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Daily Pitcher Breakdown: July 7th

by PSporer Last Updated 2014-07-07 19:42:21

The Daily Pitcher Breakdown goes in-depth to look at nearly every pitching option, with a focus on the best targets for each night. Sometimes there will be a best of the rest section featuring guys who are likely low-dollar options with some upside for those of you who prefer to load your lineup with hitting studs.

There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.

LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in White are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE

View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ

Daily Pitcher Chart

Pitcher TM OPP IP ERA SIERA WHIP GEM% K% BB% HR/9 G/F
Tillman BAL WAS 99 4.18 4.87 1.39 35.7% 14.3% 9.2% 1.00 0.99
Strasburg WAS BAL 104.2 3.70 2.69 1.29 64.3% 27.7% 5.2% 0.86 1.57
Greene NYY CLE 0.1 0.00 16.73 30.00 20.0% 60.0% 0.00 1.00
Masterson CLE NYY 93 5.03 3.98 1.54 42.9% 20.3% 12.0% 0.48 2.82
Carroll CWS BOS 51 4.76 4.74 1.63 40.0% 10.3% 7.8% 0.88 1.74
Buchholz BOS CWS 57.1 6.75 4.71 1.86 30.0% 14.9% 8.7% 1.57 1.13
Shields KCR TBR 111.2 3.79 3.72 1.29 50.0% 18.3% 5.0% 1.21 1.41
Odorizzi TBR KCR 82.2 4.14 3.37 1.34 30.8% 27.2% 9.5% 0.76 0.84
Minor ATL NYM 66 4.50 3.56 1.48 62.5% 22.1% 6.8% 1.50 1.20
Matsuzaka NYM ATL 53 3.23 4.63 1.28 66.7% 21.6% 15.4% 0.34 1.11
Jackson CHC CIN 89.2 5.22 3.98 1.52 15.4% 21.7% 10.0% 0.90 1.25
Leake CIN CHC 108.1 3.41 3.35 1.15 46.2% 19.0% 5.2% 0.91 2.27
Cosart HOU TEX 95 3.60 4.23 1.31 30.8% 15.6% 9.3% 0.57 2.21
Mikolas TEX HOU
Hamels PHI MIL 88.2 2.84 3.25 1.19 60.0% 25.2% 8.0% 0.71 1.51
Estrada MIL PHI 96 5.06 3.99 1.26 23.1% 21.1% 8.0% 2.25 0.67
Morton PIT STL 100.1 3.41 3.68 1.23 38.5% 19.6% 8.2% 0.54 2.44
Wainwright STL PIT 116.1 2.01 3.14 0.90 78.6% 23.5% 4.9% 0.31 1.27
Kennedy SDP COL 103.1 4.01 3.10 1.23 50.0% 25.8% 6.3% 0.78 1.11
Matzek COL SDP 23.1 4.24 4.68 1.43 100.0% 12.0% 6.0% 0.39 1.21
Koehler MIA ARI 97.1 3.70 4.29 1.23 53.8% 18.5% 9.4% 0.83 1.24
Anderson ARI MIA 44.2 3.63 4.11 1.27 40.0% 18.2% 7.5% 1.61 1.16
Happ TOR LAA 65 4.29 4.26 1.54 25.0% 19.9% 10.5% 1.25 1.10
Weaver LAA TOR 110.2 3.33 4.13 1.14 50.0% 19.2% 7.4% 1.14 0.74
Vogelsong SFG OAK 91 3.96 3.92 1.32 53.8% 20.3% 7.5% 0.69 0.96
Chavez OAK SFG 98 2.94 3.58 1.21 53.8% 21.3% 6.9% 0.83 1.31
Correia MIN SEA 90.1 5.08 4.72 1.45 30.8% 11.4% 5.1% 0.90 1.05
Iwakuma SEA MIN 75 3.48 3.03 1.08 50.0% 19.0% 2.8% 1.20 2.35

Here is a look at the day’s slate of arms and how they might stack in their given matchups.

If a guy isn’t listed, he’s just kind of a neutral option – I’m not using him, but I’m not stacking against him, either.

BEST BUYS:

adam-wainwright-300x200

These aren’t just low-cost guys with good matchups and/or venues, but you will also find expensive studs in here with great matchups.

Adam Wainwright STL (v. PIT) – All of a sudden, Waino leads baseball in ERA with a 1.89. Perhaps surprisingly, his 0.90 WHIP doesn’t lead either baseball or even the National League, but it’s obviously still a fantastic figure. His strikeouts are down from a four-year hold in the 8.2-8.3 range at 7.7, but you can afford the tradeoff when you’re getting 7-plus innings per start on average.

