Daily Pitcher Breakdown: July 31st, 2013
Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown. I will focus on the top selections of the day and give you a breakdown on why they are set up for success against their given opponent. Sometimes there will be a best of the rest section featuring guys who are likely low-dollar options with some upside for those of you who prefer to load your lineup with hitting studs.
There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in White are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ
Performance and Talent Statistics: July 31st, 2013
| PLAYER | PERFORMANCE | TALENT | |||||||||
| PITCHER | TM | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quintana | CWS | 126.2 | 3.55 | 4.05 | 1.21 | 33.3% | 18.7% | 7.0% | 0.99 | 1.19 | |
| Kluber | CLE | 106.0 | 3.74 | 3.17 | 1.24 | 35.3% | 23.7% | 5.7% | 1.02 | 1.70 | |
| Gaudin | SFG | 74.2 | 2.77 | 3.96 | 1.18 | 50.0% | 20.8% | 9.1% | 0.48 | 1.01 | |
| Kendrick | PHI | 136.1 | 3.96 | 4.27 | 1.28 | 57.1% | 14.1% | 5.7% | 0.86 | 1.60 | |
| Bedard | HOU | 103.0 | 4.28 | 4.45 | 1.45 | 31.6% | 21.3% | 11.6% | 1.22 | 0.75 | |
| Gonzalez | BAL | 112.1 | 3.69 | 4.40 | 1.22 | 44.4% | 17.1% | 7.6% | 1.12 | 0.97 | |
| Wainwright | STL | 161.2 | 2.51 | 2.90 | 1.03 | 59.1% | 22.9% | 2.8% | 0.39 | 1.89 | |
| Locke | PIT | 121.2 | 2.15 | 4.53 | 1.17 | 55.0% | 18.0% | 11.6% | 0.52 | 1.82 | |
| Miley | ARI | 128.1 | 3.86 | 4.08 | 1.36 | 42.9% | 17.3% | 7.8% | 1.12 | 1.81 | |
| Hellickson | TBR | 128.2 | 4.48 | 3.86 | 1.20 | 42.9% | 19.7% | 5.9% | 1.12 | 1.06 | |
| Chatwood | COL | 83.1 | 2.48 | 3.76 | 1.30 | 64.3% | 17.2% | 7.9% | 0.32 | 2.81 | |
| Minor | ATL | 137.0 | 2.89 | 3.43 | 1.04 | 61.9% | 23.5% | 5.1% | 0.99 | 0.79 | |
| Mejia | NYM | 7.0 | 0.00 | 1.02 | 1.00 | 100.0% | 25.9% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 14.00 | |
| Alvarez | MIA | 30.2 | 2.64 | 4.45 | 1.21 | 60.0% | 13.0% | 6.5% | 0.00 | 1.95 | |
| Iwakuma | SEA | 144.1 | 2.87 | 3.18 | 0.95 | 59.1% | 22.9% | 3.9% | 1.31 | 1.31 | |
| Lackey | BOS | 113.0 | 3.19 | 3.37 | 1.19 | 61.1% | 21.7% | 5.1% | 1.35 | 1.52 | |
| Williams | LAA | 102.0 | 4.85 | 4.46 | 1.40 | 50.0% | 14.5% | 7.7% | 1.32 | 1.41 | |
| Perez | TEX | 45.1 | 4.37 | 4.24 | 1.50 | 37.5% | 13.8% | 6.4% | 1.19 | 2.00 | |
| Peralta | MIL | 125.0 | 4.54 | 4.46 | 1.46 | 36.4% | 14.3% | 9.1% | 0.79 | 2.17 | |
| Jackson | CHC | 114.0 | 4.89 | 3.79 | 1.38 | 25.0% | 19.4% | 8.0% | 0.71 | 2.04 | |
| Guthrie | KCR | 132.2 | 4.27 | 5.01 | 1.40 | 52.4% | 12.1% | 8.1% | 1.49 | 1.22 | |
| Correia | MIN | 118.1 | 4.56 | 4.52 | 1.41 | 35.0% | 12.8% | 5.5% | 1.45 | 1.39 | |
| Kuroda | NYY | 132.2 | 2.51 | 3.89 | 1.04 | 61.9% | 17.2% | 4.9% | 0.81 | 1.44 | |
| Kershaw | LAD | 160.1 | 1.96 | 3.10 | 0.87 | 68.2% | 25.5% | 5.7% | 0.51 | 1.34 | |
STARTING PITCHER BREAKDOWN
Here is a look at the day’s slate of arms and how they might stack in their given matchups.
