Daily Pitcher Breakdown: June 13th
The Daily Pitcher Breakdown goes in-depth to look at nearly every pitching option, with a focus on the best targets for each night. Sometimes there will be a best of the rest section featuring guys who are likely low-dollar options with some upside for those of you who prefer to load your lineup with hitting studs.
There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in White are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ
Daily Pitcher Chart
| Pitcher | TM | OPP | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arrieta | CHC | PHI | 36 | 2.50 | 3.46 | 1.42 | 28.6% | 22.6% | 8.4% | 0.25 | 2.04 |
| Hernandez | PHI | CHC | 62 | 4.35 | 4.45 | 1.55 | 27.3% | 17.1% | 11.2% | 1.02 | 1.96 |
| Hutchison | TOR | BAL | 75 | 3.96 | 3.82 | 1.23 | 30.8% | 21.4% | 7.4% | 1.20 | 0.82 |
| Jimenez | BAL | TOR | 70 | 5.01 | 4.39 | 1.53 | 23.1% | 21.3% | 12.9% | 1.03 | 1.47 |
| Gibson | MIN | DET | 69 | 3.91 | 4.56 | 1.29 | 50.0% | 12.0% | 7.9% | 0.52 | 1.87 |
| Smyly | DET | MIN | 54.1 | 3.81 | 3.91 | 1.35 | 44.4% | 21.3% | 8.7% | 1.33 | 0.90 |
| Locke | PIT | MIA | 12.1 | 5.11 | 3.01 | 0.99 | 50.0% | 21.3% | 2.1% | 0.00 | 1.60 |
| Eovaldi | MIA | PIT | 82.2 | 3.27 | 3.43 | 1.16 | 53.8% | 20.2% | 4.4% | 0.65 | 1.39 |
| Cashner | SDP | NYM | 63.1 | 2.13 | 3.42 | 1.14 | 80.0% | 19.8% | 6.8% | 0.28 | 2.36 |
| Colon | NYM | SDP | 77.1 | 4.31 | 3.72 | 1.32 | 41.7% | 18.2% | 3.6% | 1.05 | 1.05 |
| Masterson | CLE | BOS | 80 | 4.61 | 3.81 | 1.48 | 42.9% | 20.8% | 11.0% | 0.56 | 2.81 |
| Lackey | BOS | CLE | 87.2 | 3.18 | 3.37 | 1.23 | 69.2% | 21.0% | 4.7% | 0.72 | 1.41 |
| Wilson | LAA | ATL | 86.2 | 3.32 | 3.64 | 1.17 | 53.8% | 22.8% | 9.8% | 0.73 | 1.88 |
| Harang | ATL | LAA | 78.1 | 3.33 | 3.72 | 1.28 | 76.9% | 23.5% | 8.8% | 0.46 | 0.87 |
| Cobb | TBR | HOU | 41 | 4.39 | 3.56 | 1.22 | 42.9% | 20.0% | 6.5% | 0.88 | 1.68 |
| McHugh | HOU | TBR | 54.1 | 2.82 | 3.22 | 1.04 | 55.6% | 27.4% | 8.7% | 0.66 | 1.08 |
| Guthrie | KCR | CWS | 85.2 | 4.10 | 4.79 | 1.23 | 46.2% | 11.5% | 5.6% | 1.37 | 1.08 |
| Quintana | CWS | KCR | 77.2 | 3.59 | 3.77 | 1.35 | 46.2% | 19.1% | 7.3% | 0.46 | 1.73 |
| Bailey | CIN | MIL | 78.1 | 4.60 | 3.56 | 1.43 | 30.8% | 20.6% | 7.4% | 1.26 | 1.83 |
| Garza | MIL | CIN | 79.1 | 4.42 | 4.24 | 1.35 | 23.1% | 18.9% | 9.0% | 0.79 | 1.06 |
| Zimmermann | WAS | STL | 76.2 | 3.17 | 3.32 | 1.25 | 38.5% | 20.8% | 4.4% | 0.59 | 1.52 |
| Lynn | STL | WAS | 77.1 | 3.49 | 4.01 | 1.41 | 46.2% | 20.1% | 9.0% | 0.70 | 1.36 |
| Phelps | NYY | OAK | 51.2 | 4.88 | 4.10 | 1.52 | 14.3% | 19.7% | 9.4% | 0.87 | 1.12 |
| Gray | OAK | NYY | 86 | 2.83 | 3.68 | 1.17 | 53.8% | 20.3% | 8.8% | 0.63 | 2.11 |
| Anderson | ARI | LAD | 28.2 | 3.14 | 3.83 | 1.17 | 40.0% | 18.8% | 6.0% | 1.57 | 1.26 |
| Kershaw | LAD | ARI | 48.1 | 3.17 | 1.80 | 1.04 | 50.0% | 33.3% | 3.7% | 0.74 | 2.30 |
