Daily Pitcher Breakdown: August 9th, 2013
Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown. I will focus on the top selections of the day and give you a breakdown on why they are set up for success against their given opponent. Sometimes there will be a best of the rest section featuring guys who are likely low-dollar options with some upside for those of you who prefer to load your lineup with hitting studs.
There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in White are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ
Performance and Talent Statistics: August 9th, 2013
| PLAYER | PERFORMANCE | TALENT | |||||||||
| PITCHER | TM | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lannan | PHI | 68.0 | 4.10 | 4.56 | 1.35 | 33.3% | 11.6% | 6.5% | 0.40 | 1.82 | |
| Haren | WAS | 112.0 | 5.14 | 3.71 | 1.32 | 35.0% | 20.4% | 4.3% | 1.69 | 0.82 | |
| Weaver | LAA | 96.1 | 2.90 | 3.96 | 1.12 | 60.0% | 20.0% | 6.1% | 0.75 | 0.78 | |
| Jimenez | CLE | 116.1 | 4.18 | 4.39 | 1.48 | 31.8% | 21.5% | 12.1% | 1.16 | 1.19 | |
| Porcello | DET | 120.0 | 4.28 | 3.41 | 1.25 | 33.3% | 17.8% | 5.1% | 0.90 | 2.40 | |
| Nova | NYY | 73.0 | 3.08 | 3.22 | 1.25 | 40.0% | 24.1% | 7.5% | 0.49 | 1.96 | |
| Parker | OAK | 132.0 | 4.02 | 4.65 | 1.23 | 50.0% | 16.3% | 8.9% | 1.16 | 1.00 | |
| Rogers | TOR | 93.2 | 4.61 | 4.07 | 1.47 | 41.7% | 15.8% | 6.8% | 1.06 | 1.72 | |
| Cashner | SDP | 118.1 | 3.80 | 4.10 | 1.25 | 38.9% | 16.3% | 7.4% | 0.76 | 1.78 | |
| Arroyo | CIN | 141.2 | 3.62 | 4.35 | 1.17 | 54.5% | 13.9% | 4.5% | 1.14 | 1.21 | |
| Turner | MIA | 77.1 | 2.68 | 4.36 | 1.20 | 58.3% | 17.5% | 8.6% | 0.35 | 1.30 | |
| Beachy | ATL | 10.0 | 9.00 | 3.99 | 1.60 | 0.0% | 19.6% | 6.5% | 2.70 | 0.92 | |
| Garza | TEX | 93.1 | 3.09 | 3.84 | 1.10 | 57.1% | 20.4% | 6.3% | 0.96 | 0.98 | |
| Bedard | HOU | 109.0 | 4.29 | 4.39 | 1.44 | 30.0% | 21.4% | 11.4% | 1.16 | 0.79 | |
| Hendriks | MIN | 9.2 | 4.66 | 4.11 | 1.34 | 0.0% | 11.4% | 2.3% | 0.93 | 1.89 | |
| Leesman | CWS | Debut | |||||||||
| Peavy | BOS | 87.0 | 4.14 | 3.46 | 1.11 | 50.0% | 23.7% | 5.4% | 1.55 | 0.74 | |
| Santana | KCR | 151.1 | 2.97 | 3.66 | 1.07 | 59.1% | 19.9% | 5.6% | 1.01 | 1.46 | |
| Rusin | CHC | 20.1 | 3.98 | 4.55 | 1.23 | 25.0% | 15.3% | 8.2% | 0.89 | 1.35 | |
| Lynn | STL | 143.0 | 3.78 | 3.70 | 1.23 | 56.5% | 23.5% | 8.7% | 0.50 | 1.22 | |
| Liriano | PIT | 102.2 | 2.02 | 3.46 | 1.15 | 68.8% | 25.4% | 10.1% | 0.35 | 2.06 | |
| De La Rosa | COL | 130.1 | 3.31 | 4.33 | 1.34 | 52.2% | 16.3% | 8.4% | 0.55 | 1.73 | |
| Hefner | NYM | 125.2 | 4.23 | 4.00 | 1.26 | 47.8% | 18.5% | 6.4% | 1.43 | 1.22 | |
| Corbin | ARI | 150.1 | 2.33 | 3.55 | 1.02 | 77.3% | 21.6% | 6.4% | 0.60 | 1.48 | |
| Lohse | MIL | 139.1 | 3.23 | 4.14 | 1.13 | 43.5% | 16.0% | 4.1% | 1.29 | 1.01 | |
| Saunders | SEA | 135.2 | 4.58 | 4.47 | 1.50 | 52.2% | 13.3% | 7.1% | 1.13 | 1.76 | |
| Price | TBR | 112.1 | 3.36 | 3.45 | 1.05 | 56.3% | 20.2% | 3.4% | 1.12 | 1.28 | |
| Capuano | LAD | 75.2 | 4.16 | 3.88 | 1.32 | 42.9% | 18.3% | 5.3% | 1.07 | 1.24 | |
| Tillman | BAL | 132.0 | 3.89 | 4.24 | 1.33 | 45.5% | 19.8% | 9.1% | 1.57 | 0.97 | |
| Vogelsong | SFG | 46.1 | 7.19 | 4.28 | 1.73 | 0.0% | 18.4% | 8.3% | 2.14 | 1.11 | |
STARTING PITCHER BREAKDOWN
Here is a look at the day’s slate of arms and how they might stack in their given matchups.
