Daily Pitcher Breakdown: June 16th
The Daily Pitcher Breakdown goes in-depth to look at nearly every pitching option, with a focus on the best targets for each night. Sometimes there will be a best of the rest section featuring guys who are likely low-dollar options with some upside for those of you who prefer to load your lineup with hitting studs.
There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in White are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ
Daily Pitcher Chart
| Pitcher | TM | OPP | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weaver | LAA | CLE | 89.2 | 3.51 | 4.17 | 1.18 | 50.0% | 19.4% | 7.9% | 1.20 | 0.73 |
| Bauer | CLE | LAA | 34 | 4.24 | 3.47 | 1.32 | 50.0% | 25.2% | 8.4% | 1.32 | 0.80 |
| Vargas | KCR | DET | 92.2 | 3.30 | 4.07 | 1.21 | 71.4% | 17.4% | 6.0% | 1.07 | 1.00 |
| Verlander | DET | KCR | 91.2 | 4.61 | 4.63 | 1.51 | 35.7% | 16.5% | 9.6% | 0.69 | 0.97 |
| Chen | BAL | TBR | 76.2 | 3.76 | 3.59 | 1.26 | 38.5% | 18.0% | 3.5% | 1.06 | 1.37 |
| Odorizzi | TBR | BAL | 65 | 4.85 | 3.37 | 1.42 | 30.8% | 26.6% | 9.1% | 0.83 | 0.90 |
| Hamels | PHI | ATL | 67.1 | 3.07 | 3.27 | 1.21 | 60.0% | 25.1% | 7.9% | 0.53 | 1.43 |
| Teheran | ATL | PHI | 97 | 2.41 | 3.70 | 0.97 | 78.6% | 20.5% | 5.5% | 0.93 | 0.84 |
| Hammel | CHC | MIA | 83.1 | 2.81 | 3.32 | 0.99 | 46.2% | 23.2% | 5.5% | 0.65 | 1.00 |
| Koehler | MIA | CHC | 78.1 | 3.68 | 4.61 | 1.28 | 53.8% | 16.9% | 10.6% | 0.92 | 1.27 |
| Correia | MIN | BOS | 72.1 | 5.60 | 4.63 | 1.53 | 30.8% | 11.8% | 4.7% | 1.00 | 1.06 |
| De La Rosa | BOS | MIN | 18.1 | 3.93 | 2.65 | 1.33 | 33.3% | 26.3% | 5.3% | 1.47 | 2.08 |
| Degrom | NYM | STL | 36.2 | 3.44 | 4.17 | 1.27 | 33.3% | 21.2% | 10.6% | 1.23 | 0.92 |
| Martinez | STL | NYM | 34.2 | 4.67 | 3.59 | 1.32 | 19.3% | 9.7% | 0.52 | 1.96 | |
| Peralta | MIL | ARI | 80.2 | 2.90 | 3.70 | 1.23 | 61.5% | 18.2% | 6.6% | 1.12 | 1.87 |
| McCarthy | ARI | MIL | 85 | 5.29 | 2.96 | 1.36 | 28.6% | 20.9% | 4.4% | 1.48 | 2.37 |
| Lewis | TEX | OAK | 58 | 5.74 | 4.37 | 1.81 | 17.8% | 8.4% | 0.93 | 0.80 | |
| Pomeranz | OAK | TEX | 52 | 1.90 | 3.91 | 1.13 | 28.6% | 21.3% | 10.1% | 1.04 | 1.31 |
| Matzek | COL | LAD | 7 | 2.57 | 2.46 | 0.71 | 100.0% | 26.9% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 0.88 |
| Ryu | LAD | COL | 70.1 | 3.33 | 3.61 | 1.27 | 58.3% | 19.5% | 5.4% | 0.51 | 1.36 |
| Ross | SDP | SEA | 88 | 2.97 | 3.26 | 1.25 | 57.1% | 22.8% | 9.0% | 0.72 | 2.71 |
| Young | SEA | SDP | 73.1 | 3.68 | 5.99 | 1.26 | 41.7% | 11.4% | 10.4% | 1.35 | 0.44 |
Here is a look at the day’s slate of arms and how they might stack in their given matchups.
