Daily Pitcher Breakdown: June 17th, 2013

by PSporer Last Updated 2013-06-17 19:59:34

Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown. I will focus on the top selections of the day and give you a breakdown on why they are set up for success against their given opponent. Sometimes there will be a best of the rest section featuring guys who are likely low-dollar options with some upside for those of you who prefer to load your lineup with hitting studs.

There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.

LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in White are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE

View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ

Performance and Talent Statistics: June 17th, 2013

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STARTING PITCHER BREAKDOWN

Here is a look at the day’s slate of arms and how they might stack in their given matchups.

THE CREAM OF THE CROP:

Patrick Corbin, ARI (v .MIA) – Corbin has a 2.28 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 19% K rate, and 6% BB rate over 86.7 innings against a mix of competition and now he gets the weakest hitting team in baseball. Although in fairness the Marlins have been the 15th-ranked team by OPS in June and that’s despite Marcell Ozuna posting a meager 594 OPS in his 53 at-bats. Nevertheless, their surge doesn’t do anything to dissuade from me Corbin. Stanton is back and he’s been great, but even when the season started we weren’t fearful of the Marlins so there’s no need to be now just because they’re once again whole.

James Shields, KC (at CLE) – I generally avoid the Indians with mediocre or worse arms, but Shields is obviously quite a bit better and he’s worth considering against anyone, but also – and perhaps more importantly – the Indians are in a bit of a skid right now. Through the first month and a half they had eight guys carrying an 800 or better OPS against righties including Carlos Santana (992) and Mark Reynolds (934) up over 900 as full-timers. In the subsequent month the team has really slid, but especially Reynolds, who is down to 465 over his last 78 PA v. RHP. Jason Kipnis (801) is the only regular toting a better than 800 OPS and it is being driven by walks (410 OBP) as opposed to power (391 SLG). After scoring 4.9 runs per game through May, they are down to 3.7 in June.

Shelby Miller, STL (v. CHC) – Miller gave up just eight earned in his first eight outings. Since then he’s allowed 12 earned in his last five, but let’s not pretend he is struggling. He still has a more-than-passable 3.60 ERA along with a 28% strikeout rate and 4% walk rate in 30 innings of work. In other words, even his “struggles” still yield incredible results. On the season the Cubs have a 727 OPS against righties (15th), but they have been markedly worse in the last month with a 656 mark that sits just 23rd overall. Miller is increasing his changeup usage month over month starting at just 1.4% in April before moving to 3.4% in May and now up to 5.8% in June. If the changeup can become a reliable 12-15% usage pitch, Miller could become unstoppable.

Max Scherzer, DET (v. BAL) – Back on May 31st Scherzer tamed the high-flying offense of the Orioles allowing just three runs on three hits and two walks in eight strong innings. He also struck out 10 batters and that’s against the team with the third-lowest strikeout rate against righties (well the second-lowest that he can face since the lowest is his own team). In fact, he has at least six strikeouts in each of his 13 outings this year. The only real downside here is that Scherzer is at top dollar cost and while he is one of the best arms in the game, there is still risk against the Orioles in a one-off outing.

BEST OF THE REST:

Jason Vargas, LAA(v. SEA) – Known for being great at home, Vargas has seen his success start to travel as well as he now has eight quality starts in his last 10 including three on the road. He has a 3.10 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, and 2.1 K/BB ratio spanning 69.7 IP during the run. That includes a trip to Seattle to see his former teammates and shut them down handily for eight innings during which he allowed just two runs on six hits and two walks while fanning seven. His changeup has been particularly effective this year holding opponents to a 578 OPS and on that April 28th outing in Seattle, it held the Mariners to an 0-for-9 night with four of the seven strikeouts. Look for a heavy dose of the change on Monday evening, too.

