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Daily Pitcher Breakdown: September 13th, 2013

by PSporer Last Updated 2013-09-13 21:37:32

Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown. I will focus on the top selections of the day and give you a breakdown on why they are set up for success against their given opponent. Sometimes there will be a best of the rest section featuring guys who are likely low-dollar options with some upside for those of you who prefer to load your lineup with hitting studs.

There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.

LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in White are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE

View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ

Performance and Talent Statistics: September 13th, 2013

PLAYER PERFORMANCE TALENT
PITCHER TM IP ERA SIERA WHIP GEM% K% BB% HR/9 G/F
Chen 72.7%
Verlander DET 192.2 3.64 3.84 1.34 43.3% 22.1% 8.3% 0.84 1.07
Arrieta CHC 57.1 5.49 5.08 1.45 27.3% 19.0% 14.6% 0.78 1.13
Morton PIT 91.2 3.44 3.46 1.35 43.8% 16.0% 6.3% 0.49 3.57
Kendrick PHI 177.2 4.51 4.33 1.37 48.3% 13.8% 5.8% 0.81 1.60
Strasburg WAS 170.0 2.96 3.11 1.04 53.6% 26.7% 7.7% 0.79 1.64
Hammel BAL 125.0 5.11 4.65 1.50 28.6% 15.6% 8.5% 1.44 1.13
Redmond TOR 57.1 4.40 3.66 1.22 20.0% 24.3% 7.8% 1.57 0.63
Kuroda NYY 183.2 2.99 3.71 1.12 55.2% 18.3% 4.7% 0.88 1.51
Lackey BOS 168.0 3.48 3.53 1.20 53.8% 20.9% 5.3% 1.13 1.40
Hand MIA 2.2 0.00 3.32 0.75 Debut 40.0% 20.0% 0.00 0.50
Niese NYM 116.2 3.86 4.21 1.49 50.0% 16.7% 8.3% 0.62 1.87
Kennedy SDP 164.2 4.86 4.21 1.41 35.7% 20.6% 9.7% 1.26 1.01
Hale ATL Debut
Straily OAK 134.1 4.15 4.30 1.25 45.8% 19.4% 8.5% 1.07 0.79
Holland TEX 190.1 3.17 3.83 1.28 51.7% 21.6% 7.8% 0.80 1.13
Archer TBR 110.0 3.19 4.25 1.13 52.6% 17.2% 7.6% 1.06 1.35
Correia MIN 167.1 4.30 4.49 1.41 42.9% 13.2% 5.5% 1.29 1.37
Vargas LAA 124.1 3.76 4.39 1.42 50.0% 16.9% 7.6% 1.01 1.09
Keuchel HOU 135.1 4.99 3.84 1.53 36.8% 17.0% 7.7% 1.20 2.31
Latos CIN 191.0 3.02 3.55 1.20 58.6% 21.9% 6.4% 0.57 1.38
Lohse MIL 175.2 3.59 4.27 1.24 41.4% 15.4% 4.7% 1.23 1.05
Iwakuma SEA 196.2 2.97 3.40 1.04 53.3% 21.6% 4.7% 1.14 1.36
Wainwright STL 213.2 3.03 2.97 1.07 53.3% 23.1% 3.7% 0.55 1.85
Chatwood COL 93.2 3.17 3.99 1.42 58.8% 15.5% 8.3% 0.48 2.77
McCarthy ARI 110.0 4.66 4.05 1.33 33.3% 14.5% 4.0% 0.82 1.62
Bumgarner SFG 188.1 2.82 3.43 1.03 62.1% 24.4% 7.6% 0.67 1.34
Kershaw LAD 216.0 1.92 3.16 0.92 70.0% 24.9% 6.0% 0.46 1.45

STARTING PITCHER BREAKDOWN

Here is a look at the day’s slate of arms and how they might stack in their given matchups.

TOP 14:

Clayton Kershaw, LAD (v. SF) – Kershaw isn’t really bad against anyone, but he’s particularly excellent against the Giants. He’s faced them the most this year logging 32 IP in four starts and he’s dominated them with a 1.13 ERA and 0.59 WHIP. He’s just so unbelievably good. He’s incredibly expensive – with good reason, of course – but if you have some low-dollar bats that you’re confident in, take the almost-guaranteed excellence from Kershaw.

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Stephen Strasburg, WAS (v. PHI) – The problem with Strasburg today, especially if you’re in one of the huge tourneys, is that fact that he’s just 2-3 in his last 11 starts and just 2-0 in his last seven despite a 2.72 ERA in 39.7 IP. Wins are remarkably difficult to predict so I’m not dinging Strasburg too much, but it is a bit disconcerting, especially if you play at an outlet where the pitcher win is extremely important to success.

