Daily Pitcher Breakdown: May 21st, 2013

by PSporer Last Updated 2013-05-21 17:59:51

Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown. I will focus on the top selections of the day and give you a breakdown on why they are set up for success against their given opponent. Sometimes there will be a best of the rest section featuring guys who are likely low-dollar options with some upside for those of you who prefer to load your lineup with hitting studs.

There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.

LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in White are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE

View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ

Performance and Talent Statistics: May 21st, 2013

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STARTING PITCHER BREAKDOWN

Here is a look at the day’s slate of arms and how they might stack in their given matchups.

THE CREAM OF THE CROP:

Adam Wainwright, STL (at SD) – The Padres have no doubt hit better than expected so far this year sitting around the middle of the pack in a lot of categories including OPS v. righties (716, ranked 17th), but they are facing one of the best pitchers in the game tonight in their pitcher-friendly ballpark. Waino’s off-speed stuff – specifically his curveball and slider – has been excellent. He didn’t walk a single guy for his first four starts and he’s only walked five in the subsequent five outing giving him a 2% walk rate for the season. His 25% strikeout rate is a career-best as well. Given what he’s done to date, the venue, and the opponent, he’s easily the top guy for today.

Yu Darvish, TEX (v. OAK) – I am surprised by how low Darvish’s gem percentage is right now with just three in his first nine starts. Of course, he has four other starts where he’s allowed just three runs so it’s not like he hasn’t been excellent. You don’t really need me to tell you how great Darvish is and why you should consider using him today. However, I would like to let you know that the opponent he is facing today isn’t nearly as scary as your perception might lead you to believe.

The A’s came out firing offensively this year. They were 12-4 after 16 games with an MLB-high 96 runs (eclipsing second place Colorado by 14 runs), but they’ve gone 12-18 since with 120 runs (20th in MLB) since then taking a lot of sting out of their lineup. It can still do damage as it did Monday night against Josh Lindblom, but thwarting a career reliever making his first MLB start is a lot different than facing Darvish.

Stephen Strasburg, WAS (at SF) – I think Strasburg’s 2-5 record and drop in strikeout rate is clouding the fact that he’s still been awesome. Jordan Zimmermann dominating has also played a role. Strasburg remains an unquestioned ace, he is just showing some mortality that wasn’t present last year. While San Francisco’s AT&T Park is arguably the best in baseball for pitchers, the Giants haven’t treated their right-handed guests very well with baseball’s third-best OPS at 830 behind just the Tigers and Rangers. Their 14.1% strikeout rate against righties at home is also the lowest in baseball. Strasburg can reverse both of those trends, but don’t assume that he has an easy ride just because he’s facing the Giants at AT&T.

BEST OF THE REST:

Zack Greinke, LAD (at MIL) – The Dodgers limited Greinke to 83 pitches in his return, but he was excellent through 5.3 innings allowing just one run on five hits while striking out four. He’s looked brilliant in all three of his Dodger starts and he gets his former teammates tonight in Milwaukee. The Brewers destroy left-handed pitching (well, except Clayton Kershaw), but they’ve been middle of the pack against righties. Greinke, meanwhile, loves pitching in Miller Park with a 15-0 record, 2.89 ERA, and 1.05 WHIP in 150 innings. Some outlets have been slow to price him back at a level commensurate with his skills so jump in now while the gettin’ is still good.

Jose Fernandez, MIA (v. PHI) – Fernandez’s evolution through his first eight starts has been quite impressive. Through his first five outings, he managed more than five innings just once as the Marlins limited him to about 80-85 pitches. They have loosened the reins in May and he’s gone at least six in all three of his starts ranging from 82 to 99 pitches and only five runs allowed in the three starts combined.

This guy continues to show why the Marlins were right to entrust him with such a lofty promotion to start the season. There will still be some troughs as he makes his way through his first big league season, but you can’t argue with a guy who has three secondary pitches that are all limiting pitches to a .178 AVG or worse. The bang-for-buck appeal with Fernandez is significant at the sites where is still being valued as a five inning arm.

Alex Cobb, TB (at TOR) – As much as the Blue Jays have struggled in 2013, they have still hit at home, especially against righties. The Jays have been particularly sharp against Cobb’s two best pitches: fastball and changeup. They have a .291 AVG and 920 OPS against those pitches coming from righties. Cobb’s issue lately has been the longball. After giving up just one in his first four starts, he’s given up six in his last four. Thankfully five of them have been solo shots so the damage hasn’t been severe, but it’s a dangerous way to live. Be careful with Cobb today because even at their worst this Jays team can hit home runs. They are sixth in baseball with 54, just six behind the league-leading Indians.

Wandy Rodriguez, PIT (v. CHC) – He has quietly been excellent this year with a trip to Milwaukee as the only real blemish on his record (7 ER in 3.7 IP). He’s given up three or fewer in all seven of his other starts including 6.7 shutout innings against the Cubs to start his season back on April 3rd. By the way, it’s worth noting that he bounced back against Milwaukee his second time against them with seven innings of one-run ball with five strikeouts. The Cubs have a 690 OPS against lefty fastballs and curveballs, which are Wandy’s two best pitches. There is some nice upside here.