If a guy isn’t listed, he’s just kind of a neutral option – I’m not using him, but I’m not stacking against him, either.
BEST BUYS:
These aren’t just low-cost guys with good matchups and/or venues, but you will also find expensive studs in here with great matchups.
Cole Hamels PHI (at ATL) – Hamels is absolutely rolling right now. He’s got a 1.78 ERA and 1.01 WHIP in his last 50.7 IP with 56 strikeouts and a 3.7 K:BB ratio. Atlanta does their best work against lefties this year, but Hamels is matchup-proof right now. Plus, they still strikeout 25% of the time against southpaws – a league high.
Julio Teheran ATL (v. PHI) – A surefire sign that you’re having a nice season is when you allowed 7 ER and your ERA only jumps to 2.41 for the season. Teheran was knocked around in Coors which is hardly a crime and a showdown against the paltry Phillies is a perfect remedy to get back on track. Teheran’s skills were a little light in comparison to his gaudy ERA early on, but he’s got 32 strikeouts and just five walks (6.4 K:BB ratio) over his last five starts along with a 2.78 ERA despite that massacre in Coors.
Hyun-Jin Ryu LAD (v. COL) – Ryu had a streak of four straight QS before his latest outing, a 6 IP/4 ER effort in Cincy, but even with that he has a 3.73 ERA and 1.30 WHIP in his last five with a 27/5 K:BB ratio in 31.3 IP. The Rockies have been in a freefall of late falling from their lofty perch against southpaws, especially on the road. In the last month, they have a .280 wOBA in 11 road games against left-handers.
Jason Hammel CHC (at MIA) – Hammel has been excellent with the Cubs and his numbers support the sparkling ERA, too. He dropped seven shutout innings on the Marlins back on June 6th, though that was at home. The Marlins are markedly better at home, though they’ve faded a bit recently. They are fifth in wOBA at home against righties for the season, but down to 13th over the last month. Their 11% BB rate – secondin baseball – in the last month is helping keep them 13th, but Hammel doesn’t walk guys (5.5% BB rate) so that could exacerbate their recent issues.
Tyson Ross SD (at SEA) – Ross is showing that last year’s surge was no fluke as he’s basically matched his 2013 component numbers giving him a 3.08 ERA and 1.19 ERA in 213 IP over the last two seasons with a 2.6 K:BB ratio. He still has a distinct home/road split, but he’s improving on the road with three gems in his last four yielding a 2.16 ERA and 2.7 K/BB ratio in 25 IP with 24 strikeouts. Seattle is also baseball’s worst team against righties at home with a paltry .257 wOBA.
Drew Pomeranz OAK (v. TEX)
Wily Peralta MIL (at ARI)
VALUE PLAYS:
These are guys aren’t inherently good buys, but they have a nice matchup and they’re likely to be very cheap so you can save with them and take the gamble that they come through with a strong effort.
Wei-Yin Chen BAL (at TB) – If Chen could whittle down that homer rate, he has the skills to be a low-to-mid 3.00s pitcher, but it seems like the homers are just going to be a part of his game leaving him in that high-3.00s, low-4.00s ERA area instead. That still allows for several big outings, though, and the Rays haven’t done anything against lefties this year with an ugly .272 wOBA. Chen has a career 2.86 ERA against them in nine starts including a 6.3 IP/1 ER gem earlier this year.
Jake Odorizzi TB (v. BAL) – Odorizzi has a 3.38 ERA over his last seven starts, but he’s probably deserved much better with his 50/12 K:BB ratio in 37.3 IP of work. He’s either been great or horrible in that stretch with four outings of 0-1 ER and then more ER than IP in the other three combined. Baltimore is no slouch offensively, but I like Odorizzi’s strikeout upside here especially since he’s priced rather reasonably at most outlets with a 4.85 season ERA.