Dan Straily, OAK (at TEX) – Straily’s most recent run was spurred by a start in Texas during which he dropped seven shutout innings on them allowing just two hits with five strikeouts. That began his current five start run during which he’s thrown at least six innings in each outing while posting a 2.20 ERA and 0.77 WHIP over 32.7 IP. This will be his third outing against the Rangers, who have found themselves knocked down a bit from their usually lofty perch offensively. They ended May fourth in the league against right handers only to sputter through the first half of June with a paltry 610 OPS against them that ranks 27th overall. They’ve lost six straight and they are 2-8 in their last 10. He has just a 16% K rate during his run, but that’s paired with a sparkling 5.0 K/BB rate.

Francisco Liriano, PIT (at CIN) – If you’ve ever owned Liriano on your fantasy team, you’re no doubt fearful at this point. We are now seven starts deep and Liriano has shown so much as a crack in the armor, well no more than any other start would face from time-to-time. He has a stunning 2.9 K/BB ratio thanks to a 9.5% BB rate, which is actually low for him. For as sharp as the Reds have been this year with their 42-28 record and +63 run differential, they aren’t too strong against southpaws. In fact, Liriano handled them just a few weeks ago on June 1st striking out 11 in just six innings of work during which he allowed one runs, four hits, and one walk. Liriano is still bargain priced at some outlets so keep an eye out, though keep in mind that his Pirates won’t have it easy…

Mike Leake, CIN (v. PIT) – Leake has some trouble in his first two outings of the season allowing nine runs over 12 innings including five to these Pirates, but he was toe-to-toe with Liriano on that June 1st outing and he tossed six shutout innings scattered seven hits and a walk while fanning five en route to the win. Liriano’s strikeout edge earned him the nod over Leake, though the split between the two is minuscule given that Leake gets to face the lesser lineup. The real problem with picking either is that they will be hard pressed to pull the win given their counterpart so be mindful of that at sites that reward heavily for Ws.

Tim Hudson, ATL (v. NYM) – Huddy is on fire this June with a 1.66 ERA and 0.65 WHIP in 21.7 innings over three starts. While it has come against weak competition – the Nationals, Dodgers, and Padres – he’s facing another tomato can in the Mets who actually have the worst OPS against righties of the four teams at 655. They are down to a 615 in June. The unfortunate thing is that Hudson is actually 0-2 during the stretch and if he’s not pulling down wins then he loses some value compared to the other studs because he doesn’t bring strikeout firepower, either. He has just 16 during the June run, good for a 21% rate which is healthy for him, but just above league average overall. Hudson’s biggest appeal right now is his price. At sites using multiple pitcher formats, he makes a great secondary option behind an ace.

Travis Wood, CHC (at STL) – Still waiting for the other shoe to drop with Wood? We are now 13 starts deep and I doubt the bottom is just going to magically fall out. While there isn’t a new pitch or increased velocity to hang Wood’s success on, he has shifted his pitch mix some (taking from the fastball and adding to both the cutter and slider) while also sharply improving the command of his fastball. He had the Cardinals twisted in knots back on May 7th when he allowed just one run – an Allen Craig home run – in 6.7 innings of work scattering five other hits and two walks, posting a season-high eight strikeouts. Though a flyball pitcher who has always had home run issues in the past, Wood has used his flyball tendencies in his favor this year by inducing a career-high 14% infield flyball rate which has contributed heavily to his obscenely low .214 BABIP – an MLB-best. That will go up, but not all at once.

Bud Norris, HOU (v. CWS) – This is what I wrote about Norris on June 11th: “Since getting pummeled by the Tigers back on May 13, Norris has run off a four-start stretch with a 1.73 ERA in 26 innings. The run includes outings against the Angels (2), Rockies (3), and Orioles (5) – all top five offenses against righties the last month. Now he gets the 15th-ranked offense in the Mariners.” And then he threw another seven innings allowing three runs on five hits and a walk. He also struck out six batters. And now he gets the 26th-ranked offense in the White Sox.

