Daily Pitcher Breakdown: July 11th
The Daily Pitcher Breakdown goes in-depth to look at nearly every pitching option, with a focus on the best targets for each night. Sometimes there will be a best of the rest section featuring guys who are likely low-dollar options with some upside for those of you who prefer to load your lineup with hitting studs.
There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in White are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ
Daily Pitcher Chart
| Pitcher | TM | OPP | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wood | ATL | CHC | 80.1 | 3.14 | 3.24 | 1.19 | 57.1% | 23.4% | 6.2% | 1.01 | 1.27 |
| Arrieta | CHC | ATL | 70.2 | 1.78 | 2.74 | 1.03 | 28.6% | 28.3% | 6.8% | 0.25 | 1.76 |
| Noesi | CWS | CLE | 82.2 | 4.90 | 4.31 | 1.50 | 25.0% | 18.0% | 8.7% | 1.20 | 0.95 |
| Kluber | CLE | CWS | 125.2 | 2.86 | 2.85 | 1.18 | 50.0% | 26.6% | 5.8% | 0.64 | 1.56 |
| Kuroda | NYY | BAL | 109.1 | 4.20 | 3.90 | 1.26 | 38.5% | 16.7% | 5.0% | 1.07 | 1.38 |
| Gonzalez | BAL | NYY | 81 | 4.22 | 4.37 | 1.52 | 40.0% | 17.8% | 8.9% | 1.56 | 0.98 |
| Zimmermann | WAS | PHI | 109.2 | 2.79 | 3.29 | 1.20 | 38.5% | 21.4% | 4.5% | 0.49 | 1.44 |
| Burnett | PHI | WAS | 124 | 3.92 | 4.10 | 1.34 | 42.9% | 19.1% | 9.9% | 0.65 | 1.79 |
| Locke | PIT | CIN | 49.2 | 3.08 | 3.61 | 0.93 | 50.0% | 15.7% | 3.1% | 0.54 | 1.77 |
| Latos | CIN | PIT | 33.2 | 2.41 | 4.28 | 0.78 | 14.4% | 4.0% | 0.27 | 0.95 | |
| Buehrle | TOR | TBR | 121.1 | 2.60 | 4.47 | 1.25 | 76.9% | 13.9% | 6.2% | 0.67 | 1.18 |
| Archer | TBR | TOR | 108.1 | 3.16 | 3.87 | 1.30 | 53.8% | 20.6% | 9.2% | 0.42 | 1.68 |
| Alvarez | MIA | NYM | 115 | 2.27 | 3.65 | 1.24 | 38.5% | 14.7% | 4.6% | 0.39 | 2.40 |
| Wheeler | NYM | MIA | 101.2 | 4.07 | 3.66 | 1.38 | 46.2% | 22.9% | 10.2% | 0.62 | 1.96 |
| Richards | LAA | TEX | 116.1 | 2.71 | 3.30 | 1.07 | 53.8% | 25.3% | 8.7% | 0.31 | 1.69 |
| Tepesch | TEX | LAA | 50.1 | 4.29 | 4.80 | 1.38 | 20.0% | 15.3% | 9.7% | 1.25 | 1.02 |
| Lackey | BOS | HOU | 117.1 | 3.84 | 3.25 | 1.25 | 69.2% | 21.6% | 4.7% | 1.00 | 1.52 |
| Feldman | HOU | BOS | 84 | 3.86 | 4.27 | 1.29 | 50.0% | 14.3% | 5.8% | 0.96 | 1.41 |
| Kelly | STL | MIL | 15.1 | 0.59 | 3.69 | 1.26 | 33.3% | 13.9% | 6.2% | 0.00 | 3.22 |
| Gallardo | MIL | STL | 109.2 | 3.45 | 3.77 | 1.24 | 46.2% | 18.0% | 6.7% | 0.90 | 1.81 |
| Sanchez | DET | KCR | 87.2 | 3.18 | 3.97 | 1.03 | 40.0% | 19.0% | 7.1% | 0.31 | 1.12 |
| Duffy | KCR | DET | 78.2 | 2.86 | 4.30 | 1.13 | 42.9% | 19.0% | 9.0% | 0.80 | 0.76 |
| Johnson | MIN | COL | 4.1 | 0.00 | 6.63 | 2.44 | 22.7% | 27.3% | 0.00 | 6.00 | |
| De La Rosa | COL | MIN | 96.2 | 4.75 | 4.40 | 1.32 | 38.5% | 17.0% | 10.2% | 1.12 | 1.67 |
| Samardzija | OAK | SEA | 115 | 2.74 | 3.23 | 1.17 | 69.2% | 22.8% | 6.8% | 0.55 | 1.94 |
| Hernandez | SEA | OAK | 136.1 | 2.11 | 2.43 | 0.90 | 71.4% | 27.6% | 4.4% | 0.26 | 2.09 |
| Hahn | SDP | LAD | 34.2 | 2.34 | 2.86 | 1.05 | 29.5% | 8.6% | 0.52 | 1.86 | |
| Haren | LAD | SDP | 108.2 | 4.06 | 3.79 | 1.25 | 38.5% | 16.9% | 4.2% | 1.49 | 1.38 |
| Bolsinger | ARI | SFG | 47.1 | 5.13 | 3.47 | 1.55 | 25.0% | 20.1% | 7.0% | 1.14 | 2.05 |
| Lincecum | SFG | ARI | 106 | 3.91 | 3.85 | 1.28 | 23.1% | 21.4% | 9.4% | 0.93 | 1.55 |
Here is a look at the day’s slate of arms and how they might stack in their given matchups.
