Daily Pitcher Breakdown: May 2nd
The Daily Pitcher Breakdown goes in-depth to look at nearly every pitching option, with a focus on the best targets for each night. Sometimes there will be a best of the rest section featuring guys who are likely low-dollar options with some upside for those of you who prefer to load your lineup with hitting studs.
There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in White are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ
Daily Pitcher Chart
| Pitcher | TM | OPP | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morrow | TOR | PIT | 22.1 | 6.04 | 4.54 | 1.58 | 24.2% | 16.2% | 0.81 | 1.58 | |
| Cole | PIT | TOR | 34 | 3.18 | 3.65 | 1.26 | 60.0% | 18.4% | 7.8% | 1.06 | 2.42 |
| Price | TBR | NYY | 41.2 | 4.75 | 2.64 | 1.19 | 33.3% | 27.2% | 2.9% | 1.51 | 1.07 |
| Nuno | NYY | TBR | 13.2 | 6.59 | 3.80 | 1.82 | 23.8% | 11.1% | 1.98 | 1.15 | |
| Danks | CWS | CLE | 31 | 3.48 | 5.46 | 1.42 | 40.0% | 13.2% | 12.5% | 0.29 | 1.05 |
| Salazar | CLE | CWS | 25.1 | 6.04 | 3.46 | 1.67 | 20.0% | 27.2% | 9.7% | 1.78 | 0.69 |
| Strasburg | WAS | PHI | 34 | 4.24 | 2.32 | 1.41 | 50.0% | 35.3% | 8.0% | 0.79 | 1.42 |
| Lee | PHI | WAS | 41 | 3.29 | 2.72 | 1.37 | 50.0% | 23.0% | 2.3% | 0.44 | 1.94 |
| Peralta | MIL | CIN | 31.2 | 2.56 | 3.43 | 1.15 | 60.0% | 18.9% | 5.3% | 1.42 | 2.04 |
| Leake | CIN | MIL | 35.1 | 3.82 | 3.57 | 1.03 | 20.0% | 14.4% | 4.3% | 1.53 | 2.36 |
| Beckett | LAD | MIA | 22 | 2.45 | 3.52 | 0.91 | 25.0% | 25.3% | 9.2% | 1.23 | 1.10 |
| Koehler | MIA | LAD | 30.1 | 2.97 | 4.79 | 1.23 | 80.0% | 15.8% | 11.0% | 0.89 | 1.40 |
| Straily | OAK | BOS | 28 | 5.14 | 3.45 | 1.21 | 20.0% | 24.1% | 6.9% | 2.25 | 0.83 |
| Buchholz | BOS | OAK | 25.2 | 6.66 | 4.00 | 1.79 | 40.0% | 15.6% | 4.9% | 1.40 | 1.47 |
| Lincecum | SFG | ATL | 25.2 | 5.96 | 3.19 | 1.67 | 23.5% | 5.2% | 2.10 | 1.38 | |
| Minor | ATL | SFG | |||||||||
| Hernandez | SEA | HOU | 41.1 | 2.40 | 2.51 | 0.90 | 16.7% | 28.7% | 4.3% | 0.65 | 1.50 |
| Peacock | HOU | SEA | 19.2 | 5.95 | 5.36 | 2.03 | 18.6% | 17.5% | 0.46 | 1.09 | |
| Jimenez | BAL | MIN | 27.1 | 6.59 | 5.23 | 1.85 | 16.3% | 13.2% | 1.65 | 0.81 | |
| Nolasco | MIN | BAL | 29.2 | 6.67 | 4.87 | 1.78 | 9.7% | 6.7% | 1.52 | 1.56 | |
| Porcello | DET | KCR | 25 | 3.96 | 3.50 | 1.12 | 50.0% | 16.7% | 4.2% | 0.72 | 2.31 |
| Shields | KCR | DET | 40 | 2.03 | 3.02 | 0.95 | 66.7% | 25.5% | 5.6% | 0.90 | 1.33 |
| Wheeler | NYM | COL | 29.1 | 3.99 | 3.50 | 1.44 | 40.0% | 24.4% | 8.7% | 0.61 | 1.30 |
| De La Rosa | COL | NYM | 31 | 5.23 | 3.80 | 1.32 | 33.3% | 20.6% | 9.6% | 1.16 | 2.08 |
| Lewis | TEX | LAA | 15.2 | 4.60 | 3.79 | 1.51 | 20.0% | 5.7% | 1.72 | 0.85 | |
| Santiago | LAA | TEX | 26.1 | 4.44 | 4.62 | 1.46 | 20.0% | 19.8% | 11.2% | 1.03 | 0.62 |
| Arroyo | ARI | SDP | 24.1 | 7.77 | 5.03 | 1.83 | 20.0% | 8.6% | 6.8% | 1.85 | 1.64 |
| Cashner | SDP | ARI | 40.1 | 2.68 | 3.28 | 1.15 | 66.7% | 21.7% | 6.6% | 0.45 | 2.06 |
Here is a look at the day’s slate of arms and how they might stack in their given matchups.
