Daily Pitcher Breakdown: July 31st
The Daily Pitcher Breakdown goes in-depth to look at nearly every pitching option, with a focus on the best targets for each night. Sometimes there will be a best of the rest section featuring guys who are likely low-dollar options with some upside for those of you who prefer to load your lineup with hitting studs.
There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in White are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ
Daily Pitcher Chart
| Pitcher | TM | OPP | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Danks | CWS | DET | 131.0 | 4.40 | 4.50 | 1.39 | 50.0% | 16.10% | 8.0% | 1.17 | 0.97 |
| Smyly | DET | CWS | 100.1 | 3.77 | 3.87 | 1.31 | 50.0% | 20.60% | 7.3% | 1.26 | 0.86 |
| Hernandez | COL | CHC | |||||||||
| Arrieta | CHC | COL | 91.0 | 2.18 | 2.90 | 1.01 | 50.0% | 27.40% | 7.2% | 0.20 | 1.68 |
| Miller | STL | SDP | 115.2 | 4.20 | 4.98 | 1.44 | 21.1% | 15.20% | 11.0% | 1.01 | 1.00 |
| Despaigne | SDP | STL | 38.0 | 1.66 | 4.86 | 1.11 | 100.0% | 13.20% | 10.5% | 0.24 | 1.79 |
| Skaggs | LAA | BAL | 108.1 | 4.49 | 3.82 | 1.25 | 37.5% | 17.60% | 6.3% | 0.75 | 1.66 |
| Norris | BAL | LAA | 102.2 | 3.94 | 4.22 | 1.24 | 26.7% | 17.70% | 7.9% | 1.05 | 1.14 |
| Young | SEA | CLE | 124.1 | 3.04 | 5.18 | 1.10 | 47.4% | 15.50% | 8.2% | 1.30 | 0.41 |
| McAllister | CLE | SEA | 63.2 | 5.65 | 4.24 | 1.48 | 33.3% | 19.00% | 9.2% | 0.85 | 1.05 |
| Lee | PHI | WAS | 78.2 | 3.78 | 3.27 | 1.41 | 60.0% | 19.80% | 3.5% | 0.80 | 1.66 |
| Gonzalez | WAS | PHI | 93.2 | 3.56 | 3.57 | 1.22 | 46.7% | 25.50% | 9.9% | 0.58 | 1.10 |
| Cueto | CIN | MIA | 155.2 | 2.08 | 3.07 | 0.93 | 76.2% | 25.70% | 6.9% | 0.69 | 1.56 |
| Koehler | MIA | CIN | 124.1 | 3.91 | 4.26 | 1.25 | 52.6% | 18.50% | 9.0% | 0.80 | 1.12 |
| Hutchison | TOR | HOU | 119.2 | 4.44 | 3.91 | 1.34 | 31.6% | 21.10% | 7.9% | 0.98 | 0.82 |
| Cosart | HOU | TOR | 116.1 | 4.41 | 4.42 | 1.46 | 31.6% | 14.80% | 10.1% | 0.54 | 2.19 |
| Correia | MIN | KCR | 117.1 | 5.06 | 5.00 | 1.51 | 45.0% | 10.30% | 5.9% | 1.00 | 1.03 |
| Ventura | KCR | MIN | 114.0 | 3.63 | 3.75 | 1.32 | 44.4% | 19.50% | 7.4% | 0.95 | 1.66 |
| Locke | PIT | ARI | 68.2 | 3.54 | 3.74 | 1.12 | 66.7% | 16.10% | 4.0% | 1.05 | 1.68 |
| Collmenter | ARI | PIT | 114.0 | 4.03 | 4.37 | 1.31 | 29.4% | 15.30% | 6.1% | 1.03 | 0.93 |
| Teheran | ATL | LAD | 149.1 | 2.71 | 3.48 | 1.04 | 70.0% | 22.20% | 5.2% | 0.90 | 0.84 |
| Kershaw | LAD | ATL | 112.1 | 1.76 | 1.89 | 0.81 | 66.7% | 33.30% | 3.6% | 0.48 | 1.87 |
Here is a look at the day’s slate of arms and how they might stack in their given matchups.
If a guy isn’t listed, he’s just kind of a neutral option – I’m not using him, but I’m not stacking against him, either.
GOLD BUYS:
These aren’t just low-cost guys with good matchups and/or venues, but you will also find expensive studs in here with great matchups.
