Daily Pitcher Breakdown: April 9th, 2013
In this article I’ll break down in-depth starting pitcher stats and color code them so you can see which players you should be targeting and avoiding today based on some sabermetrics and other stats that I have created based on studying the starting pitcher position.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in White are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
For a description of each stat below and the tiers used for them, check out this pop up window FAQ Page by clicking here
Performance and Talent Statistics: April 9th, 2013
NOTE: Venue and Secondary color-coded stats can be found after the pitcher breakdown portion of the article
| PLAYER | PERFORMANCE | TALENT | |||||||||
| PITCHER | TM | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | IMP% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beckett | LAD | 170.3 | 4.65 | 4.16 | 1.33 | 32.0% | 18.0% | 18.1% | 7.1% | 1.11 | 1.16 |
| Richard (L) | SDP | 218.7 | 3.99 | 4.22 | 1.23 | 42.0% | 18.0% | 11.8% | 4.6% | 1.28 | 1.93 |
| Gee | NYM | 109.7 | 4.1 | 3.53 | 1.25 | 47.0% | 12.0% | 21.0% | 6.3% | 0.98 | 1.7 |
| Lee (L) | PHI | 211 | 3.16 | 3 | 1.11 | 57.0% | 17.0% | 24.4% | 3.3% | 1.11 | 1.22 |
| Pettitte (L) | NYY | 129 | 2.87 | 3.3 | 1.14 | 50.0% | 17.0% | 22.8% | 6.9% | 0.96 | 1.95 |
| Carrasco [‘11] | CLE | 124.7 | 4.62 | 4.16 | 1.36 | 33.3% | 23.8% | 15.9% | 7.5% | 1.08 | 1.44 |
| Medlen | ATL | 138 | 1.57 | 2.85 | 0.91 | 83.0% | 0.0% | 23.1% | 4.4% | 0.39 | 1.9 |
| LeBlanc (L) | MIA | 68.7 | 3.67 | 4.56 | 1.31 | 22.0% | 22.0% | 15.1% | 6.7% | 0.92 | 0.75 |
| Hernandez | TB | 14.3 | 7.53 | 5.51 | 1.4 | 0.0% | 33.0% | 3.2% | 4.8% | 2.51 | 1.65 |
| Tepesch | TEX | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | MLB | DEBUT | – |
| Peralta | MIL | 29 | 2.48 | 3.84 | 1.21 | 40.0% | 0.0% | 20.4% | 9.7% | 0 | 2.33 |
| Wood (L) | CHC | 156 | 4.27 | 4.41 | 1.2 | 38.0% | 23.0% | 18.3% | 8.3% | 1.44 | 0.78 |
| Pelfrey | MIN | 19.7 | 2.29 | 3.63 | 1.42 | 67.0% | 0.0% | 15.3% | 4.7% | 0 | 2.69 |
| Guthrie | KC | 181.7 | 4.76 | 4.73 | 1.41 | 41.0% | 31.0% | 12.8% | 6.4% | 1.49 | 1.13 |
| Arroyo | CIN | 202 | 3.74 | 4.18 | 1.21 | 44.0% | 13.0% | 15.5% | 4.2% | 1.16 | 1.11 |
| Lynn | STL | 176 | 3.78 | 3.56 | 1.32 | 48.0% | 14.0% | 24.2% | 8.6% | 0.82 | 1.36 |
| McDonald | PIT | 171 | 4.21 | 4.14 | 1.26 | 45.0% | 17.0% | 21.2% | 9.7% | 1.11 | 0.99 |
| McCarthy | ARI | 111 | 3.24 | 4.25 | 1.25 | 67.0% | 11.0% | 15.6% | 5.1% | 0.81 | 1.15 |
| Parker | OAK | 181.3 | 3.47 | 4.15 | 1.26 | 55.2% | 17.2% | 18.6% | 8.4% | 0.55 | 1.47 |
| Wilson (L) | LAA | 202.3 | 3.83 | 4.19 | 1.34 | 44.1% | 11.8% | 20.0% | 10.5% | 0.85 | 1.68 |
| Bedard (L) | HOU | 125.7 | 5.01 | 4.12 | 1.47 | 33.3% | 25.0% | 21.2% | 10.1% | 1 | 1.3 |
| Maurer | SEA | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Nicasio | COL | 58 | 5.28 | 4 | 1.62 | 36.4% | 36.4% | 21.0% | 8.6% | 1.09 | 1.11 |
| Lincecum | SF | 186 | 5.18 | 3.97 | 1.47 | 30.0% | 30.0% | 23.0% | 10.9% | 1.11 | 1.51 |
- A whopping 22 of Beckett’s 54 (41%) plate appearances against current Padres are tied up in Mark Kotsay matchup (.333 AVG, 843 OPS) and the 37-year old outfielder might not even play so it will be a lot of new faces for Beckett. Virtually everyone excels in Petco Park, though, so you were already looking at Beckett anyway.
