Daily Pitcher Breakdown: May 10th

by PSporer Last Updated 2014-05-10 22:42:39

The Daily Pitcher Breakdown goes in-depth to look at nearly every pitching option, with a focus on the best targets for each night. Sometimes there will be a best of the rest section featuring guys who are likely low-dollar options with some upside for those of you who prefer to load your lineup with hitting studs.

There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.

Editor’s Note: Apologies for the late posting time today. Blame Ethan, not Sporer for that one.

LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in White are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE

View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ

Daily Pitcher Chart

Pitcher	TM	OPP	IP	ERA	SIERA	WHIP	GEM%	K%	BB%	HR/9	G/F
McHugh	HOU	BAL	19.1	2.79	2.59	0.89	66.7%	30.7%	5.3%	0.00	0.68
Gonzalez	BAL	HOU	30.2	5.28	4.11	1.56		20.3%	8.7%	1.47	0.79
Lynn	STL	PIT	41	3.51	3.40	1.24	42.9%	25.4%	8.5%	0.88	1.07
Volquez	PIT	STL	38.2	4.19	4.31	1.15	50.0%	13.3%	5.7%	1.16	1.51
McAllister	CLE	TBR	39.2	3.18	3.76	1.22	57.1%	21.7%	7.8%	0.23	1.02
Bedard	TBR	CLE	20.2	4.35	5.37	1.68	25.0%	13.5%	11.5%	0.00	0.70
Kendrick	PHI	NYM	37.2	3.58	4.20	1.42	33.3%	13.7%	6.0%	1.43	1.68
Gee	NYM	PHI	46.2	2.51	4.25	1.06	57.1%	17.4%	7.6%	0.96	1.06
Lyles	COL	CIN	44.2	2.62	3.78	1.06	71.4%	13.6%	5.7%	0.40	2.81
Simon	CIN	COL	40.2	1.99	4.52	0.97	83.3%	13.8%	7.5%	0.89	1.43
Samardzija	CHC	ATL	50	1.62	3.69	1.12	85.7%	19.0%	7.5%	0.36	2.00
Santana	ATL	CHC	33.2	2.41	2.82	1.05	60.0%	27.3%	6.1%	0.53	1.52
Sabathia	NYY	MIL	40.2	5.75	2.89	1.47	28.6%	24.0%	4.9%	1.55	1.97
Lohse	MIL	NYY	46.1	2.72	3.53	1.11	57.1%	22.0%	6.3%	0.78	1.10
Miley	ARI	CWS	49	5.14	3.97	1.31	25.0%	19.5%	8.8%	1.29	1.53
Quintana	CWS	ARI	43	3.56	3.70	1.21	57.1%	20.0%	6.9%	0.84	1.50
Lester	BOS	TEX	48.2	2.59	2.55	1.10	71.4%	30.1%	5.2%	0.55	1.00
Perez	TEX	BOS	47.2	3.59	3.85	1.19	42.9%	16.9%	8.2%	0.38	2.41
Eovaldi	MIA	SDP	45.1	2.78	2.63	1.00	57.1%	25.1%	3.4%	0.60	1.69
Stults	SDP	MIA	33.1	5.40	4.81	1.78	14.3%	9.7%	4.5%	1.89	1.26
Roark	WAS	OAK	36.2	4.17	3.69	1.27	50.0%	20.1%	6.5%	0.98	1.31
Gray	OAK	WAS	47	1.91	3.51	1.17	71.4%	20.8%	8.3%	0.38	2.31
Ventura	KCR	SEA	36	2.00	2.90	1.03	50.0%	28.1%	7.5%	0.50	1.50
Young	SEA	KCR	29.2	3.03	6.20	1.27	40.0%	12.2%	13.0%	1.21	0.45

Here is a look at the day’s slate of arms and how they might stack in their given matchups.
(A bit of an abbreviated version on the weekends focused more on who to get both in the best buys and the more risky value plays)

BEST BUYS:

These aren’t just low-cost guys with good matchups and/or venues, but you will also find expensive studs in here with great matchups. An ace facing another ace won’t find his way in here because the win probability for both is sliced significantly by facing each other.

Nathan Eovaldi MIA (at SD) – This one is paint-by-numbers… although so was Jose Fernandez here last night. I’d be surprised if the Padres offense that has a .256 wOBA against righties (baseball’s worst by far) could muster back-to-back strong nights.

