Daily Pitcher Breakdown: May 27th, 2013

by PSporer Last Updated 2013-05-27 15:16:58

Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown. I will focus on the top selections of the day and give you a breakdown on why they are set up for success against their given opponent. Sometimes there will be a best of the rest section featuring guys who are likely low-dollar options with some upside for those of you who prefer to load your lineup with hitting studs.

There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.

LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in White are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE

View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ

Performance and Talent Statistics: May 27th, 2013

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STARTING PITCHER BREAKDOWN

Here is a look at the day’s slate of arms and how they might stack in their given matchups.

THE CREAM OF THE CROP:

Yu Darvish, TEX (at ARI) – As good as Darvish has been all year, there is a growing issue that could pose a problem if he doesn’t fix it: home runs. After not allowing a single home run in his first five outings, he’s allowed eight in his last five. Of course four runs is still his max allowed for the season and my trust in him as a bona fide hasn’t waned. Sometimes these aces are better buys in perceived tougher matchups because several tournament members are going to guys like Darvish when they are facing the Houstons and Seattles of the league.

Justin Verlander, DET (v. PIT) – The Pirates are quietly off to a great start, but it isn’t their offense against righties that is driving the success. They have a 710 OPS that rates 19th in the league and they are striking out 21% of the time (ninth-most) against them, too. After three very difficult outings that have seen Verlander at his worst in quite some time, this matchup presents a reprieve that should get him back on track. The struggles in his two outings against Cleveland and disaster in Texas have depressed Verlander’s to the cheapest he’s no doubt been in ages. On the one hand, it’s a great investment opportunity just because he may never be cheaper, but that fact won’t be lost on many competitors especially given his matchup so he may end up as a very popular pick.

Jeff Samardzija, CHC (at CWS) – Poor Jeff. He deserves so much more than his 2-6 record. He’s been even better than his 3.25 ERA according to the advanced ERA indicators as seen in his 3.09 xFIP and 3.15 SIERA. He just keeps getting better as he rounds into form as a true ace. He is attacking hitters more often, maintaining an excellent swinging strike rate (11.8%, sixth in MLB), and inducing more weak contact as his line drive has sunk while his groundball is up five percentage points to 49.4%. His team’s lineup doesn’t support him very well with just 2.8 runs per game – eight-lowest in baseball – hence the poor W-L record. Plus they are facing a formidable foe in Quintana which will once again put runs at a premium. As much as a I love Samardzija as a top-flight arm capable of scoring big, his low win probability cuts into his overall value.

Madison Bumgarner, SF (at OAK) – This matchup presents an interesting strength-vs.-strength sub-battle between Bumgarner’s curveball and the A’s. Bumgarner has yielded just a 389 OPS off of his curveball netting 17 of his 63 strikeouts with it, too. Meanwhile, the A’s are currently baseball’s best team against lefty curveballs with a 950 OPS. In fact, the A’s have a 785 OPS against lefties regardless of pitch, good for third in baseball. I still like MadBum’s chances as a premium lefty in a favorable venue.

Adam Wainwright, STL (at KC) – I actually like Wainwright and Shields as two of the best for the day, but the fact that they are facing each other really puts a win in serious danger cutting off the earning potential for both whereas the four listed ahead of this pair doesn’t have anyone near the caliber on the mound against them (you’ll forgive if I don’t buy fully into Liriano’s 1.00 ERA). Wainwright is allowing a 396 OPS with his breaking pitches with 46 of his 69 strikeouts.

He has a career-best 10% swinging strike rate (on all of his pitches, not just the breaking stuff) and the fact that he has a 2.38 ERA and 0.97 WHIP without an insanely low BABIP (.312) or insanely high LOB rate (74%) paints a picture of how just brilliantly he has pitched this season. Conversely Matt Moore has a 2.21 ERA thanks in large part to his .204 BABIP and 91% LOB rate. Wainwright is generally worth his huge price tag, but I could see he and Shields dueling to a draw through eight or even nine innings with the bullpens settling it and neither earning a decision.