BEST BUYS:
These aren’t just low-cost guys with good matchups and/or venues, but you will also find expensive studs in here with great matchups. An ace facing another ace won’t find his way in here because the win probability for both is sliced significantly by facing each other.
Clayton Kershaw, LAD (v. NYY) – Duh.
Corey Kluber, CLE (v. CWS) – I’m impressed that in 10 games against the Sox this year, Kluber has somehow missed them entirely. Since a pummeling in Detroit back on May 10th, Kluber has a 3.23 ERA and 1.16 WHIP in 83.7 IP with 84 strikeouts. The Sox are 24th in wOBA against righties this year.
Adam Wainwright, STL (at PIT) – When they talk about “stoppers”, this is what they mean. The ace starter is up on the heels of a six-game losing streak including a doubleheader sweep on Tuesday and the loss of first place in that DH. They need him badly as they’ve already lost the five-game series by losing the first three and want to salvage something. Waino’s gone 6+ IP in 21 of 22 starts, allowing more than 4 ER just once. This is his first crack at the Pirates, but they are far from special offensively with a .301 wOBA vs. righties.
Jeremy Hellickson, TB (v. ARI) – Hellickson has a 2.09 ERA in his last seven outings as his command-and-control look as sharp as ever and it hasn’t cost him any of the strikeout rate he was displaying earlier this year when the results were poor. The D’Backs are a middling offense on the whole with a .307 wOBA v. righties for the year, but they’ve been much worse in July with a .287 mark.
Mike Minor, ATL (v. COL) – This is one is easy. Minor is having a brilliant season (including a 0.94 WHIP and 7.8 K/BB at home) and he’s facing a terrible team. The Rockies are 25th on the road against lefties in wOBA with a .286 mark.
Miguel Gonzalez, BAL (v. HOU) – Gonzalez had a 2.35 ERA and 1.04 WHIP in eight starts spanning 53.7 IP (6.7 IP avg.) with a 6-1 record heading into his start at KC on July 25th. So of course he gets his head caved in for 6 ER in 4.7 IP against the bottom-feeding offense because why not???? Undeterred, I still think he’s a great option today against the even more-lowly Astros. While not a strikeout stud consistently (17%), he has big games of 9, 7, and 7 this year. Houston offers the chance to match or exceed that season high.
Kyle Kendrick, PHI (v. SF) – When you consider Kendrick’s strong 57% Gem Rate and stack it against his 3.96 ERA, it becomes obvious that his bad starts are especially awful. He’s allowed three or fewer runs in 14 of his 21 starts, but five or more in five while going fewer than six innings all five of those. Two of those stinkers have come in July, too. And yet, he’s still an enticing buy because he’s cheap and facing a bad offense in the Giants. They are 25th on the road in wOBA with a paltry .294 mark.
Chad Gaudin, SF (at PHI) – Just went I bought in on this clown he goes out and gets pasted for six runs on seven hits and five walks in just 3.7 IP at home against the Reds. He’d walked five in his previous 19 innings. Considering the fact that he’s a 30-year old journeyman hybrid starter-reliever, I was already skeptical and now I’m a little more gun-shy about him based on that disaster than I would be with a normal starter. That said, the skills are still strong and the Phillies are decidedly mediocre with a league average wOBA at home (.316 compared to .318 lg avg) so he’s still someone to seriously look at given the minuscule price.
