Daily Pitcher Breakdown: July 25th
The Daily Pitcher Breakdown goes in-depth to look at nearly every pitching option, with a focus on the best targets for each night. Sometimes there will be a best of the rest section featuring guys who are likely low-dollar options with some upside for those of you who prefer to load your lineup with hitting studs.
There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in White are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ
Daily Pitcher Chart
| Pitcher | TM | OPP | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kelly | STL | CHC | 15.1 | 0.59 | 3.69 | 1.26 | 40.0% | 13.9% | 6.2% | 0.00 | 3.22 |
| Wood | CHC | STL | 104.2 | 4.64 | 4.44 | 1.49 | 30.0% | 18.2% | 9.6% | 0.86 | 0.92 |
| Buehrle | TOR | NYY | 121.1 | 2.60 | 4.47 | 1.25 | 60.0% | 13.9% | 6.2% | 0.67 | 1.18 |
| Kuroda | NYY | TOR | 109.1 | 4.20 | 3.90 | 1.26 | 45.0% | 16.7% | 5.0% | 1.07 | 1.38 |
| Miley | ARI | PHI | 120 | 4.43 | 3.37 | 1.25 | 33.3% | 22.8% | 7.0% | 1.28 | 1.59 |
| Kendrick | PHI | ARI | 115 | 4.46 | 4.46 | 1.37 | 30.0% | 14.1% | 6.6% | 1.10 | 1.26 |
| Roark | WAS | CIN | 106.2 | 3.12 | 3.89 | 1.18 | 52.6% | 18.0% | 5.7% | 0.68 | 1.22 |
| Simon | CIN | WAS | 110 | 2.78 | 4.11 | 1.05 | 63.2% | 15.1% | 5.9% | 1.06 | 1.57 |
| Lester | BOS | TBR | 122 | 2.73 | 3.19 | 1.15 | 65.0% | 24.6% | 5.8% | 0.59 | 1.12 |
| Price | TBR | BOS | 139.2 | 3.48 | 2.61 | 1.09 | 52.4% | 27.9% | 3.5% | 1.22 | 1.05 |
| Hahn | SDP | ATL | 34.2 | 2.34 | 2.86 | 1.05 | 57.1% | 29.5% | 8.6% | 0.52 | 1.86 |
| Wood | ATL | SDP | 80.1 | 3.14 | 3.24 | 1.19 | 58.3% | 23.4% | 6.2% | 1.01 | 1.27 |
| Hammel | OAK | TEX | 108.2 | 2.98 | 3.17 | 1.03 | 47.4% | 24.2% | 5.4% | 0.83 | 1.14 |
| Williams | TEX | OAK | 47.2 | 6.04 | 3.71 | 1.59 | 17.4% | 7.3% | 1.32 | 1.47 | |
| Tomlin | CLE | KCR | 70 | 4.11 | 3.23 | 1.16 | 23.1% | 22.0% | 3.1% | 1.41 | 0.95 |
| Ventura | KCR | CLE | 96.2 | 3.07 | 3.58 | 1.25 | 44.4% | 19.8% | 6.7% | 0.74 | 1.78 |
| Danks | CWS | MIN | 112.2 | 4.15 | 4.63 | 1.38 | 50.0% | 16.1% | 9.0% | 1.12 | 0.91 |
| Correia | MIN | CWS | 103.1 | 4.79 | 4.85 | 1.43 | 45.0% | 10.8% | 5.5% | 0.96 | 1.09 |
| Wheeler | NYM | MIL | 101.2 | 4.07 | 3.66 | 1.38 | 55.0% | 22.9% | 10.2% | 0.62 | 1.96 |
| Gallardo | MIL | NYM | 109.2 | 3.45 | 3.77 | 1.24 | 50.0% | 18.0% | 6.7% | 0.90 | 1.81 |
| Hand | MIA | HOU | 35.1 | 5.09 | 4.72 | 1.74 | 33.3% | 16.3% | 11.5% | 1.02 | 1.00 |
| Keuchel | HOU | MIA | 108.2 | 3.06 | 3.07 | 1.18 | 50.0% | 19.2% | 6.2% | 0.50 | 3.25 |
| Morton | PIT | COL | 113.1 | 3.10 | 3.67 | 1.18 | 50.0% | 19.7% | 8.4% | 0.48 | 2.35 |
| Anderson | COL | PIT | 15 | 3.60 | 4.65 | 1.40 | 20.0% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 0.60 | 2.67 |
| Smyly | DET | LAA | 81 | 3.89 | 4.03 | 1.37 | 50.0% | 19.7% | 7.8% | 1.22 | 0.86 |
| Skaggs | LAA | DET | 91 | 4.15 | 3.81 | 1.23 | 37.5% | 17.6% | 6.7% | 0.69 | 1.80 |
| Gausman | BAL | SEA | 33.1 | 3.51 | 4.44 | 1.33 | 37.5% | 17.3% | 9.4% | 0.27 | 1.20 |