Mat Latos, CIN (at MIL) – Where is the love for this guy? He’s just been filthy all year long. He’s allowed more than 3 ER just six times in his 29 starts and more than 4 ER just twice. He’s done a great job avoiding the implosion start, though it is worth noting that one of his two this year came against the Brewers back in May. However he bounced back with a 7 IP/2 ER outing against them in mid-August, so I’m still quite comfortable with him in this spot.

Chris Archer, TB (at MIN) – Archer’s big problem is left-handers, but with Joe Mauer shelved and Justin Morneau traded out to Pittsburgh, the Twins don’t have much in the way of imposing southpaws giving Archer an opportunity to bounce back from a pair of rough starts to kick off September. He had an 8.22 ERA in his west coast stint against the Angels and Mariners lasting a mere 7.7 IP in the pair of starts. He’d gone 7 IP in three straight to close out August, though.

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Adam Wainwright, STL (v. SEA) – Hey, maybe he isn’t irrecoverably broken after all! After back-to-back duds against the Reds, he dropped seven scoreless on the Pirates allowing two hits and fanning eight. There is an obvious disparity between the Reds and Pirates, but it’s nice to see that it was more the Reds having his number than a major malfunction with Wainwright. The Mariners have slid back into irrelevance at the dish of late with a .292 wOBA against righties over the last three weeks. They’ve been a bit better in just September at .316, but still not the imposing lineup they were back in the middle of the summer.

Hisashi Iwakuma, SEA (at STL) – Iwakuma has actually been better in the second half with a 2.89 ERA in 10 starts (3.02 before the break), though he’s been left decision-less in his last three despite a matching 2.89 ERA in those 18.7 IP. Scared off by the Cardinals? Don’t be, their .284 wOBA against righties in September is the eighth-worst in baseball. We should have a pitcher’s duel on our hands in St. Louis, but that’s part of why these two studs rank a tick below Archer who is better positioned for a W in Minnesota.

Jon Niese, NYM (v. MIA) – Niese had a 6 IP/5 ER dud his last time out, but it was against the lefty-bashing Indians so I don’t really hold it against him. I’d have never considered using him in the first place. Even with that stumble he has a 2.95 ERA in six starts since returning from the DL and now he gets the horrific Marlins. He’s got a pair of gems against them this year (who doesn’t?) and I like him returning home after a pair of road starts.

Madison Bumgarner, SF (at LAD) – This is less about MadBum’s skill and more about his counterpart on the mound impeding his way toward a win. Bumgarner has been brilliant in the second half (and all season) with a 2.42 ERA in 10 starts including 61 Ks in 63.3 IP, but he’s just 1-4 because of his putrid support on offense. Well, facing baseball’s best pitcher isn’t going to help there, so I’m more or less passing on Bumgarner with this ranking because I don’t feel confident in his win potential at all. Of course if you play at an outlet where pitcher wins don’t dominate the day, he moves up several spots for your consideration.

tyler-chatwood-300x200

Tyler Chatwood, COL (at ARI) – Chatwood definitely enjoys the road posting a 2.60 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, and 2.3 K/BB ratio in eight starts spanning 45 IP this year. He wasn’t particularly sharp in his initial return from the DL (2 IP/2 ER), but he sharpened up a good bit the next time out with a 6 IP/1 ER effort against the Padres. The D’Backs are toting baseball’s worst wOBA against righties in September at just .256.

Justin Verlander, DET (v. KC) – For all of the sky-is-falling worry around him, Verlander has a 3.67 ERA in his last seven starts which is certainly down from where he was, but to hear some tell it you’d think he was a fifth starter these days. He has 44 Ks in the 49 IP over those seven starts including a great start (8 IP/2 ER) and a mediocre one (7 IP/4 ER) against the Royals. But he lost both. I’m not diving headfirst, but some outlets have really cut his price so I actually love him as a secondary option in particular.

Derek Holland, TEX (v. OAK) – Holland’s had a tremendous year, but an up-and-down record against Oakland. He has two duds and one gem against them, though all three were in Oakland. The second of those duds came on September second when he went 4.7 IP/3 ER and followed it up with a worse outing in LA against the Angels going 5.7 IP/4 ER (8 runs total). He’s very good at home with a 3.16 ERA and 3.4 K/BB ratio. He’s not a bad option, but far from a slam dunk.

Kyle Lohse, MIL (v. CIN) – On the one hand Lohse has been really shaky in two of his last three allowing 5 and 7 ER, but on the other hand he’s had a solid season overall and a dominant one against the Reds with a 2.29 ERA in three starts spanning 19.7 IP. He only has seven strikeouts and six walks in those outings, though, so the component stats aren’t impressive at all.

jason-vargas-300x200

Jason Vargas, LAA (at HOU) – Vargas has a 4.09 ERA in 33 IP since returning from the DL with three gems and three duds. One of the duds was a no-decision against these Astros where he went 5.3 IP/3 ER with just three strikeouts. That kind of start doesn’t ruin your day, but it’s not particularly helpful, either, especially against a terrible Astros lineup. He also had a 5.7 IP/5 ER bomb against the Astros earlier this year.