GOOD BUYS:
This is where a lot of the high-priced big arms with decent or worse matchups will reside. Any top arm can thwart even the toughest lineup, but it’s not always the most sensible buy when they are among the most costly arms on the board. This is also where the ace v. ace matchups will be as they still have the potential for a big score, but just lack the high probability of the ever-important win.
Tyler Chatwood, COL (at ATL) – Chatwood has been a total revelation this year and while he does his best work on the road, he’s been excellent in his last two at home allowing 3 ER in 13 IP of work. Plus he struck out 11 Brewers in his most recent outing topping his previous season-high of 10. Now strikeouts aren’t usually part of his game as evidenced by the fact that he’s still only at 17% despite those two huge games. He’s become someone you can trust home and away against just about any team. What he lacks in strikeouts he makes up for with an elite groundball rate that mitigates damage. I like him even against the Braves and their ninth-ranked wOBA (.322).
Hiroki Kuroda, NYY (at LAD) – Kuroda returns to his first MLB home to face the Dodgers. He has a 3.43 ERA and 1.16 WHIP in 360 IP in Dodger Stadium with a 3.5 K/BB ratio. The Dodgers offense is on fire with the third-best wOBA against righties this month which has them up to 13th overall. That said, Kuroda is one of the most underrated arms in the game so he shouldn’t be ignored. He has a 0.69 ERA in 26 IP this month. The only downside is actually a major one: he’s facing Kershaw. That decimates his win probability. Play somewhere where wins aren’t so heavily valued? Kuroda’s your man.
Jose Quintana, CWS (at CLE) – On the one hand, the Indians hit lefties well with a wOBA that ranks third in the league for both the season and the month, but Q has a 3.00 ERA against them this year in three starts going 18 innings and posting a 0.83 WHIP as well. Additionally, he has a 2.41 ERA in five July starts going at least six innings in all but one (5.7 IP/1 ER v. ATL).
Erik Bedard, HOU (at BAL) – Bedard has been particularly sharp in his last three with a 2.20 ERA and 22 Ks in 16.3 IP, but of course he’s 0-3. A lot of folks run from Baltimore as a general rule, but their .297 wOBA against lefties is 25th in the league and it’s down to .270 in July. Throw in the fact that he’s dirt-cheap and you’ve got yourself a nice secondary option here. I don’t like to mess with Astros as my top guy because it’s so hard to get a win, but at sites using multiple pitchers, he’s sometime to consider.
Jenrry Mejia, NYM (at MIA) – He had an incredible outing in his 2013 MLB debut going seven shutout innings, scattering seven hits, and fanning seven while not walking anyone. It’s hard to know what to make of him going forward as one outing certainly isn’t predictive, but a second start in Miami against the Marlins is a pretty nice setup to follow that sparkling debut.
Wily Peralta, MIL (at CHC) – There’s a pretty firm standing rule here that I don’t destroy someone for getting trounced in Coors. Peralta does have three starts against the Cubs this year with a 3.44 ERA and 1.36 WHIP, but just a 12% K rate and 1.7 K/BB ratio. His skills were better in his six-start run before Coors (20% K, 2.0 K/BB), but not special enough to merit an 0.87 ERA. He’s fine, but I wouldn’t trust him as my only guy.
Edwin Jackson, CHC (v. MIL) – Unlike Peralta, E-Jax has the component skills that merit success, but his results haven’t been there this year on the whole. Although he has been sharp of late with a 2.51 ERA in his last five starts along with a 0.93 WHIP, 19% K rate, and 3.4 K/BB ratio over 32.3 IP. He has two bad and one good start against the Brewers this year and I didn’t see any of them so I can’t comment on the nature of how things went. The talent is there, but he has a career worth of inconsistency that still makes it hard to fully trust him. Secondary option only like Peralta.