BEST BUYS:
These aren’t just low-cost guys with good matchups and/or venues, but you will also find expensive studs in here with great matchups. An ace facing another ace won’t find his way in here because the win probability for both is sliced significantly by facing each other.
Felix Hernandez, SEA (at HOU) – Hernandez wasn’t great his last time against Houston, though four of his six runs were unearned yielding a solid 7 IP/2 ER effort, albeit with just four strikeouts and a season-high seven hits. Hernandez is great at adjusting when he’s a little off so the Astros could be in big trouble tonight.
Andrew Cashner, SD (v. ARI) – Cashner returns home to face the D’backs after a couple of modest outings on the road (6 IP/4 ER in each) and hopes to get back on his track of ace-level pitching. Cashner’s slider hasn’t been the beast it was a year ago, but his fastball is baseball’s best among the 38 pitchers who have thrown at least 350 so far this season. His mid-to-high 90s heater is allowing a .229 wOBA while the D’backs rank 23rd against righty fastballs with a .318 wOBA.
GOOD BUYS:
This is where a lot of the high-priced big arms with decent or worse matchups will reside. Any top arm can thwart even the toughest lineup, but it’s not always the most sensible buy when they are among the most costly arms on the board. This is also where the ace v. ace matchups will be as they still have the potential for a big score, but just lack the high probability of the ever-important win.
Stephen Strasburg, WAS (at PHI) – The price remains severe for ace-level stuff that has yielded fourth starter results. Alas, we’re being charged full price for the gaudy strikeout rate and the 2.30 FIP that suggests that the 4.24 ERA will improve.
Gerrit Cole, PIT (v. TOR) – I was hoping for/expecting more strikeouts thus far, but everything beyond that has been strong for Cole. He does have a 10 K effort this year, so the upside is still definitely there and while Cincy got to him for 5 ER, no one else has gotten more than three. What he lacks in strikeouts, he’s been trying to make up for with innings as his 6.8 innings per game effort is tied for eighth-most in the league.
John Danks, CWS (at CLE) – Danks has sharply improved his command this season, cutting his HR/9 from 1.8 to 0.3 so far this season. Of course, he seems to have sacrificed some of his control with a gaudy walk rate and meager 1.1 K/BB ratio. He is a nice bargain option today despite the unimpressive strikeout and walk numbers as the Indians are just 28th in wOBA against southpaws this year.
Wily Peralta, MIL (at CIN) – He’s been great this year even with allowing a homer in each of his five starts, but the chic sleeper pick from this preseason has panned out a month into the season. He hasn’t allowed more than 3 ER in a single game and he’s fanned six in three different starts. He has really shown some nice growth early on, enough that he can be trusted in a tough venue against a solid offense. Having Billy Hamilton shelved with a hand issue certainly helps and not because of the damage that he’s doing with the bat, but because of what he does to pitchers when he’s on first and “Joey Votto(player-profile)”:/players/Joey_Votto-10325’s in the box.
