Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Philadelphia Phillies - Game 2 Odds, Prediction, & Pick
Diamondbacks vs. Phillies Odds
| Diamondbacks Odds | +140 |
| Astros Odds | -160 |
| Over/Under | 7.5 |
| Date | Tue, Oct. 17 |
| Time | 8:07 p.m. |
| TV | TBS |
Yesterday, the Philadelphia Phillies defeated the Arizona Diamondbacks 5-3 to take a 1-0 series lead in the National League Championship Series. Tonight, these two clubs will play Game 2 from Citizens Bank Park. The first pitch is scheduled for 8:07 p.m. ET on TBS.
Ahead of the first pitch, oddsmakers have priced the Phillies as -160 favorites on the moneyline. The total for this contest is set at over/under 7.5 runs.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where baseball bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.
Arizona Diamondbacks
Merrill Kelly gets the nod for Arizona
In his first start this October, Merrill Kelly blanked the Los Angeles Dodgers over 6.1 innings of work in the Division Series. He struck out five batters and induced eight ground ball outs on 89 pitches. Though Kelly started this year’s postseason on a high note, it is worth mentioning that he has not pitched in a live game in 10 days, which is his longest period between starts of the season. Rust could be a factor early for him in Game 2.
During the regular season, Kelly struggled to a 4.32 FIP, 1.38 WHIP, 22.7% strikeout rate, and a 9.2% walk percentage when pitching on the road. His FIP was nearly a full run worse on the road, and his strikeout rate was 6.3% worse than it was at Chase Field.
Kelly will also have to contend with a tough Philadelphia lineup in this matchup, which is likely to feature three extremely talented left-handed batters, in addition to Brandon Marsh in the 8-hole. Kelly had difficulties across the platoon this summer, posting a 4.26 FIP and allowing 25 extra-base hits.
This is not a favorable matchup for Kelly, and his extended rest only introduces more potential negative variance into the equation. Expectations for him should be low on Tuesday night.
Arizona offense coming back to Earth
In yesterday’s game preview, we said that, “Unquestionably, the Diamondbacks have the worst offense remaining in the playoffs.” Today, we are doubling down on that statement.
Following the All-Star break, Arizona ranked 23rd in OPS and 26th in ISO against right-handed pitching. Only five teams hit fewer home runs on the road during the regular season than the Diamondbacks – four of them did not make the playoffs, and the one team that did make the playoffs was swept in the Wild Card round.
If there is any hope for Arizona’s offense in this series, it is on the basepaths. Last night, they had little hope to swipe a bag against Zack Wheeler, who is extremely quick to the plate. This evening, they have a better opportunity against Aaron Nola, who has a less efficient slide step with runners on base. If this lineup is going to score runs, it is likely to be more small-ball than bully-ball. Either way, they face another tough test in Game 2 against Aaron Nola.
Arizona bullpen rested heading into pivotal Game 2
If there is one positive takeaway from last night’s loss for Arizona, it is that they did not burn through their high-leverage options in the latter frames, due to an early 5-0 deficit. Tonight, their high-leverage options will almost certainly find their way into the game, with a scheduled off-day for tomorrow.
Manager Tony Lovullo has minimal high-quality depth at his disposal in the late innings in this series. After Kevin Ginkel and Paul Sewald, there are a number of question marks that Arizona fans would prefer to see remain in the bullpen as much as possible during the NLCS. During the month of September, Arizona’s arm barn generated only a 22.3% strikeout rate. The inability to get swings and misses could be a tremendous problem against a Philadelphia lineup that has plenty of power from top-to-bottom.
Philadelphia Phillies
Aaron Nola looking to give Philadelphia commanding 2-0 series lead
Aaron Nola has been sensational to begin these playoffs, with a 1.42 ERA and a 12-to-2 strikeout-to-walk ratio in his first 12.2 innings of work. Nola delivered seven scoreless frames against the Miami Marlins in the Wild Card round and followed that up with another strong outing in the Division Series against the Atlanta Braves – allowing only two earned runs in 5.2 innings.
Nola had an underwhelming regular season, at least by his standards, but he has consistently been one of the most productive pitchers in baseball across the last decade. In 2022, he finished the year ranked in the 90th percentile in xERA, 92nd percentile in hard-hit percentage, and had a historically great strikeout-to-walk ratio.
Nola’s resurgence is not a fluke. He is one of the most talented right-handed pitchers in baseball, and he has another favorable matchup in Game 2 against the Diamondbacks as he looks to continue his recent hot stretch.
Bryce Harper leads dangerous Philadelphia lineup
Yesterday, Bryce Harper turned 31 years young and celebrated with a first-inning home run off of Zac Gallen. Harper enters play on Tuesday with a career 1.044 OPS in the postseason, with 15 home runs in only 43 games played. He, along with Kyle Schwarber, Bryson Stott, and Brandon Marsh, get another favorable matchup against Merrill Kelly in Game 2, who struggled against left-handed batters during the regular season.
The Phillies were excellent against right-handed pitching during the second-half of the regular season, ranking 7th in OPS and 2nd in ISO. The forecast is once again calling for temperatures in the 50s, but we learned last night that cold weather is not going to stop this offense from doing damage at the plate.
Philadelphia bullpen firing on all cylinders
Aside from an Austin Riley eighth-inning home run in Game 2 of the Wild Card round, Philadelphia’s bullpen has been nearly immaculate to begin October. Heading into the NLCS, Jose Alvarado, Orion Kerkering, Craig Kimbrel, Seranthony Dominguez, and Matt Strahm had combined for 15.0 scoreless innings in relief during the team’s first six postseason contests. In the series opener against the Diamondbacks, Dominguez, Alvarado, and Kimbrel added another three scoreless innings to the ledger, putting the finishing touches on a Game 1 win.
This is the deepest and the most talented arm barn remaining in these playoffs. This unit is likely to continue to be a strength throughout the remainder of this series.
Diamondbacks vs. Phillies – Picks & Predictions
At first pitch this evening, the forecast has the temperature in the low 50s, with a modest wind blowing across the field from left to right. Philadelphia’s offense did damage early last night against Zac Gallen, but they have a tougher test this evening against Merrill Kelly and a fully rested Arizona bullpen. Expect both managers to be aggressive with their relievers in this spot, with a scheduled off day tomorrow. The under is a good look on Tuesday night.
PICK: Under 7.5 (-110, Fanatics Sportsbook)