USE CAUTION:
Hisashi Iwakuma, SEA (at BOS) / John Lackey, BOS (v. SEA) – Two studs squaring off, though both facing strong offenses (Seattle leading baseball in wOBA this month at .370, it’s vaulted them from 21st to 12th on the season) really cuts in the usefulness of both or either. While it’s not hard to envision a 1-0 game, the likelihood of it isn’t particularly high so there is just too much risk to mess with the high priced options. Even though it’s stud v. stud, I dropped it to the caution rung because of the offenses.
Jeff Locke, PIT (v. STL) – Despite component stats to the contrary, Locke continues to roll. He still hasn’t allowed more than three earned since mid-April and he has a 2.49 ERA in four July starts totaling 25.3 IP, but I keep coming back to the 1.38 WHIP boosted heavily by a 15% BB rate. He does have a 7 IP/0 ER gem in St. Louis back in late April so he’s unlikely to be intimidated by them, but how long can baseball’s best offense really stay this far down? They’ve scored ONE RUN PER GAME in their six game losing streak.
Wade Miley, ARI (at TB) – Miley has actually been great the last two months with a 2.69 ERA in 63.7 IP, but he has to face baseball’s toughest team against lefties (.342 wOBA) in their home park. Plus his 1.33 WHIP in the last two months takes a little bit of air out of that gaudy ERA. I’m cautious less because I think he will implode and more because there just isn’t any upside even at a good price. Too many better options.
Henderson Alvarez, MIA (v. NYM) – I’m not really sold on Alvarez’s 2.64 ERA. The 1.21 WHIP is a clear indication that it’s not very sturdy and the xFIP is a full run higher. He hasn’t allowed a home run yet this year after toting 15% and 18% HR/FB rates the last two years. His 13% K rate is absolutely terrible, too.
NOT AT ALL CONFIDENT, HERE’S WHY:
Jerome Williams, LAA (at TEX) / Martin Perez, TEX (v. LAA) – Just a big bowl of nope here. Yesterday’s game was bananas and it featured two pitchers far more talented than this pair. Both of these guys have shown glimpses, but neither with strong enough component skills to believe it’s coming more often than not.
Jeremy Guthrie, KC (at MIN) / Kevin Correia, MIN (v. KC) – Not a chance.
ADVANCED METRICS: July 31st, 2013
| VS. L/R HANDED BATTERS | OPP vs L/R | OTHER ADVANCED STATS | |||||||||||
| PITCHER | wOBA L | ERA L | wOBA R | ERA R | AVG | OPS | BABIP | FIP | AVG-A | Pit/G | Strk% | ||
| Quintana | 0.332 | 3.34 | 0.297 | 3.66 | 0.265 | 0.763 | 0.271 | 3.86 | 0.237 | 101.86 | 62.4% | ||
| Kluber | 0.328 | 3.81 | 0.318 | 3.69 | 0.254 | 0.697 | 0.320 | 3.37 | 0.259 | 88.84 | 64.3% | ||
| Gaudin | 0.327 | 3.26 | 0.231 | 2.49 | 0.258 | 0.703 | 0.265 | 3.19 | 0.215 | 44.73 | 62.6% | ||
| Kendrick | 0.294 | 3.86 | 0.336 | 4.09 | 0.262 | 0.700 | 0.284 | 3.87 | 0.259 | 98.71 | 64.7% | ||
| Bedard | 0.361 | 5.48 | 0.338 | 3.98 | 0.246 | 0.699 | 0.293 | 4.56 | 0.247 | 87.10 | 61.9% | ||
