Daily Pitcher Breakdown: June 12th, 2013

by PSporer Last Updated 2013-06-12 18:01:19

Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown. I will focus on the top selections of the day and give you a breakdown on why they are set up for success against their given opponent. Sometimes there will be a best of the rest section featuring guys who are likely low-dollar options with some upside for those of you who prefer to load your lineup with hitting studs.

There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.

LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in White are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE

View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ

Performance and Talent Statistics: June 12th, 2013

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STARTING PITCHER BREAKDOWN

Here is a look at the day’s slate of arms and how they might stack in their given matchups.

THE CREAM OF THE CROP:

Shelby Miller, STL (at NYM) – The Mets are terrible.

Chris Sale, CWS (v. TOR) – While the Jays do have a strong offense, lefties are their kryptonite and Sale, of course, is one of baseball’s best. Although in a world where Harang tosses two-hit shutouts, who knows?! The Jays rate in the bottom 10 by OPS against all three of Sale’s pitches (fastball, slider, and changeup) as several regulars carry sub-590 OPS totals when facing southpaws (Colby Rasmus, Melky Cabrera, JP Arencibi, and Maicer Izturis). Their two prime bats are split between successful (Jose Bautista at 844) and mediocre (Edwin Encarnacion at 762) against lefties.

Patrick Corbin, ARI (at LAD) – It’s a bit of a lefty-fest today. The Dodgers opened the year with a strong push against lefties ending April with an 823 OPS against them, good for second in MLB. Since turning the calendar to May they have a poor 672 OPS which lands them 23rd in the league. Corbin was sharp against them back in early April (6 IP, 0 ER) and carries a great career track record against them when you stretch back to his three appearances from 2012 as well: 1.33 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 14 K, and 9 BB in 20.3 IP.

Hyun-Jin Ryu, LAD (v. ARI) – The D’backs have taken the opposite path from the Dodgers as they finished the first month dead last in OPS against lefties with a 593 before ramping up to the league’s fourth-best squad against them at 770 in the month and a half since. Ryu tossed a baseline quality start against them in mid-April, but included nine strikeouts and just a single walk notching his second win of the season. After making it through April with a nearly unhittable slider (185 OPS against, 14 of his 46 Ks), Ryu has compensated for the regression of that pitch by relying on his changeup and curveball, both of which have been much better since April. Look for him to lean on his breaking stuff as the D’backs remain about average against both pitches in the last month and a half despite their surge up the overall rankings.

Jorge de la Rosa, COL (v. WAS) – Lefty-fest continues! DLR gets baseball’s worst team against lefties in the Nats and it’s not close. Their 585 OPS is significantly worse than the second-worst Marlins at 628. After a bad April (616), they’ve gotten even worse (567). DLR has strong results this year with a 3.38 ERA, but his 1.33 WHIP belies an ERA about a half run higher. His strikeout rate (15.5%) has evaporated from previous career levels that sat in the low-20s thanks in large part to a swinging strike rate that is below 10.4% for the first time since 2008. Coors Field hasn’t bothered as his ERA (3.15) and WHIP (1.31) are both better. There is some risk since he isn’t missing bats at a great rate, but that’s built into his very appealing price.

BEST THE REST:

Francisco Liriano, PIT (v. SF) – OK, Francisco, I’ll bite. Now you can go out and give up eight earned and make me look foolish because I know that’s all you’re waiting for!! The Giants offense has tanked in the past couple of weeks, but not against lefties. In the last 14 days, they have the second-best OPS against left-handers and the second-worst against right-handers.

However, I still rate Liriano up here because of both how excellent he has been thus far and also because the Giants lost two key cogs to their lefty-dominating offense yesterday as both Marco Scutaro (841 OPS v. LHP) and Pablo Sandoval (805) hit the disabled list. They do still have Buster Posey (917) and Hunter Pence (902), though, so it won’t be a cakewalk for Liriano.

Dan Straily, OAK (v. NYY) – I’ll direct you to yesterday’s comment for Colon re: the Yankees to see why Straily is another strong play. Straily, meanwhile, has improved every skill from last year including his strikeout, walk, and groundball rates. In fact, if he could improve a bit with runners on, his ERA could be significantly better than the 4.67 he has right now. He is someone to look at today as well as in your long-term leagues where he may be discounted thanks to the inflated ERA.

USE CAUTION:

Phil Hughes, NYY (at OAK) – Maddening barely describes Hughes. In fact, his season is a microcosm of why it will always come down to the pitcher himself even when you set up the best matchups in the best venues. He had a four-start run where he allowed a total of six runs in 28 innings (1.93 ERA) and KC and Seattle next on the docket. Of course he’s going to stretch his streak to six, right? The two teams obliterated him for 13 runs in 6.3 innings of work.

And he followed that up with a trip to Baltimore against one of the best offenses in the league and of course threw six strong allowing just two runs. Today he gets an Oakland offense that started the season strong, but mostly done away from home. Their home OPS is 711 overall and just 644 against righties (29th in MLB) and the spacious venue should aid Hughes with his biggest issue: home runs. Grab some Pepto if you roll with him today.

