Daily Pitcher Breakdown: April 8th
The Daily Pitcher Breakdown goes in-depth to look at nearly every pitching option, with a focus on the best targets for each night. Sometimes there will be a best of the rest section featuring guys who are likely low-dollar options with some upside for those of you who prefer to load your lineup with hitting studs.
There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in White are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ
Daily Pitcher Chart
| Pitcher | TM | OPP | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chen | BAL | NYY | 137 | 4.07 | 4.23 | 1.32 | 18.2% | 6.8% | 1.12 | 0.84 | |
| Nova | NYY | BAL | 139.1 | 3.10 | 3.66 | 1.29 | 19.8% | 7.5% | 0.58 | 2.05 | |
| Lohse | MIL | PHI | 198.2 | 3.35 | 4.23 | 1.17 | 15.5% | 4.5% | 1.18 | 1.05 | |
| Kendrick | PHI | MIL | 182 | 4.70 | 4.34 | 1.40 | 13.8% | 5.9% | 0.89 | 1.60 | |
| Cahill | ARI | SFG | 146.2 | 3.99 | 4.37 | 1.42 | 16.0% | 10.2% | 0.80 | 2.34 | |
| Hudson | SFG | ARI | 131.1 | 3.97 | 3.75 | 1.19 | 17.8% | 6.7% | 0.69 | 2.10 | |
| Perez | TEX | BOS | 124.1 | 3.62 | 4.25 | 1.34 | 40.0% | 15.9% | 7.0% | 1.09 | 1.54 |
| Doubront | BOS | TEX | 162.1 | 4.32 | 4.26 | 1.43 | 44.4% | 19.7% | 10.1% | 0.72 | 1.33 |
| Alvarez | MIA | WAS | 102.2 | 3.59 | 4.18 | 1.14 | 41.2% | 13.6% | 6.5% | 0.18 | 2.18 |
| Gonzalez | WAS | MIA | 195.2 | 3.36 | 3.76 | 1.26 | 62.5% | 23.4% | 9.3% | 0.78 | 1.32 |
| Ross | SDP | CLE | 125 | 3.17 | 3.41 | 1.15 | 50.0% | 23.6% | 8.7% | 0.58 | 1.85 |
| Kluber | CLE | SDP | 147.1 | 3.85 | 3.32 | 1.26 | 29.2% | 22.4% | 5.4% | 0.92 | 1.60 |
| Oberholtzer | HOU | TOR | 71.2 | 2.76 | 4.31 | 1.11 | 60.0% | 15.4% | 4.4% | 0.88 | 0.84 |
| Buehrle | TOR | HOU | 203.2 | 4.15 | 4.21 | 1.35 | 48.5% | 15.9% | 5.8% | 1.06 | 1.33 |
| Colon | NYM | ATL | 190.1 | 2.65 | 4.17 | 1.17 | 63.3% | 15.2% | 3.8% | 0.66 | 1.09 |
| Harang | ATL | NYM | 143.1 | 5.40 | 4.22 | 1.35 | 38.5% | 18.1% | 6.4% | 1.63 | 0.81 |
| Morton | PIT | CHC | 116 | 3.26 | 3.52 | 1.28 | 45.0% | 17.2% | 7.3% | 0.47 | 3.37 |
| Jackson | CHC | PIT | 175.1 | 4.98 | 4.04 | 1.46 | 29.0% | 17.4% | 7.6% | 0.82 | 1.81 |
| Archer | TBR | KCR | 128.2 | 3.22 | 3.95 | 1.13 | 52.2% | 19.2% | 7.2% | 1.05 | 1.38 |
| Ventura | KCR | TBR | 15.1 | 3.52 | 4.46 | 1.26 | 0.0% | 17.2% | 9.4% | 1.76 | 1.35 |
| Bailey | CIN | STL | 209 | 3.49 | 3.39 | 1.12 | 50.0% | 23.4% | 6.4% | 0.86 | 1.34 |
| Lynn | STL | CIN | 201.2 | 3.97 | 3.76 | 1.32 | 51.5% | 23.1% | 8.9% | 0.62 | 1.25 |
| Quintana | CWS | COL | 200 | 3.51 | 3.92 | 1.22 | 36.4% | 19.7% | 6.7% | 1.04 | 1.14 |
| Morales | COL | CWS | 25.1 | 4.62 | 4.65 | 1.55 | 0.0% | 18.8% | 13.4% | 0.71 | 1.04 |
| Santiago | LAA | SEA | 149 | 3.56 | 4.34 | 1.40 | 43.5% | 20.9% | 11.0% | 1.03 | 0.84 |
| Paxton | SEA | LAA | 24 | 1.50 | 3.24 | 0.92 | 75.0% | 22.3% | 7.5% | 0.75 | 2.44 |
| Scherzer | DET | LAD | 214.1 | 2.90 | 2.98 | 0.97 | 65.6% | 28.7% | 6.7% | 0.76 | 0.81 |
| Haren | LAD | DET | 169.2 | 4.67 | 3.60 | 1.24 | 43.3% | 21.1% | 4.3% | 1.49 | 0.86 |
Here is a look at the day’s slate of arms and how they might stack in their given matchups.
