Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Tuesday, August 18th

by Doug Thorburn (DougThorburn) Last Updated 2015-08-20 12:45:03

Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.

There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside, so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game, so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find the needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.

LEGEND

Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE

View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ

Daily Pitcher Chart

Pitcher	TM	OPP	IP	ERA	SIERA	WHIP	GEM%	K%	BB%	HR/9	G/F
deGrom	NYM	BAL	287	2.35	3.07	1.01	50.0%	26.2%	6.3%	0.56	1.31
Gausman	BAL	NYM	173.2	3.89	4.00	1.28	37.5%	19.2%	7.4%	0.73	1.10
Dickey	TOR	PHI	372.2	3.82	4.36	1.23	47.6%	17.2%	8.1%	1.09	1.13
Nola	PHI	TOR	29.2	4.25	3.78	1.21		18.6%	4.8%	1.21	1.43
Anderson	ARI	PIT	231.1	4.16	3.99	1.32	40.0%	18.9%	7.0%	1.13	1.24
Liriano	PIT	ARI	297.2	3.30	3.40	1.22	12.5%	26.2%	10.4%	0.73	2.08
Pelfrey	MIN	NYY	152.2	4.36	4.91	1.49		10.8%	8.4%	0.71	1.89
Sabathia	NYY	MIN	175	5.25	3.58	1.45	25.0%	20.1%	5.2%	1.75	1.50
Volquez	KCR	CIN	338.2	3.14	4.27	1.24	50.0%	17.4%	8.8%	0.72	1.52
Iglesias	CIN	KCR	59.1	4.70	3.45	1.25		24.0%	6.7%	0.91	1.15
Bauer	CLE	BOS	293.2	4.26	3.96	1.32	38.5%	22.3%	9.3%	1.20	0.87
Rodriguez	BOS	CLE	78.1	4.83	4.20	1.29		18.9%	8.1%	1.15	1.26
Sanchez	DET	CHC	280.2	4.26	3.81	1.19	41.2%	20.5%	6.7%	1.03	1.14
Hammel	CHC	DET	304	3.32	3.43	1.09	47.4%	23.0%	5.8%	1.12	1.00
Iwakuma	SEA	TEX	251.1	3.62	3.05	1.04	60.0%	21.4%	3.3%	1.15	1.76
Chi Gonzalez	TEX	SEA
Conley	MIA	MIL	18	5.00	4.81	1.28		12.2%	6.8%	1.50	1.00
Cravy	MIL	MIA	24.1	5.55	4.85	1.52		15.5%	9.7%	1.48	1.07
Odorizzi	TBR	HOU	284.1	3.70	3.70	1.22	36.8%	22.8%	7.4%	0.95	0.77
Feldman	HOU	TBR	271	3.89	4.31	1.30	47.1%	13.9%	6.1%	0.90	1.63
Vogelsong	SFG	STL	295.1	4.05	4.17	1.32	52.6%	19.0%	8.4%	1.04	1.08
Lynn	STL	SFG	331.2	2.82	3.72	1.28	60.0%	22.5%	8.2%	0.62	1.18
Zimmermann	WAS	COL	348	2.95	3.44	1.12	52.6%	21.0%	3.9%	0.65	1.10
Hale	COL	WAS	136.1	4.16	4.35	1.44	40.0%	13.5%	8.2%	1.06	1.85
Danks	CHW	LAA	321.1	4.68	4.60	1.43	50.0%	15.6%	8.1%	1.12	1.00
Richards	LAA	CHW	310.2	3.04	3.55	1.11	65.0%	21.9%	7.7%	0.52	1.77
Kershaw	LAD	OAK	360.1	2.05	2.14	0.89	66.7%	32.3%	4.4%	0.52	1.87
Doubront	OAK	LAD	113	5.26	4.61	1.52	20.0%	13.6%	7.7%	1.12	1.27
Wisler	ATL	SDP	57	4.74	4.75	1.51		14.7%	7.2%	1.26	0.87
Shields	SDP	ATL	379.2	3.48	3.51	1.23	42.9%	21.9%	6.2%	1.11	1.33

ALL-IN:

The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.