| Tepesch | TEX | SEA | 25.2 | 4.91 | 4.71 | 1.59 | 20.0% | 15.8% | 9.7% | 1.75 | 1.06 |
| Hernandez | SEA | TEX | 98 | 2.39 | 2.49 | 1.01 | 71.4% | 27.3% | 4.4% | 0.28 | 2.06 |
| De La Rosa | COL | SFG | 71.1 | 4.04 | 4.11 | 1.22 | 38.5% | 18.9% | 10.1% | 1.26 | 1.85 |
| Lincecum | SFG | COL | 70.2 | 4.97 | 3.86 | 1.55 | 23.1% | 22.3% | 10.2% | 1.27 | 1.58 |
Here is a look at the day’s slate of arms and how they might stack in their given matchups.
If a guy isn’t listed, he’s just kind of a neutral option – I’m not using him, but I’m not stacking against him, either.
WEATHER WORRIES:
There is a lot of potentially rough weather out there on Friday so you have to be careful with the following matchups:
-Toronto at Baltimore
-Chicago (N) at Philly
-Cleveland at Boston
-San Diego at New York (N)
-Los Angeles (A) at Atlanta
Keep that in mind as I include any pitchers from these matchups.
BEST BUYS:
These aren’t just low-cost guys with good matchups and/or venues, but you will also find expensive studs in here with great matchups.
Clayton Kershaw LAD (v. ARI) – I’m quite eager to see how Kershaw handles the D’backs tonight. Remember, they popped him for 7 ER in just 1.7 IP back on May 17th and it seems to have spurred his excellent run during which he’s posted a 2.08 ERA and 0.77 WHIP in four starts with nine strikeouts in each outing en route to a 36/4 K:BB ratio.
Felix Hernandez SEA (v. TEX) – The idea of East Coast Bias can be overused and overblown, but I think there is some validity when it comes to Felix. If he wasn’t up in the northwest, he’d definitely have a bigger profile on the national landscape. Everyone understands he’s a stud and unquestioned ace, but even still, he doesn’t get enough run as one of the game’s very best. He had an uncharacteristic 0 K game against Oakland back on May 7th, but since then he’s dropped a 1.99 ERA and 0.91 WHIP over his last six starts with a 53/5 K:BB ratio that includes a career-best 15 strikeouts his last time out.
Bartolo Colon NYM (v. SD) – Colon continues to try and outrun the three ugly starts that have marred his ERA thus far. At 4.31, it’s hardly egregiously bad, but 59.5% of his ER this year have come in those three starts. He has a 2.18 ERA in his other nine starts and even when you count the three duds, he still has a sparkling 5.1 K:BB ratio. I’m using Colon almost every time out these days because his price is still being depressed by the overall numbers. I really hope this one isn’t rained out in Citi Field.
Nathan Eovaldi MIA (v. PIT) – A rough go in San Francisco raised Eovaldi’s ERA nearly a full run from 2.86 to 3.62, but he’s been great since then with a 2.57 ERA and 1.00 WHIP with a 6.3 K:BB ratio in 28 IP during the four starts. The Pirates hold the fourth-worst wOBA against righty sliders, Eovaldi’s best secondary offering, at just .225 with a .193 AVG.
