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Daily Pitcher Breakdown: August 19th, 2013

by PSporer Last Updated 2013-08-19 18:07:54

Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown. I will focus on the top selections of the day and give you a breakdown on why they are set up for success against their given opponent. Sometimes there will be a best of the rest section featuring guys who are likely low-dollar options with some upside for those of you who prefer to load your lineup with hitting studs.

There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.

LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in White are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE

View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ

Performance and Talent Statistics: August 19th, 2013

PLAYER PERFORMANCE TALENT
PITCHER TM IP ERA SIERA WHIP GEM% K% BB% HR/9 G/F
Price TBR 119.1 3.17 3.47 1.06 55.6% 19.9% 3.4% 1.06 1.31
Tillman BAL 140.0 3.73 4.13 1.29 50.0% 20.4% 8.8% 1.54 1.00
Manship COL 10.0 7.20 5.34 1.70 0.0% 8.7% 10.9% 1.80 2.57
Martin PHI 14.1 6.28 4.45 1.81 0.0% 22.9% 11.4% 2.51 0.46
Delgado ARI 71.2 3.52 4.00 1.26 36.4% 16.7% 4.4% 1.51 1.20
Arroyo CIN 148.2 3.51 4.26 1.14 58.3% 14.5% 4.3% 1.15 1.25
Ryu LAD 148.1 2.91 3.76 1.23 60.9% 19.9% 7.1% 0.73 1.62
Fernandez MIA 139.2 2.45 3.29 1.02 56.5% 26.9% 8.7% 0.52 1.41
Harrell HOU 124.2 5.34 5.15 1.66 35.0% 12.9% 12.4% 1.16 1.93
Garza TEX 100.1 3.23 3.76 1.11 50.0% 20.9% 6.1% 1.08 0.94
Zimmermann WAS 151.0 3.10 3.67 1.09 62.5% 18.6% 4.7% 0.83 1.59
Samardzija CHC 159.1 4.29 3.65 1.36 44.0% 23.8% 9.2% 0.90 1.51
Miller STL 121.1 2.89 3.22 1.14 39.1% 26.8% 7.1% 0.89 0.92
Estrada MIL 80.1 4.71 3.70 1.23 35.7% 20.9% 5.4% 1.68 0.94
Salazar CLE 17.2 4.08 2.65 0.96 33.3% 31.9% 7.3% 2.04 1.13
Weaver LAA 103.1 2.87 3.96 1.10 58.8% 19.7% 5.8% 0.87 0.75
Harang SEA 102.2 5.79 4.29 1.31 35.0% 16.1% 5.2% 1.67 0.87
Parker OAK 138.0 4.04 4.58 1.23 50.0% 16.7% 8.7% 1.11 1.06
Liriano PIT 105.0 2.83 3.57 1.26 66.7% 24.4% 10.1% 0.43 2.09
Cashner SDP 123.1 3.87 4.21 1.29 35.0% 16.1% 7.7% 0.73 1.71
Lester BOS 150.1 4.37 3.91 1.34 40.0% 20.0% 7.6% 1.08 1.35
Lincecum SFG 142.0 4.18 3.49 1.27 37.5% 25.1% 8.9% 0.95 1.44

STARTING PITCHER BREAKDOWN

Here is a look at the day’s slate of arms and how they might stack in their given matchups.

BEST BUYS:

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These aren’t just low-cost guys with good matchups and/or venues, but you will also find expensive studs in here with great matchups. An ace facing another ace won’t find his way in here because the win probability for both is sliced significantly by facing each other.

Matt Garza, TEX (v. HOU) – Garza’s allowed exactly 4 ER in each of his last three outings including a 7 IP affair against the Astros, but he still earned the win and fanned eight keeping his scores high that day. I like him even more in the follow-up. His command has been a little iffy in this run as he’s allowed five homers in the three starts, but he’s still missing bats and he went 8 IP (which was technically a complete game) in one of them, too.