Nick Tepesch, TEX (v. CLE) – For as potent as the Cleveland offense is, they do most of their best work against southpaws. The only problem with Tepesch this year is that his off starts are full-on meltdowns (6, 5, 5, and 4 runs allowed). Cleveland struggles against righty breaking balls which happen to be Tepesch’s specialty. His curveball is allowing a 557 OPS while his slider is even better at 481. The two pitches have yielded 28 of his 45 strikeouts, too. I’ve been pretty vehement about avoiding the Cleveland offense, but this looks like a worthwhile spot to pick on them even with the strong offensive venue on Arlington.

Jordan Lyles, HOU (at SEA) – Lyles has quietly been pitching well since the thrashing that Texas dealt him on May 12th. In the subsequent five starts he hasn’t given up more than two earned runs en route to a 2.05 ERA and 1.17 WHIP in 30.7 IP. His 14% K rate isn’t terribly inspiring, but you needn’t be Nolan Ryan to thwart the Mariners with their 689 home OPS.

Kevin Slowey, MIA (v. MIL) – Slowey’s last outing looks like a brilliant start in Citi Field, but it was seven shutout relief innings in that bananas 20-inning game from Saturday. He scattered eight hits, but also notched eight strikeouts. Surprisingly, Slowey’s best work has come on the road despite playing in a venue tailor-made for his homerun tendencies. Yet he has still made the park look like Coors Field allowing nine homers in 38.7 innings (2.1 HR/9).

While the Brewers do have some great bats in their lineup, one of them – Ryan Braun – is indefinitely sidelined with a thumb and the team hasn’t been that forceful against righties on the road with a 669 OPS that lands them 24th overall. With Giancarlo Stanton and Logan Morrison back on board, this lineup can be a lot more supportive of their starters, though admittedly still far from a stalwart.

Tyler Cloyd, PHI (at MIN) – Cloyd is a great example of why small sample sizes need to be taken lightly. His 3.68 ERA isn’t bad, in fact it’s slightly above average, but his 1.47 WHIP and 1.3 K/BB rate portend an ERA at least a run higher. I see the four gems in five outings, but I just don’t trust him, not even against a mediocre offense like Minnesota’s. And to be fair, their offense has packed some punch against righties at home since May 1st. Now that is a lot of qualifiers, but the heart of their lineup with Mauer, Morneau, Doumit, and Willingham gives them a great foundation, especially in a one-game sample.

Barry Zito, SF (at PIT) – His worst outings are all on the road: 9 ER in Milwaukee in 2.7 IP, 6 R in SD in 3.7 IP though only one was earned, and then a pair of 5 ER in 5.7 IP outings in Toronto and Colorado. The Pirates offense has less than impressive this year and their composite numbers against left-handers leave them with the 24th-best OPS, but they’ve improved greatly since posting a 29th-ranked 605 OPS in April. Since May 1st they have a 738 OPS, good for 11th. I would use extreme caution here.

Jeremy Bonderman, SEA (v. HOU) – He has one awful start and one good one. Who the heck knows what we’ll get today after Harang chopped this team up last night. I didn’t think we’d see that, but given some of the legitimately great work Harang has done this year, it’s not that surprising when you consider how poor Houston can be at times. From Bonderman, it would be a complete jaw-dropper if he put together that kind of outing in his third start of the season after missing two whole seasons.

Dillon Gee, NYM (v. STL) – He’s pitching much better of late, but the work came against the Yankees and Nationals – two of the weakest offenses in the game. The Cardinals have the fifth-best OPS against righties on the season at 775 and that was after a slow April. Since May 1st they are second in baseball at 830.

Ubaldo Jimenez, CLE (at TEX) – He makes Phil Hughes look consistent. He’s had success and failure against both good and bad teams with no rhyme or reason to any of it. He could go out and Aaron Harang it, but I just don’t see any reason to invest. At least Harang was facing a poor team.

YOU CAN SAFELY IGNORE:

• Chris Archer
• Alfredo Aceves
• Alfredo Figaro
• Esmil Rogers
• Mike Pelfrey
• Ross Ohlendorf

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PARK FACTORS: June 12th, 2013

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Starting Pitcher Salaries: June 12th, 2013

Shown below are starting pitcher salaries as well as the percent of top statistics.

• Percent of Top (Top) – Player salary divided by the most expensive pitcher each day. So if Felix Hernandez is $9,000 on FanDuel and Justin Verlander is $4,500, Verlanders Top stat would be 50.

1) Percent Top in Red are the most expensive. Between 80% and 100% of the most expensive pitcher each day for each site.
2) Percent Top in Yellow cost between 60% and 80% of the most expensive pitcher each day for each site.
3) Percent Top in Green cost between 40% and 60% of the most expensive pitcher each day for each site.
4) Percent Top in Blue are the cheapest pitchers each day and are 40% or lower than the most expensive pitcher each day for each site.