Daily Pitcher Breakdown: August 24th, 2013
Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown. I will focus on the top selections of the day and give you a breakdown on why they are set up for success against their given opponent. Sometimes there will be a best of the rest section featuring guys who are likely low-dollar options with some upside for those of you who prefer to load your lineup with hitting studs.
There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in White are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ
Performance and Talent Statistics: August 24th, 2013
| PLAYER | PERFORMANCE | TALENT | |||||||||
| PITCHER | TM | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hendriks | MIN | 16.0 | 3.94 | 4.68 | 1.31 | 33.3% | 11.4% | 2.9% | 1.69 | 0.91 | |
| McAllister | CLE | 91.1 | 3.74 | 4.43 | 1.36 | 52.9% | 17.5% | 8.1% | 0.79 | 0.93 | |
| Delgado | ARI | 71.2 | 3.52 | 4.00 | 1.26 | 33.3% | 16.7% | 4.4% | 1.51 | 1.20 | |
| Martin | PHI | 14.1 | 6.28 | 4.45 | 1.81 | 25.0% | 22.9% | 11.4% | 2.51 | 0.46 | |
| Zimmermann | WAS | 158.0 | 3.02 | 3.72 | 1.09 | 60.0% | 18.1% | 4.8% | 0.80 | 1.59 | |
| Davis | KCR | 119.1 | 5.43 | 4.33 | 1.75 | 30.4% | 18.6% | 9.2% | 1.06 | 1.25 | |
| Manship | COL | 10.0 | 7.20 | 5.34 | 1.70 | 0.0% | 8.7% | 10.9% | 1.80 | 2.57 | |
| Fernandez | MIA | 139.2 | 2.45 | 3.29 | 1.02 | 58.3% | 26.9% | 8.7% | 0.52 | 1.41 | |
| Peralta | MIL | 148.2 | 4.60 | 4.37 | 1.43 | 38.5% | 15.0% | 8.9% | 0.85 | 2.13 | |
| Arroyo | CIN | 155.2 | 3.35 | 4.15 | 1.10 | 56.0% | 15.1% | 4.1% | 1.10 | 1.25 | |
| Sabathia | NYY | 171.1 | 4.83 | 3.86 | 1.35 | 30.8% | 19.7% | 6.7% | 1.42 | 1.31 | |
| Price | TBR | 126.1 | 3.28 | 3.44 | 1.04 | 52.6% | 20.2% | 3.4% | 1.00 | 1.31 | |
| Wang | TOR | 24.0 | 7.12 | 4.13 | 1.83 | 40.0% | 10.2% | 7.4% | 1.50 | 3.29 | |
| Peacock | HOU | 48.1 | 5.59 | 4.60 | 1.45 | 25.0% | 19.9% | 11.6% | 2.05 | 0.71 | |
| Scherzer | DET | 172.1 | 2.82 | 2.93 | 0.90 | 68.0% | 28.1% | 5.8% | 0.73 | 0.91 | |
| Harvey | NYM | 171.2 | 2.25 | 2.67 | 0.89 | 64.0% | 28.4% | 4.7% | 0.37 | 1.43 | |
| Teheran | ATL | 149.0 | 2.96 | 3.66 | 1.18 | 54.2% | 21.2% | 5.5% | 1.03 | 0.97 | |
| Miller | STL | 127.1 | 2.97 | 3.26 | 1.16 | 37.5% | 26.3% | 7.1% | 0.99 | 0.92 | |
| Samardzija | CHC | 159.1 | 4.29 | 3.65 | 1.36 | 46.2% | 23.8% | 9.2% | 0.90 | 1.51 | |
| Stults | SDP | 163.0 | 3.70 | 4.37 | 1.25 | 50.0% | 15.0% | 5.1% | 0.55 | 1.05 | |
| Liriano | PIT | 114.0 | 2.68 | 3.52 | 1.20 | 68.4% | 24.2% | 9.6% | 0.39 | 2.09 | |
| Lincecum | SFG | 148.0 | 4.38 | 3.55 | 1.28 | 36.0% | 24.5% | 8.8% | 0.97 | 1.44 | |
| Vargas | LAA | 101.0 | 3.92 | 4.59 | 1.42 | 43.8% | 15.6% | 7.8% | 1.07 | 1.05 | |
| Ramirez | SEA | 36.1 | 5.94 | 3.98 | 1.35 | 16.7% | 19.1% | 6.4% | 1.73 | 1.00 | |
STARTING PITCHER BREAKDOWN
Here is a look at the day’s slate of arms and how they might stack in their given matchups.
TOP TWELVE:
Jose Fernandez, MIA (v. COL) – Fernandez is having a brilliant debut season and he’s been particularly excellent at home with a 1.40 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 10.1 K/9, and a 3.7 K/BB ratio in 77 IP. The Rockies usually don’t fare well on the road and a trip into the pitching-friendly confines of Miami with their ace on the hill is unlikely to change that trend.
Francisco Liriano, PIT (at SF) – After getting drilled in Colorado, Liriano bounced back brilliantly with a complete game against St. Louis followed by seven shutout innings of San Diego with a season-high 13 strikeouts. And the Padres actually hit lefties a bit this year. The Giants have a meager .290 wOBA against lefties the last two weeks, dropping to .239 in San Francisco.