David Price, TB (at NYY) – Price has been similar to Strasburg in that his surface ERA says stay away, but everything else says buy now! Price leads the AL in K/BB (9.4) and walk rate (1.1 BB/9), but he leads the majors with seven homers allowed hence the split between his 4.75 ERA and 3.48 FIP. The Yankees aren’t bad and they’ve already popped him for six runs and two homers this year so you might be better looking elsewhere if you’re diving into the ace pool.
Mike Minor, ATL (v. SF) – Sometimes there is trepidation with fantasy gamers using a guy in their first start off the DL, but I lean more toward using higher end guys immediately.
Jorge de la Rosa, COL (v. NYM) – Don’t be fooled by the 5.23 ERA, DLR has three straight strong outings (two gems and a 5 IP/1 ER win) to counter his three straight 4.3 IP duds to start the season. He’s missing bats again (20.6% K rate, up from 15.7% a season ago) without much change to his walk rate. The Mets are anemic offensively and DLR has shown a penchant for success in Coors including a 2.76 ERA there last year in 81.7 IP.
Bronson Arroyo, ARI (at SD) – This one is risky because it’s Arroyo and he’s of course awful, but the Padres are horrific on offense and it’s in their spacious home park. It’s a big gamble and there won’t be any strikeouts to speak of, but he could repeat his 6.3 IP/2 ER effort from last time out at a rock-bottom price. Might not be a bad option if you’re looking to save some money with a Hernandez or Strasburg.
Vidal Nuno, NYY (v. TB) – The Rays have been rough against southpaws, making even the lower tier ones look like frontline starters. Nuno already dropped five shutout innings on them on April 20th and he’s been missing bats at a solid clip, too. He’s been in the 65-70 pitch range for his long outings this year so he might not make it more than the five innings, but he costs nothing and could return nice value.
USE CAUTION:
Cliff Lee, PHI (v. WAS) – He’s allowed fewer than eight hits just once in six starts this season and while he has worked his ERA down to 3.29 from that Opening Day disaster in Texas (5 IP/8 ER), he hasn’t been flawless. I love the 10 K/BB ratio, powered by just four walks allowed, but he’s facing the league’s best team in wOBA against lefties (.399) and I’m not willing to risk another eight-plus hit effort as the Nats will likely make him pay for it. The price is too high to risk it.
James Shields, KC (v. DET) – Shields has been excellent this year, but he just hasn’t done his best work against the Tigers since joining the Royals. He has a 4.85 ERA against them in six starts including a passable, but uninspiring 6.3 IP/3 ER effort from Opening Day. I love the overall stat line and I’ll be using him plenty this season, but there are other aces I’d look to today if I’m spending big on pitching.
Josh Beckett, LAD (at MIA) – We finally saw him push deep into a game with a strong eight-inning effort against Colorado last time out and heading into Miami seems like a nice chance for a repeat, but the Marlins have been quite frisky at home with a .386 wOBA that sits second in the league. Beckett, despite his great start, hasn’t done enough to be trusted in all matchups so I’m actually treading cautiously here on a pick that others might be jumping in on headfirst.
Rick Porcello, DET (at KC) – Porcello hasn’t carried over his strikeout gains from last year toting an unimpressive 16.7% strikeout rate after his 19.3% mark a season ago. He’s unlikely to push his rate up against the Royals, who just don’t strike out. The defense has to be on point for Porcello tonight as the high contact Royals will put a ton of balls in play. This isn’t an inherently bad matchup for Porcello, but I don’t love it, either.
Danny Salazar, CLE (v. CWS) – One impressive start in San Francisco doesn’t erase the damage of everything we’ve seen from Salazar so far this season. And I’m especially skeptical about trusting him against this surprisingly strong offense. The long ball has killed him this year and the White Sox can leave the yard with plenty of guys, including baseball’s most dangerous newcomer – Jose Abreu.