Clayton Kershaw LAD (at OAK) – In case you we looking for more glorious details of Kershaw’s dominance, here are some fun facts: he has recorded more strikeouts than innings pitched 15 times in 23 games started (though none since July); he has thrown at least 8.0 shutout innings in five of his last six turns; he has given up just one home run across his last eight starts; in his last turn, Kershaw rebounded from the previous start’s four-run effort by blanking Washington over eight frames, the second time that he had turned that trick against the Nats in a span of five starts. He should have no problem man-handling Oakland tonight.

Jacob deGrom NYM (at BAL) – deGrom’s last start was out of the ordinary, with four walks (his second time with four free passes in a game this season) yet just two hits allowed, recording 10 strikeouts along the way. For sake of comparison, consider that the right-hander had given up four walks total over his previous five games combined, a stretch that spanned 34.0 innings. He burst onto the scene seemingly out of nowhere last season, but deGrom is finished surprising people and has moved on to simply mowing hitters down as one of the top arms in the National League, vying for ace status in a rotation that’s full of ‘em. To top it off, deGrom has a 1.32 ERA over his last six starts, comprising 41.0 innings with 50 strikeouts and just eight walks to go with a pristine 6-0 record. He’s not quite in Kershaw’s class, but then again nobody is.

RAISE:

The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.

Lance Lynn STL (vs. SF) – When things go wrong for Lance Lynn, they really go wrong. Case in point: in his most recent outing, Lynn only lasted nine batters, giving up seven runs (only three of which were earned), six hits, and a hit batsmen while recording just two outs against the Pirates. It was the fifth time this season that he had given up five or more runs in a game, yet only the seventh time that he had surrendered more than two runs in a contest, underscoring the boom-or-bust nature of his game log. He has done this for a few years now, enduring a couple of disaster starts each season, and things get a bit scary when the otherwise-consistent Lynn has a pair of blowup starts that occur in such close proximity. He;s rather hittable for such a highly-regarded arm, but I wouldn’t avoid any opponent bats for a pitcher whose career WHIP is an unimpressive 1.288 and has not finished below 1.262 in either of the past four seasons.

Hisashi Iwakuma SEA (at TEX) – Iwakuma is coming off of his no-hitter against the Orioles in his last start, cementing the notion that he has regained his form after a season spent battling injury and inconsistency. August has been kind to the right-hander, with three starts of at least 7.0 innings pitched with a half-dozen strikeouts, including a combined K-to-walk ratio of 21-to-four over that stretch of 24.7 frames. He faced the Rangers two starts ago, netting a quality start with seven innings of three-run baseball, a start which actually qualifies as one of his worst since returning from the disabled list in early July.

Francisco Liriano PIT (vs. ARI) – As Gerrit Cole found out yesterday, the Diamondbacks can hang with just about anybody, and the fact that Liriano is a southpaw will hardly be a deterrent for a team whose OPS is essentially the same (two-point difference) when facing a right- or left-handed pitcher. Liriano has been off his game lately, with a three-start stretch of just 14.7 innings pitched and a 5.52 ERA, giving up nine-to-10 baserunners in each game while striking out half that amount. Arizona could easily contribute to his continued slide.

Garrett Richards LAA (vs. CHW) – Richards’ command isn’t as strong as the 8.0-percent walk rate might suggest (not that it calls out elite-level control), but his egregious spine-tilt instigates an over-the-top arm slot that masks his lack command with an artificially-low walk rate; most of his mistimed pitches (and thus missed targets) finish higher or lower than intended, directions that are more likely to garner a strike from an over-anxious batter or a good-framing catcher than pitches that miss inside or outside. He gets the honor of facing the low-scoring attack of the White Sox, and he should be able to escape with minimal damage provided he stays away from the fastball-feasting lumber of Jose Abreu.

