Daily Pitcher Breakdown: August 30th, 2013
Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown. I will focus on the top selections of the day and give you a breakdown on why they are set up for success against their given opponent. Sometimes there will be a best of the rest section featuring guys who are likely low-dollar options with some upside for those of you who prefer to load your lineup with hitting studs.
There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in White are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ
Performance and Talent Statistics: August 30th, 2013
| PLAYER | PERFORMANCE | TALENT | |||||||||
| PITCHER | TM | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miller | STL | 139.2 | 2.90 | 3.25 | 1.15 | 40.0% | 26.4% | 7.2% | 1.03 | 0.93 | |
| Liriano | PIT | 125.0 | 2.74 | 3.39 | 1.23 | 65.0% | 24.9% | 9.5% | 0.36 | 2.26 | |
| Gonzalez | BAL | 136.0 | 3.77 | 4.35 | 1.28 | 40.9% | 17.4% | 7.6% | 1.19 | 0.98 | |
| Sabathia | NYY | 177.2 | 4.81 | 3.81 | 1.35 | 29.6% | 19.9% | 6.7% | 1.37 | 1.39 | |
| McAllister | CLE | 105.0 | 3.51 | 4.42 | 1.30 | 55.6% | 17.7% | 8.1% | 0.77 | 0.88 | |
| Porcello | DET | 142.1 | 4.49 | 3.46 | 1.31 | 29.2% | 18.2% | 5.6% | 0.89 | 2.39 | |
| Santana | KCR | 173.2 | 3.21 | 3.73 | 1.15 | 57.7% | 19.4% | 5.7% | 1.14 | 1.44 | |
| Buehrle | TOR | 172.0 | 4.08 | 4.23 | 1.32 | 48.1% | 16.1% | 6.0% | 1.05 | 1.27 | |
| Santiago | CWS | 130.0 | 3.25 | 4.12 | 1.33 | 52.6% | 22.5% | 10.7% | 1.04 | 0.81 | |
| Dempster | BOS | 145.1 | 4.77 | 4.25 | 1.47 | 36.0% | 20.5% | 10.0% | 1.42 | 1.02 | |
| Fernandez | MIA | 152.2 | 2.30 | 3.22 | 1.00 | 60.0% | 27.2% | 8.4% | 0.47 | 1.43 | |
| Teheran | ATL | 155.0 | 3.08 | 3.67 | 1.20 | 52.0% | 21.5% | 6.0% | 1.10 | 0.97 | |
| Gee | NYM | 158.2 | 3.69 | 4.16 | 1.32 | 50.0% | 17.1% | 6.0% | 1.13 | 1.14 | |
| Zimmermann | WAS | 170.2 | 3.32 | 3.70 | 1.11 | 61.5% | 18.4% | 4.9% | 0.90 | 1.58 | |
| Hendriks | MIN | 20.1 | 6.20 | 5.12 | 1.43 | 25.0% | 8.8% | 3.3% | 2.21 | 0.87 | |
| Darvish | TEX | 168.0 | 2.68 | 2.67 | 1.04 | 52.0% | 33.4% | 8.6% | 1.07 | 1.12 | |
| Weaver | LAA | 122.1 | 3.46 | 3.98 | 1.14 | 57.9% | 19.8% | 5.8% | 1.03 | 0.72 | |
| Peralta | MIL | 153.2 | 4.51 | 4.40 | 1.44 | 37.0% | 14.8% | 8.7% | 0.88 | 2.05 | |
| Walker | SEA | MLB Debut | |||||||||
| Peacock | HOU | 54.0 | 5.67 | 4.53 | 1.44 | 22.2% | 20.0% | 11.3% | 2.17 | 0.75 | |
| Arroyo | CIN | 168.2 | 3.42 | 4.05 | 1.10 | 53.8% | 15.7% | 3.8% | 1.12 | 1.24 | |
| Manship | COL | 21.0 | 6.86 | 4.78 | 1.43 | 0.0% | 13.0% | 8.7% | 1.71 | 1.65 | |
| Lincecum | SFG | 158.1 | 4.55 | 3.63 | 1.32 | 34.6% | 24.5% | 9.4% | 0.97 | 1.41 | |
| Delgado | ARI | 83.2 | 3.87 | 3.94 | 1.24 | 30.8% | 17.8% | 5.0% | 1.61 | 1.17 | |
| Price | TBR | 137.1 | 3.28 | 3.46 | 1.09 | 55.0% | 20.3% | 3.7% | 0.92 | 1.28 | |
| Parker | OAK | 163.1 | 3.58 | 4.44 | 1.19 | 53.8% | 17.1% | 8.0% | 1.05 | 1.02 | |
| Stults | SDP | 169.1 | 3.72 | 4.39 | 1.25 | 48.1% | 15.0% | 5.2% | 0.58 | 1.03 | |
| Ryu | LAD | 160.2 | 3.08 | 3.69 | 1.21 | 56.0% | 20.2% | 6.9% | 0.73 | 1.64 | |
STARTING PITCHER BREAKDOWN
Here is a look at the day’s slate of arms and how they might stack in their given matchups.
