Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Friday, September 4th

by Doug Thorburn (DougThorburn) Last Updated 2015-09-06 13:59:51

Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.

There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside, so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game, so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find the needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.

LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE

Daily Pitcher Chart

Editor’s Note: Corey Kluber has been scratched from tonight’s start. Josh Tomlin will start in his place.

Pitcher	TM	OPP	IP	ERA	SIERA	WHIP	GEM%	K%	BB%	HR/9	G/F
Godley	ARI	CHC	23.2	1.90	3.44	1.10		23.7%	8.6%	0.76	2.21
Lester	CHC	ARI	382.2	2.94	3.15	1.15	65.0%	24.8%	5.6%	0.71	1.36
Teheran	ATL	WAS	382.2	3.62	3.87	1.19	70.0%	20.7%	6.9%	1.08	0.92
Roark	WAS	ATL	278	3.33	3.94	1.15	52.6%	16.8%	5.0%	0.91	1.24
Odorizzi	TBR	NYY	301	3.71	3.70	1.22	36.8%	23.0%	7.3%	0.90	0.77
Severino	NYY	TBR	29	2.17	3.71	1.10		24.8%	9.4%	0.93	1.38
Jimenez	BAL	TOR	272.2	4.56	4.19	1.44	27.8%	21.0%	10.7%	1.06	1.41
Hutchison	TOR	BAL	323.1	4.65	3.74	1.32	31.6%	22.1%	7.2%	1.06	0.92
Kluber	CLE	DET	436	2.89	2.76	1.07	57.1%	28.0%	5.1%	0.68	1.38
Lobstein	DET	CLE	87	4.34	4.67	1.36		12.8%	8.2%	0.62	1.69
Degrom	NYM	MIA	303.1	2.49	3.11	1.04	50.0%	26.2%	6.4%	0.65	1.34
Koehler	MIA	NYM	342	3.95	4.34	1.30	52.6%	18.0%	8.7%	0.95	1.15
Garza	MIL	CIN	307.1	4.54	4.28	1.35	35.0%	17.3%	7.8%	1.02	1.29
Sampson	CIN	MIL	28	6.43	4.48	1.79		18.8%	9.8%	1.29	1.19
Morgan	PHI	BOS	67	4.03	5.24	1.21		12.6%	5.1%	1.75	0.54
Kelly	BOS	PHI	216.2	4.61	4.27	1.39	40.0%	17.2%	9.0%	0.91	1.82
Danks	CHW	KCR	339.1	4.77	4.60	1.43	50.0%	15.6%	7.9%	1.19	1.03
Medlen	KCR	CHW	25.2	3.51	3.22	1.01		25.0%	7.0%	1.05	1.21
Pelfrey	MIN	HOU	166.1	4.44	4.92	1.52		11.0%	8.2%	0.65	1.85
McHugh	HOU	MIN	320	3.35	3.55	1.15	42.9%	22.2%	6.4%	0.82	1.27
Happ	PIT	STL	294	4.16	4.04	1.35	30.8%	19.1%	7.2%	1.10	1.14
Martinez	STL	PIT	244	3.32	3.42	1.32		23.2%	8.7%	0.59	2.07
Heston	SFG	COL	154.2	3.61	4.00	1.26		18.0%	8.0%	0.64	2.16
De La Rosa	COL	SFG	313.1	4.22	4.10	1.30	40.0%	19.3%	9.7%	1.03	1.78
Perez	TEX	LAA	95	4.74	4.02	1.39	37.5%	15.2%	7.6%	0.38	2.45
Richards	LAA	TEX	329.2	3.19	3.52	1.13	65.0%	21.8%	7.5%	0.55	1.85
Olmos	SEA	OAK	12.2	2.13	5.94	1.34		7.3%	12.7%	0.00	1.69
Brooks	OAK	SEA	29	9.00	4.10	1.69		17.2%	5.2%	1.24	0.97
Bolsinger	LAD	SDP	141.1	3.82	3.63	1.37	33.3%	20.9%	8.0%	0.64	2.06
Shields	SDP	LAD	398.1	3.46	3.55	1.24	42.9%	21.9%	6.3%	1.11	1.33

ALL-IN:

The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.