James Shields SD (vs. ATL) – The James Shields that we thought we knew before he signed with San Diego has seemingly disappeared, morphing from the control artist who kept the true outcomes low to a homer- and K-inducing machine who has posted the highest walk and strikeout rates of his career (the homer rate is the second-highest). The walks aren’t going away, with five different starts of four walks apiece out of his last 11 turns, and his eight homers given up during the same stretch indicate that his lack of command is leaking into his rates of hard contact. The Braves pose little threat to Shields’ stat-line in theory, but in their only meeting Atlanta scored five runs (four earned) off of the right-hander and forced his exit after just 5.3 innings.

Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against

Pitcher	wOBA vs L	ERA vs L	wOBA vs R	ERA vs R	AVG	OPS	BABIP	FIP	AVG-A	Pit/G	Strk%
deGrom	0.274	2.27	0.233	2.42	0.249	0.729	0.272	2.65	0.208	101.50	26.2%
Gausman	0.302	3.17	0.311	4.84	0.239	0.679	0.297	3.55	0.25	81.72	19.2%
Dickey	0.301	3.22	0.323	4.32	0.250	0.675	0.260	4.45	0.234	103.45	17.2%
Nola	0.351	4.09	0.291	4.34	0.254	0.755	0.292	4.12	0.259	90.00	18.6%
Anderson	0.321	3.71	0.342	4.54	0.259	0.715	0.306	4.16	0.266	91.66	18.9%
Liriano	0.301	4.07	0.277	3.10	0.263	0.732	0.279	3.36	0.213	94.84	26.2%
Pelfrey	0.330	4.21	0.346	4.50	0.254	0.747	0.309	4.51	0.286	91.33	10.8%
Sabathia	0.233	5.11	0.390	5.28	0.254	0.706	0.335	4.69	0.295	94.70	20.1%
Volquez	0.301	3.01	0.295	3.24	0.250	0.707	0.268	3.99	0.232	95.04	17.4%
Iglesias	0.356	6.66	0.273	3.21	0.270	0.739	0.311	3.53	0.247	84.25	24.0%
Bauer	0.323	4.58	0.319	3.95	0.261	0.722	0.290	4.29	0.242	99.31	22.3%
Rodriguez	0.351	6.27	0.302	4.37	0.261	0.714	0.277	4.31	0.243	92.71	18.9%
Sanchez	0.273	3.26	0.338	5.61	0.239	0.698	0.277	3.78	0.238	99.72	20.5%
Hammel	0.298	2.75	0.289	3.76	0.270	0.745	0.269	3.71	0.227	91.92	23.0%
Iwakuma	0.306	3.44	0.262	3.80	0.262	0.747	0.275	3.52	0.238	91.77	21.4%
Chi Gonzalez					0.237	0.705
Conley	0.385	3.18	0.324	5.84	0.215	0.636	0.268	5.28	0.265	47.17	12.2%
Cravy	0.424	5.91	0.340	5.27	0.246	0.654	0.315	5.17	0.29	79.60	15.5%
Odorizzi	0.280	3.45	0.323	4.02	0.244	0.738	0.286	3.59	0.235	97.46	22.8%
Feldman	0.310	3.07	0.330	4.76	0.241	0.681	0.291	4.15	0.266	100.77	13.9%
Vogelsong	0.356	5.03	0.298	3.26	0.262	0.723	0.287	4.19	0.248	84.83	19.0%
Lynn	0.323	3.31	0.282	2.46	0.274	0.754	0.302	3.26	0.24	103.60	22.5%
Zimmermann	0.303	3.19	0.264	2.71	0.275	0.788	0.304	2.92	0.25	92.29	21.0%
Hale	0.356	4.38	0.312	3.98	0.247	0.708	0.294	4.64	0.271	40.57	13.5%
Danks	0.293	4.10	0.360	4.88	0.235	0.672	0.298	4.54	0.269	99.87	15.6%
Richards	0.257	2.91	0.272	3.20	0.252	0.698	0.266	3.14	0.214	100.38	21.9%
Kershaw	0.238	1.89	0.237	2.09	0.244	0.679	0.281	1.98	0.197	101.84	32.3%
Doubront	0.342	5.56	0.359	5.13	0.266	0.761	0.311	4.63	0.285	68.11	13.6%
Wisler	0.436	4.91	0.291	4.60	0.243	0.679	0.321	4.64	0.293	91.40	14.7%
Shields	0.338	3.76	0.301	3.22	0.259	0.687	0.299	3.83	0.251	103.47	21.9%