BEST BUYS:
These aren’t just low-cost guys with good matchups and/or venues, but you will also find expensive studs in here with great matchups. An ace facing another ace won’t find his way in here because the win probability for both is sliced significantly by facing each other.
Yu Darvish, TEX (v. MIN) – Today is actually a really tough slate because there are a lot of nice pitching matchups which really puts stress on pulling a win. Starting pitchers wins are always important in daily, perhaps overly so at some outlets, but today they will be particularly pivotal since we could see a lot players get a solid outing from their starter only to take a no-decision or loss. Darvish will cost you a ton, but he is best set up to avoid that fate and put up gaudy numbers en route to a win. The Twins finished second to only the Astros for the highest strikeout rate against righties in August.
Hyun-Jin Ryu, LAD (v. SD) – Ryu has somehow not faced his divisional foe all year until today and while they have been slightly above average against lefties this year by wOBA, they are ice-cold of late with .288 mark in the last two weeks. Meanwhile, Ryu has seen his strikeout surge since the All-Star break posting a 23% rate in seven starts after just a 14% mark from May to mid-July.
Jered Weaver, LAA (at MIL) – Turns out the sky wasn’t falling after that Yankee Stadium implosion (5 IP/9 ER). He was a little wobbly against Cleveland the next time out (6 IP/4 ER) before rolling Seattle (8 IP/1 ER). The Brewers have some real bats, but their output has simply been bland with a below average wOBA against righties this month.
Taijuan Walker, SEA (at HOU) – This is what we call a soft landing. The prized, flame-throwing rookie gets MLB’s easiest team to strike out. If there is one thing he should do upon arrival, it is miss bats. I think he best deployed as a secondary option with a more stable top dog, but if you’re feeling risky and want to stack your lineup with studs, then he is a great bargain option at the outlets where he is available.
Rick Porcello, DET (v. CLE) – Porcello has been great against the Indians this year with a 1.42 ERA and 0.95 WHIP in 19 IP over three starts. The Indians have been trash against righties this month with .280 wOBA that tops only Miami’s .278 mark. What I really like about Porcello’s work against Cleveland are the 19 strikeouts. His season totals aren’t special which keeps his price down making him a strong buy today! Plus slick fielding shortstop Jose Iglesias is back after missing Porcello’s last start.
GOOD BUYS:
This is where a lot of the high-priced big arms with decent or worse matchups will reside. Any top arm can thwart even the toughest lineup, but it’s not always the most sensible buy when they are among the most costly arms on the board. This is also where the ace v. ace matchups will be as they still have the potential for a big score, but just lack the high probability of the ever-important win.
They aren’t all ace v. ace, but there are several good matchups here that make it really tough to back either guy in hopes of netting a win. If your preferred outlet heavily weights pitcher wins, you might just avoid all four of these matchups entirely.
Jose Fernandez, MIA (at ATL) / Julio Teheran, ATL (v. MIA) – How annoying is it that Fernandez is a Marlin? How great would it be to use him every fifth day if he was on just about any other team in baseball??? The Marlins are dreadful on the road at 20-44 while the Braves are 47-18 at home. To wit, Fernandez has just one road win in the last three months. Even with a pair of 6 IP/4 ER outings, Teheran still has a 3.10 ERA in August. He also has 34 Ks in 29 IP. He’s now approaching 25 innings more than his 2012 workload so I’m a bit worried about September fatigue, but not today against the Marlins. Just be careful the rest of the way.
David Price, TB (at OAK) / Jarrod Parker, OAK (v. TB) – Price has zero complete games this month after three in July so he’s obviously been totally lame! Orrrr he’s posted a 2.38 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in 34 IP. He’s only 2-0 after getting saddled with three no-decisions including one in a nine-inning outing that the Rays won in the 10th. The A’s are raking lefties lately with a .478 wOBA against them the last two weeks which is an MLB-best by nearly 100 points (.380).
Of course it’s a tiny sample of nine games, too. They are still leading MLB for the month at .375, though. Parker did notch a complete game in August en route to a brilliant that he hopes to cap off nicely today. He has a 1.93 ERA in five starts thus far with a 1.07 WHIP and 4-0 record. Since May 1st, he’s got a 2.75 ERA in 134 IP.
