Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Thursday, June 9th
Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.
There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ
Daily Pitcher Chart
| Pitcher | TM | OPP | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| McHugh | HOU | TEX | 265.1 | 4.10 | 3.90 | 1.32 | 42.9% | 20.1% | 5.9% | 0.92 | 1.27 |
| Perez | TEX | HOU | 145 | 3.85 | 4.45 | 1.38 | 37.5% | 14.3% | 9.0% | 0.50 | 2.52 |
| Chacin | LAA | NYY | 79.2 | 4.07 | 3.88 | 1.22 | 18.2% | 20.4% | 7.2% | 1.13 | 1.75 |
| Nova | NYY | LAA | 137 | 4.73 | 4.26 | 1.34 | 25.0% | 15.2% | 6.6% | 1.25 | 1.87 |
| Wilson | BAL | TOR | 85.1 | 3.69 | 4.86 | 1.27 | 11.0% | 6.5% | 0.84 | 1.60 | |
| Stroman | TOR | BAL | 101.2 | 3.72 | 3.73 | 1.17 | 66.7% | 16.7% | 6.3% | 0.71 | 2.87 |
| Wainwright | STL | CIN | 99.2 | 4.33 | 4.31 | 1.30 | 84.2% | 15.6% | 5.2% | 0.72 | 1.53 |
| Finnegan | CIN | STL | 117.1 | 3.76 | 4.67 | 1.30 | 18.4% | 11.1% | 1.38 | 1.44 | |
| Koehler | MIA | MIN | 247.1 | 4.18 | 4.84 | 1.43 | 52.6% | 17.0% | 10.6% | 0.95 | 1.30 |
| Santana | MIN | MIA | 156 | 4.04 | 4.40 | 1.35 | 38.9% | 18.5% | 8.1% | 0.98 | 1.15 |
| Colon | NYM | MIL | 255.2 | 3.98 | 4.06 | 1.24 | 42.1% | 16.9% | 3.4% | 1.09 | 1.14 |
| Nelson | MIL | NYM | 253.1 | 3.91 | 4.22 | 1.27 | 19.5% | 9.0% | 1.03 | 1.67 | |
| Gonzalez | WAS | CWS | 239.2 | 3.83 | 3.77 | 1.39 | 46.7% | 22.2% | 8.3% | 0.60 | 1.81 |
| Gonzalez | CWS | WAS | 177.2 | 4.76 | 4.53 | 1.42 | 40.0% | 17.8% | 8.6% | 1.42 | 1.16 |
| Tomlin | CLE | SEA | 120.1 | 3.37 | 3.78 | 0.95 | 23.1% | 19.8% | 3.0% | 1.72 | 0.94 |
| Karns | SEA | CLE | 204.2 | 3.61 | 3.91 | 1.29 | 23.4% | 8.9% | 1.10 | 1.18 |
ALL-IN:
The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.
More like all-out, amirite? The short slate leaves us ace-free which always creates an interesting dynamic since there will be a lot of variety in pitching picks.
RAISE:
The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.
Gio Gonzalez WAS (at CWS) – Gonzalez has fallen on hard times a bit after an electric start. He had a 1.86 ERA through his first eight starts, but he’s allowed 7, 6, and 5 ER in his last three starts. A 2.9 HR/9 and .444 BABIP are definitely fueling the struggles. There could be some bad luck contained in both, but he’s clearly leaving some fat pitches for the opposition, too. Despite the horrendous 10.34 ERA during the three start stretch, he does have a 12.0 K/9 and 2.3 BB/9 in the 15.7 IP. In fact, his 2.4 BB/9 for the year is a career-best. Each of the ugly starts had an implosion inning which is moderately encouraging as the trouble is more isolated and not just pervasive throughout each start. Of course I can spin it all I want, it’s still a 10.34 ERA in 15.7 IP. The White Sox have really cooled from their hot start, too.