Yordano Ventura, KC (at SEA) – Heat has burned the M’s this year with a meager .256 wOBA against pitches 95 MPH or faster. Their .184 AVG against those pitches is third-lowest in the game. Ventura’s strikeout potential also protects him from super-clunkers as he’s likely to fan five or six even if he goes something like 6 IP with 3 or 4 ER.

Jeff Samardzija CHC (at ATL) – I wish Samardzija’s once-excellent strikeout rate would return, but I can’t argue with the brilliant results surrounding the lowered punchout total. The Braves are a much better matchup than you might expect given some of the star power in their lineup. They have a .280 wOBA against righties and just .225 against splitters – Samardzija’s out pitch.

Sonny Gray OAK (v. WAS) – Gray has been fantastic this year and on pure talent he’d be higher on this list, but when you factor in cost, he gets bumped down a little. The Nats are markedly worse against righties than lefties and the venue will only make things tougher.

Dillon Gee NYM (v. PHI) – Gee has had some endurance issues over his career where he really starts to falter after about 75 pitches, but he looks like he might be coming through them a bit having gone well past the 75-pitch mark in each of his last three outings and not giving up a single run once hitting the threshold. He threw six shutout innings in Coors his last time out which should’ve counted as three wins instead of just one given the way they’re playing.

Jose Quintana CWS (v. ARI) – He’s been really good this year especially with a slate that has included two outings against Detroit, one in Texas, and one in Colorado. Only the one in Texas caused him to struggle. The D’Backs come in with the 23rd ranked wOBA against southpaws at .292 and though they have some strong bats in their lineup, Q is a worthwhile bet today.

Ervin Santana ATL (v. CHC) – A jammed thumb has put nine days between starts, but he’s said to be just fine and ready for today’s outing. The Cubs offer an excellent opportunity to stay hot as their 35.7% strikeout rate against sliders is fifth-highest and marries well with Santana’s gaudy 47.6% strikeout rate with the pitch.

Lance Lynn STL (at PIT) – I didn’t realize just how bad things were for Pittsburgh until really looking at the standings the other day and seeing that they are just 15-20. Lynn has had his struggles against the Pirates through his career with a 5.03 ERA, but the 9.4 K/9 and 2.4 K/BB suggest he’s deserved a better fate. The Pirates are a middling offense against righties and Lynn has only allowed more than 3 ER once this season. I’d be comfortable taking a shot with him despite his career work against Pittsburgh.

Jon Lester BOS (at TEX) – He’s been too good to ignore even heading into Texas. That said, there are many other options I’d choose just because the venue and matchup aren’t ideal, while the price is sure to be sky-high because of how excellent he’s been thus far. The cost really robs any upside short of another 50-point outing (on DraftKings) like his last one.

CC Sabathia NYY (at MIL) – The underlying numbers show a much better pitcher, but underlying numbers can only do much for us in a daily game. I love the surge in strikeouts and lowered walk rate, but everything else has been problematic, especially the obscene 21.9% HR/FB rate. That has to come down. Milwaukee has been great this year, but it hasn’t been the offense carrying them… especially the offense missing Ryan Braun and toting a struggling Aramis Ramirez, Khris Davis, Jean Segura, and Mark Reynolds.

VALUE PLAYS:

These are guys aren’t inherently good buys, but they have a nice matchup and they’re likely to be very cheap so you can save with them and take the gamble that they come through with a strong effort.

Eric Stults SD (v. MIA) – The Marlins just melt into a horrifically bad offense on the road. Meanwhile, Stults does all of his best work at home (4.02 ERA, 3.5 K/BB compared to 6.62 ERA, 1.6 K/BB on the road). The pure numbers are garbage, but the matchup is right to save a bundle and take a shot on Stults.

Alfredo Simon CIN (v. COL) – But he’s facing the Rockies! Well they have a Marlins like morph once they hit the road, too, going from 1st to 24th in wOBA against righties once venues shift. You’re more likely to see a stack against Simon than someone using him, but this could be a chance to get a leg up with an underused asset who has a good chance to succeed. There’s plenty of risk because of that potent lineup, but their .280 wOBA on the road mitigates some of the risk.