Shelby Miller, STL (at PIT) / Francisco Liriano, PIT (v. STL) – Miller is actually 0-3 with 4.08 ERA and 1.53 WHIP in 17.7 IP against the Pirates this year while Liriano is 2-0 with a 1.13 ERA and 0.69 WHIP in two starts spanning 16 IP. On work-to-date, Liriano has a clear advantage, but both offenses are facing their weakness. Well, the Pirates aren’t particularly strong against either side, but the Cards dominate righties and struggle against lefties. If you want Liriano you have to pony up the extra bucks so maybe the savvy play is on Miller to buck his trend against Pittsburgh.
Dillon Gee, NYM (at WAS) / Jordan Zimmermann, WAS (v. NYM) – The Nats are playing a lot more like the team we expected them to be this year, but Gee has been brilliant the last three months with a 2.48 ERA in 109 IP of work. He did allow 4 ER against the Tigers his last time out, but then just 4 ER in his other four starts this month. Zimmermann’s command was horrible in a dud against the Cubs (5 IP/8 ER/3 HR), but he bounced back with a 7.7 IP/2 ER outing in KC five days later. We’ve seen some chinks in the armor from Zimm since the break with three 5+ ER outings, but he’s allowed two or fewer in the other four so he’s either been very good or terrible. I’ll bet on the former tonight against the Mets.
Hector Santiago, CWS (at BOS) – He doesn’t get any love, but he’s been awesome this year. Since rejoining the rotation on June 9th, he’s allowed more than 3 ER just twice in 14 outings. He fanned nine Red Sox in 6 IP/2 ER outing back on May 22nd, too.
USE CAUTION:
Ervin Santana, KC (at TOR) – Santana is having an excellent season and I love what he’s accomplished, but I can’t pin my hopes to one of the more homer-prone pitchers in recent memory heading into the launching pad that is the Rogers Centre.
Bronson Arroyo, CIN (at COL) – Arroyo is having a very nice season, but I have been skeptical of what he’s accomplished every step of the way and I can’t pin my hopes to one of the more homer-prone pitchers in recent memory heading into the launching pad that is Coors Field.
Zach McAllister, CLE (at DET) – McAllister has a 1.83 ERA and 0.91 WHIP in his last three outings, but the one before that was a 2.3 IP/5 ER bomb to the Tigers so be careful here. By the way, that reminds me of something I’ve wanted to clarify. The Caution section doesn’t mean DON’T USE, it simply means you should think twice or thrice before diving in as there are some red flags to pay attention to with the particular matchup. I think some in the comments have interpreted Caution as a total pass.
I’m fully out on the rest of the slate today, but if you have any questions on specifically why for any of them, let me know:
- CC Sabathia, NYY (v. BAL)
- Miguel Gonzalez, BAL (at NYY)
- Mark Buehrle, TOR (v. KC)
- Wily Peralta, MIL (v. LAA)
- Ryan Dempster, BOS (v. CWS)
- Tim Lincecum SF (at ARI)
- Randall Delgado, ARI (v. SF)
- Eric Stults, SD (at LAD)
- Brad Peacock, HOU (v. SEA)
- Liam Hendriks, MIN (at TEX)
- Jeff Manship, COL (v. CIN)
ADVANCED METRICS: August 30th, 2013
| VS. L/R HANDED BATTERS | OPP vs L/R | OTHER ADVANCED STATS | |||||||||||
| PITCHER | wOBA L | ERA L | wOBA R | ERA R | AVG | OPS | BABIP | FIP | AVG-A | Pit/G | Strk% | ||
| Miller | 0.334 | 3.68 | 0.257 | 2.29 | 0.241 | 0.696 | 0.286 | 3.33 | 0.226 | 95.12 | 66.7% | ||
| Liriano | 0.183 | 2.17 | 0.310 | 2.95 | 0.239 | 0.679 | 0.299 | 2.67 | 0.224 | 96.60 | 62.5% | ||