Adam Wainwright STL (at CIN) – Is Waino finally coming around? He’s an earned run away from four straight quality starts (7 IP/4 ER) with a 3.04 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in 26.7 IP. Honestly, six of his last seven have been solid, but he still has limited DFS value because the strikeout rate has tumbled to just 15% this year. It’s at 18% during the four-start run which is passable, but hardly game-changing. His six strikeouts last time out were a season-high for him. The Reds ran him up for 7 ER back on April 16th, but they sit 26th in wRC+ against righties with a 23% strikeout rate. Wainwright really should be able to stay hot here.
Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against
| Pitcher | wOBA vs L | ERA vs L | wOBA vs R | ERA vs R | AVG | OPS | BABIP | FIP | AVG-A | Pit/G | Strk% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| McHugh | 0.308 | 4.23 | 0.328 | 3.99 | 0.259 | 0.739 | 0.320 | 3.60 | 0.269 | 0.00 | 20.1% |
| Perez | 0.236 | 1.71 | 0.331 | 4.45 | 0.247 | 0.750 | 0.298 | 3.85 | 0.261 | 0.01 | 14.3% |
| Chacin | 0.328 | 5.26 | 0.271 | 3.00 | 0.244 | 0.728 | 0.274 | 3.99 | 0.237 | 0.01 | 20.4% |
| Nova | 0.365 | 5.37 | 0.312 | 4.17 | 0.254 | 0.717 | 0.289 | 4.69 | 0.266 | 0.01 | 15.2% |
| Wilson | 0.313 | 3.42 | 0.308 | 4.03 | 0.259 | 0.777 | 0.271 | 4.31 | 0.257 | 0.01 | 11.0% |
| Stroman | 0.289 | 3.72 | 0.291 | 3.72 | 0.258 | 0.764 | 0.276 | 3.65 | 0.242 | 0.01 | 16.7% |
| Wainwright | 0.307 | 4.36 | 0.326 | 4.31 | 0.245 | 0.704 | 0.309 | 3.60 | 0.271 | 0.01 | 15.6% |
| Finnegan | 0.306 | 2.90 | 0.321 | 4.07 | 0.234 | 0.679 | 0.244 | 5.05 | 0.224 | 0.01 | 18.4% |
| Koehler | 0.341 | 4.39 | 0.309 | 3.97 | 0.242 | 0.697 | 0.290 | 4.51 | 0.253 | 0.00 | 17.0% |
| Santana | 0.338 | 4.72 | 0.308 | 3.39 | 0.258 | 0.694 | 0.298 | 4.09 | 0.257 | 0.01 | 18.5% |
| Colon | 0.308 | 3.63 | 0.316 | 4.37 | 0.254 | 0.712 | 0.305 | 3.77 | 0.272 | 0.00 | 16.9% |
| Nelson | 0.357 | 5.24 | 0.272 | 2.89 | 0.242 | 0.713 | 0.276 | 4.34 | 0.238 | 0.00 | 19.5% |
| Gonzalez | 0.274 | 3.11 | 0.320 | 4.05 | 0.245 | 0.667 | 0.330 | 3.23 | 0.261 | 0.01 | 22.2% |
| Gonzalez | 0.356 | 4.73 | 0.333 | 4.79 | 0.244 | 0.712 | 0.301 | 4.92 | 0.27 | 0.01 | 17.8% |
| Tomlin | 0.228 | 2.21 | 0.341 | 4.41 | 0.248 | 0.736 | 0.226 | 4.48 | 0.219 | 0.01 | 19.8% |
| Karns | 0.303 | 2.98 | 0.310 | 4.27 | 0.252 | 0.727 | 0.291 | 3.95 | 0.238 | 0.01 | 23.4% |
CALL:
Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.