Jered Weaver, LAA (v. CLE) – Weaver was trounced in the Bronx last week, but let’s not be hasty with judgment. Bad days happen, even to good starters. He’d been rolling before that with a 1.49 ERA in 36.3 IP since the All-Star break over five starts. The Yanks got to him for 9 ER in just 5 IP thanks to 12 base runners and a pair of homers. The start before that he went 7 IP/2 ER while logging his seventh win and that came against these Indians. They have been horrid against righties this month with a league-worst .265 wOBA including a 23% strikeout rate.

David Price, TB (at BAL) – Price has a pair of 7 IP/4 ER outings in his nine starts since returning from the DL, but he’s given up six runs in the other seven combined which is why he has a 1.77 ERA in his 71.3 IP. He’s been unreal going at least 7 IP in all nine and allowing just three walks leading to a silly 0.74 WHIP. The O’s haven’t been great against lefties on the season, but they’ve improved in August with fourth-highest wOBA at .367 and yet I’m not overwhelmingly concerned as Price has handled all comers of late. The Jays at home and the Mariners in Tampa were the teams to get those 4 ER on him, but he still brought value in both earning the W against Toronto and notching seven Ks against Seattle.

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Jordan Zimmermann, WAS (at CHC) – Zimm closed July with a whimper allowing 12 ER in his last two starts, but he’s been awesome in August allowing just three earned in his three starts so far spanning 17 IP. He’s still been walking a lot more than normal (something that plagued him in those final two July starts) with 8 BB so far – he walked 10 in 11 starts spanning April and May. As he regains his pinpoint command, he will become even more deadly and facing a team like the Cubs is good practice for just that.

Shelby Miller, STL (at MIL) – I think people freak out with every bad start for Miller because he is a rookie and there isn’t much of a track record to go off of so they think the other shoe is dropping. Alas, he’s bounced back from every little lull he’s had this season and still maintains a sub-3.00 ERA through 23 starts. He was a little wobbly in his last outing against Pittsburgh (6 IP/2 ER, but 10 base runners and 2 HRs), but considering that it came just six days after he lasted one batter who smashed the ball off of his elbow, it was pretty good. The Brewers have fallen apart offensively (and not just because Ryan Braun is gone) topping only the Indians against righties with a .273 wOBA so far this month. Meanwhile, Miller has allowed just one run against them in 13 IP this year with 13 Ks and that was with Braun.

Jon Lester, BOS (at SF) – Lester has quietly been solid since the break posting a 3.19 ERA despite a 4.3 IP/6 ER thrashing against Arizona. He has 29 Ks and a 4.8 K/BB ratio in the five starts, too. The Giants are terrible at the dish and rate as one of the worst five against lefties for the month and the season with the numbers getting worse in their pitching-friendly ballpark. This sets up very favorably for Lester.

GOOD BUYS:

This is where a lot of the high-priced big arms with decent or worse matchups will reside. Any top arm can thwart even the toughest lineup, but it’s not always the most sensible buy when they are among the most costly arms on the board. This is also where the ace v. ace matchups will be as they still have the potential for a big score, but just lack the high probability of the ever-important win.

francisco-liriano-300x200

Francisco Liriano, PIT (at SD) / Andrew Cashner, SD (v. PIT) – We should have a major pitcher’s duel on our hands here as Liriano rebounded brilliantly from his Coors Field flameout with a complete game against St. Louis and gets a lowly Padres offense in their spacious home ballpark. They do hit lefties better overall, but this is no ordinary lefty. Cashner comes alive in the friendly confines of Petco Park posting a 2.51 ERA and 1.08 WHIP compared to a 4.93 and 1.41 on the road. Cashner is obviously a better bang-for-the-buck especially with Pirates being just as bad offensively as the Padres, though we may be looking at a no-decision for both here.