| Hernandez | SEA | BAL | 136.1 | 2.11 | 2.43 | 0.90 | 81.0% | 27.6% | 4.4% | 0.26 | 2.09 |
| Greinke | LAD | SFG | 111.2 | 2.66 | 2.80 | 1.19 | 50.0% | 26.0% | 4.8% | 0.97 | 1.53 |
| Lincecum | SFG | LAD | 106 | 3.91 | 3.85 | 1.28 | 40.0% | 21.4% | 9.4% | 0.93 | 1.55 |
Here is a look at the day’s slate of arms and how they might stack in their given matchups.
If a guy isn’t listed, he’s just kind of a neutral option – I’m not using him, but I’m not stacking against him, either.
GOLD BUYS:
These aren’t just low-cost guys with good matchups and/or venues, but you will also find expensive studs in here with great matchups.
Felix Hernandez SEA (v. BAL) – You may be concerned with Hernandez’s opponent being a division leader, but you can rest assured that it doesn’t concern him. He has a 1.76 ERA, 10.0 K9, and 7-0 record in nine starts against teams at or over .500 in the standings. It’s relative, but the teams with worse records actually do “better” against him with a 2.22 ERA… I told you it was relative. Hernandez has a streak of 12 starts allowing two or fewer earned runs, en route to a 1.37 ERA in those 92 IP. Only Clayton Kershaw has a better ERA since the start of Hernandez’s run (May 18th) with a 1.22 ERA in 81 IP.
Jon Lester BOS (at TB) – If you cut that timespan to start at May 30th, these next two guys enter the fray with the fifth and seventh-best ERAs (Kershaw and Felix are still 1-2). Lester has been putting up arguably the best season of his career and with 142 strikeouts in 137 IP, he’s scoring big in the daily game, too. He has three 12+ K performances, including one against these Rays during which he threw seven scoreless. Good luck counting on a win for Lester with Price on the other side.
David Price TB (v. BOS) – Since that May 30th timeframe, Price 1.64 ERA is just behind Lester’s 1.58, but Price gets the edge back with strikeouts. Price has seven 10+ K games this year included five in a row in June. He’s only allowed earned runs in one of his four July outings. So why is he behind Lester? It comes down to price. He’s going to cost more (justifiably so, I’ll add) and I’m all about value so if I can get an ace-level arm like Lester at a large discount compared to Price, I’m going to lean that way.
Zack Greinke LAD (at SF) – Some of Greinke’s old ways have crept into his game the last couple of months. By that I simply mean his propensity for the blowup has returned. Thankfully they aren’t the 6-7 run nightmares they used to be, but after allowing no more than 3 ER in his first 11 starts, he’s allowed 4+ three times in his last nine starts yielding a 3.70 ERA in 58.3 IP. He still has 54 Ks and a 4.2 K:BB ratio, but the ERA isn’t quite ace-level. There are still going to be several great starts, but his risk factor is back up juuust a little bit after a year-plus of being in that unquestioned top tier in terms of reliability and quality.