If a guy isn’t listed, he’s just kind of a neutral option – I’m not using him, but I’m not stacking against him, either.
BEST BUYS:
These aren’t just low-cost guys with good matchups and/or venues, but you will also find expensive studs in here with great matchups.
Felix Hernandez SEA (v. OAK) – There are some really straightforward options on the board today so I hope you’ll understand if I’m a little short with my discussion of them. I mean, what can I really say about Hernandez to sway you one way or the other? He’s amazing and he’s been pitching some of his very best baseball of late. Remember his 0-strikeout game in Oakland back on May 7th? That seems to have been the catalyst for him as he’s dropped a 1.72 ERA in 11 starts since then with 92 Ks in 83.7 IP. Oakland, for as good as they’ve been these last few years, don’t exactly handle Felix like they do Darvish. He has a 2.64 career ERA against them, including a 2.82 from 2012-2014.
Garrett Richards LAA (at TEX) – Facing the Rangers just isn’t that scary this year, even in their home ballpark. Richards has ripped them a couple of times in LA, but he gets an even more decimated Rangers lineup this time around in Arlington. Richards’ breakout has been very believable this year with incredible skills supporting his gaudy numbers. In fact, his 2.71 FIP is a dead-even match for his ERA.
Corey Kluber CLE (v. CWS) – Kluber joins Richards as a Final Vote also-ran for the All-Star Game, but the two will now wait to see if they can get in via an injury replacement. Kluber is just as deserving as Richards with a fantastic 2014 season that seen incredible results and the skills to match. Kluber’s FIP is actually 0.20 lower than his 2.86 ERA while his SIERA is a match. In short, he’s been fantastic. The White Sox have devolved into more of a league average team against righties after their hot start. Pitchers still need to be careful with Jose Abreu, but Adam Dunn and Conor Gillaspie are the only other batters with an OPS+ north of 100.
Jeff Samardzija OAK (at SEA) – Sometimes the intangible stuff is where it’s at. You didn’t have to watch much of Samardzija’s Oakland debut last Sunday to see just how excited he was to be with a winning ballclub. He pitched brilliantly and appeared to be having A LOT of fun doing it. This Hernandez-Samardzija duel could be one the season’s best and while I can advocate using either, you just do so under the assumption that you won’t be getting a win. A double no-decision is very much in play tonight. Of course if you’re looking purely at value, I’d rate Samardzija ahead of Hernandez for the money saved, but Hernandez is still the favorite to deliver the higher point total.
Chris Archer TB (v. TOR) – Archer’s had some ups and downs this year. He had a 5.16 ERA through his first eight starts, but he’s dropped a 1.71 ERA on the league in his 10 starts since with 58 strikeouts in 63 innings. His walk total is a bit high (3.9 BB/9 in his last 10), but he mitigates that with a meager 6.6 H/9 which has helped him maintain a solid 1.16 WHIP during this run. Archer catches Toronto at a good time as they are not only struggling, but also hurting with Edwin Encarnacion, Brett Lawrie, and Adam Lind all on the disabled list.