Jose Fernandez, MIA (v. LAD) / Hyun-Jin Ryu, LAD (at MIA) – This isn’t ace-vs.-ace, but the combination of factors leaves these two very close when it’s all said and done. Fernandez is a clear ace, but he’s facing a tough Dodgers team and has terrible offense support. Ryu, meanwhile, is more of a mid-rotation guy (though he is on fire of late with four straight 2 ER or fewer starts), but he gets the pathetic Marlins lineup plus the support of the Dodgers lineup and bullpen. At sites where wins don’t score so big, I would lean toward Fernandez if I were to choose someone from this game. If wins are big – or more importantly if losses score negatively, then you might lean toward Ryu who will be better positioned for a W and cost less. Fernandez’s low win probability and sky-high price make him cost prohibitive in most situations, though his insane strikeout ability is sometimes too much to resist.

Chris Tillman, BAL (v. TB) – He’s gotten progressively better against the Rays in his three starts against them going 5 IP/4 ER in April, then 6 IP/3 ER in May, and finally 6 IP/2 ER his last time against them in June. He has a 2.88 ERA in five starts since the All-Star break despite a 6 ER shellacking from the Mariners and he’s also logged 30 Ks in those 34.3 IP. He’s a solid option more often than not and he actually does better against the best teams with 3.51 ERA against those with a .500 or better win percentage (3.96 against the rest).

jarrod-parker-300x200

Jarrod Parker, OAK (v. SEA) – The Mariners have cooled a bit offensively failing to top five runs in a single game during their last nine so Parker gets them at a perfect time. He’s been brilliant since early May with only one truly terrible start (5 IP/6 ER on Jul 28th v. LAA) in that 17-start span. He’s allowed three or fewer runs in each of the other 16 starts yielding a 2.81 ERA in the span and bringing his season numbers down from 7.34 to 3.87 in the process.

USE CAUTION:

Marco Estrada, MIL (v. STL) – Estrada has been great in his two starts since returning from the DL, but they’ve come against the Giants and Rangers. It feels weird to say it like that when talking about the Rangers, but they haven’t been special offensively with a .295 wOBA against righties since the break and just .299 in August. The Cardinals are rolling in August with 5.3 R/G, but a lot of that is built off of the 13, 13, and 15 runs they scored in a four game span to start the month. They’ve scored just 3.8 in their last nine, six of which came against the Cubs. The problem with Estrada is his blowup potential because of home runs, but if he commands the ball as he has in the last two, he’ll be fine. It’s risky, so be careful.

Bronson Arroyo, CIN (v. ARI) / Randall Delgado, ARI (at CIN) – Both of these guys are fine, I just don’t see a great deal of upside with either. Arroyo is always risky because even when he’s going well, his downside is a night-ruiner (3.7 IP/7 ER v. STL on Aug 2nd). Admittedly he’s had a great season and he bounced back from that dud with a pair of 7 IP gems allowing one earned to San Diego and shutting out the Cubs. The D’Backs are better than both, though, and they’ve been churning out 4.9 R/G this month. Delgado’s command has been a bit wobbly this month with 5 HRs allowed in 18 IP this month and a homer-haven like Great American Ballpark could exacerbate the problem. I’d take Arroyo if either, but there are better risks out there if you’re looking to avoid the obvious studs to get an edge.

danny-salazar-300x200

Danny Salazar, CLE (at LAA) – Regardless of how he pitches, you can almost guarantee that Salazar will get some strikeouts which is always good because they can help mitigate a mediocre outing and take the sting out of a horrible one, too. The Angels are no pushover with an above league average wOBA against righties for both the month and season so those Ks will likely come in handy today as Salazar definitely has his work cut out for him.

Jeff Samardzija, CHC (v. WAS) – He’s struggled through three August starts allowing 16 ER in 15.3 IP with nine walks and his presence on the Cubs already puts him behind the eight ball with his win probability (6-11 W-L record) so despite a modest hitting Nats offense as his opponent, I see no reason to mess with him in this spot. His price is way too high at some sites and there are better, cheaper options at those where his price is lowered to something more commensurate with his production this year.

NOT AT ALL CONFIDENT, HERE’S WHY:

Tim Lincecum, SF (v. BOS) – He isn’t much better at his pitcher-friendly home park and he gets MLB’s best team against righties by wOBA both for the month and the season. Where’s the upside?