BEST BUYS:
These aren’t just low-cost guys with good matchups and/or venues, but you will also find expensive studs in here with great matchups. An ace facing another ace won’t find his way in here because the win probability for both is sliced significantly by facing each other.
Matt Garza, TEX (at HOU) – He’s only logged 16 Ks in his three starts (22.3 IP) as a Ranger, but that number is headed upward in a big way tonight. Even though the Astros have been hitting better of late with a league average wOBA against righties in the last month, they are still fanning 26% of the time which is just insane. He will be a very popular pick today.
David Price, TB (at LAD) – I’m not sure anyone can stop Price right now and so I’d trust him fully even against the red-hot Dodgers.
Jered Weaver, LAA (at CLE) – Weaver has been the AL’s best pitcher since the All-Star break with a 1.23 ERA (fourth overall). He’s 3-0 in four starts (7 IP/1 ER in the non-win) with a 25% K rate and 3.5 K/BB ratio in 29.3 IP. He’s gone 7+ IP in all but one, too (6.7 IP/0 ER v. OAK). The Indians are absolutely reeling after a four-game sweep at the hands of the Tigers, but even without that fact, they aren’t special against righties.
Patrick Corbin, ARI (v. NYM) – After a 6 IP/5 ER outing in New York against the Mets on July 2nd, Corbin has reeled off a 1.82 ERA in five starts with 40 Ks in 34.7 IP. I think he exacts revenge on the Mets at home tonight.
Rick Porcello, DET (at NYY) – Porcello is vigorously helping Jose Iglesias heal his toe contusion so he’s ready for Friday night’s game. He’s never had such a talented shortstop scooping up his multitude of groundballs and this is a huge upgrade for him. Meanwhile, he’s been on fire even without Iglesias posting a 1.87 ERA in his last five starts. The Yankees have a .294 wOBA against righties on the year (27th) and it’s even worse over the last month at .265 – good for second-worst in MLB.
Lance Lynn, STL (v. CHC) – After an early-July lull, Lynn’s on fire with a 1.71 ERA in his last three including 24 Ks in 21 IP. The Cubs administered one of those pounding back in early July when they got to him for 6 ER in 4.7 IP, but I love him to avenge that outing.
John Lannan, PHI (at WAS) – Lannan gets his former teammates for the third time this year and he has been sharp against them both times including eight scoreless with four hits allowed and four strikeouts back on July 8th. The Nats have the lowest wOBA in baseball against lefties at .272 and it’s barely better over the last month at just .282.
Dan Haren, WAS (v. PHI) – Haren has been much better of late with a 2.40 ERA in his last five with only one dud (5 IP/5 ER v. PIT). He has a 32/8 K/BB ratio in the 30 IP. The first start of this streak was a 5 IP/2 ER/7 K outing in Philly, but he took the loss. He has at least six strikeouts in each of the five outings.
Chris Tillman, BAL (at SF) – Tillman was on fire before running into the hot Mariners who pasted him with a 5.3 IP/6 ER outing his last time out. The Giants are just below league average against righties, but they are 21st in wOBA against righties at home.
