Daily Pitcher Breakdown: June 27th
The Daily Pitcher Breakdown goes in-depth to look at nearly every pitching option, with a focus on the best targets for each night. Sometimes there will be a best of the rest section featuring guys who are likely low-dollar options with some upside for those of you who prefer to load your lineup with hitting studs.
There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in White are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ
Daily Pitcher Chart
| Pitcher | TM | OPP | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roark | WAS | CHC | 88.1 | 2.85 | 3.70 | 1.10 | 61.5% | 19.3% | 5.6% | 0.71 | 1.28 |
| Hammel | CHC | WAS | 89.1 | 3.02 | 3.21 | 1.02 | 46.2% | 24.0% | 5.4% | 0.71 | 1.09 |
| Workman | BOS | NYY | 34.1 | 2.88 | 3.93 | 1.03 | 25.0% | 20.4% | 8.8% | 0.52 | 1.15 |
| Nuno | NYY | BOS | 61 | 5.90 | 4.26 | 1.48 | 20.0% | 17.3% | 7.5% | 1.77 | 0.97 |
| Degrom | NYM | PIT | 41 | 4.39 | 4.34 | 1.46 | 33.3% | 19.3% | 10.2% | 1.10 | 1.07 |
| Cumpton | PIT | NYM | 38.2 | 5.82 | 4.13 | 1.54 | 33.3% | 13.6% | 5.1% | 0.23 | 1.94 |
| Odorizzi | TBR | BAL | 70.1 | 4.73 | 3.42 | 1.38 | 30.8% | 26.4% | 9.1% | 0.90 | 0.84 |
| Tillman | BAL | TBR | 84 | 4.82 | 4.74 | 1.49 | 35.7% | 15.4% | 9.3% | 1.07 | 0.99 |
| Teheran | ATL | PHI | 105 | 2.31 | 3.66 | 0.93 | 78.6% | 20.6% | 5.2% | 0.94 | 0.87 |
| Kendrick | PHI | ATL | 88.1 | 3.97 | 4.47 | 1.34 | 25.0% | 14.4% | 7.1% | 1.02 | 1.30 |
| Danks | CWS | TOR | 88.1 | 3.97 | 4.66 | 1.32 | 46.2% | 16.3% | 9.2% | 1.02 | 0.87 |
| Dickey | TOR | CWS | 90.1 | 4.08 | 4.44 | 1.40 | 42.9% | 18.0% | 10.0% | 1.10 | 1.17 |
| Chavez | OAK | MIA | 86 | 2.93 | 3.45 | 1.20 | 53.8% | 21.7% | 5.9% | 0.94 | 1.31 |
| Desclafani | MIA | OAK | 17.2 | 5.60 | 3.92 | 1.28 | 50.0% | 18.4% | 4.0% | 1.53 | 0.68 |
| Correia | MIN | TEX | 78.1 | 5.29 | 4.67 | 1.49 | 30.8% | 11.6% | 4.7% | 0.92 | 1.05 |
| Tepesch | TEX | MIN | 32 | 3.94 | 4.56 | 1.38 | 20.0% | 16.9% | 9.6% | 1.41 | 1.05 |
| Verlander | DET | HOU | 97.2 | 4.98 | 4.69 | 1.56 | 35.7% | 15.8% | 9.4% | 0.74 | 1.02 |
| Peacock | HOU | DET | 66 | 4.50 | 4.50 | 1.53 | 33.3% | 20.6% | 13.0% | 0.95 | 1.15 |
| Shoemaker | LAA | KCR | 42.1 | 3.83 | 2.88 | 1.14 | 20.0% | 25.7% | 5.1% | 1.49 | 1.26 |
| Vargas | KCR | LAA | 99.2 | 3.25 | 4.11 | 1.22 | 71.4% | 17.2% | 6.0% | 0.99 | 1.03 |
| Matzek | COL | MIL | 12 | 3.75 | 4.27 | 1.42 | 100.0% | 13.5% | 3.9% | 0.00 | 1.21 |
| Lohse | MIL | COL | 102 | 3.09 | 3.83 | 1.02 | 53.8% | 17.5% | 4.1% | 0.88 | 1.14 |
| Martinez | STL | LAD | 38.2 | 4.19 | 3.84 | 1.34 | 19.0% | 11.0% | 0.47 | 2.11 | |
| Ryu | LAD | STL | 76.1 | 3.18 | 3.59 | 1.22 | 58.3% | 20.1% | 5.3% | 0.59 | 1.28 |
| McCarthy | ARI | SDP | 92 | 5.18 | 3.04 | 1.35 | 28.6% | 20.1% | 4.4% | 1.47 | 2.44 |
| Ross | SDP | ARI | 93.2 | 3.27 | 3.49 | 1.33 | 57.1% | 22.6% | 10.0% | 0.86 | 2.60 |
| Bauer | CLE | SEA | 40.2 | 4.20 | 3.67 | 1.42 | 50.0% | 24.0% | 9.1% | 1.11 | 0.96 |
| Young | SEA | CLE | 79.1 | 3.40 | 5.82 | 1.23 | 41.7% | 12.4% | 10.0% | 1.25 | 0.43 |
| Cueto | CIN | SFG | 108 | 1.92 | 2.86 | 0.83 | 85.7% | 26.8% | 6.3% | 0.67 | 1.64 |
| Bumgarner | SFG | CIN | 94.2 | 2.85 | 2.93 | 1.20 | 57.1% | 26.5% | 5.9% | 0.76 | 1.34 |
Here is a look at the day’s slate of arms and how they might stack in their given matchups.