Johnny Cueto CIN (at MIA) – This is about value. Kershaw is the best arm today, but Cueto is cheaper and facing the Marlins which gives him a better shot at notching a win, too.
Clayton Kershaw LAD (v. ATL) – What do you want me to say here? He’s amazing, I promise you that. In fact, he’s so good that it’s almost hard to roster him at this point unless you have two or three dirt-cheap bats that you like, too. That said, there are some decent bargain bin SPs today who you could pair Kershaw with to avoid having to swim in the utility infielder pool for a couple of players.
Julio Teheran ATL (at LAD) – Apart from the daily game implications, this is just a fantastic matchup here. Good luck figuring out who is going to give you a win between Teheran and Kershaw, though, as runs will be hard to come by. It’s worth noting that Teheran does have a 3.84 ERA over his last 10 thanks to a pair of duds (including one in Coors), but the 66 Ks and 6.0 K:BB ratio show just how good he’s been even with the elevated ERA.
Gio Gonzalez WAS (v. PHI) – Gonzalez had to shake some rust off in his first start back from the DL (5 IP/4 ER v. HOU), but he’s been great since. In fact, even leaving that start in gives him a 2.30 ERA in seven starts since returning with 45 Ks in 43 IP and just 28 hits allowed. Meanwhile, the Phillies have a .694 OPS against lefties that places them 21st in the league and they might be missing pieces from their lineup by the time this game starts if they actually get active in the deadline as they should.
SILVER BUYS:
On some days the slate is so full that there are just tons of worthy options. When that happens, they can’t all be Best Buys, so I’ll split them into Gold and Silver buys. The Silver buys will carry a touch more risk than the Gold ones either because their price isn’t necessarily a value or they have a worthy, but not overwhelming matchup. They aren’t the prime values, but they are useful fallbacks if your budget forces you in a direction you hadn’t originally intended to follow.
Drew Hutchison TOR (at HOU) – This one is straightforward, we’re playing his home/road split against a weak opponent. He has a 2.95 ERA in 82.3 road IP (7.71 in 37.3 at home) with 7.7 K/9 and 2.9 K:BB ratio. The Astros, despite their nice surge against Oakland, still aren’t a scary offense, especially against righties.
VALUE PLAYS:
These are guys aren’t inherently good buys, but they have a nice matchup and they’re likely to be very cheap so you can save with them and take the gamble that they come through with a strong effort.
Yordano Ventura KC (v. MIN) – I don’t really know where the strikeouts went, but they seem to have cut into his productivity. He had a 2.40 ERA and 53 Ks in his first 10 starts spanning 48.7 IP, but he has just a 4.55 ERA and 42 Ks in his last 65.3 IP (11 starts, 1 relief app.). The Twins offense has faded to below league average against righties, though, with a .687 OPS on the season (and that’s after a .788 in April, good for second in the league).
Jeff Locke PIT (at ARI) – Locke has a pair of 6 ER outings, which currently bookend his 10 starts, as his only really down marks on his record so far this year. Even with them, he has a 3.54 ERA with a 4.0 K:BB ratio. The strikeouts are way down, at an unimpressive 5.8 K/9, but I’ll take the tremendous K:BB rate and impressive ratios (1.12 WHIP). The D’Backs are league average against lefties with a .716 OPS (and it’s essentially the same both home and away). I think Locke is a worthy SP2.
STAYAWAYS:
These guys should just be avoided either because of their matchup, talent-level, or both. These guys are often the ones you’ll want to stack against if you use that method.
Cliff Lee PHI (at WAS) – I’m not really stacking against him, but we haven’t seen anything in his first two starts back and this is a tough opponent on lefties. Given that his price is still sky-high, I’d advise against using him until we see something from him. Plus, he could be dealt. It’s unlikely, but it could happen.
- Chris Young SEA (at CLE) – I had Jeff Locke in this same spot constantly last year as I simply didn’t believe that his sub-3.00 ERA fit with his skills. He carried that ERA into mid-August before an 8.59 ERA over his last seven starts boosted his ERA from 2.43 to 3.52. I expect something similar from Young eventually.
