Daily Pitcher Breakdown: August 27th, 2013
Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown. I will focus on the top selections of the day and give you a breakdown on why they are set up for success against their given opponent. Sometimes there will be a best of the rest section featuring guys who are likely low-dollar options with some upside for those of you who prefer to load your lineup with hitting studs.
There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in White are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ
Performance and Talent Statistics: August 27th, 2013
| PLAYER | PERFORMANCE | TALENT | |||||||||
| PITCHER | TM | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lohse | MIL | 159.1 | 3.22 | 4.19 | 1.15 | 42.3% | 16.3% | 5.0% | 1.24 | 1.04 | |
| Locke | PIT | 143.2 | 3.01 | 4.58 | 1.35 | 44.0% | 17.4% | 11.8% | 0.50 | 2.00 | |
| Eovaldi | MIA | 70.2 | 3.82 | 4.59 | 1.29 | 66.7% | 16.4% | 9.7% | 0.64 | 1.40 | |
| Ohlendorf | WAS | 38.1 | 2.58 | 3.84 | 1.12 | 66.7% | 19.8% | 7.0% | 0.94 | 0.88 | |
| Milone | OAK | 138.0 | 4.30 | 4.23 | 1.30 | 39.1% | 17.8% | 5.8% | 1.50 | 0.75 | |
| Verlander | DET | 173.2 | 3.68 | 3.83 | 1.36 | 44.4% | 22.3% | 8.3% | 0.83 | 1.07 | |
| Pettitte | NYY | 137.1 | 4.26 | 4.20 | 1.43 | 39.1% | 15.8% | 6.2% | 0.92 | 1.46 | |
| Happ | TOR | 54.2 | 5.10 | 5.04 | 1.46 | 18.2% | 17.6% | 12.2% | 0.82 | 0.74 | |
| Chen | BAL | 101.2 | 3.19 | 4.52 | 1.15 | 37.5% | 15.6% | 6.4% | 0.89 | 0.84 | |
| Doubront | BOS | 140.0 | 3.79 | 4.12 | 1.40 | 43.5% | 20.2% | 9.6% | 0.71 | 1.41 | |
| Wilson | LAA | 166.1 | 3.30 | 3.94 | 1.35 | 50.0% | 21.0% | 8.8% | 0.60 | 1.39 | |
| Hernandez | TBR | 137.2 | 4.97 | 3.64 | 1.32 | 21.7% | 16.9% | 5.1% | 1.44 | 2.21 | |
| Salazar | CLE | 23.0 | 3.52 | 2.70 | 0.96 | 25.0% | 32.2% | 7.8% | 1.96 | 1.05 | |
| Wood | ATL | 57.2 | 2.50 | 2.92 | 1.06 | 57.1% | 26.6% | 7.0% | 0.31 | 1.67 | |
| Kendrick | PHI | 159.2 | 4.51 | 4.29 | 1.37 | 50.0% | 13.2% | 5.3% | 0.90 | 1.69 | |
| Niese | NYM | 96.0 | 4.03 | 4.24 | 1.53 | 52.9% | 16.7% | 8.8% | 0.66 | 1.95 | |
| Clemens | HOU | 46.2 | 6.36 | 4.04 | 1.46 | First Start | 17.8% | 7.7% | 2.51 | 0.81 | |
| Quintana | CWS | 157.0 | 3.67 | 3.93 | 1.22 | 34.6% | 19.8% | 6.9% | 0.97 | 1.13 | |
| Shields | KCR | 181.2 | 3.22 | 4.04 | 1.27 | 59.3% | 19.2% | 7.4% | 0.89 | 1.23 | |
| Correia | MIN | 147.1 | 4.52 | 4.54 | 1.45 | 40.0% | 12.8% | 5.5% | 1.28 | 1.38 | |
| Latos | CIN | 169.0 | 2.93 | 3.46 | 1.21 | 61.5% | 23.4% | 6.9% | 0.59 | 1.35 | |
| Kelly | STL | 83.2 | 3.01 | 4.23 | 1.37 | 44.4% | 16.3% | 8.7% | 0.86 | 1.70 | |
| Petit | SFG | 5.1 | 3.38 | 1.69 | 1.13 | First Start | 33.3% | 0.0% | 1.69 | 0.63 | |
| Bettis | COL | 24.0 | 4.50 | 5.40 | 1.67 | 20.0% | 11.5% | 11.5% | 1.13 | 1.50 | |
| Kennedy | SDP | 149.1 | 4.88 | 4.22 | 1.39 | 36.0% | 20.2% | 9.3% | 1.33 | 1.01 | |
| Holmberg | ARI | First Start | |||||||||
| Wood | CHC | 165.0 | 3.22 | 4.51 | 1.11 | 61.5% | 17.3% | 8.1% | 0.82 | 0.78 | |
| Kershaw | LAD | 198.1 | 1.72 | 3.12 | 0.86 | 74.1% | 25.0% | 5.7% | 0.41 | 1.44 | |
