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Daily Pitcher Breakdown: May 14th, 2013

by PSporer Last Updated 2013-05-14 19:52:14

Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown. I will focus on the top selections of the day and give you a breakdown on why they are set up for success against their given opponent. Sometimes there will be a best of the rest section featuring guys who are likely low-dollar options with some upside for those of you who prefer to load your lineup with hitting studs.

There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.

LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in White are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE

For a description of each stat below and the tiers used for them, check out this pop up window FAQ Page by clicking here

Performance and Talent Statistics: May 14th, 2013

PLAYER PERFORMANCE TALENT
PITCHER TM IP ERA SIERA WHIP GEM% IMP% K% BB% HR/9 G/F
Harrell HOU 44.1 4.67 5.09 1.76 37.5% 25.0% 13.8% 12.8% 1.42 2.20
Fister DET 43 3.14 3.31 1.26 57.1% 14.3% 17.4% 4.2% 0.21 2.89
Lohse MIL 43.1 3.53 3.89 1.20 42.9% 0.0% 17.1% 2.8% 1.25 1.00
Locke PIT 39.2 2.95 5.20 1.21 42.9% 0.0% 13.3% 11.5% 0.91 1.54
Cashner SDP 30.2 3.23 4.40 1.27 50.0% 25.0% 18.9% 11.8% 0.59 1.63
Tillman BAL 40.2 3.76 4.74 1.38 42.9% 28.6% 17.5% 10.5% 1.11 0.86
Kazmir CLE 20.1 4.87 3.06 1.43 50.0% 25.0% 28.4% 6.8% 2.21 0.74
Pettibone PHI 22.1 3.63 4.38 1.39 25.0% 0.0% 14.7% 6.3% 1.61 1.38
Hernandez SEA 58.2 1.53 2.77 0.90 75.0% 0.0% 25.3% 3.6% 0.46 1.68
Sabathia NYY 53 3.23 3.83 1.21 38.0% 12.5% 20.2% 6.0% 1.19 0.97
Zito SFG 39.1 2.75 4.59 1.30 57.1% 14.3% 15.3% 7.4% 0.69 1.00
Dickey TOR 48 5.06 4.58 1.35 37.5% 25.0% 18.6% 10.8% 1.50 1.07
Lackey BOS 22.1 2.82 3.30 1.30 50.0% 0.0% 24.7% 7.2% 1.21 1.45
Moore TBR 42 2.14 4.23 1.17 57.1% 0.0% 24.7% 13.2% 1.29 0.85
Bailey CIN 42.1 3.83 3.42 1.25 57.1% 14.3% 23.9% 8.0% 0.85 1.71
Nolasco MIA 48.1 3.72 4.12 1.16 37.5% 0.0% 17.0% 5.5% 1.12 1.13
Francis COL 30 6.90 4.29 1.77 14.3% 42.9% 16.7% 9.0% 1.50 1.86
Villanueva CHC 47.2 3.02 3.96 1.01 57.1% 0.0% 19.2% 7.7% 0.94 1.53
Peavy CWS 38.2 3.03 2.72 1.06 66.7% 16.7% 29.4% 5.2% 1.63 0.93
Correia MIN 46.2 3.09 4.65 1.20 57.0% 0.0% 10.5% 3.7% 0.77 1.30
Gee NYM 35.2 5.55 4.70 1.60 14.3% 28.6% 13.6% 8.0% 1.26 1.44
Gast 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.00
Teheran ATL 35.1 4.84 4.16 1.53 16.7% 33.3% 14.7% 5.1% 1.53 1.54
Corbin ARI 46.1 1.75 3.79 1.06 100.0% 0.0% 19.6% 6.5% 0.39 1.47
Guthrie KCR 47.1 2.28 4.41 1.18 71.4% 0.0% 15.6% 7.3% 1.33 1.31
Vargas LAA 44.1 4.26 4.83 1.56 29.0% 42.9% 13.7% 8.1% 0.81 1.16
Holland TEX 49.2 2.54 3.42 1.01 71.4% 14.3% 22.2% 5.2% 0.36 1.27
Colon OAK 41.1 4.57 3.77 1.14 28.6% 28.6% 16.3% 0.6% 1.31 1.04
Haren WAS 38.1 5.17 4.23 1.49 28.6% 28.6% 15.6% 3.5% 1.88 0.82
Kershaw LAD 55.2 1.62 3.21 0.90 62.5% 0.0% 26.7% 7.6% 0.65 1.24

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STARTING PITCHER BREAKDOWN

Here is a look at the day’s slate of arms and how they might stack in their given matchups.