Aaron Harang, SEA (at OAK) – He’s allowed 7 ER in three of his last six outings and two of his last three, though he’s allowed a total of 5 ER in the other three. In other words, who knows what to expect from him? But the downside is too plentiful to mess around with him.

YOU CAN SAFELY IGNORE:

Couldn’t pay me to use these guys.

ADVANCED METRICS: August 19th, 2013

VS. L/R HANDED BATTERS OPP vs L/R OTHER ADVANCED STATS
PITCHER wOBA L ERA L wOBA R ERA R AVG OPS BABIP FIP AVG-A Pit/G Strk%
Price 0.253 3.48 0.304 3.27 0.249 0.705 0.281 3.46 0.245 102.65 69.1%
Tillman 0.311 3.67 0.338 3.84 0.251 0.733 0.276 4.72 0.247 109.61 63.0%
Manship 0.371 8.44 0.376 5.79 0.254 0.698 0.286 6.34 0.293 87.50 57.7%
Martin 0.429 3.86 0.358 8.59 0.267 0.754 0.333 6.11 0.290 94.67 59.5%
Delgado 0.368 3.55 0.315 3.49 0.247 0.714 0.298 4.43 0.276 90.58 66.1%
Arroyo 0.339 4.04 0.259 2.69 0.256 0.715 0.266 4.12 0.250 95.74 66.5%
Ryu 0.345 3.75 0.284 2.65 0.224 0.632 0.294 3.33 0.246 104.00 64.3%
Fernandez 0.262 2.91 0.239 1.99 0.272 0.732 0.249 2.77 0.187 91.78 66.4%
Harrell 0.349 5.48 0.403 5.17 0.260 0.737 0.301 5.36 0.279 89.88 57.8%
Garza 0.299 3.45 0.309 3.38 0.234 0.669 0.261 3.75 0.225 107.73 64.0%
Zimmermann 0.300 2.66 0.294 3.46 0.243 0.704 0.268 3.39 0.233 100.09 68.2%
Samardzija 0.349 4.84 0.317 3.98 0.253 0.712 0.316 3.60 0.250 105.16 62.7%
Miller 0.339 3.75 0.256 2.37 0.249 0.706 0.293 3.09 0.226 98.91 66.8%
Estrada 0.305 3.69 0.349 5.71 0.284 0.764 0.287 4.47 0.257 92.36 64.4%
Salazar 0.171 2.45 0.439 6.75 0.273 0.759 0.211 4.34 0.188 87.67 69.6%
Weaver 0.299 3.70 0.318 3.21 0.249 0.722 0.270 3.55 0.232 106.63 63.0%
Harang 0.348 5.98 0.352 5.36 0.245 0.712 0.284 4.86 0.267 96.58 64.9%
Parker 0.325 4.32 0.297 3.48 0.251 0.736 0.254 4.49 0.231 97.13 62.5%
Liriano 0.195 2.45 0.302 2.79 0.256 0.735 0.294 2.88 0.223 101.35 62.5%
Cashner 0.320 4.41 0.303 3.43 0.243 0.700 0.286 3.79 0.251 85.88 63.4%
Lester 0.353 4.55 0.328 4.27 0.254 0.670 0.305 3.96 0.259 111.21 63.5%
Lincecum 0.308 4.19 0.311 4.56 0.285 0.816 0.298 3.48 0.235 106.43 61.9%

Starting Pitcher Salaries: August 19th, 2013

Click the image below to view pitcher salaries by each daily fantasy site along with their percent of top statistics.

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About the Author

PSporer
PSporer

Paul has been writing about baseball for 15 years at various internet outlets and he’s been an avid fantasy baseballer for 21 of his 33 years on this planet, joining his first league at 12 years old which is still running today. He writes a comprehensive starting pitcher guide each year and it’s now available thespguide.com. When’s he’s not watching baseball, he is sleeping, because why would anyone waste time being awake if they weren’t going to watch baseball? He writes three times a week and has his own podcast at Fangraphs with co-hosts Eno Sarris & Jason Collette, contributes to Rotowire, and he has been a guest co-host with Matthew Berry on ESPN’s Fantasy Focus podcast.