Cole Hamels PHI (at MIL) – Hamels was on a massive role prior to his last outing with a 1.88 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in 10 starts with 7-plus innings in each outing before Miami saddled him with a modest 5 IP/3 ER loss. I like him to get back on track against Milwaukee. Their righty-loaded lineup seems primed to smash lefties, but they are 20th against them for the season and 25th over the last month-plus (since June 1st).

Hisashi Iwakuma SEA (v. MIN) – Iwakuma has either been excellent or shaky in his 12 starts. He has seven starts of 3 or fewer ER with 7 or more IP and three with 5 ER (his other two were just kind of OK… 7 IP/4 ER and 6.7 IP/4 ER). Iwakuma has dropped his strikeout rate some from last year going from 7.6 to 6.9, but his walk rate has dropped even more (from 1.7 to 0.9) yielding a tremendous 7.8 K:BB ratio in 81 IP. The Twins aren’t the rollover offense they were last year, but they aren’t one to fear with studs, either.

Stephen Strasburg WAS (v. BAL) – At his best, Strasburg is unquestionably matchup-proof. This is a tough matchup and he’s prone to the occasional stinker (perhaps more often than his talent merits), but he’s got 13 quality starts in his 18 turns and he’s still a strikeout stud. He leads the NL with 10.5 strikeouts per nine as well as an NL-best 5.5 K:BB ratio. Among the available studs, I think he’s the least appealing today because of his price and competition, but he’s nowhere near a stayaway or anything like that.

Mike Leake CIN (v. CHC) – It seems whenever we start trusting Leake, he drops a bomb on us. I mean, his 5.7 IP/3 ER effort last time out wasn’t necessarily BAD, but it was in San Diego and he was coming off of back-to-back 8 IP/1 ER gems, so the expectations were much higher. He gets another shot at a poor offense and I like him to advantage of it this time.

jesse-chavez-300x200

Jesse Chavez OAK (v. SF) – Chavez has been a little wobbly his last two times out with five inning efforts in Miami and Detroit, two offenses significantly better than the Giants. Chavez’s results have been markedly better at home with a 2.42 ERA and 1.16 WHIP in 44.7 home innings. The A’s have executed Chavez’s exit plan from the rotation by acquiring Samardzija and Hammel, but obviously he’s going to stick around for a while longer as he has just recently eclipsed 100 innings. If they begin to space out his starts and give him extended breaks, he could be an even more intriguing option later on. For now, he’s a solid choice, though just about every outlet has caught up to him in terms of price.

Jered Weaver LAA (v. TOR) – Weaver is just a different pitcher at home. He’s got a 2.75 ERA and 1.06 WHIP in 68.7 home innings compared to a 4.72 and 1.30 on the road. He gets an ailing Jays offense, too. They just scored four runs in four games against Oakland and lost Edwin Encarnacion for 2-4 weeks with a strained quad. You have to pick your spots with Weaver and I like this one because I think a lot of folks will be scared off by his facing Toronto.

Charlie Morton PIT (at STL) – Morton’s been pitching really well of late with a 3.32 ERA in his last six starts, but also a very impressive 44 strikeouts in 38 IP. He’s never been known for strikeouts, he had 45 strikeouts in his first 11 starts. The Cardinals are actually a bad offense thus far. Morton has a career-high strikeout rate while maintaining his elite groundball rate making him a very intriguing option on the daily landscape.

VALUE PLAYS:

These are guys aren’t inherently good buys, but they have a nice matchup and they’re likely to be very cheap so you can save with them and take the gamble that they come through with a strong effort.

Jake Odorizzi TB (v. KC) – Odorizzi has been a strikeout machine this year rather unexpectedly. He’s got 75 Ks in his last 60.7 IP covering 11 starts along with a 2.97 ERA. He had a 6.83 ERA in his first six starts. He’ll have his work cut out for him as the Royals are both tough to strikeout and hitting much better of late with a .326 wOBA in the last month – good for 8th in the league. He’s a gamble, but he could pay off handsomely.

Tom Koehler MIA (at ARI) – Koehler has been interesting this year. He carried a 2.25 ERA through his first nine starts, but an unimpressive 1.5 K:BB ratio suggested it was a mirage. He has a 4.94 ERA in his last eight, but with a 3.0 K:BB ratio including 45 strikeouts in 47.3 IP. He’s been rolling of late, though, with a 1.89 ERA and 21 Ks in his last three starts over 19 IP. The D’Backs still aren’t scary. They have offensive talent, but they’ve continually underperformed.

