DraftKings Millionaire Maker Trends Through Week 15
Sometimes we need to think about other ways to win in DFS other than simply playing the best plays. Looking at trends of top lineups is one route to take to do just that. One of the easiest tools to become a better tournament player is studying the trends of lineups that win or nearly win.
I’ve been keeping track of some trends for the DraftKings Millionaire Maker for the first 15 weeks and wanted to share some of those here in a simple format for you to understand. These are all trends from the top 10 lineups each week.
If you want to follow these yourself with a little excel work, you can create your own trends to follow by either downloading the CSV from DraftKings, or just make it easy on yourself by using ResultsDB here on RotoGrinders to gather information.
Flex Usage
If you have been reading this all season you are aware of the RBs in flex trend that is a staple nearly every week of the Top 10 lineups. This week 9 of the Top 10 lineups had a RB in the flex and on the season 67% of Top 10 lineups have used a RB in the flex. The crowd has picked up on the trend as the season has progressed as 71% of lineups used a RB in the flex for Week 15.
Average Ownership by Position for Week 15
The Top 10 lineups were littered with high owned RBs this week as Joe Mixon (41%) was on nine of the Top 10 lineups and Dalvin Cook (24.5%) was on eight of the Top 10 lineups. Some strange players ended up on Top 10 lineups this week due to scoring being down on the week as Rob Gronkowski (26%) and 4 FPTS, Eric Ebron (13.7%) and 1.8 FPTS, and Jared Cook (18.8%) and 4.3 FPTS all appeared on Top 10 lineups with horrific fantasy performances.
Average Ownership Through Week 15
Here are the totals of the AO each of the first 15 weeks of the season. We can see the strong trend of the high owned RBs dominating this year with not only RB holding a high ownership level but also looking towards the flex position as it is now the roster spot with the second highest AO on the season. As we are very deep into the season there isn’t much room for the averages to change in the final weeks.
Stacks for Week 15
This was one of the strangest weeks I have encountered all season when looking at what type of stacks made it into the Top 10. Two-man team stacks were the key on the low scoring week as the Matt Ryan to Julio Jones connection appeared on 5 of the Top 10 lineups. Another strange occurrence was three non-QB correlated stacks appearing in the Top 10 as two naked Matt Ryan lineups along with a naked Tom Brady lineup managed to post top scores. I think this was the result of a low scoring week as these specific QB’ are ones I would never consider making non-correlated lineups with.
Stacks Through Week 15
Team Stacks outnumber Game Stacks 85-50 and over the past few weeks have begun to lengthen the lead as the type of stack that is appearing most often. I still recommend building a variety of stack sizes as what can win on a week to week basis varies, but I tend to side with the 3/4 man type of stacks over the 2-man versions as those require you to nail every other spot instead of correlating more with your QB.
Bust Rates of Top 3 Highest Owned at Position Through Week 13
In Week 15 every position had at least one bust and by my metrics, 11 of the 15 highest owned players by position failed to come through for the field. Tom Brady and Big Ben ate up a combined 28.5% of QB ownership and flopped while all three of Gronk/Cook/Ebron failed at TE while eating up 58.6% of the TE ownership. If you deviated from the field outside of RB you likely found yourself at an advantage this week. On the season two out of every three of the highest owned WRs have failed to come through which makes it the most preferred position to veer away from the field at.
Low Owned Plays (Sub 5%) Per Lineup
The past three weeks we have seen low-owned plays even out at 2.2, 2.1, and 2.2 per lineup. We sit at a season average of 2.27 low owned plays per Top 10 lineup on the season. There are always a few low owned players that have the ability to post big games and finding them is one of the best ways to gain an edge on the field as you get all the production to yourself. This week Marlon Mack at 2% was one of the keys to victory who by the way had done this a few times already this season at sub 5% ownership.
Week 15 Winning Lineup
Congratulations to mbonson who had 61 entries into the Milly Maker and took down the $1,000,000. Matt Ryan to Julio Jones led the way while hitting on some of the best low owned one offs on the slate like Marlon Mack and Kenny Golladay who have both shown multiple times this season they are capable of putting up massive scores. He mixed in some of the chalk RBs like Mixon and Cook and bested the 2nd place score by 5.5 points for an easy victory. He also took 10th for good measure.
Hopefully this can help you look at the way you make your teams in a different light and help you make lineups more correlated with what the top lineups are actually doing.