James Shields, KC (v. STL) – Shields has been virtually the same exact pitcher he was last year in Tampa Bay as evidenced by his matching 3.24 xFIPs and 3.19 SIERAs, but his results with KC have been better thanks in part to career-best BABIP (.255) and LOB (82%) rates. He will likely regress some from his 2.47 ERA and 0.96 WHIP, but not dramatically. He deserves much better than his 2-5 record. Unfortunately the lack of support hurts his fantasy value, not just against the Cards and Wainwright, but on a start-to-start basis. Keep that in mind as you utilize Shields going forward, especially in the big tournaments where you virtually must have a win from your starter to cash big.

BEST OF THE REST:

Gio Gonzalez, WAS (v. BAL) – Have you noticed that the 2012 Gio is back? He’s been ridiculous in May with a 1.67 ERA and 0.93 WHIP in 27 innings across four starts. His strikeout rate is low compared to what we are used to as 19%, but his 7% walk rate is also much lower than normal. His offense or bullpen has failed in each of the last three starts rendering him without a decision despite a combined three runs allowed. Baltimore’s strength is against righties so while they do have a strong lineup, it is about league average against southpaws.

C.J. Wilson, LAA (at LAD) – The Dodgers have sputtered recently against lefties with a 633 OPS thanks in large part to punchless bats (.327 SLG), but one thing they don’t do is strike out against them. Their 16% strikeout rate is the lowest in baseball and their .348 OBP is an NL-best (third-highest overall) so their best route to success is nickel-and-diming Wilson. Wilson’s 8.6% swinging strike rate is at a four-year high, yet he’s hitting the zone at his lowest rate clip in the same four-year period which helps explain the surge in walks. The exorbitant base runner count mitigates some of Wilson’s upside and puts him in some danger against a team like the Dodgers who might not strike the big blow, but could tag him for four-five runs quickly if he doesn’t challenge them often and rack up some punchouts.

Jose Quintana, CWS (v. CHC) – Quintana has followed up his breakout rookie campaign quite nicely with improved rates all around resulting is an ERA that we can be much more confident in than last year’s 3.76. He’s striking out more batters, walking fewer, allowing fewer hits, and displaying better stuff. He’s just been a whole lot better. He’s gotten better versus righties and lefties as well as relied upon his changeup more often. He gets a Cubs lineup that is the sixth-worst in baseball against southpaws and the second-worst in baseball on the road. And yet this is another matchup where both pitchers stack up nicely making it tough to confidently back either. Tread carefully.

USE CAUTION:

Jon Niese, NYM (v. NYY) – Niese has back-to-back good starts against a pair of solid offenses (STL/CIN) and for as impressive as the Yankees have been, they have a 670 OPS against lefties (21st in MLB). Plus a lot of Niese’s struggles were confined to two awful starts at the beginning of May when he allowed 15 of his 29 earned runs to the Braves and Pirates in consecutive starts. There is a lot of upside potential here given his price as all of the major outlets still have him heavily discounted. The mechanical adjustments he made – discussed here – have gotten him back on track. You can bypass the obvious night options of Darvish and Samardzija, invest in Niese, and open a ton of your budget for a stacked offense. The Mets offense doesn’t instill a ton of confidence as a supporting cast for the win, but I still like the upside with this gamble.

Jose Fernandez, MIA (at TB) – Fernandez threw another good game his last time out, but once again showed a great example of why he is such a risk in daily fantasy. First off, the Marlins are apt to protect him and limit him to five innings with regularity and his weak supporting offense and bullpen will leave him out in the cold when it comes to wins more often than not. His high upside talent and low price makes him an appealing option, but the drawbacks associated with him make him more of a fairly priced asset than a bargain one. He’s good, but it’s too tough to invest when so many strong options exist.