THE CREAM OF THE CROP:

clayton kershaw

Clayton Kershaw, LAD (v. WAS) – Honestly, it’s ABC analysis with guys like Kershaw. He’s a superstar facing a mediocre lineup – especially if Bryce Harper is out, though he’s day-to-day after crashing into the wall – and so as we move forward, don’t expect a ton of analysis for these types. I think this column has more value to you if I’m letting you know the mid-tier guys who can pay off or the spots where upper talent can find success even in tough environments against strong lineup.

Felix Hernandez, SEA (at NYY) – This is similar to Kershaw. Felix carries the AL’s best ERA into tonight’s matchup as he hasn’t allowed more than one run in his last five starts. The Yankees have surprised and Yankee Stadium can be trying at times, but Felix is as close to a sure thing as there is in our game.

Doug Fister, DET (v. HOU) – Fister hasn’t quiet been elite this year especially coming off of his last outing where he struggled in Washington, but he has been damn good all season long and there is upside for much more. He is inducing groundballs at a near-60% clip and the flyballs he is allowing are lazy infield flies almost a quarter of the time. That is amazing. I’ve mentioned multiple times that the Astros aren’t slouches, but the fact that they strikeout at such an alarming rate makes it easy to pick against them consistently with guys as talented as Fister. The ‘Stros have a 614 OPS against righty changeups and curves combined, striking out 34% of the time in the process.

CC Sabathia, NYY (v. SEA) – The reason CC is so amazing and reliable is because he’s still one of the AL’s best pitchers even when he is clearly not at his peak level. The skills have eroded a tick early on while the home run rate is up, but he has offset that by leaving more men on base. Seattle shouldn’t be an overwhelming challenge for Sabathia tonight. While they have had some success against lefty sliders, they haven’t really faced one on the level of Sabathia’s. Meanwhile, he can lean on the curveball and changeup if they do get hot to his slider.

jake%20peavy

Jake Peavy, CWS (at MIN) – This is the Peavy of old right now complete with a career-best 29.4% strikeout rate paired with an incredible 5.2% walk rate that is almost tied for his career-best set back in 2011 (5.1%). Virtually his entirely arsenal is clicking on every cylinder right now and he already has a seven inning, one-run gem against these Twins during which he fanned nine. He did walk four, too, but the trouble was limited to the single run.

Derek Holland, TEX (at OAK) – Oakland is sputtering badly, while Holland is in the midst of a crescendo with just one run allowed in his last 15 innings, along with 15 strikeouts and just one walk. Oakland has a paltry 445 OPS against Holland’s two best off-speed pitches, the slider & changeup, during the month of May.

BEST THE REST:

Homer Bailey, CIN (at MIA) – If the pitcher is an above average talent facing the Marlins in Miami, then he is someone to consider as your starter. This lineup is completely neutered without Giancarlo Stanton, scoring just 3.1 runs per game in May. Of course, that is actually up from April’s 2.7, but it’s still horrible. Bailey has had a pair of rough outings, but he is still toting some excellent component rates with a 24% strikeout rate and 8% walk rate in 42.3 innings. I think he rebounds tonight.

matt%20moore

Matt Moore, TB (v. BOS) – If there’s one ace-level pitcher I’m a bit nervous about right now, it’s Moore. This was a guy I adored coming into the season and his results have been there to back it up, but the walks and home runs are a terrifying proposition. Boston rips lefty curveballs – Moore’s best pitch – but they also fans 39% of the time against the pitch so if they can avoid the big trouble, he should find several missed bats in the process.

Patrick Corbin, ARI (v. ATL) – He’s been unquestionably excellent this year thanks in large part to amazing command and that command will serve him especially well tonight against a team known for leaving the yard early and often. He will need to keep the Braves from circling the bases repeatedly to get his 8th straight gem tonight.

Kyle Lohse, MIL (at PIT) – Lohse deserves a better fate than his 1-4 record as his production has been much better, especially when you consider that he missed all of Spring Training. He gets a modest hitting Pirates team

John Lackey, BOS (at TB) – Lackey’s swinging strike rate is at a three-year high sitting at 8.1% after a pair of seasons at 7% and the Rays have been inconsistent at best with their hitting. Lackey has been sharp despite morphing into a bit of a two-pitch pitcher with his fastball-slider carrying 86% of his workload.