Jimmy Nelson MIL (v. NYM) – Nelson has been solid this year, but the skills don’t quite match up so I’m interested to see where he goes from here. The major change is that he’s running a neutral platoon split after years of being knocked around by lefties although he isn’t as good against righties as in past years. So the lefty numbers improved, but the drop vs. righties almost cancels it out. He’s also seen a spike in home run rate to 1.3 HR/9. Delving into his gamelog illuminates how he’s managed such a good ERA (3.43) despite the uninspired 1.9 K:BB ratio. He’s one of those really good/really bad types, the best for DFS to be honest. There is heightened risk if he’s the bad version on the day you pick him, but who really wants the guy who is just always 6 IP/3 ER or thereabouts? Nelson has five outings of 7+ IP and 2 or fewer ER and another with 6 IP and 2 or fewer ER, but then the three sub-6 inning duds. The Mets are a nice matchup with just 3.0 runs per game since May 1st after 4.9 in April.
Ervin Santana MIN (v. MIA) – In Santana’s worst seasons, homers have been the issue. His 1.3 HR/9 is concerning, but it hasn’t been an issue all year. He had a 0.6 HR/9 in his first six starts, but 2.2 in his last four and two of those starts actually weren’t too bad. In other words, I’m expecting better days ahead of Santana, including on Thursday. He has a solid, proven track record of capable pitching: decent strikeout rate, passable walk rate, and durability.
Nate Karns SEA (v. CLE) – Karns has more strikeout certainty than Santana, but also a tougher matchup and more volatility. He also doesn’t have the durability of Santana. He’s averaged just 5.5 IP/start over his career and he’s finished seven just once this year. Home runs have been an issue in the past and this Cleveland offense is scarier than you might think. They’re top 10 in wRC+ and HRs against righties.
Brandon Finnegan CIN (v. STL) – He is more name than performance so far this year. The intrigue is there because at his best, he’s really strong, but an 11% walk rate drives his inconsistency and despite some impressive swing-and-miss stuff at times, he has just a 15% strikeout rate. It’s clear that the 23-year old lefty is still very much learning on the job. He’s too inefficient, doesn’t consistently miss enough bats, and doesn’t get any sort of home field advantage. Finnegan is one of those guys where you’re never surprised when he throws a gem, but his flaws make it tough to ever expect him to do so.
Bartolo Colon NYM (at MIL) – Not only do we have a short slate with no aces, but a lot of the pitchers worth considering are so weak in strikeouts. Colon has been his usual solid self, but there’s always risk because when he gets bombed, he gets BOMBED. He only has one total nightmare so far this year (5 IP/5 ER at LAD) and he hasn’t allowed more than 3 ER in any of his other 10 starts. The Brewers aren’t a total walkover despite their rebuilding status. They actually have some offense, but they aren’t consistent and sit just 19th in wRC+ against righties. I wonder how often Colon winds up in lineups because of his cult popularity. You definitely shouldn’t make DFS decisions based on that, but today’s slate is so busted.
FOLD:
Run away. Do Not Pass Go. Do Not Collect $200. Consider stacking with opposing lineups.
Marcus Stroman TOR (v. BAL) – Stroman is what happens when name value outweighs actual value. He just hasn’t been that good this year and yet still is often referred to as a really good option. His groundball-heavy approach isn’t conducive to strikeouts, the lifeblood of high scores for fantasy pitchers. The elite 60% GB rate helps keep the ball in the yard, but it yields more hits and that’s been the big issue for Stroman. He’s allowed 8, 8, 13, 3, 11, and 9 in his last six starts. His .303 BABIP isn’t really that out of bounds, either, especially considering his surge in hard contact rate from 22% to 33%. This matchup is terrible, too. I just can’t really consider Stroman right now. You’re never surprised when he drops seven strong innings, but it’s no longer the expectation.
Josh Tomlin CLE (at SEA) – I just can’t get over the 16% K and 1.5 HR/9 rates. I understand that he’s been successful around them (3.54 ERA, 1.10 WHIP), he doesn’t walk anyone (3%), and if you look back to 2015, he’s got 20 starts of 3.27 ERA and 0.96 WHIP. But he allows too much hard contact (35%) and has a 1.6 HR/9 since last year. That’s just asking for trouble against this team.
NOTE: Button for pitcher salary chart above opens in popup window