Miguel Gonzalez BAL (v. HOU) – Gonzalez was popped for 7 ER in his season debut, but since then he has a respectable 3.62 ERA over his last five starts with 27 Ks in 27.3 IP. The Astros are always a matchup to consider almost regardless of pitcher, but Gonzalez actually has some discernible talent to get behind making him even more interesting.

Erik Bedard TB (v. CLE) – Only MIA is worse than CLE on the road against lefties (and CLE is second-worst regardless of home or away) so this makes Bedard a similar to play to Stults where the talent of the pitcher isn’t terribly inspiring, but the matchup is nice and the price is so enticing.

Kyle Kendrick PHI (at NYM) – A lot of today’s value plays don’t really inspire much by way of talent, but the matchups are too juicy to ignore. Kendrick isn’t special, but he’s also only allowed more than 3 ER just once (and it was only 4 ER). The Mets are anemic.

Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against

Pitcher	wOBA vs L	ERA vs L	wOBA vs R	ERA vs R	AVG	OPS	BABIP	FIP	AVG-A	Pit/G	Strk%
McHugh	0.343	5.68	0.390	8.55	0.273	0.716	0.277	1.51	0.186	96.00	66.7%
Gonzalez	0.306	3.51	0.342	4.48	0.207	0.659	0.333	4.87	0.285	92.50	62.0%
Lynn	0.341	5.13	0.286	3.08	0.230	0.659	0.288	3.43	0.225	103.86	63.4%
Volquez	0.371	6.13	0.324	4.86	0.259	0.705	0.246	4.48	0.236	90.83	66.1%
McAllister	0.328	3.88	0.306	3.38	0.259	0.734	0.293	2.60	0.229	95.71	67.0%
Bedard	0.360	4.93	0.332	4.45	0.223	0.647	0.319	3.45	0.271	97.25	62.2%
Kendrick	0.325	4.21	0.341	4.80	0.221	0.628	0.289	4.83	0.274	100.67	61.4%
Gee	0.343	4.11	0.290	2.92	0.243	0.660	0.226	4.03	0.206	98.57	64.2%
Lyles	0.323	5.40	0.352	4.34	0.258	0.714	0.254	3.42	0.226	94.43	62.6%
Simon	0.302	3.18	0.252	2.21	0.291	0.822	0.192	4.34	0.185	94.17	63.5%
Samardzija	0.342	4.22	0.295	3.60	0.226	0.645	0.271	3.07	0.223	108.71	65.4%
Santana	0.303	3.02	0.282	3.33	0.224	0.631	0.291	2.46	0.218	95.40	65.8%
Sabathia	0.290	4.24	0.359	5.18	0.243	0.682	0.361	4.14	0.294	98.71	67.9%
Lohse	0.328	3.95	0.277	2.68	0.246	0.695	0.265	3.26	0.219	102.57	65.6%
Miley	0.324	4.97	0.326	3.64	0.252	0.708	0.281	4.50	0.247	96.50	63.7%
Quintana	0.327	3.41	0.299	3.60	0.244	0.666	0.290	3.53	0.245	102.00	62.6%
Lester	0.297	3.47	0.309	3.58	0.309	0.828	0.328	2.14	0.235	113.71	65.6%
Perez	0.311	2.75	0.318	3.93	0.239	0.722	0.287	3.30	0.243	98.71	61.2%
Eovaldi	0.321	3.76	0.274	2.76	0.212	0.576	0.293	2.51	0.228	99.86	68.5%
Stults	0.259	3.71	0.354	4.26	0.269	0.736	0.357	5.57	0.351	79.00	66.0%
Roark	0.332	4.50	0.202	1.21	0.259	0.757	0.302	3.90	0.255	95.67	62.9%
Gray	0.282	2.62	0.236	1.99	0.233	0.669	0.278	3.05	0.223	104.14	61.2%
Ventura	0.270	2.78	0.273	1.89	0.226	0.656	0.264	2.55	0.194	99.33	65.1%
Young	0.301	2.29	0.284	4.82	0.260	0.693	0.193	5.47	0.196	98.40	59.8%

Starting Pitcher Salaries

Click the image below to view pitcher salaries by each daily fantasy site along with their percent of top statistics.

Percent of Top (Top) – Player salary divided by the most expensive pitcher each day. So if Felix Hernandez is $9,000 on FanDuel and Justin Verlander is $4,500, Verlanders Top stat would be 50.