Daily Pitcher Breakdown: April 30th
The Daily Pitcher Breakdown goes in-depth to look at nearly every pitching option, with a focus on the best targets for each night. Sometimes there will be a best of the rest section featuring guys who are likely low-dollar options with some upside for those of you who prefer to load your lineup with hitting studs.
There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in White are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ
Daily Pitcher Chart
| Pitcher | TM | OPP | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colon | NYM | PHI | 32 | 4.50 | 3.54 | 1.28 | 40.0% | 19.0% | 2.2% | 1.69 | 0.93 |
| Kendrick | PHI | NYM | 30.2 | 3.52 | 3.90 | 1.42 | 40.0% | 13.9% | 5.1% | 1.47 | 2.00 |
| Morton | PIT | BAL | 31 | 4.35 | 4.32 | 1.35 | 40.0% | 15.4% | 8.8% | 0.87 | 2.09 |
| Tillman | BAL | PIT | 32 | 3.38 | 3.97 | 1.25 | 40.0% | 19.6% | 6.5% | 1.41 | 0.77 |
| Elias | SEA | NYY | 28 | 3.54 | 4.55 | 1.36 | 20.0% | 18.1% | 12.1% | 0.64 | 1.70 |
| Phelps | NYY | SEA | 11.2 | 3.86 | 3.25 | 1.52 | 29.6% | 13.0% | 2.31 | 0.63 | |
| McAllister | CLE | LAA | 28.2 | 3.14 | 3.92 | 1.21 | 60.0% | 19.3% | 6.7% | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| Wilson | LAA | CLE | 31.2 | 3.69 | 3.38 | 1.31 | 60.0% | 25.4% | 9.2% | 1.14 | 1.50 |
| Archer | TBR | BOS | 30.2 | 4.11 | 3.22 | 1.29 | 60.0% | 19.7% | 3.9% | 0.29 | 1.92 |
| Doubront | BOS | TBR | 24 | 6.00 | 4.82 | 1.71 | 20.0% | 13.9% | 9.6% | 1.13 | 1.33 |
| Harang | ATL | MIA | 31.2 | 0.85 | 3.64 | 0.90 | 100.0% | 27.3% | 10.7% | 0.00 | 0.54 |
| Eovaldi | MIA | ATL | 31.1 | 2.87 | 2.76 | 1.13 | 60.0% | 23.4% | 3.1% | 0.29 | 1.73 |
| Jackson | CHC | CIN | 28.2 | 5.02 | 4.59 | 1.67 | 18.0% | 11.7% | 0.00 | 1.50 | |
| Cingrani | CIN | CHC | 28.1 | 2.86 | 3.98 | 1.25 | 60.0% | 25.6% | 12.8% | 0.64 | 0.84 |
| Chavez | OAK | TEX | 31 | 2.32 | 2.84 | 1.10 | 80.0% | 26.0% | 5.5% | 0.87 | 1.65 |
| Ross | TEX | OAK | 29.1 | 2.45 | 3.27 | 1.20 | 40.0% | 20.6% | 6.4% | 0.92 | 2.27 |
| Hutchison | TOR | KCR | 26 | 3.46 | 2.92 | 1.38 | 40.0% | 29.5% | 8.0% | 1.04 | 1.04 |
| Ventura | KCR | TOR | 25 | 1.80 | 3.22 | 1.12 | 75.0% | 26.2% | 8.7% | 0.36 | 1.55 |
| Zimmermann | WAS | HOU | 26.2 | 4.05 | 3.21 | 1.37 | 40.0% | 24.6% | 6.1% | 1.01 | 1.12 |
| Oberholtzer | HOU | WAS | 27.1 | 4.61 | 4.10 | 1.37 | 20.0% | 18.3% | 6.7% | 0.99 | 0.84 |
| Greinke | LAD | MIN | 29.1 | 2.45 | 1.97 | 1.00 | 60.0% | 34.2% | 4.3% | 1.84 | 1.52 |
| Gibson | MIN | LAD | 22.1 | 3.63 | 4.92 | 1.49 | 50.0% | 13.5% | 11.5% | 0.00 | 1.77 |
| Lyles | COL | ARI | 30.2 | 2.93 | 3.62 | 1.13 | 60.0% | 14.8% | 5.7% | 0.59 | 2.94 |
| Collmenter | ARI | COL | 24 | 3.38 | 3.81 | 1.17 | 33.3% | 19.8% | 7.3% | 0.75 | 1.00 |
| Erlin | SDP | SFG | 22.2 | 6.35 | 3.86 | 1.44 | 25.0% | 20.0% | 6.0% | 0.40 | 0.72 |
| Hudson | SFG | SDP | 37 | 2.19 | 2.98 | 0.78 | 80.0% | 18.0% | 1.4% | 0.49 | 2.22 |
Here is a look at the day’s slate of arms and how they might stack in their given matchups.
