever-important win.
Gerrit Cole, PIT (at CIN) – Gripping the ball was next to impossible in Cincy on Monday night and thus the two teams combined for 10 homers in just six innings! The suspended game will be resumed today and the conditions should be markedly better, albeit rather cold. I’ll take cold over wet any day so I won’t automatically run from Cole today. The Reds have been below average in wOBA against righties and they’re striking out 23% of the time – 7th-most in baseball.
Robbie Erlin, SD (v. COL) – I’m a huge fan of Erlin, especially at home, but the Rockies are smashing lefties both home and away early on so I can’t dive in headfirst.
Jenrry Mejia, NYM (at ARI) – We’ve seen the risk with Mejia in both of his outings with five and four walks, respectively. They didn’t kill him in the debut, but the Braves made him pay. He also has eight and seven strikeouts, respectively, so he supplements his value via the strikeout. That also protects him from the major dud outing.
Juan Nicasio, COL (at SD) – Two sharp outings, both at home, has put Nicasio firmly on the radar for a start in San Diego against a modest offense that is striking out 25% of the time against right-handers. The .195 wOBA against righty sliders for the Padres plays right into Nicasio’s hands as he’s been leaning on his 31% of the time and yielding a 524 OPS with a 43% strikeout rate.
Jason Hammel, CHC (at NYY) – PLAY POSTPONED
Tom Koehler, MIA (v. WAS) – Koehler has sneaky second-level value. He’s been really solid with a pair of 6 IP/2 ER outings, including 6 Ks in his latest outing which came against these very same Nationals. He’s now got a 3.10 ERA in 40.7 IP over his last seven starts dating back to last year. He’s not special and pulling a W against Strasburg won’t be easy, but he’s a cheap option who can give you a solid outing as a second or third starter.
Garrett Richards, LAA (v. OAK) – Are we finally seeing something of a breakout from Richards? He’s always had the talent, but putting it together has been a challenge. His 0.75 ERA to date isn’t flawless as it comes with a 17% BB rate, but the 13 Ks and 4 hits allowed in 12 IP show how good his stuff has been. He is one of those boom/bust arms who can make your night or completely end it… at least if it’s the latter, he plays on the west coast so you will get to pretend you’re in contention for most of the evening.
Mike Leake, CIN (v. PIT) – He was brilliant his last time out against the Cardinals with eight scoreless innings of four-hit ball. We’ve seen these outings from Leake occasionally, but it’s obviously not his true talent level. He’s been mostly great against the Pirates in his career including a 3.28 ERA in four starts last year, but the 1.42 WHIP and modest 14% strikeout rate suggest he might’ve had some good fortune among those starts. I’m most concerned about the mid-30s forecast as he’s never pitched in weather that cold. He has a 5.41 ERA in his three career starts under 50 degrees. It’s a tiny sample, but cold weather can really get to some guys.
USE CAUTION:
Dan Straily, OAK (at LAA) – He’s got a really shiny 2.77 ERA and 0.92 WHIP through two starts, but all of his runs have come via the home run – something the Angels are quite adept at, particularly against righties with a 4.2% HR rate (simply HR divided by AB) thus far.
Cliff Lee, PHI (v. ATL) – Lee has bounced back from that disastrous Opening Day start in Texas, though he’s still be a little hittable in his last two outings (18 H in 13 IP). I love the 14/0 K/BB ratio in those starts and the Braves are prone to the swing-and-miss, but I can’t quite classify among the best right now given how hot Atlanta has been. Plus, add in a big threat of rain and I’m just staying away from this game tonight. With clear weather, Lee would’ve been first or second among the “Good Buys”.
Marco Estrada, MIL (v. STL) – The Cardinals had Estrada’s number last year, in fact they have throughout his career. He had a 6.51 ERA against them in 27.7 IP last year and it’s at 5.74 in 47 career IP. The Cards are fanning just 16% of the time against righties – 3rd-lowest in the league – which could prevent Estrada from racking up a handful of strikeouts to save his value if ends up with something like a 6 IP/3 ER effort.
Brandon Morrow, TOR (at MIN) – The velocity is way up which is encouraging, but I’m sorry if I’m not exactly sold on him based on a baseline quality start against the Astros. The Twins aren’t world-beaters, but their .330 wOBA has them sixth in the league against righties. They are first in baseball against righty fastballs with a .428 wOBA, so they’ll be attacking Morrow early in hopes of limiting the slider and splitter counts. I’m still treading very cautiously with Morrow.