CALL:

Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.

Kevin Gausman BAL (vs. NYM) – The results have been inconsistent, but Gausman’s development received an injection of stability when the Orioles gave him back the keys to the starting rotation. The 4.48 ERA is unsightly, but optimism can be gleaned beneath the surface thanks to a 52-to-16 ratio of strikeouts-to-walks in his 60.3 innings this season, including a 39-to-11 mark in 48.3 frames as a starter. Doubles have been his downfall, with 16 of the two-baggers given up in his eight starts, including five of them in his most recent turn as the Mariners made hard contact and found gaps. He gets to face the shaky offense of the Mets, and Gausman could have a realitvely-smooth ride if Lucas Duda stays out of the lineup for another day to rest his back.

Trevor Bauer CLE (at BOS) – The volatile right-hander is coming off of a horrific outing against the Yankees, having coughed up nine baserunners and six runs while producing just 10 outs, only one of which came via the strikeout. Bauer’s value is tied to his upside in the strikeout department, with the hope that he punches out enough hitters to make up for the inevitable walks and runs allowed, but with 67 strikeouts over his last 70.3 innings the K-count has failed to stand out or make up for the other deficiencies. Meanwhile his vulnerability to homers has gotten out of hand, with 16 bombs given up in his last 10 games and 23 homers total on the season; combining walks and homers is like throwing gasoline on a grease fire.

Jake Odorizzi TB (at HOU) – Things have been spotty for Odorizzi since returning from the disabled list in July, counterbalancing three quality starts in his last four turns with the pair of six-run disasters that he has endured in the past six games, the last coming in his most recent start at the hands of the feeble Braves. He hasn’t thrown more than 6.7 innings in a start since his return despite having thrown 100 or more pitches in each of his last four games, though he has brought a K-per-inning to the table during that stretch. He blanked the Astros over 5.7 innings in his first start off of the DL back on July 11th, but the Astros have since added some sock to the roster as they gear up for the stretch drive.

Anibal Sanchez DET (at CHC) – Things could get ugly at Wrigley, particularly if the wind is blowing out, as the powerful Cubs take aim against Sanchez and his MLB-leading 28 bombs allowed this season. Middle-order hitters Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant, and Kyle Schwarber will receive a boost to their homer odds as the penchant for deep flies only continues to get worse for Sanchez, who has given up nine longballs in his last five outings.

Jason Hammel CHC (vs. DET)
Mike Leake SF (at STL)
Edinson Volquez KC (at CIN)
Matt Wisler ATL (at SD)
CC Sabathia NYY (vs. MIN)
Raisel Iglesias CIN (vs. KC)
Eduardo Rodriguez BOS (vs. CLE)
Chase Anderson ARI (at PIT)
R.A. Dickey TOR (at PHI)
Jordan Zimmermann WAS (at COL)
Aaron Nola PHI (vs. TOR)
Chi Chi Gonzalez TEX (vs. SEA)
Scott Feldman HOU (vs. TB)
John Danks CHW (at LAA)
Mike Pelfrey MIN (at NYY)
Adam Conley MIA (at MIL)

FOLD:

Run away. Do Not Pass Go. Do Not Collect $200. Consider stacking with opposing lineups.

Tyler Cravy MIL (vs. MIA)
Felix Doubront OAK (vs. LAD)
David Hale COL (vs. WAS)

Starting Pitcher Salaries

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