Daily Pitcher Breakdown: July 2nd
The Daily Pitcher Breakdown goes in-depth to look at nearly every pitching option, with a focus on the best targets for each night. Sometimes there will be a best of the rest section featuring guys who are likely low-dollar options with some upside for those of you who prefer to load your lineup with hitting studs.
There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in White are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ
Daily Pitcher Chart
| Pitcher | TM | OPP | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peralta | MIL | TOR | 101.1 | 3.20 | 3.60 | 1.26 | 61.5% | 18.0% | 5.9% | 1.07 | 1.85 |
| Happ | TOR | MIL | 65 | 4.29 | 4.26 | 1.54 | 25.0% | 19.9% | 10.5% | 1.25 | 1.10 |
| Odorizzi | TBR | NYY | 82.2 | 4.14 | 3.37 | 1.34 | 30.8% | 27.2% | 9.5% | 0.76 | 0.84 |
| Nuno | NYY | TBR | 73 | 5.42 | 4.28 | 1.40 | 20.0% | 17.5% | 7.6% | 1.85 | 0.97 |
| Chavez | OAK | DET | 98 | 2.94 | 3.58 | 1.21 | 53.8% | 21.3% | 6.9% | 0.83 | 1.31 |
| Verlander | DET | OAK | 110.2 | 4.80 | 4.38 | 1.50 | 35.7% | 17.4% | 8.8% | 0.73 | 1.02 |
| Vargas | KCR | MIN | 112.1 | 3.53 | 4.18 | 1.25 | 71.4% | 15.8% | 5.3% | 1.12 | 1.03 |
| Correia | MIN | KCR | 90.1 | 5.08 | 4.72 | 1.45 | 30.8% | 11.4% | 5.1% | 0.90 | 1.05 |
| Young | SEA | HOU | 91.1 | 3.15 | 5.68 | 1.16 | 41.7% | 12.6% | 9.4% | 1.18 | 0.43 |
| Peacock | HOU | SEA | 72.2 | 4.21 | 4.54 | 1.52 | 33.3% | 19.9% | 12.6% | 0.99 | 1.15 |
| Bauer | CLE | LAD | 53.1 | 4.39 | 3.83 | 1.47 | 50.0% | 22.5% | 8.7% | 1.52 | 0.96 |
| Ryu | LAD | CLE | 89.1 | 3.12 | 3.60 | 1.21 | 58.3% | 19.6% | 5.1% | 0.60 | 1.28 |
| Cueto | CIN | SDP | 124.1 | 1.88 | 2.93 | 0.83 | 85.7% | 25.5% | 6.1% | 0.65 | 1.64 |
| Ross | SDP | CIN | 107.2 | 3.18 | 3.36 | 1.28 | 57.1% | 22.6% | 9.3% | 0.75 | 2.60 |
| Matzek | COL | WAS | 23.1 | 4.24 | 4.68 | 1.43 | 100.0% | 12.0% | 6.0% | 0.39 | 1.21 |
| Fister | WAS | COL | 63.2 | 2.83 | 3.94 | 1.06 | 71.4% | 14.3% | 2.3% | 1.13 | 1.34 |
| Mikolas | TEX | BAL | |||||||||
| Tillman | BAL | TEX | 99 | 4.18 | 4.87 | 1.39 | 35.7% | 14.3% | 9.2% | 1.00 | 0.99 |
| Anderson | ARI | PIT | 44.2 | 3.63 | 4.11 | 1.27 | 40.0% | 18.2% | 7.5% | 1.61 | 1.16 |
| Morton | PIT | ARI | 100.1 | 3.41 | 3.68 | 1.23 | 38.5% | 19.6% | 8.2% | 0.54 | 2.44 |
| Hamels | PHI | MIA | 88.2 | 2.84 | 3.25 | 1.19 | 60.0% | 25.2% | 8.0% | 0.71 | 1.51 |
| Koehler | MIA | PHI | 97.1 | 3.70 | 4.29 | 1.23 | 53.8% | 18.5% | 9.4% | 0.83 | 1.24 |
| Degrom | NYM | ATL | 54.2 | 3.62 | 4.29 | 1.40 | 33.3% | 19.5% | 10.4% | 0.82 | 1.07 |
| Teheran | ATL | NYM | 119 | 2.34 | 3.44 | 0.95 | 78.6% | 22.2% | 5.0% | 0.83 | 0.87 |
| Wood | CHC | BOS | 95.2 | 4.52 | 4.38 | 1.41 | 38.5% | 18.4% | 9.3% | 0.85 | 0.89 |
| Workman | BOS | CHC | 41.1 | 3.27 | 3.99 | 1.07 | 25.0% | 19.8% | 8.4% | 0.87 | 1.15 |
| Skaggs | LAA | CWS | 76.2 | 4.34 | 3.85 | 1.25 | 41.7% | 18.2% | 7.5% | 0.70 | 1.80 |
| Danks | CWS | LAA | 99.1 | 4.26 | 4.77 | 1.36 | 46.2% | 15.1% | 9.1% | 1.09 | 0.87 |
| Wainwright | STL | SFG | 116.1 | 2.01 | 3.14 | 0.90 | 78.6% | 23.5% | 4.9% | 0.31 | 1.27 |
| Vogelsong | SFG | STL | 91 | 3.96 | 3.92 | 1.32 | 53.8% | 20.3% | 7.5% | 0.69 | 0.96 |
Here is a look at the day’s slate of arms and how they might stack in their given matchups.