| Holland | TEX | 174.0 | 2.95 | 3.66 | 1.23 | 57.7% | 22.5% | 7.2% | 0.67 | 1.12 | |
| Iwakuma | SEA | 178.0 | 2.98 | 3.46 | 1.01 | 55.6% | 21.3% | 4.7% | 1.21 | 1.28 | |
STARTING PITCHER BREAKDOWN
Here is a look at the day’s slate of arms and how they might stack in their given matchups.
BEST BUYS:
These aren’t just low-cost guys with good matchups and/or venues, but you will also find expensive studs in here with great matchups. An ace facing another ace won’t find his way in here because the win probability for both is sliced significantly by facing each other.
Clayton Kershaw, LAD (v. CHC) – He’s the top guy most days he pitches regardless of who he is facing. It becomes quite the no-brainer when he’s facing the Cubs.
James Shields, KC (at MIN) – Shields gets the Twins for the third time this month, but it’s the rubber match for him as he was sharp (6 IP/2 ER) the first time and drilled the second (6 IP/7 ER). He has three straight strong 7 IP outings since the shellacking including two against teams light years better than Minnesota: Detroit and Boston. The other was against the not-so-good White Sox.
Jon Niese, NYM (at PHI) – Relax, Mets fans, you still have Niese. And he’s been great since returning from the DL posting a 2.84 ERA in three August starts with 23 Ks in 19 IP of work. Meanwhile, the Phillies have been baseball’s worst team against lefties from a wOBA standpoint since the break with a .250 mark and it’s actually worse in the last two weeks at .249.
Mat Latos, CIN (at STL) – The Cards are particularly tough on righties, but don’t tell that to Latos. He has a 1.42 ERA and 1.11 WHIP against them in three starts totaling 19 IP. Latos is quietly having an excellent season and he’s been damn-near unstoppable since the All-Star break: 1.47 ERA in 49 IP.
Kyle Lohse, MIL (at PIT) – I’ve been riding Lohse’s hot streak for quite some time now and I’m not stopping now against the modest Pirates offense. He’s got a 2.05 ERA in 44 IP since the break and a 3.15 in his last three August starts. The Pirates have a .293 wOBA v. righties since the break and .294 in the last two weeks of action.
Nathan Eovaldi, MIA (at WAS) – Eovaldi bounced back from his pounding at the hands of the Giants (3.7 IP/9 ER… somehow) with a 7 IP/2 ER against the red-hot Dodgers. In fact, he has just two ugly starts all year which have accounted for 15 of his 30 ER (4 IP/6 ER v. MIL, too). Even with those starts he has a 3.82 ERA, but without them he has a 2.12 ERA in 10 starts. The Nats are a bit better against righties, but not a particularly frightening matchup given their inconsistency this year. I like Eovaldi as a budget option.
Jose Quintana, CWS (v. HOU) – Q is having a nice follow-up season to his strong rookie campaign, though oddly enough one of his worst starts of the year was against Houston earlier and it wasn’t even that bad (4.7 IP/2 ER), but he ran up a huge pitch count quickly at 104 so he came out before finishing even five innings. He’s given up more than three earned just once in his last 10 starts (5 IP/5 ER v. MIN) and well, we know how the Astros hit… or don’t as it were.