GOOD BUYS:
This is where a lot of the high-priced big arms with decent or worse matchups will reside. Any top arm can thwart even the toughest lineup, but it’s not always the most sensible buy when they are among the most costly arms on the board. This is also where the ace v. ace matchups will be as they still have the potential for a big score, but just lack the high probability of the ever-important win.
Jake Peavy, BOS (at KC) – Peavy was great in his Boston debut (7 IP/2 ER) and now has 14 Ks in his last two outings (14 IP). The Royals have been better offensively of late with a just-above-league-average .313 wOBA (.308 lg avg), but I still like Peavy here. He doesn’t quite make the Best Buys, though, thanks to facing Ervin Santana on the other side which could result in a pitcher’s duel and no win for either.
Ervin Santana, KC (v. BOS) – While many are still waiting for the other shoe to drop, Santana still holds a sub-3.00 ERA and he’s now through 22 starts. He faced the Red Sox back in late-April and went 7 IP/2 ER against them with seven strikeouts. This could be the best game of the day with he and Peavy toe-to-toe.
Ivan Nova, NYY (v. DET) – I’m a little cautious of Nova facing the Tigers, but he’s been insane since returning from the DL with a 2.15 ERA in 50.3 IP. He has 48 strikeouts and a 3.7 K/BB ratio, too. Since the All-Star break he has three straight 7 IP starts with a 1.71 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, and 20 strikeouts including starts in Texas and against Tampa Bay.
Francisco Liriano, PIT (at COL) – It’ll be interesting to see how he follows up his 7 IP/0 ER outing against Colorado last time out. That was in PNC Park and this time he goes to Coors Field, but I’m not completely running away from him just because of that.
Bronson Arroyo, CIN (v. SD) – And there you see why I’m always so reticent to trust Arroyo no matter how well he’s pitching. He had a 3.7 IP/7 ER outing against the Cards his last time out pushing his ERA from 3.26 to 3.62. He can get hot, but his bad is sooooo bad. Alas, he gets the Padres here so a bounce back is quite likely.
Jacob Turner, MIA (at ATL) – Turner has been great this year for the Marlins as he’s yet to allow more than four earned in any single start (and he’s only done that once). He faced the Braves on July 10th and had a 7 IP/2 ER outing notching five strikeouts as well. In fact, that kicked off a five-game stretch of 3.26 ERA with 30 strikeouts in 40.3 IP. I like him more as a secondary option today.
Brandon Beachy, ATL (v. MIA) – Beachy has just two starts this year with a 9.00 ERA, but his stuff has looked much better than that. He gets the Marlins so we could see our first big start out of him since his return from injury. They rate last in wOBA both for the year (.272) and in the last month (.260). They’re terrible.
Jorge de la Rosa, COL (v. PIT) – DLR is the rare Rockies pitcher who is better at home. He has a 2.65 ERA at home compared to a 3.84 on the road. He faces the modest Pirates offense, too, which creates a perfect opportunity for him to continue that trend.
Kyle Lohse, MIL (at SEA) – Lohse has run hot since the All-Star break with a 1.13 ERA in four starts, but the Mariners are no joke offensively carrying their hot July (5.2 R/G) into August with 5.4 R/G so far in seven games. I’ve got Lohse right on the cusp between Good and Caution.
USE CAUTION:
Jarrod Parker, OAK (at TOR) – The Blue Jays have a .340 wOBA at Rogers Centre and the league has a .344; I’m a Parker believer, but I almost treat Roger Centre like Coors Field of the AL.
Joe Saunders, SEA (v. MIL) – Saunders is wildly inconsistent and the reason he is particularly untrustworthy is because you never know when it’s coming. He has gems against great teams and duds against terrible teams.
Ryan Vogelsong, SF (v. BAL) – Vogey was sharp in four rehab starts with a 13/3 K/BB ratio in his 15.7 IP of work. He draws a tough debut in his return so I’d play it cautiously here especially as I’m not sure he’ll go much more than five innings even if he’s doing well.
Andrew Cashner, SD (at CIN) – He’s become a home-start/road-sit play right now. He has a 2.51 ERA and 3.5 K/BB ratio at home; 5.02 ERA and 1.7 K/BB on the road.