| Gonzalez | 0.324 | 3.48 | 0.319 | 3.99 | 0.244 | 0.687 | 0.278 | 4.32 | 0.250 | 90.29 | 64.6% | ||
| Sabathia | 0.300 | 4.15 | 0.357 | 5.05 | 0.251 | 0.708 | 0.306 | 4.23 | 0.267 | 103.96 | 66.1% | ||
| McAllister | 0.337 | 3.99 | 0.304 | 2.96 | 0.286 | 0.787 | 0.288 | 3.79 | 0.248 | 100.11 | 64.3% | ||
| Porcello | 0.356 | 5.19 | 0.271 | 3.84 | 0.248 | 0.723 | 0.318 | 3.53 | 0.274 | 92.04 | 63.6% | ||
| Santana | 0.301 | 2.72 | 0.307 | 3.89 | 0.255 | 0.748 | 0.274 | 3.88 | 0.241 | 102.04 | 65.2% | ||
| Buehrle | 0.286 | 4.20 | 0.341 | 4.13 | 0.260 | 0.688 | 0.299 | 4.07 | 0.268 | 102.74 | 63.1% | ||
| Santiago | 0.330 | 3.19 | 0.328 | 3.34 | 0.254 | 0.726 | 0.282 | 4.28 | 0.232 | 76.83 | 61.9% | ||
| Dempster | 0.319 | 4.50 | 0.386 | 5.14 | 0.253 | 0.691 | 0.301 | 4.70 | 0.260 | 101.92 | 61.9% | ||
| Fernandez | 0.260 | 2.86 | 0.237 | 1.75 | 0.253 | 0.737 | 0.249 | 2.66 | 0.185 | 92.68 | 66.4% | ||
| Teheran | 0.364 | 4.46 | 0.268 | 1.93 | 0.232 | 0.619 | 0.292 | 3.83 | 0.246 | 96.76 | 66.4% | ||
| Gee | 0.377 | 4.56 | 0.288 | 3.05 | 0.253 | 0.711 | 0.300 | 4.10 | 0.267 | 92.88 | 65.5% | ||
| Zimmermann | 0.309 | 2.90 | 0.295 | 3.83 | 0.237 | 0.679 | 0.271 | 3.50 | 0.237 | 96.04 | 68.0% | ||
| Hendriks | 0.361 | 5.84 | 0.387 | 7.04 | 0.260 | 0.737 | 0.284 | 6.04 | 0.299 | 89.50 | 64.5% | ||
| Darvish | 0.299 | 2.90 | 0.229 | 2.42 | 0.238 | 0.695 | 0.264 | 3.05 | 0.190 | 110.24 | 63.2% | ||
| Weaver | 0.301 | 3.74 | 0.307 | 3.02 | 0.251 | 0.713 | 0.274 | 3.76 | 0.237 | 100.42 | 63.5% | ||
| Peralta | 0.354 | 4.38 | 0.330 | 4.71 | 0.270 | 0.753 | 0.296 | 4.25 | 0.265 | 92.63 | 61.1% | ||
| Walker | 0.237 | 0.678 | |||||||||||
| Peacock | 0.419 | 7.57 | 0.319 | 3.76 | 0.248 | 0.728 | 0.255 | 6.05 | 0.243 | 76.15 | 59.2% | ||
| Arroyo | 0.334 | 4.01 | 0.267 | 2.86 | 0.266 | 0.749 | 0.266 | 3.94 | 0.246 | 91.50 | 67.0% | ||
| Manship | 0.310 | 7.45 | 0.378 | 6.35 | 0.251 | 0.723 | 0.265 | 5.51 | 0.262 | 87.75 | 59.8% | ||
| Lincecum | 0.309 | 4.54 | 0.320 | 4.56 | 0.257 | 0.716 | 0.303 | 3.60 | 0.240 | 102.04 | 61.5% | ||
| Delgado | 0.363 | 4.03 | 0.322 | 3.77 | 0.261 | 0.701 | 0.289 | 4.55 | 0.268 | 92.29 | 65.2% | ||
| Price | 0.245 | 3.12 | 0.311 | 3.39 | 0.245 | 0.735 | 0.291 | 3.25 | 0.249 | 97.25 | 68.8% | ||
| Parker | 0.318 | 3.91 | 0.290 | 3.28 | 0.253 | 0.739 | 0.256 | 4.26 | 0.231 | 94.27 | 62.5% | ||
| Stults | 0.243 | 3.32 | 0.334 | 3.82 | 0.256 | 0.710 | 0.297 | 3.32 | 0.262 | 98.15 | 64.9% | ||
| Ryu | 0.339 | 3.63 | 0.285 | 2.91 | 0.254 | 0.734 | 0.295 | 3.29 | 0.245 | 103.72 | 64.2% | ||
- Opp Avg vs. L/R – Opponent Batting Average vs. Left/Right Handed Pitching
- Opp OPS vs. L/R – Opponent On Base + Slugging Percentage vs. Left/Right Handed Pitching
- wOBA-L and wOBA-R – Pitcher Weighted On Base Percentage Against vs. Left/Right Handed Batters
- ERA-L and ERA-R – Pitcher Earned Run Average against Left/Right Handed Batters
- BABIP – Pitcher Batting Average Against on Balls In Play
- FIP – Fielding Independent Pitching
- Pit/G – Average Pitches Thrown Per Game
- Strk% – Percentage of Pitches for Strikes
Starting Pitcher Salaries: August 30th, 2013
Click the image below to view pitcher salaries by each daily fantasy site along with their percent of top statistics.
- Percent of Top (Top) – Player salary divided by the most expensive pitcher each day. So if Felix Hernandez is $9,000 on FanDuel and Justin Verlander is $4,500, Verlanders Top stat would be 50.
NOTE: Button for pitcher salary chart above opens in popup window