WEATHER WORRIES:
These games are strongly threatened by rain and may be cancelled before this evening.
Zack Greinke, LAD (at MIN) – While the Twins have surprised on offense and actually hold the top wOBA against righties in the league, I still see this as a great opportunity for Greinke. The Twins succeed by waiting out pitchers, drawing walks, and then punishing him for the free passes. Well, Greinke doesn’t allow free passes, he has an excellent 4.3% BB rate so it’ll be a battle of wills as the Twins try to leverage their league-best 13.3% BB rate against him. [Would be a BEST BUY without rain]
Chris Tillman, BAL (v. PIT) – PLAY POSTPONED Tillman’s last outing is a perfect microcosm of his downside. He allowed seven runs in 5.7 IP thanks in large part to three homers. He still fanned seven and actually pulled a win, salvaging his night. The Pirates don’t present nearly the same challenge as the Blue Jays. They have some home run pop, but if Tillman avoids mistakes to Pedro Alvarez and Andrew McCutchen, he should be able to emulate something like his start in Detroit or his first effort against Toronto (both 8 IP gems). [Would be a BEST BUY without rain]
Bartolo Colon, NYM (at PHI) – PLAY POSTPONED Bounced back from his homer-fest in LA with a pair of sharp 7 IP outings (allowing 3 and 1 ER, respectively) during which he also surged in strikeouts with 14 against just one walk. That massacre in LA certainly ended your chances of success in any tourney where you had him, but he’s been so good over the last two seasons-plus that you have to feel confident using him in just about any matchup. [Would be a BEST BUY tier without rain]
David Phelps, NYY (v. SEA) – PLAY POSTPONED This is his first start of the year so I’m not sure we’ll see too much beyond a five-and-dive unless his pitch count is looking great. However, he’s facing an unimpressive Mariners offense so he could still be a great value even in five innings just because the price will be dirt-cheap. After allowing 4 ER in his first two appearances this season, he’s allowed just one in his last seven. [Would be a GOOD BUY tier without rain]
Roenis Elias, SEA (at NYY) – PLAY POSTPONED I’ve been cautious throughout and I remain so even with a 3.54 ERA through five starts. He’s been far from special in any single outing let alone on the composite and we’ve seen some erosion in his last couple of outings. He’s gone more than 5.7 IP just once and the Yanks excel against lefties. Pass. [Would be in the USE CAUTION tier without rain]
Charlie Morton, PIT (at BAL) – PLAY POSTPONED Morton can be a great cheap option in the right matchup, but he’s mostly just a six inning guy who will give up between three and five runs without the Ks necessary to tolerate the four and five run efforts. I like Morton more in season-long fantasy than in the daily game. He’s going to have some big efforts where he mows down a lineup on a low pitch count with that heavy groundball approach, but targeting exactly when that will happen isn’t easy because he can tame good lineups just as easily as poor ones can nickel-and-dime him to death. [Would be in the USE CAUTION tier without rain]
Kyle Kendrick, PHI (v. NYM) – PLAY POSTPONEDT He’s been better than expected with a 3.52 ERA and four worthwhile starts out of five and yet I’m still not really eager to use him, even at a fair price. I pay more heed to his 4.68 FIP as he doesn’t miss bats, doesn’t stifle hits, and allows too many homers. [Would be in the USE CAUTION tier without rain]
Kyle Gibson, MIN (v. LAD) – He kinda looks like Cosart did a season ago… much better results than his component skills deserve. He’s going to be a very volatile option and there’s no way I’d use him against this offense. [Would be in the NOT CONFIDENT tier without rain]
BEST BUYS:
These aren’t just low-cost guys with good matchups and/or venues, but you will also find expensive studs in here with great matchups. An ace facing another ace won’t find his way in here because the win probability for both is sliced significantly by facing each other.