BEST BUYS:
These aren’t just low-cost guys with good matchups and/or venues, but you will also find expensive studs in here with great matchups. An ace facing another ace won’t find his way in here because the win probability for both is sliced significantly by facing each other.
Gio Gonzalez, WAS (v. MIA) – I’ll gladly let you buy into Miami’s hot start. They’ve got a few decent guys and a true superstar in Giancarlo Stanton, but color me skeptical on Adeiny Hechavarria, Casey McGehee, and Jarrod Saltalamacchia for sure. Gonzalez has a 1.76 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, and 44 Ks in 41 IP against them for his career. They were the National League’s worst team against lefties last year (baseball’s second-worst) and their early surge against some Colorado lefties doesn’t deter me from striking with an ace-level southpaw.
Max Scherzer, DET (at LAD) – Scherzer has become a matchup-proof arm. Winning a Cy Young will do that for you. Obviously the Dodgers aren’t slouches, but they aren’t exactly off to a hot start and they are striking out 24 percent of the time. Even if things don’t go swimmingly, Scherzer should be able to escape with a 6 IP/3 ER/5 K kind of effort that won’t kill you.
Charlie Morton, PIT (at CHC) – I gave him to you in his first start back on April 2nd against the Cubs and he went six shutout innings with six strikeouts en route to a painful no-decision so I’m diving back in for more. Even without a win, he can more than earn his keep with a repeat performance.
Chris Archer, TB (at KC) – Archer was excellent in his season debut against Toronto with six strong innings that included a win and seven strikeouts. The Royals are a high-contact team that doesn’t often strike out, but that didn’t stop Archer from logging seven punchouts against them back in 2012, even when they were the least-fanned team against righties on the season at 16.6 percent.
GOOD BUYS:
This is where a lot of the high-priced big arms with decent or worse matchups will reside. Any top arm can thwart even the toughest lineup, but it’s not always the most sensible buy when they are among the most costly arms on the board. This is also where the ace v. ace matchups will be as they still have the potential for a big score, but just lack the high probability of the ever-important win.
Corey Kluber, CLE (v. SD) – Kluber flamed out in his first start which will push his price down at some spots, but he gets a soft landing in the follow-up here against the Padres. They are scuffling early on as they sit top 10 in strikeout percentage (24%), last in OPS (513), second-to-last in batting average (.189), and dead last in well-hit average by a significant margin as their .078 easily “beats” the Yankees’ .093 for baseball’s worst. And well-hit average is simply the well-struck balls against at-bats, so it’s not just the hits that fall. They aren’t even getting unlucky with hard shots at guys. If Kluber can’t rebound here, we might have to reassess, but I was very high on him coming into the season so I’m not buckling after one dud.
Homer Bailey, CIN (at STL) – Bailey has evolved into a stud arm the last couple of seasons, but the Cardinals have been a team that he can’t quite figure out consistently. He has a 3.91 ERA against them in 48.3 IP over the last two seasons. They trounced him for four earned in 4.3 IP in his season opener, but I’d be willing to bet on a rebound. Guys with his kind of talent often make the adjustments necessary to improve when facing a team five-six days apart.
Bartolo Colon, NYM (at ATL) – You’re never going to feel great rostering him because he’s a thousand years old and pounds, but he just keeps plugging away. He’s not a huge strikeout guy, but when the team is prone to them, he’ll take ‘em as he showed with six outings of 7+ Ks last year including nine against Houston. The Braves were only a few percentage points behind the Stros in strikeout rate last year.
Lance Lynn, STL (v. CIN) – Lynn gave his buyers a dirty win last week against the Reds with a 5 IP/3 ER effort that included eight hits, but also seven strikeouts and the aforementioned win. He had a dud like that (5 IP/4 ER) within his five starts against the Reds last year, but still managed a 3.38 ERA in 32 IP along with 38 Ks thanks to three gems, two of which saw him fan 11 and 10 batters, respectively.