NOT AT ALL CONFIDENT, HERE’S WHY:
Zack Wheeler, NYM (at COL) – Why risk it in Coors against that high-powered offense?
Tim Lincecum, SF (at ATL) – I’m sure the Ks will be there with this whiff-heavy club, but at what cost? I’m so over Lincecum.
Mike Leake, CIN (v. MIL) – The homer-prone righty Leake has never really been a consistently strong option for the daily game and I can’t really get excited about him facing the team with the third-most homers this year (16). His home run rate at home jumps to 1.4 compared to just 1.0 on the road. Stay away.
Clay Buchholz, BOS (v. OAK) – He’s been tossing batting practice so far this season with 13.7 H/9. Oakland is right behind Colorado in team wOBA against righties at .366 this year.
Dan Straily, OAK (at BOS) – The Red Sox haven’t really exploded offensively and yet they are still a top 10 club in wOBA against righties (.335) and Straily has been a home run machine this season. I like the strikeout-per-inning effort so far this season and 3.5 K/BB rate, but I’m passing on this matchup.
Colby Lewis, TEX (at LAA) / Hector Santiago, LAA (v. TEX) – What have either of these guys done for you to feel confident enough to trust them against one of these strong offenses? I expected a lot more from Santiago this season, but he just hasn’t delivered yet. I’m keeping an eye both for the long-term, but they are both pass-worthy for tonight.
Brandon Morrow, TOR (at PIT) – Nope. Just refuse to trust him. A trip to PNC isn’t bad and this offense isn’t particularly scary, but Morrow is scary and I have no use for him in the daily game. His only good outing was against Houston and it wasn’t even that special.
Tom Koehler, MIA (v. LAD) – I’ve recommended him more than once in this space with some decent results, but there is too much downside against this club for a guy who doesn’t miss bats (15.7% K rate).
Brad Peacock, HOU (v. SEA) – Hey welcome to the rotation, now go far Oakland twice! The Mariners are markedly worse than the A’s, but I still don’t love Peacock in this spot.
Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against
| Pitcher | wOBA vs L | ERA vs L | wOBA vs R | ERA vs R | AVG | OPS | BABIP | FIP | AVG-A | Pit/G | Strk% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morrow | 0.418 | 7.02 | 0.300 | 4.24 | 0.218 | 0.630 | 0.298 | 4.30 | 0.229 | 86.20 | 58.0% |
| Cole | 0.281 | 3.39 | 0.302 | 3.16 | 0.254 | 0.742 | 0.286 | 4.28 | 0.25 | 99.80 | 66.3% |
| Price | 0.246 | 3.43 | 0.313 | 3.70 | 0.296 | 0.807 | 0.327 | 3.49 | 0.263 | 104.17 | 70.4% |
| Nuno | 0.342 | 7.71 | 0.339 | 3.04 | 0.223 | 0.617 | 0.368 | 5.33 | 0.304 | 116.00 | 65.5% |