Max Scherzer, DET (at NYM) – Scherzer would’ve taken one of the top two spots if he wasn’t squaring off against Harvey. I still prefer Scherzer with the Tigers offense supporting him, but his win probability is definitely dinged in this matchup.
Bronson Arroyo, CIN (v. MIL) – Arroyo has bounced back from every dud with a run of gems. After getting trounced by St. Louis (3.7 IP/7 ER), he’s run off three straight wins with a 1.80 ERA and 0.65 WHIP in 20 IP including 20 strikeouts and zero walks. He has a 1.26 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, and 5.0 K/BB ratio against the Brewers in two starts this year. His price is great, too.
David Price, TB (v. NYY) – When you have two entities streaking at the high end, where do you lean? Price has been almost untouchable since returning from the DL, but the Yankees have actually been hitting a bit lately with the league’s top wOBA against lefties in the last two weeks. I’m still favoring Price. Even when he was pitching horribly back in April he had an 8 IP/3 ER outing against the Yankees.
Matt Harvey, NYM (v. DET) – This is the game of the day for sure, but you are likely better off investing your money elsewhere. No one would be surprised if Harvey matched Scherzer pitch-for-pitch and shut down the Tigers, but there is downside and the investment cost is just too high.
Eric Stults, SD (v. CHC) – Stults is a star at home: 2.50 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, and 4.4 K/BB ratio in 82.7 IP and he gets a Cubs team that is flailing against lefties lately with MLB’s second-worst wOBA at .227. He costs next-to-nothing which only makes him more appealing.
Zach McAllister, CLE (v. MIN) – After a rough outing against Detroit, McAllister has allowed just 2 ER in 12.3 IP including a 6 IP/1 ER outing against Minnesota two starts ago. He has 22 Ks in 20 August innings, too. He’s not elite, but he’s a nice bargain arm worth looking at, especially as a secondary guy.
Jeff Samardzija, CHC (at SD) – Can we finally see him get on a roll? He had a complete game against the Nats last time out allowing just one run, but he’s trouble stringing good work together lately. The Padres have a modest offense and we know how well their home park plays so this is a great chance to get another big outing from the Shark.
Julio Teheran, ATL (at STL) – I don’t love the matchup, but you can’t deny Teheran’s excellence. He’s given up just 7 ER since the All-Star break and four of them game in one outing against Philly. He’s got 38 Ks and just 11 BBs in the 36 IP since the break, too. The Cards are great, but not untouchable.
Jordan Zimmermann, WAS (at KC) – Zimm’s control and command have been sketchy since the All-Star break with 15 BB and 7 HR allowed in six starts. He allowed 18 BB and 10 HR in 19 starts before break. The Royals have the worst wOBA in baseball against righties the last two weeks (.268) so if Zimm can’t get back on track here, it might be time to really panic.
Jason Vargas, LAA (at SEA) – Vargas posted an ERA of 2.90 or better in three of the last four years in Safeco marred only by an uncharacteristic 4.56 ERA in 19 starts there in 2011. The Mariners have hit a lull at the dish and I like their former teammate to take advantage.
BOTTOM SIX:
Shelby Miller, STL (v. ATL) – Miller has built his numbers on the weak as his numbers against the best teams aren’t particularly special: 4.53 ERA and 1.49 WHIP against teams with a .500 record of better in 53.7 IP.
Tim Lincecum, SF (v. PIT) – I realize the Pirates aren’t very good offensively, but do you ever feel comfortable using Lincecum?
Chien-Ming Wang, TOR (at HOU) – Yes, it’s Houston, but Wang has been HORRIBLE the last two years with a 6.87 ERA, 1.94 WHIP, and 1.1 K/BB ratio in 56.3 IP. Yes, he could steamroll the Astros, but I think it’s a 50-50 proposition that they blast him instead.
Liam Hendriks, MIN (at CLE) – He’s a home run machine with 1.7 HR/9 for his career and the same 1.7 HR/9 in his small 16 IP sample this year.
Ethan Martin, PHI (v. ARI) – He’s gone more than 5 IP just once in four starts and while I like his 22 IP in 20.7 IP, I don’t care for much else.
Wade Davis, KC (v. WAS) – Nope.