Alex Wood ATL (v. SD) – We already know that anyone playing SD will get attention, but it’s even more interesting when they are good pitchers. Wood’s been great upon his return to the rotation with a 2.87 ERA, 27 Ks, and a 3.4 K:BB ratio in 31.3 IP. He had a 1.04 ERA in his two starts at Triple-A this year if you’re trying to gauge how he might do against the Padres. (My hubris will ruin all of us on Friday!)
Tanner Roark WAS (at CIN) – The uncertainty surrounding his role was cleared once Doug Fister was going to start the season on the DL, but Roark still stumbled a bit out of the gate. He had a 4.17 ERA through his first six starts of the season mixing in greatness like his shutout against San Diego with failure like 4 IP/7 ER bomb at Philly in his very next start. But something seems to have clicked since that Philly outing as Roark has run up a 2.36 ERA in his last 13 starts with a 1.07 WHIP and 3.7 K:BB ratio in 84 IP. Meanwhile, this Cincy offense still isn’t scary.
Zack Wheeler NYM (at MIL) – Wheeler has shown the glimpses of greatness throughout the season, but consistency has been an issue. However, he’s on fire in his last four, allowing just 1 ER in each of them totaling a 1.42 ERA with 21 Ks in 25.3 IP. The Brewers have just a .683 OPS against righties as their righty-heavy lineup often faces the platoon disadvantage.
SILVER BUYS:
On some days the slate is so full that there are just tons of worthy options. When that happens, they can’t all be Best Buys, so I’ll split them into Gold and Silver buys. The Silver buys will carry a touch more risk than the Gold ones either because their price isn’t necessarily a value or they have a worthy, but not overwhelming matchup. They aren’t the prime values, but they are useful fallbacks if your budget forces you in a direction you hadn’t originally intended to follow.
Jason Hammel OAK (at TEX) – He hasn’t been sharp in either of his outings with Oakland, but I’m not backing off of him just yet. Going into Texas isn’t quite as terrifying for a pitcher this year given their depleted offense so I like Hammel to have his first big outing with the Athletics.
Wade Miley ARI (at PHI) – Miley isn’t any kind of ace, but his 7 ER in his last April start left him with a 5.36 ERA and it has left his recent work overshadowed. Since May 1st, he has a 3.62 ERA with an impressive 89 Ks in 92 IP. He has some 6 IP/4 ER games in there, but I like his upside at his price, especially with the strikeout surge.
Alfredo Simon CIN (v. WAS) – I know everyone is still waiting for the roof to collapse in on this guy, but he just keeps putting up the numbers. He hasn’t allowed more than 3 ER in any of his last nine with a 2.56 ERA and 3.7 K:BB ratio in 59.7 IP. The Washington offense is clicking of late, so I don’t love Simon here, but if I were backed into using him to make budget work for other guys I really liked, then I’d have no real issue with it.
Hiroki Kuroda NYY (v. TOR) – You had to believe that Kuroda would eventually work his way back to his level. That mid-to-high 4.00s ERA he carried through two months came with skills that said he should be about a run lower and after a 3.10 ERA in his last two months, he’s almost there. Toronto’s injury-addled offense isn’t quite as threatening as it was back in May.
VALUE PLAYS:
These are guys aren’t inherently good buys, but they have a nice matchup and they’re likely to be very cheap so you can save with them and take the gamble that they come through with a strong effort.
Yovani Gallardo MIL (v. NYM) – His K:BB ratio is at a three-year high despite his strikeouts hitting a three-year low. He’s walking fewer than ever and it has mitigated some of the damage of that 1.1 HR/9 rate. He’s often a neutral play that I’m apt to leave alone, but with this matchup he’s worth a shot.