| Danks | 0.345 | 4.50 | 0.335 | 4.56 | 0.207 | 0.596 | 0.263 | 4.13 | 0.229 | 109.80 | 60.8% |
| Salazar | 0.294 | 3.20 | 0.361 | 4.97 | 0.275 | 0.783 | 0.388 | 4.55 | 0.301 | 92.00 | 60.7% |
| Strasburg | 0.284 | 3.56 | 0.270 | 2.95 | 0.237 | 0.641 | 0.407 | 2.31 | 0.263 | 96.00 | 66.5% |
| Lee | 0.240 | 2.43 | 0.298 | 3.11 | 0.335 | 0.934 | 0.391 | 2.11 | 0.306 | 105.17 | 70.4% |
| Peralta | 0.324 | 4.03 | 0.317 | 4.25 | 0.253 | 0.695 | 0.255 | 4.36 | 0.234 | 96.40 | 64.3% |
| Leake | 0.324 | 3.48 | 0.304 | 3.38 | 0.258 | 0.717 | 0.229 | 4.89 | 0.229 | 97.00 | 62.3% |
| Beckett | 0.353 | 5.52 | 0.320 | 3.31 | 0.268 | 0.757 | 0.173 | 4.27 | 0.156 | 89.25 | 63.0% |
| Koehler | 0.301 | 4.52 | 0.350 | 3.90 | 0.264 | 0.765 | 0.227 | 4.68 | 0.207 | 99.60 | 60.4% |
| Straily | 0.326 | 4.95 | 0.284 | 3.36 | 0.249 | 0.711 | 0.264 | 5.35 | 0.243 | 86.20 | 61.7% |
| Buchholz | 0.267 | 2.52 | 0.295 | 2.98 | 0.264 | 0.773 | 0.380 | 4.50 | 0.339 | 87.00 | 66.9% |
| Lincecum | 0.317 | 4.37 | 0.342 | 4.76 | 0.226 | 0.648 | 0.395 | 4.77 | 0.33 | 92.40 | 63.4% |
| Minor | 0.259 | 2.79 | 0.298 | 3.40 | 0.252 | 0.761 | |||||
| Hernandez | 0.291 | 3.44 | 0.265 | 2.38 | 0.197 | 0.635 | 0.257 | 2.45 | 0.194 | 101.17 | 66.4% |
| Peacock | 0.384 | 6.47 | 0.289 | 3.94 | 0.218 | 0.644 | 0.344 | 4.56 | 0.275 | 186.50 | 58.7% |
| Jimenez | 0.301 | 3.64 | 0.334 | 3.94 | 0.266 | 0.784 | 0.329 | 5.95 | 0.297 | 102.80 | 60.5% |
| Nolasco | 0.342 | 4.64 | 0.298 | 3.58 | 0.273 | 0.720 | 0.355 | 5.36 | 0.344 | 98.80 | 61.1% |
| Porcello | 0.357 | 5.09 | 0.266 | 3.52 | 0.268 | 0.705 | 0.297 | 3.37 | 0.261 | 95.00 | 66.1% |
| Shields | 0.277 | 2.92 | 0.315 | 3.13 | 0.264 | 0.705 | 0.240 | 3.28 | 0.195 | 106.17 | 63.3% |
| Wheeler | 0.356 | 4.85 | 0.284 | 2.72 | 0.281 | 0.804 | 0.349 | 3.03 | 0.267 | 101.00 | 62.2% |
| De La Rosa | 0.243 | 2.43 | 0.344 | 4.18 | 0.242 | 0.634 | 0.273 | 4.55 | 0.233 | 93.83 | 60.2% |
| Lewis | 0.409 | 5.59 | 0.281 | 3.18 | 0.255 | 0.752 | 0.340 | 4.98 | 0.297 | 88.33 | 64.2% |
| Santiago | 0.311 | 3.31 | 0.339 | 3.91 | 0.295 | 0.773 | 0.293 | 4.58 | 0.248 | 94.80 | 59.3% |
| Arroyo | 0.360 | 4.94 | 0.296 | 3.48 | 0.217 | 0.587 | 0.333 | 6.09 | 0.333 | 86.40 | 64.6% |
| Cashner | 0.302 | 3.46 | 0.264 | 2.67 | 0.246 | 0.675 | 0.282 | 2.81 | 0.226 | 99.67 | 68.7% |
Starting Pitcher Salaries
Click the image below to view pitcher salaries by each daily fantasy site along with their percent of top statistics.
- Percent of Top (Top) – Player salary divided by the most expensive pitcher each day. So if Felix Hernandez is $9,000 on FanDuel and Justin Verlander is $4,500, Verlanders Top stat would be 50.
NOTE: Button for pitcher salary chart above opens in popup window