Jacob deGrom NYM (at MIA) – The regression had to come sooner or later, so let’s hope that deGrom got it all out of his system against the Phillies two starts ago; the seven runs (six earned) that he surrendered in 2.7 innings pitched raised his ERA by 0.31 runs that day, but the right-hander responded with 10 strikeouts and two runs allowed to the streaking Red Sox in his follow-up turn. This time around he gets treated to a much less potent lineup, particularly given the speed bump that Giancarlo Stanton hit in his recovery that will keep him out of the lineup for awhile longer (if not the whole season). He hasn’t faced the intradivision Marlins since April, but in that game deGrom tossed 7.0 shutout frames and punched out eight hitters against zero walks, so the onus is on the Marlins to prove that they can hit deGrom’s stuff, not the other way around.

RAISE:

The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.

James Shields SD (vs. LAD) – The Dodgers’ offense is firing on zero cylinders right now, with half of their starting lineup hurting and the other half slumping, the result of which was a seven-day wOBA of .267 with a 606 OPS. Playing Shields has been a gamble this season due to the risk of blow-up, as evidenced by two of his last four starts being five-run implosions; the other two were gems, but the fact that he was playing the Braves and Phillies killed some of the enthusiasm surrounding those impressive starts. Shields has enjoyed pitching at Petco this season, with a home ERA of 2.78 versus a 4.68 mark on the road, but his vulnerability to left-handed batters could be exposed by the likes of Adrian Gonzalez and Joc Pederson – Shields is getting shelled by lefty bats this year to the tune of a .278/.354/.508 slash and 17 home runs.

Carlos Martinez STL (vs. PIT) – Car-Mart got a couple extra days of rest as the Cardinals monitor his sore back as well as his workload; the converted reliever has already thrown 65 more innings in 2015 than he did in the regular season last year. The decision to give Martinez a breather might have also been tied to his recent performance, as the right-hander has posted a 4.84 ERA over his last six starts and has given up at least three runs in each contest, though his 35-to-6 ratio of strikeouts to walks superficially excuses the extra runs on the scoreboard.

Luis Severino NYY (vs. TB) – His stat line looks prettier than the two men above him and he has the softest opponent of the three, but as much as I like the path that he is following, the hype balloon has been filled with a bit too much helium. The Rays have been raking lately, and not just against southpaws, with a .350 wOBA in the last seven days. Severino makes for a great upside play in GPP tournaments, but I would probably shy away in cash games due to the high-risk portfolio.

Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against

Pitcher	wOBA vs L	ERA vs L	wOBA vs R	ERA vs R	AVG	OPS	BABIP	FIP	AVG-A	Pit/G	Strk%
Godley	0.240	2.53	0.325	1.38	0.242	0.718	0.271	3.64	0.217	71.00	23.7%
Lester	0.309	2.91	0.286	2.95	0.263	0.723	0.307	2.91	0.24	104.45	24.8%
Teheran	0.340	4.30	0.269	2.99	0.250	0.723	0.280	3.94	0.24	98.50	20.7%
Roark	0.316	3.68	0.275	3.01	0.256	0.681	0.276	3.76	0.246	66.06	16.8%
Odorizzi	0.279	3.52	0.321	3.94	0.252	0.742	0.289	3.49	0.235	97.49	23.0%
Severino	0.314	2.30	0.212	2.03	0.241	0.681	0.247	3.72	0.2	98.00	24.8%
Jimenez	0.338	5.03	0.323	4.00	0.260	0.770	0.304	4.34	0.253	93.39	21.0%
Hutchison	0.332	5.39	0.317	3.75	0.252	0.735	0.313	3.84	0.258	93.58	22.1%
Kluber	0.313	3.25	0.234	2.51	0.268	0.741	0.306	2.59	0.229	103.73	28.0%
Lobstein	0.273	3.34	0.328	4.87	0.260	0.708	0.288	3.98	0.26	89.40	12.8%
Degrom	0.283	2.60	0.235	2.39	0.248	0.665	0.274	2.79	0.211	101.23	26.2%
Koehler	0.305	3.78	0.322	4.13	0.244	0.698	0.282	4.17	0.246	91.55	18.0%
Garza	0.331	4.41	0.314	4.64	0.248	0.702	0.292	4.19	0.257	92.96	17.3%
Sampson	0.417	7.71	0.337	5.51	0.259	0.717	0.363	4.60	0.308	82.71	18.8%
Morgan	0.239	3.77	0.360	4.10	0.267	0.748	0.256	5.41	0.259	81.75	12.6%
Kelly	0.311	3.73	0.340	5.61	0.250	0.684	0.295	4.29	0.257	94.59	17.2%
Danks	0.305	4.38	0.359	4.91	0.266	0.703	0.297	4.64	0.27	99.63	15.6%
Medlen	0.328	5.40	0.223	1.46	0.253	0.699	0.254	3.75	0.209	41.33	25.0%
Pelfrey	0.337	4.13	0.343	4.73	0.243	0.727	0.318	4.39	0.291	91.37	11.0%
McHugh	0.272	3.06	0.307	3.69	0.244	0.697	0.285	3.40	0.234	100.43	22.2%
Happ	0.353	3.94	0.324	4.23	0.237	0.679	0.307	4.06	0.266	89.43	19.1%
Martinez	0.350	4.17	0.269	2.65	0.260	0.720	0.320	3.26	0.249	45.90	23.2%
Heston	0.350	4.61	0.270	2.77	0.272	0.778	0.294	3.77	0.249	85.71	18.0%
De La Rosa	0.274	3.45	0.331	4.46	0.272	0.714	0.273	4.33	0.236	95.09	19.3%
Perez	0.253	5.40	0.349	4.52	0.234	0.666	0.328	3.46	0.281	91.50	15.2%
Richards	0.253	2.96	0.286	3.48	0.262	0.738	0.274	3.15	0.22	100.76	21.8%
Olmos	0.327	3.38	0.258	1.80	0.252	0.695	0.233	4.39	0.213	39.40	7.3%
Brooks	0.321	5.79	0.470	12.00	0.239	0.712	0.392	4.37	0.339	53.56	17.2%
Bolsinger	0.343	3.86	0.292	3.80	0.246	0.690	0.324	3.31	0.262	85.73	20.9%
Shields	0.334	3.57	0.306	3.35	0.248	0.740	0.3	3.84	0.252	103.69	21.9%