Edwin Jackson, CHC (v. PIT) – The Pirates aren’t exactly ripping the cover off the ball to start the season and even in a rough season last year, Jackson managed a 3.48 ERA and 1.07 WHIP against them in four starts (20.7 IP). He also had 22 strikeouts against just five walks. Four walks kept him from a really good outing against the Pirates last week.
James Paxton, SEA (v. LAA) – He was excellent in his season debut against these Angels last week with seven shutout innings and nine strikeouts. Hopefully he can keep the Angels off-balance again six days later with another strong outing. The Angels were sixth-best in OPS against lefties a season ago and they have some dangerous bats so don’t bet on a replica of the April 2nd outing for Paxton as they get a second look at him.
Hector Santiago, LAA (at SEA) – Look for Santiago to improve upon his debut (5 IP/4 ER). The Mariners were terrible against lefties last year and while they sit eighth so far this season, it’s with a 691 OPS which isn’t too far from last year’s 657 that landed them last in baseball.
Mark Buehrle, TOR (v. HOU) – I’m not really buying into his opening week gem, but the matchup against the Astros is still viable enough to give him a look if you find him cheap enough. I’ve just never been a fan of the pitch-to-contact guys because even in a relatively good outing, they can scatter nine or 10 hits and deliver a rather modest score.
Tyson Ross, SD (at CLE) – Ross was a chic sleeper coming into the season after an incredible close to 2013, but he’s a volatile arm thanks to control issues that creep up from time-to-time. The strikeout ability usually keeps him from a huge implosion, but there is a lot of volatility here.
Yordano Ventura, KC (v. TB) – His 2014 debut goes from a road start against the Tigers to a home start against the Rays… not a bad trade. The Rays have some strong bats in their lineup that can scare you, but they are prone to cold spells, too. Ventura is cheap at some outlets and his strikeout potential gives him huge upside. I wouldn’t want to gamble with him as my only pitcher, though.
USE CAUTION:
Dan Haren, LAD (v. DET) – Plenty to like with a healthy Haren this year and I can envision a scenario where he duels Scherzer for six or seven innings, but it’s a not a high potential proposition so why bet on that happening when there are several other viable options out there?
Aaron Harang, ATL (v. NYM) – I’m torn… because I’m skeptical on that opening outing (with good reason), but the Mets aren’t exactly ripping the cover off the ball right now. Harang’s volatility last year should scare you enough almost regardless of the matchup: seven starts of 6+ ER and eight others allowing no more than one run including a pair of shutouts.
Brett Oberholtzer, HOU (at TOR) – He will have value as a secondary or tertiary (at sites that allow three pitchers) starter throughout the season especially since his price likely won’t be too high and you can just take his six strong innings without needing a win, but I’m too nervous in Toronto, particularly with his insane flyball rate.
Jose Quintana, CWS (at COL) – It’s too big of a slate to mess with him in Colorado, especially when he wasn’t exactly sharp in his season debut.
YOU CAN SAFELY IGNORE:
Couldn’t pay me to use these guys.