USE CAUTION:

scott%20kazmir%20cle

Scott Kazmir, CLE (at PHI) – The stuff appeared back in Spring Training and it looked amazing in his last outing, though both of these are tiny samples so be careful getting overzealous. The Phillies are wretched against southpaws this year with the fifth-worst OPS against them (656).

Andrew Cashner, SD (at BAL) – He’s not a rookie, but he’s essentially a rookie start with this shaping up as his first full year in the rotation so we are getting some up/down inconsistency that we often see with youngsters, even potential studs. Baltimore is sharp against righties and if Cashner isn’t commanding his heater, it’ll leave the yard just as quickly as it reached the plate.

Chris Tillman, BAL (v. SD) – Tillman’s stuff is fantastic when it’s on, but like Cashner he is often inconsistent from start-to-start making it tough to trust him inherently. His secondary stuff was some of the best in baseball, but it’s been a hit around at times this year. At this point, you’re just betting on which Tillman will show up.

Jeremy Guthrie, KC (at LAA) –
R.A. Dickey, TOR (v. SF) – This one is very simple: do you trust his health? If you don’t, then lineup and venue don’t matter. If you do, then you can start to look at him as a serious option. I think there are too many worthy options elsewhere today.

YOU CAN SAFELY IGNORE:

Some of these options today aren’t too bad, but there are just better options who as cheaper or even cheaper. I don’t hate Vargas, Colon, or Haren specifically, but the risk/reward just isn’t there on a full slate like today that features studs and semi-studs all around.

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PARK FACTORS: MAY 14th, 2013

PITCHER PARK PARK-R PARK-HR PARK-LHB PARK-RHB
Harrell Comerica 1.29 1.296 0.990 1.133
Fister Comerica 1.29 1.296 0.990 1.133
Lohse PNC 0.825 0.674 0.858 0.943
Locke PNC 0.825 0.674 0.858 0.943
Cashner Camden 1.019 1.096 1.048 0.935
Tillman Camden 1.019 1.096 1.048 0.935
Kazmir Citizens 1.289 1.273 1.075 0.952
Pettibone Citizens 1.289 1.273 1.075 0.952
Hernandez Yankee 0.824 0.873 1.055 0.983
Sabathia Yankee 0.824 0.873 1.055 0.983
Zito Rogers 0.982 1.474 1.020 1.055
Dickey Rogers 0.982 1.474 1.020 1.055
Lackey Tropicana 0.97 0.856 1.009 0.997
Moore Tropicana 0.97 0.856 1.009 0.997
Bailey Marlins 0.883 0.859 0.936 0.859
Nolasco Marlins 0.883 0.859 0.936 0.859
Francis Wrigley 1.499 0.842 1.093 0.991
Villanueva Wrigley 1.499 0.842 1.093 0.991
Peavy Target 1.046 0.536 0.925 1.048
Correia Target 1.046 0.536 0.925 1.048
Gee Busch 0.821 1.269 1.016 0.843
Gast Busch 0.821 1.269 1.016 0.843
Teheran Chase 0.966 0.775 1.052 0.920
Corbin Chase 0.966 0.775 1.052 0.920
Guthrie Angel 1.002 0.722 0.960 1.062
Vargas Angel 1.002 0.722 0.960 1.062
Holland O.Co 1.094 1.008 0.935 1.066
Colon O.Co 1.094 1.008 0.935 1.066
Haren Dodger 0.931 1.118 1.002 0.908
Kershaw Dodger 0.931 1.118 1.002 0.908

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Starting Pitcher Salaries: May 14th, 2013

Shown below are starting pitcher salaries as well as the percent of top statistics.

1) Percent Top in Red are the most expensive. Between 80% and 100% of the most expensive pitcher each day for each site.
2) Percent Top in Yellow cost between 60% and 80% of the most expensive pitcher each day for each site.
3) Percent Top in Green cost between 40% and 60% of the most expensive pitcher each day for each site.
4) Percent Top in Blue are the cheapest pitchers each day and are 40% or lower than the most expensive pitcher each day for each site.