Hiroki Kuroda, NYY (at BOS) – I’m a huge Kuroda fan, but he hasn’t been terribly reliable lately with a 6.52 ERA in his last five, but that span is bookended by starts against the Red Sox, one gem and the other of which was not too bad: 5.7 IP/3 ER and 6 IP/2 ER. The gem was his last time out and it included six strikeouts, though it was a no-decision. I just think there are better options to roll with today given a full slate.

BOTTOM SIX:

ADVANCED METRICS: September 13th, 2013

VS. L/R HANDED BATTERS OPP vs L/R OTHER ADVANCED STATS
PITCHER wOBA L ERA L wOBA R ERA R AVG OPS BABIP FIP AVG-A Pit/G Strk%
Duffy 0.306 1.35 0.281 2.08 0.273 0.782 0.284 3.09 0.213 94.00 59.8%
Verlander 0.303 3.03 0.340 4.62 0.257 0.687 0.313 3.49 0.253 109.00 65.7%
Arrieta 0.325 4.85 0.334 6.33 0.241 0.696 0.258 4.65 0.217 91.64 60.0%
Morton 0.391 5.71 0.283 2.13 0.244 0.707 0.326 3.66 0.278 83.88 63.3%
Kendrick 0.314 3.98 0.348 5.03 0.253 0.711 0.304 3.89 0.274 96.17 64.7%
Strasburg 0.301 3.91 0.255 2.25 0.254 0.702 0.260 3.18 0.202 94.32 63.2%
Hammel 0.383 6.24 0.329 3.71 0.255 0.748 0.309 5.07 0.283 95.55 62.1%
Redmond 0.304 4.15 0.364 4.67 0.271 0.777 0.273 4.51 0.233 76.69 63.4%
Kuroda 0.317 3.54 0.274 2.39 0.282 0.807 0.277 3.48 0.242 100.00 63.8%
Lackey 0.294 3.05 0.340 4.06 0.244 0.687 0.294 3.71 0.252 99.65 66.1%
Hand 0.180 0.00 0.120 0.00 0.245 0.693 0.000 2.30 0.000 22.00 52.3%
Niese 4.45 3.66 0.226 0.634 0.328 3.67 3.970 97.35 63.5%
Kennedy 0.358 5.20 0.331 4.61 0.253 0.737 0.295 4.53 0.252 100.86 63.1%
Hale 0.244 0.677
Straily 0.329 5.16 0.292 3.20 0.260 0.737 0.271 4.18 0.236 89.83 64.1%
Holland 0.309 3.71 0.322 3.05 0.245 0.735 0.302 3.41 0.247 102.31 64.9%
Archer 0.353 4.26 0.214 1.76 0.238 0.695 0.243 4.30 0.221 93.21 63.1%
Correia 0.366 5.09 0.337 3.69 0.253 0.739 0.311 4.52 0.292 93.46 62.9%
Vargas 0.362 2.70 0.331 4.22 0.246 0.697 0.309 4.08 0.272 99.90 63.6%
Keuchel 0.352 5.12 0.367 5.00 0.243 0.714 0.333 4.38 0.293 78.29 63.9%
Latos 0.319 3.24 0.280 2.87 0.251 0.713 0.300 2.94 0.241 100.66 66.2%
Lohse 0.328 4.04 0.314 3.19 0.251 0.723 0.289 4.19 0.267 93.55 66.2%
Iwakuma 0.270 2.57 0.312 3.49 0.284 0.766 0.260 3.58 0.226 93.40 67.5%
Wainwright 0.281 3.54 0.284 2.53 0.248 0.728 0.308 2.53 0.245 103.80 67.5%
Chatwood 0.334 2.88 0.319 3.46 0.257 0.716 0.321 3.57 0.275 87.35 61.0%
McCarthy 0.315 3.98 0.342 5.51 0.266 0.749 0.318 3.65 0.285 92.33 68.0%
Bumgarner 0.217 2.28 0.278 3.03 0.256 0.710 0.251 3.06 0.199 103.17 63.8%
Kershaw 0.240 1.71 0.248 1.99 0.255 0.670 0.246 2.52 0.191 104.70 66.3%

Starting Pitcher Salaries: September 13th, 2013

Click the image below to view pitcher salaries by each daily fantasy site along with their percent of top statistics.

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About the Author

PSporer
PSporer

Paul has been writing about baseball for 15 years at various internet outlets and he’s been an avid fantasy baseballer for 21 of his 33 years on this planet, joining his first league at 12 years old which is still running today. He writes a comprehensive starting pitcher guide each year and it’s now available thespguide.com. When’s he’s not watching baseball, he is sleeping, because why would anyone waste time being awake if they weren’t going to watch baseball? He writes three times a week and has his own podcast at Fangraphs with co-hosts Eno Sarris & Jason Collette, contributes to Rotowire, and he has been a guest co-host with Matthew Berry on ESPN’s Fantasy Focus podcast.