USE CAUTION:

Matt Cain, SF (v. WAS) – It looked like Cain might get rolling a bit with back-to-back excellent starts to open May, but then a trip to Colorado erased a lot of the good work as he gave up six in 6.3 innings thanks in large part to three home runs. In fact, home runs have been his issue all year long. Command in the zone is very fixable and that’s why I’m not freaking out about Cain overall, it’s just that when he’s been bad, it’s been awful. The Nationals aren’t not a particularly difficult opponent, especially when they are on the road. Their 657 OPS against righties on the road is 26th in baseball and they present a great opportunity for Cain to get back on track.

Max Scherzer, DET (v. CLE) – This slotting is all about the Indians. They can trash anyone so investing top dollar in Scherzer when so many other options are available just doesn’t make sense given the inherent risk. He was pretty good against them earlier this year lasting eight strong and giving up four runs on five hits with seven strikeouts, but they’ve tagged several starts with their worst outing of the year including King Felix over the weekend. Look elsewhere.

Mike Leake, CIN (at NYM) – This is more about Leake’s matchup than anything he does. The Mets have the worst OPS in baseball against righties at home (446) along with the worst strikeout rate (36%) in those situations, too.

Matt Garza, CHC (at PIT) – It’s his season debut after missing nearly two months to injury. Some sites might not even have him available. He looked sharp in his rehab outings at Double- and Triple-A, but that doesn’t mean he’s ready to face MLB hitters out of the gate. There could be some upside at sites that have him valued extremely low, but tread cautiously.

Ian Kennedy, ARI (at COL) – He held his own with a baseline quality start in his first outing at Coors Field, but he’s a heavy flyball pitcher with a bit of a home run issue meaning things can turn sour quickly. I’d look elsewhere even though I’m a Kennedy fan and the price is likely to be low.

Jerome Williams, LAA (v. SEA) – Williams has been strong in two of his three starts, both against the White Sox, and so getting to face another anemic offense makes him a reasonable option if you are looking for some low-dollar upside in order to load up on offense. His curveball and changeup have been especially strong and the Mariners struggle most against those pitches with a 499 OPS against them – worst in the AL – and second-worst in baseball.

Tyler Cloyd, PHI (at MIA) – Your obligatory “guy v. Miami” starter. Cloyd is average-at-best, but that can be excellent when you’re facing the Marlins in their spacious ballpark.

Jose Quintana, CWS (v. BOS) – Q hasn’t been too bad this year, but his home ballpark isn’t friendly to pitchers and that’s reflected in his early numbers with a 5.40 ERA in three starts. On the road he has a 3.26 ERA in five starts. Throw in a tough Boston offense who do well against Quintana’s best pitches (change/curve) and trouble could ensure. Be careful.

YOU CAN SAFELY IGNORE:

Bud Norris, HOU – Even when he does well, he gives up a lot of hits which mitigates his value for us daily players. Being the best starter on Houston isn’t saying much so I’m staying away against a potent KC lineup.

Jhoulys Chacin, COL – The results haven’t been too bad, but he is toting a sub-2.0 K/BB and his 2.7% HR/FB rate is likely headed on the way up given that he has a 10.2% career mark. I just don’t think the risk is worth it despite some decent work from Chacin this year.

Tim Hudson, ATL – Huddy has five strong outings, but his three horrid starts have been so bad that his composite ERA is still north of five at 5.12. The Twins aren’t world beaters, but they have been better than you might think and I don’t think Hudson’s risk/reward equation is worth it.

Phil Hughes, NYY – Not worth the trouble. He can look amazing one night and absolutely horrid the next and I just don’t want to deal with that against a strong Baltimore lineup in their hitter-friendly ballpark. There are far too many worthy options available to be rolling the dice on whether or not the good Hughes shows up.

• Dan Straily, OAK
• Ramon Ortiz, TOR
• Jonathon Niese, NYM
• Felix Doubront, BOS
• Corey Kluber, CLE
• Wade Davis, KC
• Edinson Volquez, SD
• Miguel Gonzalez, BAL
• Mike Pelfrey, MIN
• Hiram Burgos, MIL

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PARK FACTORS: May 21st, 2013

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Starting Pitcher Salaries: May 21st, 2013

Shown below are starting pitcher salaries as well as the percent of top statistics.

• Percent of Top (Top) – Player salary divided by the most expensive pitcher each day. So if Felix Hernandez is $9,000 on FanDuel and Justin Verlander is $4,500, Verlanders Top stat would be 50.

1) Percent Top in Red are the most expensive. Between 80% and 100% of the most expensive pitcher each day for each site.
2) Percent Top in Yellow cost between 60% and 80% of the most expensive pitcher each day for each site.
3) Percent Top in Green cost between 40% and 60% of the most expensive pitcher each day for each site.
4) Percent Top in Blue are the cheapest pitchers each day and are 40% or lower than the most expensive pitcher each day for each site.