If a guy isn’t listed, he’s just kind of a neutral option – I’m not using him, but I’m not stacking against him, either.
BEST BUYS:
These aren’t just low-cost guys with good matchups and/or venues, but you will also find expensive studs in here with great matchups.
Adam Wainwright STL (at SF) – “But Paul, they ripped him for 7 ER last time they saw him.” Sure, and then he allowed 4 ER in his next four starts, going 31 IP with a 24/5 K:BB ratio. Wainwright’s track record has definitely earned him the right to a bad day. Were you concerned with Kershaw against Arizona a few weeks after they ripped him for 7 ER in 1.7 IP? No, of course not. And he rewarded you with a 7 IP/1 ER gem which was hilariously his worst outing in June if you go by GameScore. If you’re willing to pay the premium, you should comfortably roster Waino.
Julio Teheran ATL (v. NYM) – It’s become a bit of a tired refrain, but only because of Teheran’s elite performance – he is awesome and getting better. The ERA has been there all year, but the component numbers were a bit soft in April, particularly the strikeouts with just 26 in 43 IP. The ERA has gone up from April’s 1.47, but it’s still quite healthy at 2.84 in the last two months with 77 strikeouts in 76 IP. Good luck, Mets.
Cole Hamels PHI (at MIA) – Remember when Hamels’ ERA was 4.43? Funny what can happen in a month, especially when he only had seven starts on his ledger through May because of an injury that delayed the start of his season until April 23rd. In six June starts, he posted a 1.23 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, and 3.4 K:BB ratio with 47 strikeouts in 44 IP (he went 7+ IP in each of the outings). Stretch it back to early-May and Hamels has a 1.88 ERA in 72 IP with a 3.5 K:BB ratio and 77 Ks.
Doug Fister WAS (v. COL) – Fister had a terrific 2.38 ERA in five June starts, but just 14 Ks in 34 IP. Of course with four walks in that same time (and just six in 10 starts all year), you can definitely lengthen your margin for error even if you’re not missing bats. The Rockies are much tamer on the road with the 20th wOBA against righties (1st at home… and by a lot) and while he’s not my first choice with the diminished strikeout totals, I’m still buying in Fister overall. He makes a solid second starter and I believe the upside is there for his strikeout and groundball rates to return to last year’s levels which would allow him to produce first level starter numbers at second starter prices.
Ryan Vogelsong SF (v. STL) – Vogelsong spent April and May vacillating between great and mediocre (with one awful start thrown in), but then he spent most of June in that mediocre range with quality bookends. That’s the life of a mid-to-high 3.00s ERA pitcher. He’ll give you some gems, he’ll give you some duds, but the bulk of his starts will be in that mediocre band ranging from a baseline quality start (6 IP/3 ER) to something like 5 IP/4 ER. The Cardinals threatened to breakout at points in June, but by the end of it, they were terrible against righties against with the 26th wOBA against righties at .282 lowering them to .300 on the season – good for 21st.
VALUE PLAYS:
These are guys aren’t inherently good buys, but they have a nice matchup and they’re likely to be very cheap so you can save with them and take the gamble that they come through with a strong effort.