GOOD BUYS:
This is where a lot of the high-priced big arms with decent or worse matchups will reside. Any top arm can thwart even the toughest lineup, but it’s not always the most sensible buy when they are among the most costly arms on the board. This is also where the ace v. ace matchups will be as they still have the potential for a big score, but just lack the high probability of the ever-important win.
Hisashi Iwakuma, SEA (v. TEX) / Derek Holland, TEX (at SEA) – Two really good guys facing two really hot offenses, BUT both offenses are facing the handedness that they are weakest against right now. Each is about average against the handedness they are facing while mashing the other side so despite the hotness of each offense, we could still see a pitcher’s duel here.
Joe Kelly, STL (v. CIN) – Kelly officially joined the rotation on July 6th and he’s posted a sparkling 2.33 ERA in his eight starts allowing more than one earned just three times and more than two earned just twice. In short, he’s been great. He’s not much for strikeouts and he walks too many guys, but he’s good at inducing poor contact – think Jeff Locke from the right side when Locke is running well. With the support of the Cards, he’s 5-0 in those eight starts, too. The Reds are a mediocre offense, though pulling down that sixth win will mean his offense has to get to one of the best pitchers in baseball: Mat Latos.
Danny Salazar, CLE (at ATL) – The Indians have been very protective of their young arm by giving him longer spells between starts as he gets a seven-day rest for the second straight start. What he might lack in innings pitched, he makes up in strikeout potential and the Braves have been ice cold lately with a .274 wOBA against righties the last two weeks (28th in MLB). They also strike out a ton with the second-highest rate against righties on the season at 22.6%.
Ross Ohlendorf, WAS (v. MIA) – The Cubs were the first team to really get to Ohlendorf this year hitting him up for 4 ER in 4.3 IP, but beyond that he’s actually been quite brilliant. Facing Miami definitely helps here as I’m still not 100% confident in him, but you can’t deny the strong work, even in a small sample.
Travis Wood, CHC (at LAD) – Wood has been making his descent back to earth a bit lately with a rough August that includes a 3.3 IP/5 ER outing against these very same Dodgers back on the 2nd of the month. He’s given up four or more in three of his five starts so why I still think he can be a reasonable secondary option? Because the Dodgers don’t really hit lefties that well overall, at least not lately. They have a sub-.300 wOBA since the break and just a .250 in the last two weeks which ranks 28th in MLB.
Felix Doubront, BOS (v. BAL) – Doubront is actually a bit better at home with near equal ERAs (3.77 to 3.82) but big WHIP and K/BB differences: 1.28/1.53 on the WHIP and 2.4/1.8 on the K/BB ratio. The O’s don’t handle lefties all that well especially compared to their destruction of righties so this isn’t a bad spot for Doubront who has had a hit-or-miss August thus far.
USE CAUTION:
Alex Wood, ATL (v. CLE) – Perhaps Wood is catching the Indians at the right time as they have just a .293 wOBA against lefties the last two weeks, yet they still rank fourth for the month (.344) and season (.327) making this a big test for the rookie southpaw. He’s been nearly untouchable this month, though it helps to face the Philies, Marlins, Nats, and Mets when wanting to look like a good pitcher. This isn’t a slam-dunk for him today.
Justin Verlander, DET (v. OAK) – Here’s the problem with JV, he’s still a little too expensive for his inconsistency. He’s a bit worse against better teams which doesn’t bode well here against the 73-57 A’s so I’d just pass altogether.
Wei-Yin Chen, BAL (at BOS) – I’m actually a big fan of Chen, especially as a low-dollar option and the Red Sox don’t smash lefties the way they do righties, but they have been surging against them of late (.365 wOBA in the last two weeks) and I don’t like non-strikeout guys in Fenway.
Jeff Locke, PIT (v. MIL) – The real Jeff Locke has been unmasked and he’s more mediocre #4-#5 starter than near-ace that we saw for a few months based on his ERA.
J.A. Happ, TOR (v. NYY) / Andy Pettitte, NYY (at TOR) – I think the low-scoring Dickey-Hughes battle is just luring us in to get smashed by one of these guys. There is just no upside in this matchup, either.