John Danks CWS (at MIN) – Danks has a 3.41 ERA over his last 11 starts and it’s only that high because of 6 and 7 ER outings that make up 48% of the runs he’s allowed in that span. Despite a 10-spot here and eight punchouts there, he hasn’t been much of a strikeout force this year, but if I can get 6-7 strong innings from an SP2 but only three or four strikeouts, I’ll take it. His bust potential is substantial with four 6+ ER outings, but he has 10 of two or fewer earned runs, too, and I like that kind of upside in a value play.
Charlie Morton PIT (at COL) – Wanna get really gutsy? Does anyone pitching in Colorado ever get selected? If anyone’s profile can succeed there, it’s Morton’s. He’s got a 55% groundball rate (which peaked at 63% just last year) and he’s missing bats at a career-best 19.6% clip, too.
Kevin Gausman BAL (at SEA) – Speaking of boom/bust potential… Gausman has allowed 5 ER in three of his outings and then a total of four in his other five combined. He hasn’t really had an easy opponent yet, either… until now. The Mariners .681 OPS is 23rd in baseball and easily the worst that Gausman has faced (second-worst was NYY at .687). He doesn’t really go deep into games with regularity yet, but he’s cheap enough to make that not really matter. If he just gives five strong, he’ll easy earn his price back.
STAYAWAYS:
These guys should just be avoided either because of their matchup, talent-level, or both. These guys are often the ones you’ll want to stack against if you use that method.
- Tim Lincecum SF (v. LAD)
- Tyler Skaggs LAA (v. DET)
- Brad Hand MIA (at HOU)
- Brett Anderson COL (v. PIT)
Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against
| Pitcher | wOBA vs L | ERA vs L | wOBA vs R | ERA vs R | AVG | OPS | BABIP | FIP | AVG-A | Pit/G | Strk% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kelly | 0.317 | 3.14 | 0.306 | 2.38 | 0.230 | 0.652 | 1.240 | 2.92 | 0.077 | 79.67 | 60.7% |
| Wood | 0.264 | 3.35 | 0.322 | 4.04 | 0.250 | 0.703 | 1.480 | 4.20 | 0.086 | 99.39 | 62.9% |
| Buehrle | 0.324 | 4.15 | 0.325 | 3.52 | 0.260 | 0.694 | 1.240 | 3.74 | 0.078 | 102.06 | 63.5% |
| Kuroda | 0.318 | 3.82 | 0.281 | 3.22 | 0.266 | 0.768 | 1.260 | 3.94 | 0.117 | 97.67 | 62.5% |
| Miley | 0.318 | 4.45 | 0.320 | 3.70 | 0.244 | 0.694 | 1.250 | 3.98 | 0.158 | 99.21 | 65.0% |
| Kendrick | 0.334 | 4.50 | 0.332 | 5.02 | 0.258 | 0.702 | 1.370 | 4.43 | 0.075 | 100.56 | 63.3% |
| Roark | 0.282 | 3.56 | 0.246 | 1.57 | 0.250 | 0.688 | 1.170 | 3.42 | 0.123 | 95.53 | 65.3% |
| Simon | 0.306 | 3.34 | 0.264 | 2.36 | 0.234 | 0.670 | 1.050 | 4.36 | 0.092 | 93.65 | 65.8% |