Jake Odorizzi, TB (at BAL) / Miguel Gonzalez, BAL (v. TB) – The rain dumping on the northeast corridor scares me off of both of these guys. If this game does look like it will get played, I could be convinced to take a shot with one of these guys as the wind is blowing in from left at 20 MPH and it’s sitting in the mid-40s – not exactly ideal hitting conditions. I prefer Odorizzi to Gonzalez given the latter’s home run tendencies. I’m personally backing off of this game, but if you do decide to jump in, monitor the weather very closely.
Jake Peavy, BOS (at CWS) – The White Sox are on fire this year, particularly against righties with a .354 wOBA – the best in baseball – in a league-high 415 PA. And it wasn’t just their trip to Coors that boosted them. They have a .380 mark at home. Peavy put up a strong 2.95 ERA in 21 starts at US Cellular over the last two seasons, but of course he wasn’t facing this high-octane White Sox offense. Even with a host of games rained out and others being threatened with the same fate, I think you can still find safer options than Peavy.
Phil Hughes, MIN (v. TOR) – Maybe he should be a tier lower, but I’m a Hughes apologist. I still think he’s better than we’ve seen. I totally get it if you’re making him prove something for a few starts before coming close to considering him, but I could see myself using him as a cheap second or third option. The Jays know him and have success against him, though, so it certainly won’t come easy.
NOT AT ALL CONFIDENT, HERE’S WHY:
Bronson Arroyo, ARI (v. NYM) – I just never trust him. The home run potential is just too scary. Perhaps I have a bias against him, but I can rest easy at night knowing that.
Zach McAllister, CLE (at DET) – PLAY POSTPONED
Tim Lincecum, SF (v. LAD) – Separate the name value from the actual value. How confident do you really feel putting him in your lineup?
Shelby Miller, STL (at MIL) – The curveball is flat out broken right now. Batters are swinging at it just 18% of the time right now, compared to 42% last year. Lefties are spitting on it almost entirely with a 5% swing rate, down from 37% last year. No chance I’m messing with him until he shows a couple of strong outings in a row.
Robbie Ross, TEX (v. SEA) – That 1.74 ERA is such a mirage. The 1.65 WHIP and 1.4 K/BB ratio tell me so. I like the 11 Ks in 10.3 IP, but everything else is just blah. Seattle isn’t the tomato can it was last year.
David Hale, ATL (at PHI) – He was a mess against the Mets with 5 BB. I just don’t think we have a firm idea of what we’re getting in Hale just yet. The looming weather says he’s not even worth a low-dollar flier, either.
YOU CAN SAFELY IGNORE:
Couldn’t pay me to use these guys.
- Blake Beavan, SEA (at TEX)
- Erik Johnson, CWS (v. BOS)
- Lucas Harrell, HOU (v. KC)
Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against
| Pitcher | wOBA vs L | ERA vs L | wOBA vs R | ERA vs R | AVG | OPS | BABIP | FIP | AVG-A | Pit/G | Strk% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hale | 0.280 | 1.35 | 0.280 | 0.248 | 0.683 | 0.345 | 4.15 | 0.286 | 81.50 | 60.7% | |