Kevin Correia, MIN (v. KC) – Even at his best, he’s far from special. He doesn’t miss bats, his offense is modest in support, and he’s facing KC’s ace.
NOT AT ALL CONFIDENT, HERE’S WHY:
C.J. Wilson, LAA (at TB) – The Rays have destroyed lefties this season and I see no discount built in to assume that extra risk making Wilson a total pass considering the plethora of options elsewhere.
Roberto Hernandez, TB (v. LAA) – Everyone who points out the 3.3 K/BB ratio as a reason why he should be pitching better conveniently forgets to mention the 1.4 HR/9 as the reason he won’t.
Ian Kennedy, SD (at ARI) – We saw how Kennedy in Chase Field worked out earlier this year. A different uniform is unlikely to make it much better.
Kyle Kendrick, PHI (v. NYM) – He’s pitching horribly of late (5.91 ERA in Aug, 7.46 since break) and his upside is limited even when he’s going well.
David Holmberg, ARI (v. SD) – It’s his MLB debut and the Padres actually hit lefties a decent bit.
YOU CAN SAFELY IGNORE:
Couldn’t pay me to use these guys.
- Tommy Milone, OAK (at DET)
- Chad Bettis, COL (v. SF)
- Yusmeiro Petit, SF (at COL)
- Paul Clemens, HOU (at CWS)
ADVANCED METRICS: August 27th, 2013
| VS. L/R HANDED BATTERS | OPP vs L/R | OTHER ADVANCED STATS | |||||||||||
| PITCHER | wOBA L | ERA L | wOBA R | ERA R | AVG | OPS | BABIP | FIP | AVG-A | Pit/G | Strk% | ||
| Lohse | 0.310 | 3.48 | 0.302 | 3.00 | 0.241 | 0.696 | 0.269 | 4.17 | 0.249 | 94.19 | 65.9% | ||
| Locke | 0.355 | 3.64 | 0.294 | 2.91 | 0.261 | 0.718 | 0.273 | 3.87 | 0.229 | 93.24 | 58.7% | ||
| Eovaldi | 0.306 | 3.90 | 0.309 | 3.79 | 0.253 | 0.711 | 0.265 | 3.80 | 0.230 | 92.83 | 64.5% | ||
| Ohlendorf | 0.297 | 3.14 | 0.276 | 2.25 | 0.232 | 0.619 | 0.252 | 3.63 | 0.219 | 57.27 | 65.1% | ||
| Milone | 0.334 | 6.04 | 0.342 | 3.90 | 0.273 | 0.782 | 0.286 | 4.46 | 0.261 | 99.83 | 64.5% | ||
| Verlander | 0.307 | 3.09 | 0.337 | 4.52 | 0.244 | 0.710 | 0.318 | 3.46 | 0.256 | 108.74 | 65.6% | ||
| Pettitte | 0.257 | 2.84 | 0.366 | 4.85 | 0.244 | 0.685 | 0.322 | 3.87 | 0.284 | 94.70 | 65.1% | ||
| Happ | 0.316 | 4.24 | 0.327 | 5.26 | 0.249 | 0.681 | 0.271 | 4.35 | 0.234 | 95.45 | 61.5% | ||
| Chen | 0.259 | 2.57 | 0.314 | 3.45 | 0.254 | 0.726 | 0.266 | 3.87 | 0.241 | 96.38 | 65.9% | ||
| Doubront | 0.310 | 2.70 | 0.333 | 4.13 | 0.251 | 0.708 | 0.311 | 3.64 | 0.255 | 100.17 | 61.3% | ||
| Wilson | 0.253 | 2.37 | 0.326 | 3.59 | 0.280 | 0.764 | 0.309 | 3.30 | 0.249 | 111.04 | 62.7% | ||
| Hernandez | 0.389 | 6.40 | 0.291 | 3.52 | 0.270 | 0.753 | 0.307 | 4.57 | 0.279 | 90.46 | 65.1% | ||
| Salazar | 0.234 | 2.77 | 0.323 | 4.50 | 0.253 | 0.737 | 0.204 | 4.25 | 0.181 | 84.50 | 68.3% | ||