Anibal Sanchez DET (at KC) – Sanchez had been rolling prior to his last outing when he was trounced and the Tigers were shut down by Archer. Sanchez was dumped for seven earned, easily the most runs he has allowed all year. In fact, he hadn’t allowed more than 3 ER through his first 12 starts before Texas got him for 4 ER in 5.3 IP. Confidence shouldn’t be dashed by the rough outing against the Rays. He’s still been arguably the most consistent arm for the Tigers and he gets a team he has owned since joining Detroit. He has a 1.04 ERA in six starts against the Royals since 2012.
Mat Latos CIN (v. PIT) – Latos’ results have been tremendous, but the results are a bit light thus far – namely, the strikeout rate which has been nearly half of last year’s 8.0 K/9 at 4.8 K/9 through five starts. He’s not allowing any hits or homers which has allowed him to maintain a 2.41 ERA despite the modest strikeout total. The fact that his walk rate is substantially lower at 1.3 (down from 2.5 BB/9 last year) has also helped, of course. I expect the strikeouts to return giving him some legitimate upside, especially at his current price point at most sites right now.
Jordan Zimmermann WAS (at PHI) – Zimm was just kind of “blah” through May with a 4.07 ERA and 74 hits in 59.7 IP, but he has used six June starts and one in July to right the ship. Thanks to a 1.26 ERA surge in those seven starts, he’s now down to 2.79 for the season. He has a 0.88 WHIP and 6.6 K:BB ratio in the 50 IP spanning the seven starts, completing at least six in each game including a pair of complete games. The run started with eight shutout innings against the Phillies and they remain one of the league’s worst offenses against righties.
A.J. Burnett PHI (v. WAS) – Burnett started the season brilliantly, sputtered for a bit in mid-to-late May, but appears to be on track once again. He has a 3.05 ERA over his last six, going at least seven in five of the outings, with a 2.9 K:BB ratio. The strikeouts are light for what we are used to with 35 in 44.3 IP, but he does have eight, 10, and seven in his last three outings, so perhaps they are finally back. Burnett had 8.7 K/9 over the last three years before just 7.4 so far this year. As well as the Nats have played (22-14 since June 1st), it hasn’t been because of their offense against righties. Their .289 wOBA since June 1st is baseball’s seventh-worst total.
Yovani Gallardo MIL (v. STL) – Like Burnett, Gallardo is no longer the strikeout force he once was, but that hasn’t stopped him from pitching well. He fanned more than a batter per inning for four full seasons from 2009-2012 before dipping to 7.2 K/9 last year and just 6.8 this year. However, he has improved his walk and hit rates this year which has helped him post a much better ERA than last year’s 4.18 (he’s at 3.45 this year). I know it still feels kind of weird to say, but this Cardinals offense sucks and just got markedly worse with the injury of Yadier Molina.
Jesse Hahn SD (at LAD) – Who saw this coming? Hahn has been excellent. While he was a prospect of note coming into these season, he’s pitched like a blue-chipper. He struggled in his MLB debut (3.7 IP/4 ER), but he has since allowed a 1.45 ERA in five starts spanning 31 IP with 36 Ks and just 10 BBs. And it hasn’t just been Petco as only two of the five have come at home. The Dodgers can be tough on anyone, but it’s hard to go against Hahn right now. It will be interesting to see if he can maintain that excellent curveball against the Dodgers. It has netted 24 of his 41 Ks.
VALUE PLAYS:
These are guys aren’t inherently good buys, but they have a nice matchup and they’re likely to be very cheap so you can save with them and take the gamble that they come through with a strong effort.
Zack Wheeler NYM (v. MIA) – Wheeler has been maddeningly inconsistent this year mixing a bunch of gems and duds together for a 4.07 season ERA. When he’s good, he’s really good including a shutout in Miami back on June 19th. He was dumped for 6 ER in 2 IP in his very next start against Oakland, but then he has bounced back with back-to-back 6.3 IP/1 ER outings. The risk is substantial because he can no doubt tank you lineup, but his kind of upside at a low price (at most outlets, at least) is worth the risk as an SP2.