| Lee | 0.252 | 2.72 | 0.294 | 3.13 | 0.297 | 0.782 | 0.431 | 2.41 | 0.358 | 100.33 | 71.4% |
| Hammel | 0.377 | 5.98 | 0.295 | 3.33 | 0.279 | 0.760 | 0.063 | 4.87 | 0.109 | 97.00 | 62.4% |
| Tanaka | 0.205 | 4.32 | 0.363 | 1.59 | 0.238 | 0.655 | 0.314 | 2.68 | 0.236 | 99.00 | 68.7% |
| Odorizzi | 0.369 | 4.87 | 0.285 | 4.05 | 0.258 | 0.664 | 0.343 | 4.00 | 0.295 | 94.50 | 60.8% |
| Gonzalez | 0.315 | 3.70 | 0.338 | 4.42 | 0.242 | 0.711 | 0.375 | 9.18 | 0.4 | 81.50 | 62.0% |
| McAllister | 0.333 | 3.90 | 0.315 | 3.36 | 0.256 | 0.722 | 0.324 | 2.33 | 0.244 | 92.50 | 63.8% |
| Sanchez | 0.308 | 3.51 | 0.237 | 1.61 | 0.269 | 0.782 | 0.320 | 2.52 | 0.235 | 89.50 | 62.6% |
| Cole | 0.283 | 3.31 | 0.286 | 3.16 | 0.230 | 0.649 | 0.286 | 3.34 | 0.224 | 104.00 | 68.8% |
| Leake | 0.320 | 3.17 | 0.308 | 3.40 | 0.233 | 0.687 | 0.167 | 4.96 | 0.18 | 104.00 | 55.8% |
| Strasburg | 0.283 | 3.74 | 0.264 | 2.75 | 0.284 | 0.792 | 0.359 | 2.65 | 0.232 | 98.67 | 65.5% |
| Koehler | 0.313 | 5.05 | 0.350 | 3.81 | 0.279 | 0.795 | 0.289 | 3.85 | 0.261 | 92.50 | 62.7% |
| Beavan | 0.378 | 7.16 | 0.316 | 5.09 | 0.230 | 0.616 | |||||
| Ross | 0.404 | 3.86 | 0.259 | 2.30 | 0.283 | 0.792 | 0.320 | 4.64 | 0.243 | 97.00 | 58.8% |
| Ventura | 0.283 | 2.63 | 0.216 | 2.35 | 0.171 | 0.607 | 0.143 | 1.18 | 0.1 | 95.00 | 65.3% |
| Harrell | 0.351 | 6.00 | 0.408 | 6.30 | 0.259 | 0.668 | 0.419 | 6.05 | 0.378 | 91.50 | 53.0% |
| Miller | 0.349 | 4.09 | 0.270 | 2.66 | 0.290 | 0.793 | 0.265 | 8.13 | 0.289 | 94.50 | 62.4% |
| Estrada | 0.285 | 3.16 | 0.305 | 4.35 | 0.243 | 0.692 | 0.259 | 4.64 | 0.22 | 98.00 | 64.8% |
| Peavy | 0.317 | 4.23 | 0.293 | 3.91 | 0.285 | 0.813 | 0.219 | 4.76 | 0.196 | 101.50 | 62.6% |
| Johnson | 0.476 | 6.50 | 0.256 | 3.72 | 0.255 | 0.681 | 0.452 | 3.76 | 0.396 | 102.50 | 56.6% |
| Morrow | 0.422 | 6.94 | 0.303 | 4.20 | 0.257 | 0.740 | 0.367 | 2.55 | 0.273 | 86.50 | 63.6% |
| Hughes | 0.376 | 5.21 | 0.350 | 5.53 | 0.206 | 0.630 | 0.345 | 5.28 | 0.293 | 100.50 | 71.1% |
| Mejia | 0.311 | 3.29 | 0.244 | 1.40 | 0.272 | 0.732 | 0.308 | 5.28 | 0.233 | 99.50 | 65.8% |
| Arroyo | 0.366 | 4.64 | 0.279 | 3.07 | 0.199 | 0.601 | 0.258 | 7.58 | 0.282 | 86.00 | 63.4% |
| Straily | 0.325 | 4.83 | 0.274 | 3.13 | 0.237 | 0.704 | 0.188 | 5.03 | 0.191 | 95.50 | 62.3% |
| Richards | 0.319 | 3.84 | 0.281 | 4.16 | 0.252 | 0.753 | 0.148 | 3.02 | 0.1 | 102.00 | 56.4% |
| Nicasio | 0.329 | 5.65 | 0.358 | 4.55 | 0.240 | 0.628 | 0.324 | 3.02 | 0.255 | 91.50 | 68.3% |
| Erlin | 0.325 | 4.82 | 0.280 | 3.43 | 0.309 | 0.847 | 0.235 | 1.08 | 0.167 | 53.50 | 67.3% |
| Beckett | 0.395 | 7.78 | 0.353 | 4.00 | 0.230 | 0.695 | 0.333 | 5.43 | 0.278 | 85.00 | 64.7% |
| Lincecum | 0.310 | 4.41 | 0.341 | 4.87 | 0.277 | 0.786 | 0.393 | 6.28 | 0.341 | 84.50 | 68.0% |
Starting Pitcher Salaries
Click the image below to view pitcher salaries by each daily fantasy site along with their percent of top statistics.
- Percent of Top (Top) – Player salary divided by the most expensive pitcher each day. So if Felix Hernandez is $9,000 on FanDuel and Justin Verlander is $4,500, Verlanders Top stat would be 50.
NOTE: Button for pitcher salary chart above opens in popup window