If a guy isn’t listed, he’s just kind of a neutral option – I’m not using him, but I’m not stacking against him, either.
BEST BUYS:
These aren’t just low-cost guys with good matchups and/or venues, but you will also find expensive studs in here with great matchups.
Julio Teheran, ATL (at PHI) – Teheran has already decimated the Phillies twice this year including an 8 IP/1 ER effort back on June 16th. The other start was a shutout on April 16th. Teheran has been excellent all year, though the strikeouts lagged a bit early on, but he’s remedied that with 68 in his last 69 IP since May 1st. He also has a 3.00 ERA and 0.97 WHIP in that span and the ERA is only that high because of his 7 ER in Coors (he has a 2.30 ERA in the other nine starts).
Johnny Cueto CIN (at SF) – He leads baseball in ERA and WHIP and he’s striking out over a batter per inning. It’s absurd that he’s just 7-5 (thanks Cincy offense and bullpen!). The only reason he’s second is because he’s sure to cost more than Teheran and if you can save a few bucks for near-equal values, I’d lean toward the cheaper arm, plus the Phillies are worse than the Giants.
Madison Bumgarner SF (v. CIN) – MadBum still hasn’t allowed more than 4 ER in a single start this year and he’s been steamrolling the competition since the start of May after a shaky April. He has a 2.09 ERA and 0.86 WHIP in his 10 starts since the beginning of May with 74 strikeouts and just 12 walks in 69 IP of work. He allowed 7+ hits in four of his six April starts, but that has happened just twice in these last 10 outings.
Jesse Chavez OAK (at MIA) – I think a lot of folks were waiting for the bottom to fall out on Chavez, alas here he is 15 starts in with a 2.71 ERA. He bounces back from every hiccup with a strong effort. I do worry a little about how he will hold up throughout the entire season because he’s never logged a full starter’s workload, but that won’t start to be a major issue (if it is at all) until August and September. Meanwhile, the Marlins have stopped being the ’27 Yankees at home with a .269 wOBA at home against righties this month – baseball’s second-lowest total.
Hyun-Jin Ryu LAD (v. STL) – Ryu has become about as bankable as a pitcher gets these days. He’ll toss the occasional dud as any pitcher will, but he has developed into a remarkably trustworthy arm. He has 11 starts of 3 ER of fewer including nine gems (6+ IP/2 or fewer ER) in his 14 total starts.
Tyson Ross SD (v. ARI) – On the end of the consistency spectrum is someone like Ross. He’s not as reliable as Ryu, but he can also go out and give you that game-changing outing with seven or eight strong innings and a ton of strikeouts. His volatility pushes his price down a little bit, too, which only adds to the intrigue. He’s been dominant at home with a 2.36 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, and 3.5 K:BB ratio in 53.3 IP.
Kyle Lohse MIL (v. COL) – He was ripped in Pittsburgh for 8 ER, but he has responded nicely with three solid starts, all of which were also on the road. He posted a 2.84 ERA in 19 IP at the Mets, D’Backs, and Rockies, but now he returns home where he has a 2.23 ERA, 0.81 WHIP, and 17.5 K:BB ratio in 44.3 IP. The Rockies go from 1st to 22nd in wOBA when hitting the road.
Justin Verlander DET (at HOU) – It feels weird seeing Verlander’s price this low, but it’s deserved as he simply hasn’t been that good this year. Alas, I loved what I saw out of him in Cleveland and a trip to Houston gives him a great chance to stay hot. There will some trepidation and I’m sure several daily players have given up on him entirely, but with the sinking price and a better-but-still-not-good Astros lineup, he’s ripe for the picking.