Zack Greinke, LAD (v. LAA) – While not as marquee as Waino-Shields, this Battle of Los Angeles is another tough one to handicap making it difficult to back either starter. Greinke was sharp in his return back on May 15th, but then faltered against Milwaukee. In addition to the tough matchup, we still don’t know where Greinke’s stamina is at, either. If the Dodgers are still ramping him up, he might not go past six innings even if he’s doing well. And lastly, the Angels have started raking this month with an 810 OPS against righties.

Jhoulys Chacin, COL (at HOU) – Chacin’s ERA is over two runs lower on the road (4.83 home; 2.70 road) and he gets the lowly Astros who have a 678 OPS against right-handers. He has a sharp lefty/righty split on the road, though. He gives up an 1151 OPS to lefties on the road, but only a 536 to righties. At home it’s a more even 576 to lefties and 637 to righties. The Astros can put five or six lefties in the lineup when you factor in switch-hitters so be careful with Chacin.

Phil Hughes, NYY (at NYM) – Hughes got back on track against the Orioles giving up just two runs in six innings, but both were on home runs which remains his biggest issue. He’s now given up five home runs in his last three outings. The Mets aren’t exactly a powerful offense with their 688 OPS (23rd in MLB) and 33 home runs (22nd) making this a solid matchup for Hughes, who looked brilliant for a four-start spell from April 18th to May 4th. His ugly 5.51 ERA keeps his price low, but his tendency to pass out home runs like they are candy keeps his risk high.

Mike Leake, CIN (v. CLE) – While I do prefer shying away from Cleveland with anything outside of the best arms, this could be a strong matchup for Leake. His two best pitches are his breaking balls (curve, slider) and one of the weaknesses of the Cleveland offense is their 480 OPS against those two pitches from the hands of righties. Leake has built his numbers against mostly weak competition, but this is his chance to thwart a capable foe.

YOU CAN SAFELY IGNORE:

Francisco Liriano, PIT (at DET) – I need more than three strong starts, including two against weak offenses, to trust Liriano against the Tigers.
Tyler Cloyd, PHI (at BOS) – Cloyd’s been strong in his first two starts this year, but one was in Miami and the Red Sox are second to only the Orioles in OPS against righties with an 807. Pass.

Dan Straily, OAK (v. SF) – Straily had that gem in Texas, but that doesn’t make him trustworthy right away. Plus the Giants are second in baseball against righties this month with an 830 OPS and third with a .290 AVG.

Jason Hammel, BAL (at WAS) – A nice outing against the Yankees and a deceiving 6-2 record isn’t enough to sway me to start Hammel here, even against a modest Nationals lineup.

Jake Odorizzi, TB (v. MIA) – Yes, he’s facing the Marlins which puts anyone on the radar, but I think there are too many more worthy options especially with the Marlins ace going against the Rays.

• Bud Norris
• Tim Hudson
• Clayton Richard
• Ubaldo Jimenez
• Aaron Harang
• Kevin Correia
• Tyler Skaggs
• Wily Peralta
• Mark Buehrle
• Alfredo Aceves

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PARK FACTORS: May 27th, 2013

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Starting Pitcher Salaries: May 27th, 2013

Shown below are starting pitcher salaries as well as the percent of top statistics.

• Percent of Top (Top) – Player salary divided by the most expensive pitcher each day. So if Felix Hernandez is $9,000 on FanDuel and Justin Verlander is $4,500, Verlanders Top stat would be 50.

1) Percent Top in Red are the most expensive. Between 80% and 100% of the most expensive pitcher each day for each site.
2) Percent Top in Yellow cost between 60% and 80% of the most expensive pitcher each day for each site.
3) Percent Top in Green cost between 40% and 60% of the most expensive pitcher each day for each site.
4) Percent Top in Blue are the cheapest pitchers each day and are 40% or lower than the most expensive pitcher each day for each site.