ADVANCED METRICS: August 24th, 2013
| VS. L/R HANDED BATTERS | OPP vs L/R | OTHER ADVANCED STATS | |||||||||||
| PITCHER | wOBA L | ERA L | wOBA R | ERA R | AVG | OPS | BABIP | FIP | AVG-A | Pit/G | Strk% | ||
| Hendriks | 0.311 | 3.12 | 0.380 | 5.14 | 0.249 | 0.722 | 0.286 | 5.04 | 0.284 | 93.33 | 65.7% | ||
| McAllister | 0.350 | 4.29 | 0.306 | 3.12 | 0.239 | 0.698 | 0.297 | 3.82 | 0.256 | 99.56 | 64.3% | ||
| Delgado | 0.368 | 3.55 | 0.315 | 3.49 | 0.254 | 0.698 | 0.298 | 4.44 | 0.276 | 90.58 | 66.1% | ||
| Martin | 0.429 | 3.86 | 0.358 | 8.59 | 0.256 | 0.715 | 0.333 | 6.11 | 0.290 | 94.67 | 59.5% | ||
| Zimmermann | 0.300 | 2.66 | 0.294 | 3.46 | 0.259 | 0.696 | 0.267 | 3.39 | 0.233 | 95.92 | 68.2% | ||
| Davis | 0.416 | 6.86 | 0.339 | 4.10 | 0.253 | 0.712 | 0.376 | 4.22 | 0.316 | 96.87 | 62.6% | ||
| Manship | 0.371 | 8.44 | 0.376 | 5.79 | 0.233 | 0.618 | 0.286 | 6.34 | 0.293 | 87.50 | 57.7% | ||
| Fernandez | 0.262 | 2.91 | 0.239 | 1.99 | 0.267 | 0.754 | 0.249 | 2.77 | 0.187 | 91.78 | 66.4% | ||
| Peralta | 0.354 | 4.50 | 0.325 | 4.76 | 0.247 | 0.714 | 0.294 | 4.20 | 0.262 | 92.23 | 61.1% | ||
| Arroyo | 0.339 | 4.04 | 0.259 | 2.69 | 0.249 | 0.706 | 0.262 | 3.98 | 0.244 | 91.75 | 66.5% | ||
| Sabathia | 0.300 | 4.07 | 0.360 | 5.11 | 0.281 | 0.767 | 0.305 | 4.32 | 0.268 | 103.65 | 66.3% | ||
| Price | 0.253 | 3.48 | 0.304 | 3.27 | 0.250 | 0.680 | 0.279 | 3.37 | 0.242 | 96.94 | 69.1% | ||
| Wang | 0.496 | 9.90 | 0.329 | 5.40 | 0.234 | 0.669 | 0.376 | 5.29 | 0.360 | 72.00 | 61.9% | ||
| Peacock | 0.432 | 7.66 | 0.297 | 3.47 | 0.254 | 0.749 | 0.254 | 5.96 | 0.239 | 74.67 | 59.3% | ||
| Scherzer | 0.267 | 2.92 | 0.215 | 2.74 | 0.236 | 0.680 | 0.246 | 2.66 | 0.189 | 105.52 | 66.2% | ||
| Harvey | 0.206 | 1.72 | 0.266 | 2.87 | 0.284 | 0.786 | 0.268 | 2.00 | 0.196 | 103.80 | 66.4% | ||
| Teheran | 0.357 | 4.26 | 0.271 | 1.89 | 0.284 | 0.764 | 0.293 | 3.70 | 0.247 | 96.21 | 66.8% | ||
| Miller | 0.339 | 3.75 | 0.256 | 2.37 | 0.255 | 0.745 | 0.294 | 3.26 | 0.231 | 94.61 | 66.8% | ||
| Samardzija | 0.349 | 4.84 | 0.317 | 3.98 | 0.242 | 0.672 | 0.316 | 3.60 | 0.250 | 105.16 | 62.7% | ||
| Stults | 0.243 | 3.38 | 0.334 | 3.77 | 0.230 | 0.685 | 0.298 | 3.27 | 0.262 | 98.00 | 65.1% | ||
| Liriano | 0.195 | 2.45 | 0.302 | 2.79 | 0.254 | 0.670 | 0.285 | 2.81 | 0.217 | 95.83 | 62.4% | ||
| Lincecum | 0.308 | 4.19 | 0.311 | 4.56 | 0.243 | 0.700 | 0.297 | 3.55 | 0.237 | 102.00 | 61.9% | ||
| Vargas | 0.343 | 1.91 | 0.341 | 4.79 | 0.228 | 0.658 | 0.301 | 4.28 | 0.271 | 99.56 | 63.5% | ||
| Ramirez | 0.343 | 6.55 | 0.335 | 5.02 | 0.273 | 0.759 | 0.294 | 4.80 | 0.267 | 89.00 | 62.9% | ||
- Opp Avg vs. L/R – Opponent Batting Average vs. Left/Right Handed Pitching
- Opp OPS vs. L/R – Opponent On Base + Slugging Percentage vs. Left/Right Handed Pitching
- wOBA-L and wOBA-R – Pitcher Weighted On Base Percentage Against vs. Left/Right Handed Batters
- ERA-L and ERA-R – Pitcher Earned Run Average against Left/Right Handed Batters
- BABIP – Pitcher Batting Average Against on Balls In Play
- FIP – Fielding Independent Pitching
- Pit/G – Average Pitches Thrown Per Game
- Strk% – Percentage of Pitches for Strikes
Starting Pitcher Salaries: August 24th, 2013
Click the image below to view pitcher salaries by each daily fantasy site along with their percent of top statistics.
- Percent of Top (Top) – Player salary divided by the most expensive pitcher each day. So if Felix Hernandez is $9,000 on FanDuel and Justin Verlander is $4,500, Verlanders Top stat would be 50.
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