Henderson Alvarez MIA (at NYM) – For some reason, he’s still pretty darn cheap at a lot of outlets. What more can he do? I mean, sure, he could raise his strikeout rate, but everything else has been fantastic this year. He hasn’t allowed more than 2 ER in any of his last nine starts yielding an absurd 1.04 ERA in 60.3 IP. His 4.4 K:BB ratio in that span is nice, but comes with just 35 Ks. What you’re getting from Alvarez (at least when he’s at his best) is a lengthy outing with great ratios. You can’t really bank on a win (even though the Marlins are definitely better this year) and you shouldn’t expect more than 5 Ks as an upside. That said, his season-high 7 K performance was a shutout against these Mets.
Jeff Locke PIT (at CIN) – Locke might be moving out of the value section at some sites, but with this many studs going tonight, he should still be relatively cheap at most outlets. At somewhere like DraftKings, he’s the same price at Samardzija ($8,200) so I’m obviously going with Samardzija easily. But at DraftDay, there is nearly a $3,000 dollar split between the two, so it’ll be site-dependent, but if he’s down in the range of the Wheelers and Alvarezes of the world, then I’m interested. Locke has been killing it since getting called back up on June 8th. He has a 2.23 ERA in six starts since his recall, going fewer than 7 IP just once including back-to-back 8 IP efforts against Arizona and Philly. That Cincy offense, similar to St. Louis, has some big names, but the performance just isn’t there and you needn’t fear them, even in their home park.
Hector Noesi CWS (at CLE) – This is the perfect matchup for Noesi. He has a .905/.690 righty/lefty platoon split by OPS which plays perfectly against the lefty and switch heavy Cleveland team. On most nights, they have eight guys batting from the left side with Yan Gomes as the lone holdout. The first time Noesi faced Cleveland this year, he got two righties with Jesus Aguilar joining Gomes, but he held them to just a single run in 7.3 IP with five hits allowed, five strikeouts, and zero walks. Looking for a good gamble that will allow you to save money? Give Noesi a shot.
STAYAWAYS:
These guys should just be avoided either because of their matchup, talent-level, or both. These guys are often the ones you’ll want to stack against if you use that method.
- Kris Johnson MIN (at COL)
- Jorge de la Rosa COL (v. MIN)
- Nick Tepesch TEX (v. LAA)
Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against
| Pitcher | wOBA vs L | ERA vs L | wOBA vs R | ERA vs R | AVG | OPS | BABIP | FIP | AVG-A | Pit/G | Strk% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wood | 0.300 | 3.11 | 0.300 | 3.20 | 0.262 | 0.746 | 1.180 | 3.14 | 0.172 | 58.86 | 65.9% |
| Arrieta | 0.271 | 3.11 | 0.291 | 3.58 | 0.240 | 0.660 | 1.020 | 1.78 | 0.215 | 95.00 | 63.7% |
| Noesi | 0.333 | 4.60 | 0.399 | 6.43 | 0.259 | 0.739 | 1.490 | 4.90 | 0.093 | 73.68 | 63.8% |