Jordan Zimmermann, WAS (at HOU) – This is the obvious pick of the day. He’ll be very popular heading into Houston. Early on we’ve seen his groundball rate dip 10 percentage points, but the strikeout rate has jumped six percentage points to 24.6 so it’s been a worthy tradeoff. He has a 4.05 ERA, but that’s heavily inflated by the tattooing he received from Miami. He has a 2.52 ERA in his other 25 IP.
Tim Hudson, SF (v. SD) – OK, maybe this is the obvious pick of the day. Hudson has been brilliant this year going seven-plus in each of his five starts with tremendous results including a 2.19 ERA, 0.78 WHIP, and 12.5 K/BB ratio in 37 IP. Add in the fact that he’s facing the most anemic offense in the game (.260 wOBA v. righties, easily last in MLB) and this could be a special outing.
Yordano Ventura, KC (v. TOR) – You’re absorbing the risk that we saw in that Minnesota outing (4 IP, 4 ER, 4 BB) for the tremendous upside we’ve seen in the other three outings combined (21 IP, 1 ER, 21 K). Toronto has been modest against righties on the road, sitting 14th in the league with a .285 wOBA.
C.J. Wilson, LAA (v. CLE) – After a rough opener (5.7 IP/6 ER), he’s been chiseling his ERA down nicely with a 2.42 ERA in 26 IP. He also has a 25/10 K/BB ratio in those four starts which includes trips to Detroit and the Bronx. The Indians offense has been terrible to date, particularly against lefties.
Tony Cingrani, CIN (v. CHC) – This guy probably deserves more hype. He’s now got a 2.38 ERA in 138 career IP with essentially one pitch. He misses a ton of bats and he’s largely unhittable. Walks and homers are his problem spots when things don’t work, but with that 2.38 ERA, those times are quite rare.
GOOD BUYS:
This is where a lot of the high-priced big arms with decent or worse matchups will reside. Any top arm can thwart even the toughest lineup, but it’s not always the most sensible buy when they are among the most costly arms on the board. This is also where the ace v. ace matchups will be as they still have the potential for a big score, but just lack the high probability of the ever-important win.
Jesse Chavez, OAK (at TEX) – I know his first bad start of the season was the end of the road for many, but that seems foolish given how strong the skills have been for him. The Rangers offense hasn’t lived up to expectations thus far, either, so this isn’t a bad spot to look for a Chavez rebound.
Robbie Ross, TEX (v. OAK) – While he’s gone fewer than six innings in three of his five starts, it’s hard to argue with the results from Ross thus far. He has eight walks on the season, but six were in one game and he has a 15/0 K/BB ratio in his last three. He’s allowed more than 2 ER just once so far this season. In short, he’s been great. He still doesn’t cost a ton at most outlets, so I’m buying.
Nathan Eovaldi, MIA (v. ATL) / Aaron Harang, ATL (at MIA) – Jose Fernandez held up his end of the rematch last night while Alex Wood wilted, so tonight we’ll see how Eovaldi/Harang fare in their rematch. Both have been excellent so far this season and both went six strong on April 23rd in Atlanta. I still much prefer Eovaldi long-term, but even as we all wait for collapse of Harang, we have to recognize that his component numbers are still yielding a healthy 2.27 FIP. He hasn’t been completely smoke-and-mirrors, but the 4.3 H/9 rate won’t last.
Drew Hutchison, TOR (at KC) – The 23-year old has been great after missing all of 2013 due to injury. He’s still kind of getting his legs under him as he’s yet to go more than six innings and he’s just now pushing triple digits with his pitch counts (100 and 102 in his last two), but he’s been making the most of his allotted pitch count, including back-to-back 9 K efforts against Cleveland and Baltimore. The Royals don’t strike out so I’d be surprised if he pulled a third such outing, but they aren’t world-beaters offensively, either, so I can definitely still envision a strong outing even without the strikeouts.
