Daily Pitcher Breakdown: April 18th
The Daily Pitcher Breakdown goes in-depth to look at nearly every pitching option, with a focus on the best targets for each night. Sometimes there will be a best of the rest section featuring guys who are likely low-dollar options with some upside for those of you who prefer to load your lineup with hitting studs.
There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in White are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ
Daily Pitcher Chart
| Pitcher | TM | OPP | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wacha | STL | WAS | 19 | 1.89 | 3.05 | 0.95 | 66.7% | 23.7% | 4.0% | 0.47 | 1.31 |
| Gonzalez | WAS | STL | 18 | 3.50 | 3.90 | 1.22 | 62.5% | 22.4% | 9.2% | 1.00 | 0.86 |
| Lohse | MIL | PIT | 20.2 | 3.05 | 3.46 | 1.14 | 43.8% | 25.0% | 8.3% | 0.87 | 0.91 |
| Morton | PIT | MIL | 19 | 3.32 | 3.72 | 1.21 | 45.0% | 17.5% | 6.3% | 0.95 | 2.15 |
| Hutchison | TOR | CLE | 14.2 | 3.68 | 4.09 | 1.48 | 23.8% | 12.7% | 0.61 | 1.27 | |
| Masterson | CLE | TOR | 15.1 | 5.87 | 4.12 | 1.72 | 55.2% | 20.3% | 12.2% | 0.59 | 2.78 |
| Weaver | LAA | DET | 18.2 | 5.79 | 3.96 | 1.15 | 58.3% | 22.7% | 9.3% | 2.41 | 0.70 |
| Smyly | DET | LAA | 6 | 0.00 | 2.08 | 0.50 | 30.0% | 5.0% | 0.00 | 1.40 | |
| Kuroda | NYY | TBR | 18.2 | 3.86 | 3.80 | 1.15 | 50.0% | 18.4% | 5.3% | 0.96 | 1.18 |
| Bedard | TBR | NYY | 2 | 0.00 | 7.11 | 1.50 | 26.9% | 0.0% | 11.1% | 0.00 | 0.67 |
| Harang | ATL | NYM | 18.2 | 0.96 | 3.81 | 0.82 | 38.5% | 24.3% | 8.6% | 0.00 | 0.48 |
| Niese | NYM | ATL | 13 | 3.46 | 3.54 | 1.08 | 54.2% | 18.0% | 4.0% | 1.38 | 1.70 |
| Young | SEA | MIA | 8 | 0.00 | 5.79 | 0.88 | 12.9% | 9.7% | 0.00 | 0.40 | |
| Eovaldi | MIA | SEA | 19.1 | 4.19 | 2.59 | 1.05 | 66.7% | 24.7% | 1.3% | 0.47 | 1.45 |
| Tillman | BAL | BOS | 21.1 | 0.84 | 3.76 | 0.85 | 48.5% | 18.1% | 3.6% | 0.84 | 1.00 |
| Lackey | BOS | BAL | 18.2 | 3.86 | 3.23 | 1.15 | 51.7% | 22.7% | 4.0% | 2.41 | 1.05 |
| Paulino | CWS | TEX | 14.2 | 7.98 | 5.19 | 2.18 | 14.5% | 11.8% | 2.45 | 1.00 | |
| Perez | TEX | CWS | 20 | 2.70 | 3.67 | 1.30 | 40.0% | 16.2% | 8.1% | 0.00 | 3.56 |
| Nolasco | MIN | KCR | 18 | 5.50 | 4.95 | 1.61 | 45.5% | 11.3% | 8.8% | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Vargas | KCR | MIN | 22 | 1.64 | 4.42 | 0.86 | 45.8% | 14.6% | 6.1% | 1.23 | 1.08 |
| Pettibone | PHI | COL | 5 | 1.80 | 3.27 | 1.80 | 27.8% | 20.8% | 4.2% | 1.80 | 1.75 |
| Chatwood | COL | PHI | 6 | 6.00 | 3.25 | 1.00 | 55.0% | 20.8% | 0.0% | 1.50 | 0.71 |
| Cosart | HOU | OAK | 18 | 4.00 | 3.38 | 1.06 | 60.0% | 20.3% | 8.1% | 0.50 | 2.54 |
| Gray | OAK | HOU | 19 | 0.95 | 3.29 | 1.21 | 60.0% | 24.1% | 8.9% | 0.00 | 2.60 |
| Cain | SFG | SDP | 18 | 4.00 | 4.05 | 1.22 | 56.7% | 17.3% | 6.7% | 1.50 | 1.30 |
| Ross | SDP | SFG | 17.1 | 3.12 | 4.30 | 1.52 | 50.0% | 20.3% | 12.7% | 0.52 | 2.00 |
| Miley | ARI | LAD | 25 | 5.04 | 3.83 | 1.28 | 51.5% | 18.3% | 7.7% | 1.08 | 1.90 |
| Greinke | LAD | ARI | 16.1 | 2.76 | 2.03 | 1.12 | 64.3% | 31.3% | 3.0% | 2.20 | 1.77 |
Here is a look at the day’s slate of arms and how they might stack in their given matchups.