Site FANDUEL DRAFTSTREET DAILYJOUST DRAFTDAY DRAFTKINGS FANTASYFEUD STARSTREET
Name Salary Top Salary Top Salary Top Salary Top Salary Top Salary Top Salary Top
Harrell $5,500 57% $6,580 34% $171K 36% $7,800 41% $7,600 61% $61K 42% $16,500 40%
Fister $6,400 67% $12,795 66% $323K 68% $14,750 78% $9,800 79% $93K 63% $31,100 75%
Lohse $7,200 75% $10,330 53% $255K 54% $10,450 55% $9,600 77% $89K 60% $22,900 56%
Locke $5,000 52% $10,563 55% $259K 55% $8,100 43% $6,500 52% $79K 53% $20,900 51%
Cashner $5,700 59% $10,122 52% $248K 52% $8,450 44% $5,000 40% $47K 32% $24,300 59%
Tillman $6,200 65% $12,732 66% $303K 64% $9,450 50% $7,200 58% $104K 70% $27,900 68%
Kazmir $5,400 56% $9,489 49% $298K 63% $11,250 59% $5,800 47% $107K 72% $22,700 55%
Pettibone $3,000 31% $7,284 38% $229K 48% $7,950 42% $6,300 51% $77K 52% $19,400 47%
Hernandez $9,600 100% $18,231 94% $473K 100% $19,000 100% $11,700 94% $149K 100% $40,700 99%
Sabathia $8,500 89% $16,293 84% $363K 77% $14,300 75% $11,600 94% NA NA $33,300 81%
Zito $6,500 68% $9,488 49% $294K 62% $9,700 51% $8,100 65% $83K 56% $19,900 48%
Dickey $7,000 73% $10,431 54% $253K 53% $9,550 50% $8,900 72% $94K 63% $25,700 62%
Lackey $5,100 53% $11,426 59% $296K 63% $8,800 46% $8,700 70% $80K 54% $24,300 59%
Moore $8,800 92% $14,819 77% $329K 70% $14,250 75% $10,500 85% $102K 69% $32,500 79%
Bailey $6,900 72% $13,673 71% $290K 61% $12,200 64% $9,800 79% $93K 63% $24,600 60%
Nolasco $6,100 64% $10,739 55% $235K 50% $8,200 43% $7,900 64% $70K 47% $25,200 61%
Francis $4,600 48% $6,150 32% $168K 36% $6,650 35% $6,300 51% $43K 29% $15,000 36%
Villanueva $7,000 73% $10,645 55% $287K 61% $11,550 61% $8,300 67% $80K 54% $16,700 41%
Peavy $7,800 81% $16,894 87% $372K 79% $15,300 81% $9,600 77% $122K 82% $30,100 73%
Correia $5,200 54% $8,831 46% $255K 54% $9,550 50% $7,300 59% $87K 59% $19,000 46%
Gee $5,800 60% $8,041 42% $162K 34% $7,400 39% $7,800 63% $68K 46% $21,900 53%
Gast NA NA $10,432 54% $200K 42% $6,600 35% $5,000 40% NA NA $16,500 40%
Teheran $5,400 56% $9,655 50% $246K 52% $8,300 44% $6,600 53% $73K 50% $22,500 55%
Corbin $7,000 73% $14,299 74% $368K 78% $11,600 61% $8,200 66% $109K 74% $29,200 71%
Guthrie $6,600 69% $13,193 68% $360K 76% $10,750 57% $7,600 61% $91K 61% $28,700 70%
Vargas $5,300 55% $11,462 59% $275K 58% $10,400 55% $7,100 57% $82K 55% $26,700 65%
Holland $6,800 71% $15,286 79% $373K 79% $13,150 69% $8,300 67% $98K 66% $28,900 70%
Colon $6,400 67% $7,159 37% $237K 50% $7,350 39% $7,400 60% $76K 52% $23,000 56%
Haren $6,100 64% $12,684 65% $311K 66% $10,050 53% $7,100 57% $84K 56% $26,300 64%
Kershaw $9,300 97% $19,371 100% $422K 89% $18,550 98% $12,400 100% $145K 98% $41,200 100%

About the Author

PSporer
PSporer

Paul has been writing about baseball for 15 years at various internet outlets and he’s been an avid fantasy baseballer for 21 of his 33 years on this planet, joining his first league at 12 years old which is still running today. He writes a comprehensive starting pitcher guide each year and it’s now available thespguide.com. When’s he’s not watching baseball, he is sleeping, because why would anyone waste time being awake if they weren’t going to watch baseball? He writes three times a week and has his own podcast at Fangraphs with co-hosts Eno Sarris & Jason Collette, contributes to Rotowire, and he has been a guest co-host with Matthew Berry on ESPN’s Fantasy Focus podcast.