- Richard is the classic home-only guy propped up by his home park making him an intriguing start especially in spots where his price isn’t adjusted for a home start.
- Matt Kemp (1081 OPS) and Juan Uribe (1159) have ripped in their careers over 33 and 28 PA, respectively. Each has a pair of home runs, too.
- Richard faced the Dodgers six times last year posting a 3.79 ERA and 1.18 WHIP in 35.7 IP with just 18 strikeouts. The starts were split evenly between home and away; the Dodgers got to him just once with four earned in 3.7 IP while the other two in Petco were seven inning gems.
- The Phillies own Gee with a career 6.46 ERA against them, but last year’s was a more palatable 4.38 in two starts.
- No Phillie has more than 10 PA against him. Ryan Howard has two hits in seven at-bats, but both are home runs.
- John Buck has a chance to stay hot facing a pitcher he has had plenty of success against throughout his career. In 54 PA, he has a .292 AVG and 912 OPS with three homers and three doubles included among his 14 hits.
- Ruben Tejada (1115 OPS), Lucas Duda (915), Marlon Byrd (840), and Daniel Murphy (824) have all had some success against Lee in samples ranging from 14 to 22 PA while their superstar, David Wright, has struggled by comparison with a 619 OPS in his 21 PA.
- Despite an extensive career in the majors, Pettitte’s largest sample against current Indians is just 11 PA which he has had against Mike Aviles (1010 OPS) and Asdrubal Cabrera (545).
- Carrasco hasn’t pitched in the majors since 2011 and has just 191.7 career IP as a big leaguer thus no Yankee has more than 6 PA against him.
- Medlen smoked the Marlins last year with a 1.50 ERA and 0.75 WHIP in 24 IP.
- But he may want to watch out for Donovan Solano of all people who has smoked him in just 8 PA with a .571 AVG (4-for-7) with 2 HR, 3 RBI, and a walk yielding a filthy 2054 OPS.
- Might LeBlanc be able to cool Justin Upton off? Upton is unconscious right now with an MLB-best 6 HR and 1641 OPS, but LeBlanc has held him to a .125 AVG and 488 OPS in their 20 meetings. I’d still bet on J-Up right now, but I’m actually quite intrigued to see this matchup now.
- BJ Upton, Jason Heyward, and Dan Uggla all have a home run against the southpaw.
- The former Fausto Carmona owned AJ Pierzynski back in their AL Central days holding the catcher to a .226 AVG and 563 OPS in 33 meetings. Ian Kinsler has been even worse in 20 attempts at .118 and 426.
- Meanwhile, they might be able to get some tips from Adrian Beltre and Nelson Cruz who have eight hits between them with five combine homers (three for Cruz).
Nick Tepesch
- Making his MLB Debut.
- No work vs. the Cubs in his 34.3 MLB IP.
- Wood has a 3.40 ERA and 0.83 WHIP in 39.7 IP against the Brewers for his career starting against them twice per year during his three MLB seasons and never having a WHIP higher than 0.88 in any season.
- Ryan Braun has been the lone standout among current Brewers with a .353 AVG and 1118 OPS. Of his six hits, he has four doubles and a homer.
- Pelfrey, unsurprisingly given his NL history, hasn’t faced the majority of the Royals team with 36 of his 45 PA against them tied up in Jeff Francoeur (22) and Miguel Tejada (13).
- They’ve been on opposite ends of the success spectrum against him with Francoeur posting a 988 OPS while Tejada has just a 226 OPS.
- Guthrie has been a new pitcher with the Royals posting a 3.06 ERA and 1.12 WHIP in 97 IP since coming over last season.
- He’ll have to avoid the M&M boys today against the Twins as they have both popped him in short samples. Justin Morneau has a .357 AVG and 1329 OPS in 15 PA including a pair of homers and doubles while Joe Mauer is hitting a cool .500 with a 1415 OPS including a bomb.
- Arroyo has a season worth of innings against the Cards with a 4.56 ERA and 1.34 WHIP in 199.3 IP.
- Matt Holliday (966 OPS) and Yadier Molina (381) have both logged north of 40 PA against him with 48 and 43, respectively. Holliday’s damage includes three homers.
- Carlos Beltran (993 OPS) and Jon Jay (1080) have both logged 25 or more PA against him with Beltran nabbing 26 and Jay at exactly 25.
- Despite being division foes, Lynn has just 13 PA against current Reds spread out amongst eight players.
- McDonald is essentially coming in clean against this D’Backs team with only Martin Prado (11 PA) having faced him more than 10 times. For the record, Prado has a 697 OPS in those meetings.
- McCarthy has only faced three current Pirates: Travis Snider (7 PA), John McDonald (5), and Russell Martin (3).
- Parker owned the Angels last year in four starts with a 2.60 ERA and 1.08 WHIP over 27.7 IP with 21 Ks and 4 BBs.