- Jarred Cosart HOU (v. TOR)
- Josh Collmenter ARI (v. PIT)
Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against
| Pitcher | wOBA vs L | ERA vs L | wOBA vs R | ERA vs R | AVG | OPS | BABIP | FIP | AVG-A | Pit/G | Strk% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Danks | 0.344 | 5.00 | 0.343 | 4.43 | 0.283 | 0.784 | 0.290 | 4.63 | 0.262 | 104.71 | 16.1% |
| Smyly | 0.206 | 2.12 | 0.351 | 3.82 | 0.254 | 0.701 | 0.297 | 4.17 | 0.256 | 89.20 | 20.6% |
| Hernandez | 0.306 | 5.40 | 0.439 | 7.34 | 0.263 | 0.754 | |||||
| Arrieta | 0.271 | 3.25 | 0.276 | 3.46 | 0.281 | 0.779 | 0.274 | 2.10 | 0.197 | 96.80 | 27.4% |
| Miller | 0.341 | 4.47 | 0.283 | 2.76 | 0.221 | 0.621 | 0.277 | 4.76 | 0.251 | 88.52 | 15.2% |
| Despaigne | 0.283 | 1.59 | 0.249 | 1.71 | 0.250 | 0.678 | 0.221 | 3.84 | 0.194 | 102.17 | 13.2% |
| Skaggs | 0.318 | 4.75 | 0.314 | 4.63 | 0.258 | 0.733 | 0.299 | 3.64 | 0.257 | 95.88 | 17.6% |
| Norris | 0.366 | 5.05 | 0.295 | 2.98 | 0.259 | 0.731 | 0.273 | 4.46 | 0.242 | 99.88 | 17.7% |
| Young | 0.328 | 2.74 | 0.252 | 3.38 | 0.262 | 0.749 | 0.215 | 4.82 | 0.209 | 93.48 | 15.5% |
| McAllister | 0.329 | 4.17 | 0.326 | 4.58 | 0.243 | 0.687 | 0.313 | 3.89 | 0.264 | 86.31 | 19.0% |
| Lee | 0.246 | 1.66 | 0.308 | 3.55 | 0.278 | 0.744 | 0.361 | 3.06 | 0.3 | 103.50 | 19.8% |
| Gonzalez | 0.266 | 3.34 | 0.306 | 3.45 | 0.243 | 0.692 | 0.290 | 3.15 | 0.22 | 98.25 | 25.5% |
| Cueto | 0.253 | 1.89 | 0.250 | 2.63 | 0.250 | 0.694 | 0.230 | 3.08 | 0.182 | 108.27 | 25.7% |
| Koehler | 0.296 | 3.24 | 0.338 | 5.07 | 0.240 | 0.671 | 0.268 | 4.03 | 0.23 | 91.52 | 18.5% |
| Hutchison | 0.338 | 5.51 | 0.308 | 3.08 | 0.226 | 0.666 | 0.304 | 3.88 | 0.253 | 94.90 | 21.1% |
| Cosart | 0.294 | 2.76 | 0.328 | 4.60 | 0.272 | 0.783 | 0.302 | 4.02 | 0.263 | 99.60 | 14.8% |
| Correia | 0.351 | 4.27 | 0.348 | 4.76 | 0.265 | 0.690 | 0.315 | 4.57 | 0.299 | 92.67 | 10.3% |
| Ventura | 0.304 | 3.16 | 0.331 | 4.35 | 0.242 | 0.688 | 0.298 | 3.84 | 0.254 | 92.35 | 19.5% |
| Locke | 0.308 | 3.62 | 0.304 | 3.50 | 0.264 | 0.716 | 0.276 | 3.89 | 0.252 | 93.00 | 16.1% |
| Collmenter | 0.324 | 3.22 | 0.297 | 3.93 | 0.260 | 0.737 | 0.297 | 4.12 | 0.269 | 77.57 | 15.3% |
| Teheran | 0.322 | 3.51 | 0.263 | 2.47 | 0.268 | 0.748 | 0.266 | 3.35 | 0.223 | 99.32 | 22.2% |
| Kershaw | 0.201 | 1.18 | 0.239 | 1.96 | 0.262 | 0.750 | 0.269 | 1.74 | 0.187 | 98.00 | 33.3% |
Starting Pitcher Salaries
Click the image below to view pitcher salaries by each daily fantasy site along with their percent of top statistics.
- Percent of Top (Top) – Player salary divided by the most expensive pitcher each day. So if Felix Hernandez is $9,000 on FanDuel and Justin Verlander is $4,500, Verlanders Top stat would be 50.
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