Chris Capuano, LAD (v. TB) – The Rays pummel lefties… well, unless you’re Wade Miley, but beyond that they are second in wOBA against lefties on the season at .337.
Esmil Rogers, TOR (v. OAK) – He’s allowed 10 hits in each of his last three outings and he has a 7.36 ERA in his last six outings since July 1st.
Erik Bedard, HOU (v. TEX) – We’ve seen some solid work recently: 2.82 ERA in his last four with 28 Ks in 22.3 IP, but his bad is really bad. And the start before those 22.3 IP was a 6.3 IP/4 ER outing against Texas during which he allowed 10 base runners including 5 BB.
Liam Hendriks, MIN (at CWS) – Hendriks hasn’t been with the Twins since early April and he wasn’t particularly special in Triple-A (5.12 ERA in 84.3 IP). Of course the White Sox are quite inept offensively so it wouldn’t be crazy to see a decent outing from Hendriks. I’m passing, though.
Charlie Leesman, CWS (v. MIN) – The 26-year old is making his MLB debut after a 3.47 ERA and 1.45 WHIP in 72.7 IP at Triple-A. No thanks.
NOT AT ALL CONFIDENT, HERE’S WHY:
Jeremy Hefner, NYM (at ARI) – I need to see a few in a row before trusting him again.
Ubaldo Jimenez, CLE (v. LAA) – I’m never confident in him. Ever. How was he ever awesome?
YOU CAN SAFELY IGNORE:
Couldn’t pay me to use these guys.
- Chris Rusin, CHC
ADVANCED METRICS: August 9th, 2013
| VS. L/R HANDED BATTERS | OPP vs L/R | OTHER ADVANCED STATS | |||||||||||
| PITCHER | wOBA L | ERA L | wOBA R | ERA R | AVG | OPS | BABIP | FIP | AVG-A | Pit/G | Strk% | ||
| Lannan | 0.342 | 3.46 | 0.331 | 4.36 | 0.212 | 0.620 | 0.302 | 3.67 | 0.271 | 90.92 | 62.3% | ||
| Haren | 0.324 | 5.33 | 0.364 | 5.00 | 0.255 | 0.698 | 0.313 | 4.43 | 0.277 | 92.70 | 65.1% | ||
| Weaver | 0.294 | 3.36 | 0.296 | 2.29 | 0.254 | 0.736 | 0.275 | 3.40 | 0.232 | 101.93 | 62.7% | ||
| Jimenez | 0.318 | 3.84 | 0.360 | 4.68 | 0.276 | 0.771 | 0.294 | 4.45 | 0.246 | 97.64 | 60.8% | ||
| Porcello | 0.347 | 4.63 | 0.271 | 3.92 | 0.241 | 0.676 | 0.308 | 3.55 | 0.268 | 90.90 | 64.0% | ||
| Nova | 0.294 | 3.47 | 0.296 | 2.78 | 0.283 | 0.780 | 0.322 | 2.96 | 0.245 | 85.77 | 63.9% | ||
| Parker | 0.328 | 4.52 | 0.299 | 3.54 | 0.253 | 0.749 | 0.250 | 4.62 | 0.230 | 92.64 | 62.1% | ||
| Rogers | 0.392 | 4.82 | 0.325 | 4.63 | 0.245 | 0.708 | 0.327 | 4.23 | 0.290 | 44.06 | 63.4% | ||
| Cashner | 0.310 | 4.11 | 0.308 | 3.60 | 0.250 | 0.722 | 0.283 | 3.77 | 0.248 | 80.74 | 62.7% | ||
| Arroyo | 0.358 | 4.48 | 0.264 | 2.80 | 0.242 | 0.672 | 0.269 | 4.16 | 0.254 | 91.50 | 66.4% | ||
| Turner | 0.278 | 3.06 | 0.295 | 2.48 | 0.256 | 0.751 | 0.275 | 3.21 | 0.230 | 95.00 | 62.5% | ||
| Beachy | 0.245 | 3.86 | 0.520 | 13.50 | 0.233 | 0.618 | 0.323 | 6.04 | 0.302 | 91.00 | 64.8% | ||