Andrew Cashner SD (at NYM) – Cashner picked up right where he left off, returning from the DL with six scoreless against the Nationals, pushing his ERA down to 2.13 for the season. Runs will be tough to come by in Queens tonight with Colon and Cashner on the mound. While a win will likely be tough to come by for either arm as they could be deadlocked at zero six or seven innings into the game, I still have a lot of interest in both. These are two of the three worst teams in wOBA against righties with the Mets 28th and the Padres sitting dead last.
Jake Arrieta CHC (at PHI) – Arrieta started off with a 2.70 ERA through his first three starts, but he hadn’t gone more than 5 IP and his 13/8 K:BB was uninspiring, but he’s been excellent in his last four outings with a 2.38 ERA and 22/5 K:BB ratio in 22.7 IP of work. The run has included outings against the Mets and Padres, but the Phillies are just a single point better than the Mets in wOBA against at .285 so this is a great chance for Arrieta to stay hot.
Sonny Gray OAK (v. NYY) – Gray’s been struggling a bit of late with a 6.00 ERA in his last three thanks to some command issues, but he’s still fanned 17 in 18 IP. Plus, those outings have come against DET, LAA, and BAL – three of the tougher offenses in the league. The Yankees are not in that class and they offer a great shot for Gray to get back on track. Even with the downturn during these last three starts, he still has a 2.83 ERA for the season.
Homer Bailey CIN (at MIL) – Bailey is getting hot with four straight quality starts, posting a 3.00 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP in 27 innings of work with a 3.4 K:BB ratio. The Brewers aren’t an easy matchup, but they aren’t as tough as their record might indicate, either. Bailey at his best is matchup-proof anyway and he may finally be creeping toward that status again.
Drew Hutchison TOR (at BAL) – Hutch is just a different pitcher on the road with a 2.03 ERA and 0.96 WHIP in 53.3 IP along with a 4.6 K:BB ratio. Compare that to an 8.72 ERA at home. The Orioles offense is tough, especially with Adam Jones surging, but they haven’t been particularly special at home with a paltry .296 wOBA – 24th in baseball.
Collin McHugh HOU (v. TB) – I’m buying into McHugh here, even on the heels of his worst outing of the year (4.3 IP/3 ER at MIN). His strikeouts have been there throughout the season with at least six in six of his nine outings. Meanwhile, the Rays are just horrible. You realize they have the worst record in baseball, right? They are actually markedly worse than the Astros, too. This was the World Series pick for many and the AL East winner for tons of people… myself included.
SOLID BUYS:
Jordan Zimmermann WAS (at STL) – Zimm is surging with 17 scoreless IP in his last two starts including a shutout against the Padres. The other outing is against Philly so it’s not like he’s ripping up fierce competition, but this might be just what he needs to get him back on track. Meanwhile, the Cards .303 wOBA against righties is actually below league average. They just haven’t been the threat they were last year.
Lance Lynn STL (v. WAS) – I’ve always been a huge Lynn fan, but he is maddeningly inconsistent. He goes into Toronto when they were absolutely white-hot and he pulled a solid 5 IP/2 ER effort with six strikeouts. Lynn has allowed more than 3 ER just three times in his 13 starts this year. I like both of the starters in this matchup, but both offenses can be scary and neither comes particularly cheap at most outlets.
VALUE PLAYS:
These are guys aren’t inherently good buys, but they have a nice matchup and they’re likely to be very cheap so you can save with them and take the gamble that they come through with a strong effort.
Drew Smyly DET (v. MIN) – Smyly rebounded from a pair of duds with a 6 IP/1 ER gem against Boston. His 3.81 ERA doesn’t jump off the page, but 10 of his 23 ER as a starter have come in two outings. The Twins are below league average against lefties and I really like this spot for Smyly.
Jose Quintana CWS (v. KC) – I think I write the same thing every five days about Quintana – he’s just a solid option. He doesn’t overwhelm the opposition, but he’s rarely ever pummeled, either. The Royals offense remains uninspiring and worth picking on with even lesser talents than Quintana. He’s a high-floor, safe option as opposed to a big gamble that you’re hoping to get a shutout from if everything goes right.