BEST BUYS:
These aren’t just low-cost guys with good matchups and/or venues, but you will also find expensive studs in here with great matchups. An ace facing another ace won’t find his way in here because the win probability for both is sliced significantly by facing each other.
Sonny Gray, OAK (at HOU) – This is paint-by-numbers, obviously. He’s been great, the Astros have been wretched, and thus he will be a remarkably popular pick today. On the one hand, you might want to zag while everyone zigs, but on the other hand, Gray might have the kind of dominant performance you need to have on your team to compete in some GPPs.
Matt Cain, SF (at SD) – Cain can stay hot again the Padres as they bring a .282 wOBA against righties into this match – 28th in baseball. Additionally, he has a 1.23 ERA against the Padres in the last two seasons over three starts. I’m kind of surprised he’s only faced a divisional rival three times in two seasons, but that seems to be a quirk of scheduling.
Zack Greinke, LAD (v. ARI) – The D’backs are dumpster fire. They ran up Greinke’s count a bit last time out which limited him to just 5.3 IP last time out (in 103 pitches), but he allowed just a run on eight scattered hits with eight strikeouts. Greinke has been excellent through three starts, though homers have been a bit of an issue (4 in 3 outings) thus far. Thankfully he’s not allowing any base runners so they’ve all been solo shots.
Nate Eovaldi, MIA (v. SEA) – Eovaldi has an NL-best 2.07 FIP and MLB-best 19.0 K/BB ratio in his three starts, both of which suggest his 4.19 ERA is headed downward. Among the pitchers who have thrown at least 200 fastballs, Eovaldi’s 471 OPS is third-best behind just Johnny Cueto (222) and Andrew Cashner (334).
GOOD BUYS:
This is where a lot of the high-priced big arms with decent or worse matchups will reside. Any top arm can thwart even the toughest lineup, but it’s not always the most sensible buy when they are among the most costly arms on the board. This is also where the ace v. ace matchups will be as they still have the potential for a big score, but just lack the high probability of the ever-important win.
Michael Wacha, STL (at WAS) / Gio Gonzalez, WAS (v. STL) – A couple of studs facing each other puts a lot of solid bats on ice as the Cards and Nats lineup often have intriguing options in their lineups. I was worried about Wacha’s lack of a reliable curveball coming into the season, but he’s started to assuage those fears both by using the curveball around 13% of the time and effectively (222 OPS in 9 PA) as well as just flat-out dominating with the changeup (250 OPS in 20 PA). Gonzalez had two excellent outings to start his season before getting touched up by the Braves his last time out. I don’t worry about him.