| Gonzalez | 0.304 | 3.28 | 0.317 | 4.00 | 0.230 | 0.660 | 0.266 | 4.27 | 0.241 | 97.61 | 64.4% | ||
| Wainwright | 0.271 | 2.81 | 0.278 | 2.19 | 0.242 | 0.698 | 0.308 | 2.24 | 0.243 | 104.32 | 68.0% | ||
| Locke | 0.306 | 2.63 | 0.276 | 2.06 | 0.246 | 0.706 | 0.233 | 3.82 | 0.198 | 94.15 | 58.7% | ||
| Miley | 0.349 | 4.45 | 0.334 | 3.74 | 0.290 | 0.791 | 0.301 | 4.26 | 0.267 | 96.48 | 63.4% | ||
| Hellickson | 0.329 | 4.48 | 0.296 | 4.53 | 0.256 | 0.716 | 0.290 | 3.80 | 0.253 | 97.90 | 64.4% | ||
| Chatwood | 0.309 | 2.23 | 0.299 | 2.74 | 0.252 | 0.738 | 0.308 | 3.14 | 0.257 | 92.07 | 61.4% | ||
| Minor | 0.257 | 2.67 | 0.299 | 3.02 | 0.254 | 0.695 | 0.268 | 3.23 | 0.223 | 99.19 | 66.5% | ||
| Mejia | 0.138 | 0.00 | 0.321 | 0.00 | 0.234 | 0.620 | 0.350 | 1.04 | 0.259 | 97.00 | 68.0% | ||
| Alvarez | 0.331 | 4.76 | 0.270 | 1.40 | 0.235 | 0.682 | 0.293 | 2.78 | 0.252 | 85.20 | 66.9% | ||
| Iwakuma | 0.267 | 2.44 | 0.299 | 3.38 | 0.284 | 0.815 | 0.242 | 3.64 | 0.213 | 92.14 | 69.0% | ||
| Lackey | 0.275 | 2.66 | 0.376 | 3.86 | 0.249 | 0.732 | 0.288 | 3.93 | 0.249 | 98.00 | 65.2% | ||
| Williams | 0.382 | 5.75 | 0.315 | 4.04 | 0.262 | 0.741 | 0.288 | 4.76 | 0.269 | 63.96 | 63.2% | ||
| Perez | 0.314 | 2.03 | 0.383 | 5.40 | 0.239 | 0.695 | 0.316 | 4.45 | 0.291 | 86.00 | 63.5% | ||
| Peralta | 0.365 | 4.42 | 0.323 | 4.70 | 0.248 | 0.717 | 0.298 | 4.19 | 0.267 | 91.55 | 61.2% | ||
| Jackson | 0.334 | 5.71 | 0.320 | 4.28 | 0.254 | 0.715 | 0.310 | 3.55 | 0.258 | 93.70 | 60.4% | ||
| Guthrie | 0.378 | 4.93 | 0.310 | 3.63 | 0.239 | 0.692 | 0.276 | 5.33 | 0.270 | 101.29 | 63.1% | ||
| Correia | 0.369 | 5.43 | 0.346 | 3.86 | 0.254 | 0.686 | 0.305 | 4.79 | 0.291 | 93.95 | 62.3% | ||
| Kuroda | 0.304 | 2.82 | 0.248 | 2.21 | 0.266 | 0.723 | 0.253 | 3.50 | 0.224 | 97.71 | 63.6% | ||
| Kershaw | 0.190 | 1.32 | 0.248 | 2.16 | 0.236 | 0.650 | 0.233 | 2.50 | 0.182 | 107.09 | 66.0% | ||
- Opp Avg vs. L/R – Opponent Batting Average vs. Left/Right Handed Pitching
- Opp OPS vs. L/R – Opponent On Base + Slugging Percentage vs. Left/Right Handed Pitching
- wOBA-L and wOBA-R – Pitcher Weighted On Base Percentage Against vs. Left/Right Handed Batters
- ERA-L and ERA-R – Pitcher Earned Run Average against Left/Right Handed Batters
- BABIP – Pitcher Batting Average Against on Balls In Play
- FIP – Fielding Independent Pitching
- Pit/G – Average Pitches Thrown Per Game
- Strk% – Percentage of Pitches for Strikes
Starting Pitcher Salaries: July 31st, 2013
Click the image below to view pitcher salaries by each daily fantasy site along with their percent of top statistics.
- Percent of Top (Top) – Player salary divided by the most expensive pitcher each day. So if Felix Hernandez is $9,000 on FanDuel and Justin Verlander is $4,500, Verlanders Top stat would be 50.
NOTE: Button for pitcher salary chart above opens in popup window