Tyler Skaggs LAA (at CWS) – Skaggs got off to a strong start in April with a 3.34 ERA that was mostly supported by his component numbers with a 3.81 FIP, but then he spent May and his one start in June going guardrail-to-guardrail: 6, 2, 5, 1, 2, 4, and 4 were his ER counts yielding a 5.18 ERA in 41.7 IP despite skills befitting something much lower, especially in May. The White Sox have been brutal against lefties this year creating a nice buying opportunity for Skaggs at a point when he’s likely to be lightly used as many are reticent to jump on a guy their first off the DL.
Charlie Morton PIT (v. ARI) – Morton wrapped up an impressive June with a tremendous outing in Tampa Bay. He ended the month with a 3.66 ERA thanks in large part to a 6 ER outing in Wrigley Field because the other four outings saw him allow 2 or fewer ER while going 7, 7, 7, and 5 IP. The 39/9 K:BB ratio in 32 IP for the month was the most impressive aspect of his month as he’s never been seen as a strikeout pitcher. I wouldn’t bet on the strikeouts being real just yet, but it’s a nice potential bonus if they are. He’s a viable value play even without the punchouts because of his elite groundball rate and his ability to keep the ball in the yard.
Brandon Workman BOS (v. CHC) – A rough fourth inning tarnished Workman’s return to the mound after 11 days off as he went 7 IP/4 ER in the Bronx with three of the runs coming in that fourth. He doesn’t miss a ton of bats or do an elite job preventing walks, but he’s adequate in both with the potential to improve the strikeouts or at least have intermittent big strikeout games. The Cubs aren’t quite the Padres offensively, but they are still very bad. Just don’t let Anthony Rizzo beat you, Brandon.
Tom Koehler MIA (v. PHI) – I’m on the fence with Koehler. His 3.70 ERA is nice, but the 1.97 K:BB ratio (OK, it rounds up to 2.0) is unimpressive. And then in June, he flipped. He had a 4.91 ERA in 29.3 IP, but fanned 30 with a 3.0 K:BB ratio. The ERA damage was done early in the month, too, as he has allowed 2 ER in each of his last two over 7 and 6 IP, respectively. Their .286 wOBA against righties (28th in the league) says they’re ripe for the picking again.
STAYAWAYS:
These guys should just be avoided either because of their matchup, talent-level, or both. These guys are often the ones you’ll want to stack against if you use that method.
- Tyler Matzek COL (at WAS)
- Nick Tepesch TEX (at BAL)
- Chris Tillman BAL (v. TEX)
Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against
| Pitcher | wOBA vs L | ERA vs L | wOBA vs R | ERA vs R | AVG | OPS | BABIP | FIP | AVG-A | Pit/G | Strk% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peralta | 0.334 | 3.94 | 0.302 | 3.97 | 0.263 | 0.766 | 1.250 | 3.20 | 0.121 | 86.56 | 63.9% |
| Happ | 0.350 | 4.66 | 0.333 | 4.22 | 0.238 | 0.698 | 1.540 | 4.29 | 0.094 | 66.71 | 64.6% |
| Odorizzi | 0.336 | 4.58 | 0.300 | 4.53 | 0.247 | 0.684 | 1.330 | 4.14 | 0.177 | 83.63 | 63.1% |