CALL:

Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.

Garrett Richards LAA (vs. TEX) – The Rangers mash right-handers, and though Richards has the upside to score 30 points (on DraftKings) on any given day, his volatility could just as easily lead to a self-detonated bomb that explodes within eight innings. The frustrating part is the waiting, as Richards is bound to have an extended outing, given that 21 of his 25 starts of 2015 have lasted six or more innings, yet his last eight turns in a row have had three or more runners cross the plate on Richards’ watch.

Collin McHugh HOU (at MIN) – August was a month of redemption for McHugh, who spun five starts in the month that each consumed 6.0-to-7.0 innings with only one or two runs allowed in each turn. He bested some tough offenses along the way, including Detroit, Arizona, and in his last start the Yankees, posting a combined ERA of 1.89 for the month with 34 strikeouts in 33.3 innings of work. The Twins have been leaning on Miguel Sano, so if he’s out for the second straight game then McHugh becomes a more enticing option.

J.A. Happ PIT (vs. STL) – Happ doesn’t strike much fear into most hitters, with his low-90’s velocity that is considered pedestrian by today’s fast-paced standards, but he has quietly taken to his new digs in Pittsburgh with 27.3 innings of excellent performance. Maybe it’s the magic of Pirates’ pitching coach Ray Searage or maybe it’s just happenstance, but Happ enjoyed a brilliant first month with his new ballclub, with a 1.98 ERA and 24 strikeouts across five starts. Happ is in a good position to continue the run, facing a Cardinals club that has had its share of problems with hitting southpaws (.299 wOBA, 679 OPS).

Jake Odorizzi TB (at NYY) – The right-hander has had a pair of six-run starts in his past nine outings. The first one was against the Blue Jays at their dome, so the rough start was perfectly within reason; the second blow-up start was at home against the Braves, who was without Freddie Freeman at the time, the explanation to which completely lacks reason. He has strikeout upside and will limit the free passes, but the final count for Odorizzi will depend on balls in play.

Julio Teheran ATL (at WAS) – Just as his home-road splits were becoming a staple of sportswriters everywhere, Teheran tossed those splits into a dumpster fire after giving up eight runs at home to the Yankees in his last start. Back on the road again, Teheran gets to return to the NL East to face a familiar foe, not that the familiarity is a good thing: the right-hander has given up 20 hits (including four homers) and 13 runs across 10.7 innings in two starts against the Nats this season.

Kris Medlen KC (vs. CHW)

Drew Hutchison TOR (vs. BAL)

Tanner Roark WAS (vs. ATL)

Tom Koehler MIA (vs. NYM)

Martin Perez TEX (at LAA)

Mike Bolsinger LAD (at SD)

Mike Pelfrey MIN (at HOU)