| Wood | 0.238 | 2.12 | 0.275 | 2.72 | 0.263 | 0.751 | 0.289 | 2.25 | 0.212 | 42.14 | 64.0% | ||
| Kendrick | 0.308 | 4.01 | 0.357 | 5.03 | 0.237 | 0.679 | 0.304 | 3.97 | 0.278 | 95.96 | 65.1% | ||
| Niese | 4.85 | 3.75 | 0.230 | 0.670 | 0.330 | 3.79 | 4.030 | 96.00 | 62.6% | ||||
| Clemens | 0.395 | 8.84 | 0.361 | 4.61 | 0.253 | 0.691 | 0.277 | 6.16 | 0.272 | 25.50 | 63.4% | ||
| Quintana | 0.336 | 3.30 | 0.298 | 3.86 | 0.246 | 0.697 | 0.282 | 3.72 | 0.242 | 102.85 | 62.5% | ||
| Shields | 0.284 | 3.09 | 0.336 | 3.44 | 0.238 | 0.695 | 0.294 | 3.77 | 0.251 | 108.22 | 62.0% | ||
| Correia | 0.378 | 5.54 | 0.338 | 3.76 | 0.257 | 0.687 | 0.319 | 4.54 | 0.299 | 93.00 | 62.9% | ||
| Latos | 0.329 | 3.09 | 0.278 | 2.85 | 0.284 | 0.766 | 0.304 | 2.89 | 0.239 | 100.69 | 66.1% | ||
| Kelly | 0.297 | 3.43 | 0.340 | 2.64 | 0.251 | 0.723 | 0.296 | 4.11 | 0.260 | 44.20 | 61.4% | ||
| Petit | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0.566 | 7.71 | 0.266 | 0.749 | 0.385 | 2.85 | 0.286 | 81.00 | 66.7% | ||
| Bettis | 0.373 | 5.11 | 0.371 | 3.86 | 0.261 | 0.701 | 0.286 | 5.20 | 0.270 | 85.60 | 62.1% | ||
| Kennedy | 0.354 | 5.25 | 0.329 | 4.58 | 0.257 | 0.716 | 0.290 | 4.61 | 0.251 | 101.36 | 63.3% | ||
| Spruill | |||||||||||||
| Wood | 0.257 | 2.79 | 0.288 | 3.38 | 0.256 | 0.710 | 0.238 | 3.88 | 0.211 | 98.04 | 64.3% | ||
| Kershaw | 0.203 | 1.34 | 0.241 | 1.85 | 0.230 | 0.689 | 0.231 | 2.39 | 0.180 | 105.52 | 66.2% | ||
| Holland | 0.292 | 3.27 | 0.308 | 2.89 | 0.231 | 0.661 | 0.303 | 3.06 | 0.243 | 103.31 | 65.5% | ||
| Iwakuma | 0.271 | 2.54 | 0.309 | 3.56 | 0.260 | 0.737 | 0.248 | 3.69 | 0.220 | 92.67 | 67.6% | ||
- Opp Avg vs. L/R – Opponent Batting Average vs. Left/Right Handed Pitching
- Opp OPS vs. L/R – Opponent On Base + Slugging Percentage vs. Left/Right Handed Pitching
- wOBA-L and wOBA-R – Pitcher Weighted On Base Percentage Against vs. Left/Right Handed Batters
- ERA-L and ERA-R – Pitcher Earned Run Average against Left/Right Handed Batters
- BABIP – Pitcher Batting Average Against on Balls In Play
- FIP – Fielding Independent Pitching
- Pit/G – Average Pitches Thrown Per Game
- Strk% – Percentage of Pitches for Strikes
Starting Pitcher Salaries: August 27th, 2013
Click the image below to view pitcher salaries by each daily fantasy site along with their percent of top statistics.
- Percent of Top (Top) – Player salary divided by the most expensive pitcher each day. So if Felix Hernandez is $9,000 on FanDuel and Justin Verlander is $4,500, Verlanders Top stat would be 50.
NOTE: Button for pitcher salary chart above opens in popup window