| Nuno | 0.352 | 6.75 | 0.345 | 4.59 | 0.239 | 0.673 | 1.400 | 5.42 | 0.098 | 63.38 | 64.7% |
| Chavez | 0.314 | 3.49 | 0.258 | 3.16 | 0.276 | 0.765 | 1.210 | 2.94 | 0.144 | 85.06 | 67.7% |
| Verlander | 0.301 | 3.42 | 0.347 | 4.76 | 0.256 | 0.754 | 1.490 | 4.80 | 0.086 | 98.47 | 62.3% |
| Vargas | 0.331 | 3.18 | 0.324 | 3.95 | 0.240 | 0.671 | 1.250 | 3.53 | 0.105 | 92.35 | 64.1% |
| Correia | 0.351 | 4.64 | 0.348 | 4.43 | 0.268 | 0.695 | 1.450 | 5.08 | 0.063 | 79.44 | 61.9% |
| Young | 0.297 | 2.82 | 0.315 | 4.28 | 0.229 | 0.681 | 1.160 | 3.15 | 0.032 | 79.69 | 61.4% |
| Peacock | 0.362 | 5.74 | 0.304 | 3.93 | 0.234 | 0.678 | 1.510 | 4.21 | 0.073 | 75.73 | 61.1% |
| Bauer | 0.345 | 3.52 | 0.342 | 5.35 | 0.270 | 0.760 | 1.460 | 4.39 | 0.139 | 78.67 | 63.6% |
| Ryu | 0.327 | 3.52 | 0.283 | 2.92 | 0.241 | 0.648 | 1.210 | 3.12 | 0.145 | 83.47 | 65.7% |
| Cueto | 0.233 | 1.85 | 0.254 | 2.59 | 0.218 | 0.616 | 0.830 | 1.88 | 0.195 | 95.47 | 64.4% |
| Ross | 0.304 | 3.61 | 0.285 | 2.85 | 0.248 | 0.687 | 1.270 | 3.18 | 0.133 | 87.53 | 61.2% |
| Matzek | 0.345 | 5.40 | 0.296 | 3.24 | 0.284 | 0.754 | 1.410 | 4.24 | 0.06 | 43.25 | 69.4% |
| Fister | 0.312 | 3.88 | 0.318 | 3.19 | 0.280 | 0.783 | 1.050 | 2.83 | 0.12 | 76.60 | 66.4% |
| Mikolas | 0.230 | 0.181 | 0.263 | 0.723 | |||||||
| Tillman | 0.336 | 4.35 | 0.314 | 3.71 | 0.257 | 0.689 | 1.390 | 4.18 | 0.051 | 86.35 | 63.0% |
| Anderson | 0.201 | 2.76 | 0.438 | 3.63 | 0.258 | 0.715 | 1.250 | 3.63 | 0.107 | 69.50 | 62.8% |
| Morton | 0.333 | 4.22 | 0.282 | 2.45 | 0.257 | 0.706 | 1.230 | 3.41 | 0.114 | 87.38 | 63.5% |
| Hamels | 0.309 | 4.68 | 0.303 | 3.08 | 0.272 | 0.720 | 1.180 | 2.84 | 0.172 | 89.38 | 65.0% |
| Koehler | 0.294 | 4.14 | 0.350 | 4.34 | 0.234 | 0.653 | 1.220 | 3.70 | 0.091 | 82.75 | 61.6% |
| Degrom | 0.354 | 5.60 | 0.341 | 3.57 | 0.238 | 0.659 | 1.390 | 3.62 | 0.091 | 77.56 | 62.0% |
| Teheran | 0.315 | 3.61 | 0.268 | 2.29 | 0.224 | 0.646 | 0.950 | 2.34 | 0.172 | 86.41 | 66.6% |
| Wood | 0.250 | 2.70 | 0.312 | 3.80 | 0.248 | 0.700 | 1.400 | 4.52 | 0.091 | 86.88 | 64.3% |
| Workman | 0.290 | 4.46 | 0.304 | 3.58 | 0.223 | 0.640 | 1.060 | 3.27 | 0.114 | 57.67 | 63.4% |
| Skaggs | 0.342 | 4.76 | 0.307 | 4.63 | 0.240 | 0.668 | 1.240 | 4.34 | 0.107 | 94.67 | 64.6% |
| Danks | 0.337 | 4.21 | 0.337 | 4.58 | 0.264 | 0.763 | 1.360 | 4.26 | 0.06 | 92.13 | 62.1% |
| Wainwright | 0.276 | 3.21 | 0.264 | 2.25 | 0.253 | 0.708 | 0.900 | 2.01 | 0.186 | 89.19 | 67.1% |
| Vogelsong | 0.338 | 4.54 | 0.370 | 5.36 | 0.259 | 0.692 | 1.32 | 3.96 | 0.127 | 83.38 | 61.5% |
Starting Pitcher Salaries
Click the image below to view pitcher salaries by each daily fantasy site along with their percent of top statistics.
- Percent of Top (Top) – Player salary divided by the most expensive pitcher each day. So if Felix Hernandez is $9,000 on FanDuel and Justin Verlander is $4,500, Verlanders Top stat would be 50.
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