STAYAWAYS:

These guys should just be avoided either because of their matchup, talent-level, or both. These guys are often the ones you’ll want to stack against if you use that method.

Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against

Pitcher wOBA vs L ERA vs L wOBA vs R ERA vs R AVG OPS BABIP FIP AVG-A Pit/G Strk%
Tillman 0.336 4.35 0.314 3.71 0.235 0.673 1.390 4.18 0.051 86.35 63.0%
Strasburg 0.282 3.22 0.277 2.92 0.263 0.723 1.280 3.70 0.225 85.71 67.5%
Greene 0.690 0.230 0.264 0.753 9.000 0.00 -0.4 23.00 34.8%
Masterson 0.335 4.21 0.259 3.64 0.247 0.684 1.540 5.03 0.084 80.41 61.4%
Carroll 0.402 4.88 0.360 4.58 0.244 0.686 1.630 4.76 0.026 59.92 59.2%
Buchholz 0.298 3.19 0.313 3.80 0.261 0.733 1.850 6.75 0.062 84.18 62.7%
Shields 0.295 3.14 0.326 3.47 0.247 0.692 1.290 3.79 0.132 93.71 64.0%
Odorizzi 0.336 4.58 0.300 4.53 0.268 0.695 1.330 4.14 0.177 83.63 63.1%
Minor 0.272 2.70 0.315 3.74 0.252 0.674 1.480 4.50 0.153 83.00 63.2%
Matsuzaka 0.300 2.56 0.296 4.61 0.238 0.659 1.280 3.23 0.062 32.74 59.0%
Jackson 0.368 5.92 0.327 4.43 0.248 0.687 1.520 5.22 0.117 84.81 62.7%
Leake 0.328 3.58 0.305 3.43 0.223 0.640 1.140 3.41 0.138 84.06 64.2%
Cosart 0.278 2.85 0.332 3.83 0.257 0.689 1.310 3.60 0.063 85.19 61.9%
Mikolas 0.230 0.181 0.229 0.681
Hamels 0.309 4.68 0.303 3.08 0.238 0.698 1.180 2.84 0.172 89.38 65.0%
Estrada 0.293 3.87 0.338 4.65 0.234 0.653 1.260 5.06 0.132 88.69 63.9%
Morton 0.333 4.22 0.282 2.45 0.259 0.692 1.230 3.41 0.114 87.38 63.5%
Wainwright 0.276 3.21 0.264 2.25 0.258 0.715 0.900 2.01 0.186 89.19 67.1%
Kennedy 0.340 4.97 0.324 4.19 0.280 0.783 1.230 4.01 0.195 91.12 65.2%
Matzek 0.345 5.40 0.296 3.24 0.199 0.586 1.410 4.24 0.06 43.25 69.4%
Koehler 0.294 4.14 0.350 4.34 0.257 0.706 1.220 3.70 0.091 82.75 61.6%
Anderson 0.201 2.76 0.438 3.63 0.256 0.722 1.250 3.63 0.107 69.50 62.8%
Happ 0.350 4.66 0.333 4.22 0.264 0.763 1.540 4.29 0.094 66.71 64.6%
Weaver 0.299 3.59 0.295 3.21 0.263 0.766 1.140 3.33 0.118 86.82 61.2%
Vogelsong 0.338 4.54 0.370 5.36 0.256 0.754 1.320 3.96 0.127 83.38 61.5%
Chavez 0.314 3.49 0.258 3.16 0.253 0.708 1.210 2.94 0.144 85.06 67.7%
Correia 0.351 4.64 0.348 4.43 0.234 0.678 1.450 5.08 0.063 79.44 61.9%
Iwakuma 0.271 2.27 0.279 3.11 0.246 0.705 1.080 3.48 0.162 79.27 68.1%

Starting Pitcher Salaries

Click the image below to view pitcher salaries by each daily fantasy site along with their percent of top statistics.

daily%20pitcher%20chart%202

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About the Author

PSporer
PSporer

Paul has been writing about baseball for 15 years at various internet outlets and he’s been an avid fantasy baseballer for 21 of his 33 years on this planet, joining his first league at 12 years old which is still running today. He writes a comprehensive starting pitcher guide each year and it’s now available thespguide.com. When’s he’s not watching baseball, he is sleeping, because why would anyone waste time being awake if they weren’t going to watch baseball? He writes three times a week and has his own podcast at Fangraphs with co-hosts Eno Sarris & Jason Collette, contributes to Rotowire, and he has been a guest co-host with Matthew Berry on ESPN’s Fantasy Focus podcast.