Jake Odorizzi TB (at BAL) – Odorizzi was saddled with a 6.85 ERA in five April starts despite opening the season with a 6 IP/0 ER gem against Texas (imagine how bad the other four were), but since then he has a 3.17 ERA in 10 starts with an impressive 69 strikeouts in 54 IP. I think he can be trusted even in a tough matchup like this one because of the high strikeout totals and the fact that he keeps the ball in the yard.
VALUE PLAYS:
These are guys aren’t inherently good buys, but they have a nice matchup and they’re likely to be very cheap so you can save with them and take the gamble that they come through with a strong effort.
Brandon Cumpton PIT (v. NYM) – Don’t let the ERA fool you, it’s grossly inflated by that disaster outing in LA where he allowed 10 ER which accounts for 40% of his ER this year. He’s been pretty solid in June with a 3.09 ERA in 23.3 IP. While the component numbers aren’t eye-popping (16 K, 7 BB), they don’t have to be for him to easily earn his bargain-bin price. The Mets are having what qualifies for them as a good month offensively and they are still only 16th in wOBA against righties at .305.
Brandon Workman BOS (at NYY) – Returning from suspension, Workman hasn’t thrown since June 15th, but he’s looking to earn his keep in the rotation with the returns of Clay Buchholz and Felix Doubront. In five starts he has a 3.21 ERA and 1.07 WHIP in 28 innings. He’s given batters fits, holding them to a .190 AVG as a starter, thanks in large part to his cutter and curve that have allowed just nine hits in 60 AB (.150 AVG). He’s also going deeper into games with his first 100-pitch effort last time against Cleveland.
Brandon McCarthy ARI (at SD) – I know, I know… I keep giving him chances, but this is the last one, I swear!! The Padres are so horrible and if McCarthy can’t turn his sharp skills (4.4 K:BB ratio, FIP is 1.30 better than his ERA) into another quality outing against them (7 IP/0 ER back on May 3rd in SD) at their spacious ballpark, then I must swear off of him forever!!! (or until he runs off a few good starts and I invariably get sucked back in).
Matt Shoemaker LAA (at KC) – I’ve been impressed with Shoemaker so far, particularly with his strikeout rate as I didn’t see that kind of capability in him as a starter. He’s facing the toughest team in baseball to strikeout, but he did get them for six punchouts in five innings back on May 24th. The one chink his armor has been the home run rate, but that’s mostly done in his relief work as he allowed four of his seven in eight relief innings. Plus, the Royals are the last team to exploit a home run weakness with a league-low 45 home runs.
Trevor Bauer CLE (at SEA) – We’ve seen improvements from Bauer which are encouraging, but I think some jumped the gun on thinking he had arrived after just a couple strong starts. He still has command issues, but he is just 23 years old so there’s time. Of course, time and the future don’t matter to us daily gamers, but I think Bauer can hang in there against a Mariners offense that isn’t particularly scary. They’ve been playing better of late, but they still are nowhere a team you’d need to avoid with pitchers.
STAYAWAYS:
These guys should just be avoided either because of their matchup, talent-level, or both. These guys are often the ones you’ll want to stack against if you use that method.
- John Danks CWS (at TOR)
- Tyler Matzek COL (at MIL)
- Anthony Desclafani MIA (v. OAK)
- Nick Tepesch TEX (v. MIN)
- Vidal Nuno NYY (v. BOS)
Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against
| Pitcher | wOBA vs L | ERA vs L | wOBA vs R | ERA vs R | AVG | OPS | BABIP | FIP | AVG-A | Pit/G | Strk% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roark | 0.278 | 3.15 | 0.243 | 1.69 | 0.223 | 0.640 | 1.100 | 2.85 | 0.137 | 95.71 | 64.3% |
| Hammel | 0.357 | 5.21 | 0.290 | 3.29 | 0.235 | 0.673 | 1.020 | 3.02 | 0.186 | 99.86 | 64.2% |
| Workman | 0.290 | 4.46 | 0.304 | 3.58 | 0.247 | 0.684 | 1.020 | 2.88 | 0.117 | 64.88 | 63.4% |
| Nuno | 0.352 | 6.75 | 0.345 | 4.59 | 0.248 | 0.700 | 1.480 | 5.90 | 0.098 | 72.43 | 64.7% |
| Degrom | 0.354 | 5.60 | 0.341 | 3.57 | 0.258 | 0.715 | 1.460 | 4.39 | 0.091 | 99.71 | 62.0% |
| Cumpton | 0.345 | 5.20 | 0.267 | 3.54 | 0.224 | 0.646 | 1.530 | 5.82 | 0.085 | 88.86 | 65.8% |
| Odorizzi | 0.336 | 4.58 | 0.300 | 4.53 | 0.263 | 0.723 | 1.380 | 4.73 | 0.173 | 95.57 | 63.1% |
| Tillman | 0.336 | 4.35 | 0.314 | 3.71 | 0.247 | 0.692 | 1.490 | 4.82 | 0.061 | 97.87 | 63.0% |
| Teheran | 0.315 | 3.61 | 0.268 | 2.29 | 0.234 | 0.653 | 0.930 | 2.31 | 0.154 | 97.93 | 66.6% |
| Kendrick | 0.331 | 4.31 | 0.329 | 4.62 | 0.238 | 0.659 | 1.340 | 3.97 | 0.073 | 100.14 | 62.9% |
| Danks | 0.337 | 4.21 | 0.337 | 4.58 | 0.250 | 0.744 | 1.310 | 3.97 | 0.071 | 105.29 | 62.1% |
| Dickey | 0.333 | 4.32 | 0.311 | 4.08 | 0.261 | 0.733 | 1.390 | 4.08 | 0.08 | 103.53 | 63.8% |
| Chavez | 0.314 | 3.49 | 0.258 | 3.16 | 0.256 | 0.722 | 1.200 | 2.93 | 0.159 | 97.21 | 67.7% |
| Desclafani | 0.331 | 6.00 | 0.352 | 5.19 | 0.256 | 0.754 | 1.250 | 5.60 | 0.145 | 93.67 | 68.3% |
| Correia | 0.351 | 4.64 | 0.348 | 4.43 | 0.257 | 0.689 | 1.480 | 5.29 | 0.07 | 90.79 | 61.9% |
| Tepesch | 0.358 | 5.30 | 0.317 | 3.86 | 0.246 | 0.705 | 1.380 | 3.94 | 0.074 | 90.50 | 61.7% |
| Verlander | 0.301 | 3.42 | 0.347 | 4.76 | 0.229 | 0.681 | 1.560 | 4.98 | 0.064 | 111.60 | 62.3% |
| Peacock | 0.362 | 5.74 | 0.304 | 3.93 | 0.276 | 0.765 | 1.530 | 4.50 | 0.075 | 81.14 | 61.1% |
| Shoemaker | 0.351 | 4.23 | 0.199 | 2.29 | 0.268 | 0.695 | 1.130 | 3.83 | 0.206 | 59.09 | 63.1% |
| Vargas | 0.331 | 3.18 | 0.324 | 3.95 | 0.264 | 0.763 | 1.210 | 3.25 | 0.111 | 104.67 | 64.1% |
| Matzek | 0.345 | 5.40 | 0.296 | 3.24 | 0.238 | 0.698 | 1.420 | 3.75 | 0.096 | 86.50 | 69.4% |
| Lohse | 0.307 | 3.68 | 0.286 | 2.93 | 0.280 | 0.783 | 1.020 | 3.09 | 0.134 | 99.80 | 66.7% |
| Martinez | 0.390 | 6.91 | 0.262 | 3.05 | 0.270 | 0.760 | 1.320 | 4.19 | 0.08 | 18.23 | 61.9% |
| Ryu | 0.327 | 3.52 | 0.283 | 2.92 | 0.233 | 0.650 | 1.220 | 3.18 | 0.147 | 96.31 | 65.7% |
| McCarthy | 0.338 | 4.54 | 0.345 | 5.08 | 0.218 | 0.616 | 1.350 | 5.18 | 0.157 | 90.40 | 67.0% |
| Ross | 0.304 | 3.61 | 0.285 | 2.85 | 0.257 | 0.706 | 1.320 | 3.27 | 0.125 | 99.20 | 61.2% |
| Bauer | 0.345 | 3.52 | 0.342 | 5.35 | 0.234 | 0.678 | 1.400 | 4.20 | 0.149 | 101.14 | 63.6% |
| Young | 0.297 | 2.82 | 0.315 | 4.28 | 0.264 | 0.753 | 1.220 | 3.40 | 0.024 | 91.07 | 61.4% |
| Cueto | 0.233 | 1.85 | 0.254 | 2.59 | 0.253 | 0.708 | 0.830 | 1.92 | 0.205 | 108.20 | 64.4% |
| Bumgarner | 0.239 | 1.99 | 0.286 | 3.08 | 0.229 | 0.647 | 1.19 | 2.85 | 0.206 | 102.13 | 65.6% |
Starting Pitcher Salaries
Click the image below to view pitcher salaries by each daily fantasy site along with their percent of top statistics.
- Percent of Top (Top) – Player salary divided by the most expensive pitcher each day. So if Felix Hernandez is $9,000 on FanDuel and Justin Verlander is $4,500, Verlanders Top stat would be 50.
NOTE: Button for pitcher salary chart above opens in popup window