Tyler Matzek COL (at LAD) – Don’t forget that Matzek was once a blue-chip stud prospect, but even still that debut was pretty shocking. The real shock wasn’t the 7 IP/2 ER – even though ATL is good against lefties – or the 7 Ks, but rather the 0 BBs. Walks have plagued Matzek’s career thus far and he walked more than four per game in Triple-A prior to his call-up. The Dodgers have been flailing against lefties dating back to last year so I like this spot for Matzek to stay hot. I’d love to see him pan out on the promise that made him a top 35 prospect for two straight years in 2010-2011, but we’re a long way from that, let’s just hope for six or seven strong innings on Monday first.
Brandon McCarthy ARI (v. MIL) – Alright this is it. I’ve been putting him here for weeks, but if we don’t get something worthwhile this time, I’ll stop suggesting you buy-low on him. I’m just tantalized by the skills, which are the best we’ve ever seen from him. He’s got an elite groundball rate (55.8%), an elite walk rate (4.4%), and a strong strikeout rate (20.9% – far and away a career-best). If he didn’t have an obscene 22.2% HR/FB rate, his ERA would easily be two runs lower than the 5.29 he’s at right now. In fact, xFIP (which neutralizes HR rates) puts him at 2.86. Let’s see something against a solid Milwaukee lineup.
Chris Young SEA (v. SD) – I have a hard time using someone with a higher HR/9 rate (1.4) than K:BB ratio (1.1), but Young gets the benefit of facing the Padres. That alone gives him at least some viability. I’d only pair him with an ace because it can go south quickly, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he threw up 6+ decent innings.
STAYAWAYS:
These guys should just be avoided either because of their matchup, talent-level, or both. These guys are often the ones you’ll want to stack against if you use that method.
Colby Lewis TEX (at OAK) – I actually like Lewis to eventually trim that 5.74 ERA by a decent margin, but I’m not betting on that to start with his trip to Oakland. They are deadly right now.
NOTES:
There just aren’t many stack opportunities on Monday. Here are some thoughts on a few of the guys I didn’t write up.
-No one would be surprised to see either Jered Weaver or Trevor Bauer rise up in that LAA/CLE game so I wouldn’t load up on them, but both offenses are scary enough to avoid both pitchers. CLE is third in wOBA against righties while LAA is eighth. If I had to go with one of these guys, it’d be Bauer because he will be markedly cheaper at just about every outlet.
-Justin Verlander has been a nightmare of late, but are you really excited with the idea of stacking that punchless KC offense? Would you honestly be surprised if he threw seven scoreless against them? The answer is no… or at least it should be.
-Tom Koehler’s 3.68 ERA is a mirage, but I’m not sure the Cubs have enough pieces to actively seek out beyond Anthony Rizzo.
-Kevin Correia seems like someone to stack against, but if you like the ERA indicators as I do, then you see his and know that he’s got some decent outings coming like his gem in Toronto last time out. I would never actually use him, but I don’t think the Red Sox are a shoo-in to decimate him, either.
Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against
| Pitcher | wOBA vs L | ERA vs L | wOBA vs R | ERA vs R | AVG | OPS | BABIP | FIP | AVG-A | Pit/G | Strk% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weaver | 0.298 | 3.49 | 0.296 | 3.22 | 0.267 | 0.760 | 1.170 | 3.51 | 0.114 | 98.29 | 61.0% |
| Bauer | 0.358 | 3.54 | 0.338 | 5.46 | 0.253 | 0.725 | 1.320 | 4.24 | 0.168 | 98.17 | 64.2% |
| Vargas | 0.332 | 3.06 | 0.325 | 4.04 | 0.266 | 0.743 | 1.210 | 3.30 | 0.114 | 105.36 | 63.8% |
| Verlander | 0.299 | 3.32 | 0.341 | 4.61 | 0.257 | 0.666 | 1.510 | 4.61 | 0.069 | 112.64 | 62.0% |
| Chen | 0.326 | 3.71 | 0.332 | 4.06 | 0.237 | 0.657 | 1.250 | 3.76 | 0.145 | 96.31 | 65.0% |
| Odorizzi | 0.337 | 4.58 | 0.304 | 4.69 | 0.265 | 0.725 | 1.420 | 4.85 | 0.175 | 95.77 | 63.0% |
| Hamels | 0.309 | 4.86 | 0.304 | 3.14 | 0.268 | 0.795 | 1.200 | 3.07 | 0.172 | 106.80 | 65.1% |
| Teheran | 0.321 | 3.72 | 0.270 | 2.31 | 0.231 | 0.642 | 0.970 | 2.41 | 0.15 | 98.07 | 66.6% |
| Hammel | 0.360 | 5.27 | 0.283 | 3.10 | 0.256 | 0.723 | 0.980 | 2.81 | 0.177 | 100.62 | 63.5% |
| Koehler | 0.298 | 4.17 | 0.350 | 4.22 | 0.222 | 0.635 | 1.280 | 3.68 | 0.063 | 95.15 | 60.8% |
| Correia | 0.353 | 4.71 | 0.351 | 4.51 | 0.247 | 0.696 | 1.520 | 5.60 | 0.072 | 90.46 | 62.0% |
| De La Rosa | 0.276 | 1.54 | 0.400 | 6.50 | 0.249 | 0.715 | 1.310 | 3.93 | 0.211 | 102.00 | 66.7% |
| Degrom | 0.332 | 4.11 | 0.301 | 3.05 | 0.254 | 0.678 | 1.250 | 3.44 | 0.106 | 101.17 | 62.1% |
| Martinez | 0.397 | 7.66 | 0.261 | 3.16 | 0.226 | 0.646 | 1.300 | 4.67 | 0.097 | 16.87 | 63.0% |
| Peralta | 0.332 | 3.88 | 0.304 | 4.03 | 0.257 | 0.706 | 1.230 | 2.90 | 0.116 | 98.62 | 63.9% |
| McCarthy | 0.336 | 4.51 | 0.348 | 5.18 | 0.261 | 0.720 | 1.360 | 5.29 | 0.165 | 90.57 | 67.0% |
| Lewis | 0.407 | 5.76 | 0.358 | 6.00 | 0.249 | 0.742 | 1.810 | 5.74 | 0.095 | 95.64 | 63.2% |
| Pomeranz | 0.278 | 2.12 | 0.335 | 3.49 | 0.285 | 0.778 | 1.130 | 1.90 | 0.111 | 53.75 | 62.0% |
| Matzek | 0.099 | 3.38 | 0.209 | 2.08 | 0.213 | 0.642 | 0.710 | 2.57 | 0.269 | 81.00 | 74.1% |
| Ryu | 0.332 | 3.65 | 0.283 | 2.93 | 0.300 | 0.836 | 1.270 | 3.33 | 0.141 | 95.58 | 65.5% |
| Ross | 0.290 | 3.30 | 0.287 | 2.90 | 0.232 | 0.671 | 1.250 | 2.97 | 0.139 | 98.50 | 61.9% |
| Young | 0.307 | 3.12 | 0.321 | 4.50 | 0.219 | 0.617 | 1.250 | 3.68 | 0.01 | 91.31 | 61.2% |
Starting Pitcher Salaries
Click the image below to view pitcher salaries by each daily fantasy site along with their percent of top statistics.
- Percent of Top (Top) – Player salary divided by the most expensive pitcher each day. So if Felix Hernandez is $9,000 on FanDuel and Justin Verlander is $4,500, Verlanders Top stat would be 50.
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