Robbie Erlin, SD (at SF) – Erlin hates DC. Nationals Park has been the site of his two worst starts ever including a 5.3 IP/8 ER destruction his last time out. Prior to that, he’d been relatively sharp with a 4.15 ERA, but a 0.98 WHIP and 17 Ks in 17.3 IP. He’s still a strong option in pitcher’s park like his home in San Diego and of course AT&T Park in San Francisco. With the rock bottom price, he doesn’t need to be amazing to be a strong value play as a secondary arm.
Felix Doubront, BOS (v. TB) – PLAY POSTPONED If you were ever going to use a guy with a 6.00 ERA through five starts (and a track record that doesn’t really suggest he should be that much better), then it would be a spot like this. The Rays have struggled against lefties with a paltry .279 wOBA and this could be a spot to pick an off-the-radar arm and get a jump on folks as he’s unlikely to be widely used.
Jordan Lyles, COL (at ARI) – Lyles has been waaaay better than anticipated and it hasn’t just been taking advantage of starts outside of Coors. In fact, he has a 2.93 ERA with nine of his 10 earned runs coming on the road (1 ER in 13.7 IP at Coors). He doesn’t miss bats (never has, really), but he doesn’t allow walks and he’s been excellent at keeping the ball down. I’m still a bit skeptical overall, but he’s priced to buy.
USE CAUTION:
Zach McAllister, CLE (at LAA) – He’s been very good this year, no denying that at all. This ranking is really more about his competition today in the Angels. On a day with a relatively full slate, there just isn’t much upside in messing with that high-octane offense with a mid-tier option like McAllister. I could see using him as an against-the-grain option in a huge GPP where you’re trying not be among the pack that just takes the Zimmermanns, Venturas, and Hudsons of the world, but there is still plenty of risk with McAllister otherwise.
Chris Archer, TB (at BOS) – PLAY POSTPONED While Archer has been frustrating, the two teams that clobbered him aren’t exactly surprising: the Orioles and White Sox, both in their hitter-friendly home parks. Beyond that, he’s handled the Jays, Royals, and Yanks. The Red Sox obviously veer more toward the O’s and Sox on the spectrum of difficulty, right down to their hitter-friendly park. Archer couldn’t finish five in either outing against Boston last year, so you might just be better looking elsewhere today.
NOT AT ALL CONFIDENT, HERE’S WHY:
Brett Oberholtzer, HOU (v. WAS) – Oberholtzer started the season with four nice starts before getting roughed up by Oakland his last time out and yet despite only one real dud, he’s 0-4. Ahh, the life of an Astros pitcher. The Nats are tops in the league against lefties with a .379 wOBA, look elsewhere today.
Josh Collmenter, ARI (v. COL) – He was admittedly great his last time out (6 IP/0 ER), but he went 4 IP/3 ER and 6 IP/4 ER in the pair before that gem against Philly. The Rockies haven’t mashed righties on the road as they have at home, but they’ve been better of late with a 5.4 R/G average in their last five games – all on the road.
Edwin Jackson, CHC (at CIN) – I’ve always loved EJax, but that doesn’t mean I’m irrational about using him when I’m trying to win at fantasy. He’s better than his 5.02 ERA, but the downside is far too severe to trust him against a Cincy lineup that has been on fire since moving Joey Votto to the #2 spot.
Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against
| Pitcher | wOBA vs L | ERA vs L | wOBA vs R | ERA vs R | AVG | OPS | BABIP | FIP | AVG-A | Pit/G | Strk% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colon | 0.306 | 3.16 | 0.288 | 2.69 | 0.237 | 0.644 | 0.314 | 4.18 | 0.284 | 100.00 | 68.4% |
| Kendrick | 0.314 | 4.07 | 0.347 | 4.95 | 0.215 | 0.607 | 0.292 | 4.65 | 0.277 | 98.00 | 62.0% |
| Morton | 0.366 | 4.92 | 0.272 | 2.57 | 0.279 | 0.732 | 0.284 | 4.64 | 0.252 | 95.80 | 65.8% |
| Tillman | 0.328 | 4.02 | 0.306 | 3.26 | 0.222 | 0.644 | 0.271 | 4.37 | 0.242 | 107.00 | 64.1% |
| Elias | 0.297 | 4.05 | 0.337 | 3.38 | 0.297 | 0.810 | 0.282 | 4.12 | 0.238 | 96.40 | 61.4% |
| Phelps | 0.336 | 4.08 | 0.336 | 5.90 | 0.211 | 0.624 | 0.259 | 5.74 | 0.217 | 59.9% | |
| McAllister | 0.330 | 3.89 | 0.308 | 3.42 | 0.255 | 0.751 | 0.295 | 2.32 | 0.234 | 91.00 | 67.5% |
| Wilson | 0.232 | 2.33 | 0.332 | 3.79 | 0.223 | 0.632 | 0.309 | 3.78 | 0.246 | 114.40 | 58.4% |
| Archer | 0.324 | 3.95 | 0.251 | 2.64 | 0.245 | 0.713 | 0.344 | 2.37 | 0.279 | 95.80 | 65.3% |
| Doubront | 0.310 | 3.68 | 0.338 | 4.86 | 0.223 | 0.617 | 0.321 | 4.88 | 0.291 | 83.20 | 60.1% |
| Harang | 0.332 | 4.65 | 0.311 | 4.46 | 0.269 | 0.751 | 0.200 | 2.23 | 0.139 | 106.00 | 63.2% |
| Eovaldi | 0.322 | 3.90 | 0.282 | 2.77 | 0.238 | 0.680 | 0.330 | 2.16 | 0.254 | 99.60 | 69.1% |
| Jackson | 0.366 | 5.83 | 0.328 | 4.42 | 0.253 | 0.695 | 0.364 | 3.26 | 0.288 | 97.20 | 62.8% |
| Cingrani | 0.238 | 2.94 | 0.300 | 2.97 | 0.264 | 0.721 | 0.257 | 3.48 | 0.196 | 96.80 | 57.9% |
| Chavez | 0.295 | 3.54 | 0.262 | 3.18 | 0.258 | 0.710 | 0.286 | 2.89 | 0.225 | 95.60 | 67.4% |
| Ross | 0.372 | 3.24 | 0.271 | 2.62 | 0.226 | 0.664 | 0.286 | 3.97 | 0.239 | 94.20 | 64.8% |
| Hutchison | 0.363 | 4.70 | 0.287 | 1.74 | 0.264 | 0.687 | 0.364 | 3.20 | 0.265 | 91.80 | 62.3% |
| Ventura | 0.276 | 2.55 | 0.283 | 2.30 | 0.257 | 0.747 | 0.277 | 2.65 | 0.204 | 100.75 | 64.3% |
| Zimmermann | 0.316 | 3.68 | 0.269 | 3.06 | 0.197 | 0.644 | 0.351 | 3.46 | 0.276 | 84.40 | 67.8% |
| Oberholtzer | 0.296 | 2.73 | 0.301 | 3.53 | 0.316 | 0.883 | 0.306 | 4.00 | 0.264 | 91.80 | 64.1% |
| Greinke | 0.325 | 3.15 | 0.253 | 2.20 | 0.266 | 0.789 | 0.273 | 3.53 | 0.214 | 100.80 | 65.3% |
| Gibson | 0.382 | 5.71 | 0.324 | 5.63 | 0.260 | 0.765 | 0.306 | 3.40 | 0.259 | 97.00 | 58.2% |
| Lyles | 0.327 | 5.63 | 0.361 | 4.58 | 0.249 | 0.679 | 0.266 | 3.54 | 0.237 | 91.60 | 62.0% |
| Collmenter | 0.312 | 3.72 | 0.289 | 2.85 | 0.288 | 0.813 | 0.279 | 3.46 | 0.236 | 124.33 | 65.1% |
| Erlin | 0.350 | 6.04 | 0.289 | 4.31 | 0.237 | 0.712 | 0.342 | 2.69 | 0.277 | 100.50 | 64.4% |
| Hudson | 0.296 | 4.16 | 0.270 | 3.02 | 0.227 | 0.604 | 0.229 | 2.68 | 0.199 | 96.00 | 68.3% |
Starting Pitcher Salaries
Click the image below to view pitcher salaries by each daily fantasy site along with their percent of top statistics.
- Percent of Top (Top) – Player salary divided by the most expensive pitcher each day. So if Felix Hernandez is $9,000 on FanDuel and Justin Verlander is $4,500, Verlanders Top stat would be 50.
NOTE: Button for pitcher salary chart above opens in popup window