| Garza | 0.287 | 3.29 | 0.293 | 2.88 | 0.231 | 0.662 | 0.259 | 3.66 | 0.223 | 100.71 | 63.6% | ||
| Bedard | 0.362 | 5.63 | 0.339 | 3.93 | 0.262 | 0.731 | 0.297 | 4.42 | 0.248 | 87.86 | 61.9% | ||
| Hendriks | 0.267 | 3.18 | 0.418 | 6.75 | 0.250 | 0.683 | 0.306 | 3.97 | 0.286 | 95.00 | 67.4% | ||
| Leesman | 0.251 | 0.693 | |||||||||||
| Peavy | 0.331 | 4.34 | 0.293 | 4.08 | 0.253 | 0.682 | 0.272 | 4.06 | 0.236 | 100.29 | 67.6% | ||
| Santana | 0.287 | 2.48 | 0.290 | 3.68 | 0.284 | 0.814 | 0.258 | 3.65 | 0.226 | 102.09 | 65.1% | ||
| Rusin | 0.245 | 5.40 | 0.304 | 3.52 | 0.245 | 0.695 | 0.254 | 4.07 | 0.231 | 80.75 | 59.8% | ||
| Lynn | 0.322 | 5.03 | 0.275 | 2.84 | 0.245 | 0.708 | 0.299 | 3.07 | 0.231 | 101.17 | 64.5% | ||
| Liriano | 0.163 | 1.90 | 0.295 | 2.09 | 0.252 | 0.686 | 0.272 | 2.71 | 0.203 | 97.38 | 61.8% | ||
| De La Rosa | 0.253 | 1.88 | 0.332 | 3.73 | 0.253 | 0.731 | 0.301 | 3.60 | 0.258 | 92.61 | 61.4% | ||
| Hefner | 0.368 | 4.99 | 0.297 | 3.72 | 0.253 | 0.707 | 0.278 | 4.48 | 0.252 | 89.00 | 64.1% | ||
| Corbin | 0.228 | 2.08 | 0.281 | 2.43 | 0.243 | 0.688 | 0.253 | 3.07 | 0.208 | 97.95 | 65.7% | ||
| Lohse | 0.302 | 3.36 | 0.310 | 3.13 | 0.253 | 0.744 | 0.269 | 4.15 | 0.251 | 92.61 | 66.4% | ||
| Saunders | 0.246 | 2.57 | 0.409 | 5.33 | 0.261 | 0.717 | 0.319 | 4.50 | 0.295 | 97.43 | 59.7% | ||
| Price | 0.254 | 3.20 | 0.302 | 3.48 | 0.264 | 0.728 | 0.278 | 3.53 | 0.243 | 95.56 | 69.2% | ||
| Capuano | 0.290 | 3.43 | 0.354 | 4.47 | 0.285 | 0.779 | 0.311 | 3.70 | 0.271 | 74.75 | 63.4% | ||
| Tillman | 0.310 | 3.72 | 0.359 | 4.25 | 0.265 | 0.709 | 0.281 | 4.83 | 0.253 | 104.77 | 62.4% | ||
| Vogelsong | 0.393 | 6.38 | 0.435 | 8.31 | 0.274 | 0.785 | 0.349 | 5.76 | 0.315 | 93.33 | 62.1% | ||
- Opp Avg vs. L/R – Opponent Batting Average vs. Left/Right Handed Pitching
- Opp OPS vs. L/R – Opponent On Base + Slugging Percentage vs. Left/Right Handed Pitching
- wOBA-L and wOBA-R – Pitcher Weighted On Base Percentage Against vs. Left/Right Handed Batters
- ERA-L and ERA-R – Pitcher Earned Run Average against Left/Right Handed Batters
- BABIP – Pitcher Batting Average Against on Balls In Play
- FIP – Fielding Independent Pitching
- Pit/G – Average Pitches Thrown Per Game
- Strk% – Percentage of Pitches for Strikes
Starting Pitcher Salaries: August 9th, 2013
Click the image below to view pitcher salaries by each daily fantasy site along with their percent of top statistics.
- Percent of Top (Top) – Player salary divided by the most expensive pitcher each day. So if Felix Hernandez is $9,000 on FanDuel and Justin Verlander is $4,500, Verlanders Top stat would be 50.
NOTE: Button for pitcher salary chart above opens in popup window