Jarred Cosart, HOU (v. OAK) – Cosart has really improved early on in 2014. His 4.00 ERA doesn’t jump off the page, but his 3.28 FIP, 1.06 WHIP, and 2.5 K/BB ratio shows that he’s been a bit better than that ERA. His fastball has been excellent which has made the curveball that much more devastating and it’s allowed him to vastly improve the hideous 0.95 K/BB ratio from last year that made his 1.95 ERA a complete farce. I wouldn’t go out expecting a win, but Cosart as a value play in your second or third pitcher spot is a strong option.
Chris Tillman, BAL (at BOS) – The biggest issue with Tillman coming into the season was stifling homers. So far he’s done just that with two in three starts and he gets a Red Sox offense that hasn’t been all that good early on, particularly against righties with a .297 wOBA that rates 22nd.
Kyle Lohse, MIL (at PIT) / Charlie Morton, PIT (v. MIL) – This is the bargain version of the Wacha/Gonzalez matchup. Neither of these guys are studs, but they’ve both been very good to start th season and they could definitely throw up plenty of zeroes as they did on Sunday in Milwaukee. The Brewers got the best of Morton (7 IP/2 ER, but 4 R) while Lohse was excellent (8.7 IP/1 ER), but even a pair of 6 IP/2 ER would be more than useful, especially since they don’t usually cost much at any outlet.
Drew Smyly, DET (v. LAA) – Smyly finally gets a start! The lefty makes his debut start after inclement weather and an early run of off days left the Tigers not needing a fifth starter until mid-April. He was a chic fantasy sleeper so I expect that hype to translate into some strong daily game usage. The Angels aren’t an easy matchup, but their .314 wOBA isn’t exactly fear-inducing, either.
Martin Perez, TEX (v. CWS) – I still really wish he’d get more out of his fastball, but the changeup has been excellent (364 OPS, 29% K rate) and carried his secondary stuff. The White Sox are mid-pack against lefties and Rangers pitchers have allowed a meager .262 wOBA at home so far this season.
Jason Vargas, KC (v. MIN) – While he’s undoubtedly been amazing through three starts, I think we all know that Vargas isn’t this pitcher. He’s already smashed the Twins (7 IP/2 ER) and their .277 wOBA against lefties suggests he could do it again. A regression is coming just as his 4.42 FIP suggests, but I think he can stave it off for at least another start.
Aaron Harang, ATL (at NYM) – I feel dirty, but I can’t ignore what he’s done thus far. Of course, I’ve been vehemently against him in his first three starts so it’d figure that when I finally back him, he caves in. But his early start is backed up by the numbers. Not quite to the tune of his 0.96 ERA, but he does have a 2.20 FIP, 0.80 WHIP, and 2.8 K/BB ratio. The Mets have already been stymied by him once (6 IP/1 ER/9 K on Apr 8th) though he took the loss there.
John Lackey, BOS (v. BAL) – Lackey had his first flameout of the season – a 4 HR disaster against the Yankees – but his first two outings were both great and the first was a 6 IP/2 ER gem against these very same Orioles. The O’s hitting hasn’t come around yet so I don’t blindly run away from them like I probably will once they’re clicking on all cylinders.
USE CAUTION:
Hiroki Kuroda, NYY (at TB) – Kuroda hasn’t allowed fewer than 4 ER against the Rays in any of his six starts over the last two seasons. They’ve got his number both home and away.
Tyson Ross, SD (v. SF) – Can he build on a beautiful effort against Detroit? He walked just one and turned in a huge 7 IP/1 ER effort after walking nine in 10.3 IP during his first two outings. The upside is there if the command is on, but it’s not without risk.
Jered Weaver, LAA (at DET) – Homers killed Weaver in Houston and then walks sunk him against the Mets over the weekend. His margin for error with the lowered velocity is thin making him a major boom/bust pick. I don’t see much upside in rolling him out there against a potent Tigers lineup unless you can find at a dirt-cheap price somewhere.
Wade Miley, ARI (at LAD) – Miley’s better than his 5.04 ERA, but the Dodgers are a big reason he’s up there (8 ER in 10 IP over two starts this year) so I just can’t confidently recommend him here today. And squeaking out a win won’t be easy even if he does manage to improve and go deeper than the five innings he’s gone in the first two starts.