Jeff Locke PIT (at MIA) – Locke was smashed by SF and then dominated Milwaukee. Last year’s 3.52 ERA was a mirage as he managed a paltry 1.5 K:BB ratio, but he also had an elite groundball rate last year that helped cover mistakes. The 5.11 ERA (albeit in just two starts) should keep his price down and I’d give him a look, even against the punchy Marlins.
Tim Lincecum SF (v. COL) – I can’t get a firm read on Lincecum this year and I’ve been reticent to trust him, but the Rockies are freezing cold right now and Lincecum has been markedly better at home. He isn’t a value play everywhere as some sites still price him rather high based on his name value, but at the outlets that have appropriately downgraded the one-time superstar, I would definitely take a look here.
STAYAWAYS:
These guys should just be avoided either because of their matchup, talent-level, or both. These guys are often the ones you’ll want to stack against if you use that method.
Ubaldo Jimenez BAL (v. TOR) – The Jays are flailing a bit of late, but I still don’t trust Ubaldo, especially since the Jays will emerge from this mini-slump eventually.
Chase Anderson ARI (at LAD) – I’m still a bit skeptical of Anderson, particularly with the home run rate (1.6 HR/9). The 3.1 K:BB ratio is nice, but it’s built on walking nobody as opposed to piling up strikeouts.
Kyle Gibson MIN (at DET)
Jeremy Guthrie KC (at CWS)
NOTES ON THOSE NOT INCLUDED:
- Alex Cobb hasn’t looked good since returning from the DL and there is speculation that he might still be hurt
- The Braves are baseball’s second-best team against lefties making C.J. Wilson a tough buy today
- Cleveland is pummeling righties with baseball’s second-best wOBA against righties at .332 so I’m not really going for John Lackey despite how good he’s been this year.
- “Aaron Harang(player-profile)”:/players/Aaron_Harang-11003’s component numbers back up his strong results this year, but the Angels aren’t to be trifled with and there is still a chance that 2013 Harang comes back and so I’m only using him against weaker opponents.
Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against
| Pitcher | wOBA vs L | ERA vs L | wOBA vs R | ERA vs R | AVG | OPS | BABIP | FIP | AVG-A | Pit/G | Strk% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arrieta | 0.304 | 3.70 | 0.321 | 4.45 | 0.231 | 0.643 | 1.420 | 2.50 | 0.142 | 90.14 | 62.4% |
| Hernandez | 0.380 | 5.93 | 0.322 | 3.73 | 0.219 | 0.633 | 1.550 | 4.35 | 0.059 | 79.21 | 60.3% |
| Hutchison | 0.329 | 3.89 | 0.301 | 4.13 | 0.270 | 0.734 | 1.230 | 3.96 | 0.141 | 94.23 | 63.8% |
| Jimenez | 0.307 | 3.90 | 0.319 | 3.74 | 0.269 | 0.792 | 1.530 | 5.01 | 0.084 | 101.46 | 60.7% |
| Gibson | 0.352 | 4.66 | 0.306 | 5.53 | 0.273 | 0.756 | 1.290 | 3.91 | 0.041 | 91.25 | 60.1% |