USE CAUTION:

Dillon Gee, NYM (at ATL) – After an abysmal start to his season, Gee has been on fire of late and though it wasn’t his best statistically, his last start was easily the best of his mini-run given the competition. He held the Cards to just one run – an Allen Craig homer (he can commiserate with Wood) – in 6.7 innings with seven punchouts giving him 21 innings of 1.29 ERA and 1.05 WHIP along with 26 Ks and just three walks. Facing the Braves he has a great chance at another big strikeout game and he will be looking to rebound from the five run shellacking they served him in five innings in the start just before he ran off this trio of gems.

Jose Quintana, CWS (at HOU) – As rough as the Astros have been this year, they excel against lefties with the sixth-ranked OPS (769), though they do still whiff 25% of the time so don’t instantly buy Quintana assuming he’s got a cakewalk offense to steamroll. Quintana’s been fine this year, but certainly nothing special. If Quintana is able to solve the Stros, he should approach his season-high of seven strikeouts without issue. Even as they knocked Hector Santiago around for three runs with nine base runners in 5.3 innings, he still managed eight strikeouts.

Josh Johnson, TOR (v. COL) – Johnson hasn’t found his footing with his new ballclub just yet. Granted he has just six starts thanks to an injury that robbed him of May, but he’s yet to really show the ace-caliber arm we’ve seen in the past. He’s had glimpses of greatness in his two good starts, but nothing substantial. He gets the Rockies who come in wounded with Troy Tulowitzki on the shelf, but that remains a potent offense even without him. Of course, being on the road has always been problematic for them regardless of who is suiting up. After a big April of road work, they’ve fallen back into old habits posting a 662 road OPS since May 1st (23rd in the league).

John Lannan, PHI (v. WAS) – Lannan returns from injury and though he has just three starts so far, he’s been great in two and poor in one. Now he’s gets his weak-hitting former teammates, who top only the Marlins in OPS against lefties at 621. His terribly sad 12% career strikeout rate doesn’t inspire too much confidence though, and keeps his scoring down even when he does have a big start.

Jorge de la Rosa, COL (at TOR) – I’m skeptical of DLR in this spot. He’s facing a powerful offense in their friendly home environment and he’s started to falter a bit of late allowing 41 hits in his last 34.7 innings with a modest 25 strikeouts as well. He’s gone fewer than six innings in four of the six starts during the run, too. There are just too many more worthy options, even though he’s still coming at a very friendly price.

Jacob Turner, MIA (at ARI) – I’m wary of Turner’s results as his 1.80 ERA and 1.05 WHIP are sparsely supported by a 17% K rate and 9% BB rate. His 55% groundball rate is excellent, but there is still a lot to prove for Turner.

Aaron Harang, SEA (at LAA) – This is what I said before Harang’s June 11th start: “He has: a shutout against San Diego, eight earned in Texas, a gem against Baltimore, seven earned in LA, gems in Pittsburgh and Minnesota, and most recently six earned at home against the Yankees. Do you really want to roll these dice? Good luck with all of that.” Whoops. And yet, you still couldn’t pay me to start him. He’s given up 12 runs in 6.7 innings in two starts against the Angels this year.

YOU CAN SAFELY IGNORE:

• Dan Haren, WAS (at PHI)
• Nick Tepesch, TEX (v. OAK)
• Edinson Volquez, SD (at SF)
• Barry Zito, SF (v. SD)
• Carlos Carrasco, CLE (v. KC)
• Jake Arrieta, BAL (at DET)

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PARK FACTORS: June 17th, 2013

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Starting Pitcher Salaries: June 17th, 2013

Shown below are starting pitcher salaries as well as the percent of top statistics.

• Percent of Top (Top) – Player salary divided by the most expensive pitcher each day. So if Felix Hernandez is $9,000 on FanDuel and Justin Verlander is $4,500, Verlanders Top stat would be 50.

1) Percent Top in Red are the most expensive. Between 80% and 100% of the most expensive pitcher each day for each site.
2) Percent Top in Yellow cost between 60% and 80% of the most expensive pitcher each day for each site.
3) Percent Top in Green cost between 40% and 60% of the most expensive pitcher each day for each site.
4) Percent Top in Blue are the cheapest pitchers each day and are 40% or lower than the most expensive pitcher each day for each site.