Drew Hutchison, TOR (at CLE) – Walks have plagued the young righty in his return from injury. He has an awful 12.7% BB rate thus far and faces a Cleveland club that is second-highest in BB rate against righties with a 13.1% mark while their 14.9% strikeout rate is second-lowest.
Justin Masterson, CLE (v. TOR) – Ummm, what the hell, Justin? After a tremendous season debut, Masterson has labored through a pair of duds allowing far too many hits, runs, and walks. I’m holding firm long-term, but not a chance I’m messing with him against Toronto.
NOT AT ALL CONFIDENT, HERE’S WHY:
Jon Niese, NYM (v. ATL) – Neither of his two starts have been bad by any stretch of the imagination, but this one is more about his opponent as the Braves lead baseball with a .384 wOBA against lefties. They also pummeled Niese to the tune of a 6.91 ERA in three starts last year so I think it’s best to just stay away today.
Erik Bedard, TB (v. NYY) – He’s just so damn inconsistent. He’ll twirl a handful of gems this year, but I don’t like him in his first start of the year against a Yankees team that has a .342 wOBA against lefties so far this year – good for sixth in the league.
Chris Young, SEA (at MIA) – I’m still not particularly sold on this Marlins offense, but I’m not even 1% sold on Young. If he continues to get starts, he’ll have a good start here and there, but I don’t like the gamble. They’ve ripped Strasburg and Zimmermann in separate starts this year and those two are light years better than Young.
Tyler Chatwood, COL (v. PHI) – I like Chatwood’s arm and he has a huge groundball rate that helps him survive at Coors, but with 28 names on the docket, I can’t imagine you would yourself in a spot where you need to really risk it with Chatwood.
Ricky Nolasco, MIN (at KC) – He’s been brutal. Like, even Mike Pelfrey makes fun of him in the clubhouse. There’s nothing in his first three starts that suggests you should bet on this game being his turnaround outing.
YOU CAN SAFELY IGNORE:
Couldn’t pay me to use these guys.
- Felipe Paulino, CWS (at TEX)
- Jonathan Pettibone, PHI (at COL)
Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against
| Pitcher | wOBA vs L | ERA vs L | wOBA vs R | ERA vs R | AVG | OPS | BABIP | FIP | AVG-A | Pit/G | Strk% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wacha | 0.244 | 1.76 | 0.293 | 3.40 | 0.279 | 0.795 | 0.269 | 2.62 | 0.211 | 92.67 | 67.6% |
| Gonzalez | 0.265 | 3.62 | 0.310 | 3.33 | 0.179 | 0.524 | 0.265 | 3.93 | 0.221 | 98.33 | 64.4% |
| Lohse | 0.332 | 4.05 | 0.279 | 2.74 | 0.233 | 0.687 | 0.259 | 3.29 | 0.208 | 101.67 | 65.2% |
| Morton | 0.364 | 4.76 | 0.261 | 2.25 | 0.290 | 0.793 | 0.281 | 4.04 | 0.247 | 93.33 | 68.2% |