| Smyly | 0.206 | 1.94 | 0.343 | 3.69 | 0.238 | 0.665 | 1.340 | 3.81 | 0.126 | 83.33 | 64.0% |
| Locke | 0.337 | 4.72 | 0.298 | 3.45 | 0.275 | 0.726 | 0.970 | 5.11 | 0.192 | 70.00 | 73.6% |
| Eovaldi | 0.336 | 3.64 | 0.273 | 3.08 | 0.251 | 0.703 | 1.150 | 3.27 | 0.158 | 101.00 | 67.1% |
| Cashner | 0.303 | 3.46 | 0.257 | 2.36 | 0.226 | 0.646 | 1.140 | 2.13 | 0.129 | 95.20 | 68.0% |
| Colon | 0.310 | 3.46 | 0.290 | 2.81 | 0.221 | 0.623 | 1.320 | 4.31 | 0.146 | 99.33 | 67.9% |
| Masterson | 0.332 | 4.13 | 0.257 | 3.42 | 0.242 | 0.682 | 1.480 | 4.61 | 0.098 | 93.43 | 62.1% |
| Lackey | 0.292 | 3.01 | 0.324 | 3.92 | 0.264 | 0.751 | 1.220 | 3.18 | 0.163 | 102.46 | 68.6% |
| Wilson | 0.231 | 2.42 | 0.323 | 3.71 | 0.282 | 0.843 | 1.170 | 3.32 | 0.13 | 111.77 | 59.1% |
| Harang | 0.345 | 4.92 | 0.317 | 4.45 | 0.252 | 0.728 | 1.280 | 3.33 | 0.146 | 102.31 | 64.1% |
| Cobb | 0.292 | 3.49 | 0.295 | 2.65 | 0.224 | 0.675 | 1.220 | 4.39 | 0.135 | 90.57 | 65.9% |
| McHugh | 0.317 | 4.54 | 0.332 | 5.80 | 0.248 | 0.695 | 1.030 | 2.82 | 0.187 | 99.22 | 64.7% |
| Guthrie | 0.378 | 4.66 | 0.280 | 3.40 | 0.259 | 0.728 | 1.230 | 4.10 | 0.059 | 103.77 | 65.2% |
| Quintana | 0.319 | 3.50 | 0.301 | 3.58 | 0.244 | 0.652 | 1.340 | 3.59 | 0.118 | 103.38 | 61.8% |
| Bailey | 0.348 | 4.21 | 0.271 | 3.51 | 0.260 | 0.719 | 1.430 | 4.60 | 0.132 | 101.38 | 64.7% |
| Garza | 0.331 | 4.43 | 0.296 | 3.68 | 0.243 | 0.676 | 1.350 | 4.42 | 0.099 | 97.77 | 65.5% |
| Zimmermann | 0.303 | 3.41 | 0.282 | 3.09 | 0.260 | 0.688 | 1.240 | 3.17 | 0.164 | 90.08 | 68.4% |
| Lynn | 0.336 | 4.68 | 0.294 | 3.28 | 0.241 | 0.688 | 1.410 | 3.49 | 0.111 | 104.23 | 62.1% |
| Phelps | 0.315 | 4.04 | 0.372 | 6.17 | 0.255 | 0.762 | 1.510 | 4.88 | 0.103 | 56.06 | 61.3% |
| Gray | 0.279 | 2.75 | 0.257 | 2.80 | 0.249 | 0.690 | 1.170 | 2.83 | 0.116 | 101.77 | 61.3% |
| Anderson | 0.186 | 2.70 | 0.425 | 3.52 | 0.269 | 0.763 | 1.150 | 3.14 | 0.128 | 91.20 | 64.3% |
| Kershaw | 0.196 | 1.31 | 0.255 | 2.27 | 0.269 | 0.754 | 1.030 | 3.17 | 0.297 | 88.50 | 70.2% |
| Tepesch | 0.376 | 5.70 | 0.301 | 3.71 | 0.233 | 0.680 | 1.560 | 4.91 | 0.061 | 94.00 | 62.3% |
| Hernandez | 0.283 | 3.14 | 0.264 | 2.50 | 0.261 | 0.703 | 1.010 | 2.39 | 0.229 | 102.14 | 66.4% |
| De La Rosa | 0.235 | 2.41 | 0.344 | 4.09 | 0.242 | 0.717 | 1.220 | 4.04 | 0.088 | 92.54 | 60.2% |
| Lincecum | 0.328 | 4.54 | 0.330 | 4.58 | 0.277 | 0.787 | 1.54 | 4.97 | 0.121 | 97.08 | 61.6% |
Starting Pitcher Salaries
Click the image below to view pitcher salaries by each daily fantasy site along with their percent of top statistics.
- Percent of Top (Top) – Player salary divided by the most expensive pitcher each day. So if Felix Hernandez is $9,000 on FanDuel and Justin Verlander is $4,500, Verlanders Top stat would be 50.
NOTE: Button for pitcher salary chart above opens in popup window