| Lester | 0.294 | 3.16 | 0.302 | 3.32 | 0.261 | 0.728 | 1.150 | 2.75 | 0.187 | 109.83 | 64.3% |
| Price | 0.260 | 3.11 | 0.296 | 3.29 | 0.248 | 0.694 | 1.090 | 3.12 | 0.244 | 110.84 | 69.7% |
| Hahn | 0.215 | 1.99 | 0.276 | 2.55 | 0.240 | 0.660 | 1.040 | 2.71 | 0.209 | 92.00 | 63.9% |
| Wood | 0.301 | 3.24 | 0.297 | 3.22 | 0.194 | 0.563 | 1.180 | 3.46 | 0.172 | 58.86 | 65.9% |
| Hammel | 0.357 | 5.14 | 0.300 | 3.45 | 0.256 | 0.690 | 1.020 | 3.17 | 0.189 | 99.94 | 63.9% |
| Williams | 0.358 | 5.15 | 0.331 | 4.75 | 0.259 | 0.739 | 1.570 | 4.63 | 0.101 | 31.46 | 66.0% |
| Tomlin | 0.281 | 3.47 | 0.363 | 5.40 | 0.267 | 0.693 | 1.160 | 3.72 | 0.189 | 96.08 | 67.0% |
| Ventura | 0.295 | 3.39 | 0.339 | 3.94 | 0.259 | 0.739 | 1.240 | 3.41 | 0.131 | 95.13 | 64.8% |
| Danks | 0.340 | 4.30 | 0.346 | 4.70 | 0.253 | 0.697 | 1.380 | 4.66 | 0.071 | 105.94 | 62.6% |
| Correia | 0.352 | 4.48 | 0.342 | 4.37 | 0.253 | 0.719 | 1.420 | 4.36 | 0.053 | 93.72 | 61.4% |
| Wheeler | 0.350 | 4.91 | 0.282 | 2.69 | 0.263 | 0.732 | 1.380 | 3.48 | 0.127 | 99.28 | 61.3% |
| Gallardo | 0.309 | 4.35 | 0.322 | 3.84 | 0.237 | 0.671 | 1.230 | 3.86 | 0.113 | 100.33 | 61.4% |
| Hand | 0.289 | 3.18 | 0.349 | 4.70 | 0.276 | 0.772 | 1.730 | 4.67 | 0.048 | 36.17 | 60.4% |
| Keuchel | 0.313 | 4.06 | 0.344 | 4.46 | 0.259 | 0.699 | 1.180 | 3.14 | 0.13 | 101.88 | 63.6% |
| Morton | 0.335 | 4.21 | 0.276 | 2.61 | 0.280 | 0.775 | 1.180 | 3.63 | 0.113 | 99.17 | 63.6% |
| Anderson | 0.324 | 4.34 | 0.353 | 5.60 | 0.248 | 0.670 | 1.400 | 4.32 | 0 | 71.00 | 64.8% |
| Smyly | 0.202 | 1.91 | 0.357 | 4.03 | 0.282 | 0.799 | 1.370 | 4.24 | 0.119 | 86.88 | 64.8% |
| Skaggs | 0.332 | 4.91 | 0.312 | 4.84 | 0.286 | 0.794 | 1.230 | 3.59 | 0.109 | 94.79 | 66.2% |
| Gausman | 0.338 | 5.73 | 0.323 | 3.98 | 0.241 | 0.691 | 1.320 | 3.33 | 0.079 | 100.00 | 61.0% |
| Hernandez | 0.270 | 2.84 | 0.252 | 2.35 | 0.269 | 0.742 | 0.890 | 1.94 | 0.232 | 102.68 | 66.2% |
| Greinke | 0.319 | 2.90 | 0.274 | 2.64 | 0.240 | 0.670 | 1.180 | 3.03 | 0.212 | 99.89 | 65.7% |
| Lincecum | 0.304 | 3.98 | 0.321 | 4.29 | 0.271 | 0.754 | 1.28 | 3.92 | 0.119 | 99.44 | 62.0% |
Starting Pitcher Salaries
Click the image below to view pitcher salaries by each daily fantasy site along with their percent of top statistics.
- Percent of Top (Top) – Player salary divided by the most expensive pitcher each day. So if Felix Hernandez is $9,000 on FanDuel and Justin Verlander is $4,500, Verlanders Top stat would be 50.
NOTE: Button for pitcher salary chart above opens in popup window