| Hutchison | 0.372 | 6.14 | 0.254 | 1.29 | 0.269 | 0.782 | 0.316 | 3.73 | 0.241 | 85.67 | 60.7% |
| Masterson | 0.318 | 3.95 | 0.248 | 3.24 | 0.206 | 0.630 | 0.348 | 4.28 | 0.274 | 97.00 | 59.5% |
| Weaver | 0.287 | 3.67 | 0.324 | 3.38 | 0.256 | 0.722 | 0.200 | 5.99 | 0.209 | 98.00 | 57.1% |
| Smyly | 0.196 | 1.93 | 0.305 | 2.44 | 0.225 | 0.670 | 0.154 | 1.54 | 0.105 | 49.00 | 65.3% |
| Kuroda | 0.326 | 3.88 | 0.264 | 2.76 | 0.242 | 0.711 | 0.268 | 3.58 | 0.236 | 93.33 | 60.7% |
| Bedard | 0.369 | 5.05 | 0.332 | 4.38 | 0.259 | 0.735 | 0.250 | 4.54 | 0.25 | 37.00 | 64.9% |
| Harang | 0.341 | 4.99 | 0.317 | 4.73 | 0.199 | 0.601 | 0.191 | 2.19 | 0.141 | 102.67 | 63.6% |
| Niese | 0.277 | 3.48 | 0.343 | 3.79 | 0.297 | 0.782 | 0.270 | 4.12 | 0.25 | 93.00 | 64.5% |
| Young | 0.206 | 0.099 | 0.284 | 0.792 | 0.167 | 3.17 | 0.143 | 59.50 | 61.3% | ||
| Eovaldi | 0.320 | 4.25 | 0.286 | 2.96 | 0.209 | 0.656 | 0.327 | 2.06 | 0.253 | 99.00 | 69.7% |
| Tillman | 0.320 | 3.69 | 0.301 | 3.19 | 0.255 | 0.681 | 0.206 | 3.28 | 0.188 | 107.00 | 65.1% |
| Lackey | 0.293 | 3.17 | 0.334 | 4.05 | 0.258 | 0.664 | 0.260 | 5.19 | 0.25 | 93.33 | 72.1% |
| Paulino | 0.408 | 8.00 | 0.430 | 7.94 | 0.230 | 0.616 | 0.346 | 6.93 | 0.328 | 104.67 | 58.3% |
| Perez | 0.328 | 2.97 | 0.318 | 3.72 | 0.283 | 0.805 | 0.357 | 2.74 | 0.294 | 97.00 | 62.5% |
| Nolasco | 0.330 | 4.43 | 0.295 | 3.30 | 0.259 | 0.668 | 0.311 | 5.38 | 0.301 | 96.67 | 58.3% |
| Vargas | 0.334 | 2.74 | 0.322 | 4.10 | 0.217 | 0.650 | 0.177 | 4.41 | 0.182 | 109.33 | 64.9% |
| Pettibone | 0.366 | 4.41 | 0.333 | 3.54 | 0.305 | 0.826 | 0.412 | 4.24 | 0.348 | 80.00 | 61.3% |
| Chatwood | 0.333 | 2.91 | 0.311 | 3.69 | 0.248 | 0.683 | 0.294 | 4.04 | 0.261 | 74.00 | 66.2% |
| Cosart | 0.245 | 1.51 | 0.338 | 3.99 | 0.252 | 0.753 | 0.235 | 3.27 | 0.194 | 100.00 | 63.0% |
| Gray | 0.272 | 2.35 | 0.232 | 2.17 | 0.171 | 0.607 | 0.302 | 2.15 | 0.222 | 101.67 | 59.7% |
| Cain | 0.286 | 3.67 | 0.319 | 4.33 | 0.240 | 0.628 | 0.259 | 4.60 | 0.243 | 98.67 | 63.5% |
| Ross | 0.328 | 3.88 | 0.253 | 2.52 | 0.230 | 0.695 | 0.294 | 3.85 | 0.235 | 98.00 | 61.2% |
| Miley | 0.322 | 4.60 | 0.323 | 3.55 | 0.216 | 0.637 | 0.284 | 4.04 | 0.25 | 92.50 | 63.8% |
| Greinke | 0.323 | 3.17 | 0.260 | 2.25 | 0.272 | 0.732 | 0.300 | 4.02 | 0.246 | 97.00 | 64.6% |
Starting Pitcher Salaries
Click the image below to view pitcher salaries by each daily fantasy site along with their percent of top statistics.
- Percent of Top (Top) – Player salary divided by the most expensive pitcher each day. So if Felix Hernandez is $9,000 on FanDuel and Justin Verlander is $4,500, Verlanders Top stat would be 50.
NOTE: Button for pitcher salary chart above opens in popup window