- Henderson Alvarez, MIA (at WAS)
- Franklin Morales, COL (v. CWS)
Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against
| Pitcher | wOBA vs L | ERA vs L | wOBA vs R | ERA vs R | AVG | OPS | BABIP | FIP | AVG-A | Pit/G | Strk% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chen | 0.303 | 3.38 | 0.342 | 4.34 | 0.244 | 0.673 | 0.305 | 4.04 | 0.267 | 95.30 | 65.9% |
| Nova | 0.310 | 3.05 | 0.306 | 3.23 | 0.259 | 0.748 | 0.313 | 3.47 | 0.256 | 91.00 | 62.6% |
| Lohse | 0.320 | 3.93 | 0.296 | 2.87 | 0.252 | 0.690 | 0.276 | 4.08 | 0.256 | 94.16 | 66.2% |
| Kendrick | 0.301 | 3.96 | 0.357 | 5.42 | 0.247 | 0.691 | 0.306 | 4.01 | 0.277 | 95.80 | 64.6% |
| Cahill | 0.342 | 3.86 | 0.319 | 4.16 | 0.262 | 0.703 | 0.289 | 4.26 | 0.253 | 91.27 | 59.0% |
| Hudson | 0.300 | 4.71 | 0.292 | 3.27 | 0.259 | 0.719 | 0.281 | 3.46 | 0.242 | 95.52 | 64.9% |
| Perez | 0.338 | 2.89 | 0.315 | 3.86 | 0.265 | 0.746 | 0.292 | 4.23 | 0.264 | 92.90 | 63.5% |
| Doubront | 0.290 | 2.89 | 0.336 | 4.85 | 0.266 | 0.746 | 0.310 | 3.78 | 0.256 | 98.10 | 61.4% |
| Alvarez | 0.330 | 4.15 | 0.239 | 3.11 | 0.255 | 0.721 | 0.271 | 3.18 | 0.234 | 85.35 | 65.5% |
| Gonzalez | 0.252 | 3.26 | 0.312 | 3.43 | 0.233 | 0.658 | 0.286 | 3.41 | 0.228 | 103.59 | 62.5% |
| Ross | 0.323 | 4.24 | 0.249 | 2.20 | 0.247 | 0.720 | 0.282 | 3.20 | 0.221 | 56.60 | 62.2% |
| Kluber | 0.331 | 3.96 | 0.309 | 3.80 | 0.241 | 0.663 | 0.329 | 3.30 | 0.268 | 88.08 | 64.9% |
| Oberholtzer | 0.325 | 2.79 | 0.271 | 2.82 | 0.240 | 0.674 | 0.260 | 3.65 | 0.237 | 84.69 | 66.8% |
| Buehrle | 0.323 | 4.47 | 0.335 | 4.12 | 0.250 | 0.681 | 0.305 | 4.10 | 0.273 | 99.97 | 63.2% |
| Colon | 0.297 | 2.86 | 0.281 | 2.45 | 0.252 | 0.727 | 0.294 | 3.23 | 0.261 | 92.57 | 68.7% |
| Harang | 0.346 | 5.40 | 0.343 | 5.32 | 0.236 | 0.667 | 0.288 | 4.79 | 0.264 | 94.04 | 64.2% |
| Morton | 0.382 | 5.28 | 0.249 | 1.99 | 0.240 | 0.686 | 0.306 | 3.60 | 0.256 | 85.75 | 63.2% |
| Jackson | 0.366 | 6.00 | 0.325 | 4.29 | 0.241 | 0.693 | 0.322 | 3.79 | 0.276 | 94.58 | 60.9% |
| Archer | 0.350 | 4.44 | 0.211 | 1.64 | 0.258 | 0.686 | 0.253 | 4.07 | 0.223 | 91.43 | 63.5% |
| Ventura | 0.311 | 3.38 | 0.302 | 3.86 | 0.251 | 0.735 | 0.227 | 5.33 | 0.224 | 81.00 | 61.7% |
| Bailey | 0.330 | 3.78 | 0.257 | 3.27 | 0.280 | 0.750 | 0.284 | 3.31 | 0.231 | 102.88 | 66.5% |
| Lynn | 0.340 | 5.08 | 0.291 | 3.26 | 0.252 | 0.717 | 0.314 | 3.28 | 0.246 | 101.55 | 63.8% |
| Quintana | 0.315 | 3.21 | 0.304 | 3.66 | 0.269 | 0.717 | 0.283 | 3.82 | 0.244 | 101.06 | 63.0% |
| Morales | 0.215 | 1.80 | 0.423 | 7.07 | 0.242 | 0.670 | 0.310 | 4.55 | 0.255 | 22.35 | 59.7% |
| Santiago | 0.316 | 3.07 | 0.339 | 3.83 | 0.229 | 0.656 | 0.289 | 4.44 | 0.241 | 79.32 | 61.5% |
| Paxton | 0.347 | 2.45 | 0.221 | 1.33 | 0.258 | 0.750 | 0.203 | 3.26 | 0.172 | 96.00 | 63.8% |
| Scherzer | 0.283 | 3.08 | 0.222 | 2.73 | 0.268 | 0.724 | 0.259 | 2.74 | 0.196 | 105.88 | 65.9% |
| Haren | 0.314 | 5.06 | 0.345 | 4.35 | 0.290 | 0.786 | 0.302 | 4.09 | 0.264 | 89.61 | 65.4% |
Starting Pitcher Salaries
Click the image below to view pitcher salaries by each daily fantasy site along with their percent of top statistics.
- Percent of Top (Top) – Player salary divided by the most expensive pitcher each day. So if Felix Hernandez is $9,000 on FanDuel and Justin Verlander is $4,500, Verlanders Top stat would be 50.
NOTE: Button for pitcher salary chart above opens in popup window