| Kluber | 0.333 | 4.07 | 0.282 | 2.76 | 0.253 | 0.719 | 1.180 | 2.86 | 0.207 | 101.00 | 66.7% |
| Kuroda | 0.323 | 3.97 | 0.285 | 3.26 | 0.269 | 0.742 | 1.260 | 4.20 | 0.117 | 97.67 | 62.5% |
| Gonzalez | 0.331 | 3.51 | 0.334 | 4.33 | 0.250 | 0.693 | 1.520 | 4.22 | 0.089 | 91.27 | 62.5% |
| Zimmermann | 0.301 | 3.25 | 0.277 | 2.99 | 0.235 | 0.646 | 1.190 | 2.79 | 0.169 | 90.67 | 68.7% |
| Burnett | 0.341 | 4.62 | 0.262 | 2.72 | 0.234 | 0.670 | 1.340 | 3.92 | 0.092 | 104.21 | 60.7% |
| Locke | 0.308 | 4.06 | 0.296 | 3.32 | 0.242 | 0.681 | 0.930 | 3.08 | 0.126 | 90.43 | 68.4% |
| Latos | 0.297 | 3.22 | 0.279 | 2.96 | 0.259 | 0.718 | 0.770 | 2.41 | 0.104 | 95.20 | 65.5% |
| Buehrle | 0.319 | 3.93 | 0.325 | 3.49 | 0.259 | 0.733 | 1.240 | 2.60 | 0.078 | 102.06 | 63.5% |
| Archer | 0.315 | 3.67 | 0.266 | 2.63 | 0.266 | 0.768 | 1.290 | 3.16 | 0.114 | 97.44 | 62.5% |
| Alvarez | 0.310 | 3.12 | 0.274 | 2.68 | 0.237 | 0.671 | 1.240 | 2.27 | 0.101 | 88.33 | 66.6% |
| Wheeler | 0.352 | 5.06 | 0.281 | 2.83 | 0.254 | 0.706 | 1.380 | 4.07 | 0.127 | 99.28 | 61.3% |
| Richards | 0.299 | 3.70 | 0.264 | 3.40 | 0.256 | 0.690 | 1.070 | 2.71 | 0.166 | 102.17 | 62.0% |
| Tepesch | 0.351 | 5.23 | 0.315 | 3.81 | 0.257 | 0.730 | 1.370 | 4.29 | 0.056 | 93.22 | 60.7% |
| Lackey | 0.296 | 3.36 | 0.330 | 4.01 | 0.224 | 0.657 | 1.240 | 3.84 | 0.169 | 102.06 | 68.6% |
| Feldman | 0.309 | 4.03 | 0.303 | 3.70 | 0.239 | 0.670 | 1.290 | 3.86 | 0.085 | 95.93 | 63.6% |
| Kelly | 0.311 | 2.84 | 0.306 | 2.13 | 0.263 | 0.732 | 1.240 | 0.59 | 0.077 | 79.67 | 60.7% |
| Gallardo | 0.303 | 4.19 | 0.318 | 3.75 | 0.250 | 0.668 | 1.230 | 3.45 | 0.113 | 100.33 | 61.4% |
| Sanchez | 0.279 | 3.26 | 0.258 | 2.19 | 0.267 | 0.693 | 1.030 | 3.18 | 0.119 | 98.93 | 64.0% |
| Duffy | 0.216 | 1.19 | 0.297 | 3.10 | 0.284 | 0.799 | 1.120 | 2.86 | 0.1 | 70.78 | 63.7% |
| Johnson | 0.258 | 3.18 | 0.388 | 5.00 | 0.277 | 0.780 | 2.310 | 0.00 | -0.046 | 106.00 | 55.7% |
| De La Rosa | 0.226 | 2.62 | 0.350 | 4.41 | 0.245 | 0.680 | 1.310 | 4.75 | 0.068 | 92.33 | 60.0% |
| Samardzija | 0.336 | 4.22 | 0.298 | 3.51 | 0.241 | 0.691 | 1.170 | 2.74 | 0.16 | 99.72 | 65.7% |
| Hernandez | 0.269 | 2.87 | 0.256 | 2.47 | 0.259 | 0.739 | 0.890 | 2.11 | 0.232 | 102.68 | 66.2% |
| Hahn | 0.214 | 2.14 | 0.295 | 2.70 | 0.271 | 0.754 | 1.040 | 2.34 | 0.209 | 92.00 | 63.9% |
| Haren | 0.315 | 5.01 | 0.347 | 3.97 | 0.218 | 0.611 | 1.240 | 4.06 | 0.127 | 100.44 | 64.2% |
| Bolsinger | 0.375 | 5.12 | 0.360 | 5.20 | 0.240 | 0.670 | 1.540 | 5.13 | 0.131 | 85.33 | 66.3% |
| Lincecum | 0.310 | 4.17 | 0.321 | 4.30 | 0.258 | 0.702 | 1.28 | 3.91 | 0.119 | 99.44 | 62.0% |
Starting Pitcher Salaries
Click the image below to view pitcher salaries by each daily fantasy site along with their percent of top statistics.
- Percent of Top (Top) – Player salary divided by the most expensive pitcher each day. So if Felix Hernandez is $9,000 on FanDuel and Justin Verlander is $4,500, Verlanders Top stat would be 50.
NOTE: Button for pitcher salary chart above opens in popup window