- Mike Trout did hit .333 against him in 14 PA, but it was just four singles in 12 AB along with a walk and hit-by-pitch.
- Josh Hamilton was 0-for-8 with 6 Ks against Parker last year (with Texas, of course) while Mark Trumbo was 0-for-8 with 5 Ks.
CJ Wilson
- Wilson has handled the A’s since becoming a starter in 2010 with a 3.01 ERA and 1.20 WHIP in 77.7 IP.
- Four guys (Coco Crisp, Josh Reddick, Scott Sizemore, and Josh Donaldson) have 10+ PA Wilson going 9-for-59 (.153 AVG) with 2 HR (Sizemore and Donaldson).
Erik Bedard
- Safeco is a familiar place for Bedard as he spent two and a half injury-riddled years with the Mariners.
- He hasn’t faced this young team much with Raul Ibanez leading the charge with 15 PA (578 OPS) against him.
- This is Maurer’s second MLB start, but the Astros are striking out in 34% of their plate appearances making even an inexperienced Maurer very appealing.
- Nicasio has only faced three current Giants and one was Matt Cain.
- Despite his struggles last year, Lincecum had a 3.15 ERA in three starts spanning 20.3 IP against the Rockies at home.
- Some Rockies have gaudy numbers against Lincecum, but as you might have guessed, the damage is mostly done in Coors. In 10 career outings vs. Colorado in AT&T Park, Lincecum has a 2.91 ERA and 1.28 WHIP in 68 IP.
In Venue and Secondary Stats: April 9th, 2013
| PLAYER | IN VENUE (CAREER) | SECONDARY STATS | |||||||
| PITCHER | TM | IP | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% | HR/9 | D-Eff. | wRC+ L/R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Beckett | LAD | 26.3 | 2.73 | 1.18 | 28% | 6% | 0.34 | 0.717 | 0 |
| C.Richard (L) | SDP | 284 | 2.82 | 1.14 | 18% | 8% | 0.73 | 0.716 | 0 |
| D.Gee | NYM | 18 | 9.00 | 1.83 | 15% | 11% | 1.50 | 0.71 | 0 |
| C.Lee (L) | PHI | 270 | 2.60 | 1.04 | 27% | 4% | 0.87 | 0.702 | 0 |
| A.Pettitte (L) | NYY | 65.7 | 3.84 | 1.58 | 11% | 10% | 0.96 | 0.704 | 0 |
| C.Carrasco [2011] | CLE | 91.7 | 5.99 | 1.58 | 12% | 8% | 1.37 | 0.7 | 0 |
| K.Medlen | ATL | 12 | 0.00 | 0.67 | 25% | 5% | 0.00 | 0.716 | 0 |
| W.LeBlanc (L) | MIA | 33.3 | 3.24 | 1.17 | 11% | 5% | 0.81 | 0.7 | 0 |
| R.Hernandez | TB | 31.3 | 3.73 | 1.37 | 15% | 10% | 0.58 | 0.723 | 0 |
| N.Tepesch | TEX | – | – | – | – | – | – | 0.708 | 0 |
| W.Peralta | MIL | – | – | – | – | – | – | 0.687 | 0 |
| T.Wood (L) | CHC | 97 | 4.36 | 1.14 | 19% | 8% | 1.39 | 0.709 | 0 |
| M.Pelfrey | MIN | – | – | – | – | – | – | 0.706 | 0 |
| J.Guthrie | KC | 82 | 3.29 | 1.10 | 14% | 7% | 0.55 | 0.682 | 0 |
| B.Arroyo | CIN | 88 | 5.42 | 1.42 | 16% | 6% | 1.13 | 0.712 | 0 |
| L.Lynn | STL | 92 | 3.13 | 1.09 | 27% | 8% | 0.68 | 0.702 | 0 |
| J.McDonald | PIT | 8.3 | 6.48 | 1.20 | 22% | 11% | 1.08 | 0.714 | 0 |
| B.McCarthy | ARI | 5 | 10.80 | 1.80 | 4% | 0% | 0.00 | 0.699 | 0 |
| J.Parker | OAK | 7 | 1.29 | 0.86 | 8% | 8% | 0.00 | 0.721 | 0 |
| C.Wilson (L) | LAA | 129.3 | 3.48 | 1.28 | 20% | 9% | 0.56 | 0.723 | 0 |
| E.Bedard (L) | HOU | 162.3 | 3.60 | 1.29 | 24% | 10% | 0.94 | 0.693 | 0 |
| B.Maurer | SEA | – | – | – | – | – | – | 0.718 | 0 |
| J.Nicasio | COL | 6 | 4.50 | 1.67 | 12% | 4% | 0.00 | 0.675 | 0 |
| T.Lincecum | SF | 628.3 | 3.24 | 1.24 | 25% | 9% | 0.52 | 0.711 | 0 |