DraftKings Week 16 Salary Analysis and Picks: Daily Fantasy RSI
An Introduction to Fantasy RSI
The RSI (Relative Strength Index) is a commonly used financial technical indicator that measures the average gain during times when a company’s stock is trading up and compares it with the average loss when a company’s stock is trading down.
While the RSI is not predictive, an RSI above 50 is considered to mean that a stock is overvalued, while an RSI below 50 is considered to mean that a stock is undervalued.
This same indicator can be applied to DFS to help visualize salary momentum, and better yet, to help determine undervalued/overvalued players in relation to their salary.
Very similar to what we did for Thanksgiving, I’ll also be including the 3-game Saturday slate in our Week 16 RSI results. With multiple exciting slates ahead of us, let’s see where Fantasy RSI can help us identify some early week values.
DraftKings Most Overvalued Players Based on Fantasy RSI 
Jarvis Landry – $6900
Baker Mayfield’s recent performances have provided a major boost for Landry, who has scored 19+ DraftKings’ points in 3 of his last 4 games. The problem for Landry emerges when you look at his season-high $6900 price tag, and his Week 16 opponent, the New York Jets. Cleveland runs the ball at the third-highest rate in the NFL and that rate should only increase with the Browns as 9.5-point favorites in Week 16. A continuation of the 28% target share Landry has seen since Week 12 could still keep him in fantasy relevance, but I’m not confident enough to buy into his most expensive salary of the year in what should be a run-heavy game.
David Montgomery – $7700
Who’s the highest-scoring RB over the last 4 weeks? Not Derrick Henry, but instead a man by the name of David Montgomery. D-Mont ranks 3rd since Week 12 in expected FPTs among RBs, but also rank’s as the 2nd-luckiest RB in that time-span, scoring 32.9 more DraftKings’ points than an average player would have been expected to score with that same workload. On paper, Montgomery’s Week 16 matchup with Jacksonville looks great, but the young RB has historically underperformed when the Bears are favored, averaging just 11.8 DK points when Chicago is 4+ point favorite. At a career-high price-tag of $7700, it’s wise to fade one of the league’s luckiest runners heading into Week 16.
Logan Thomas – $4900
With scores of 24.8 and 26.1 over the last three weeks, Logan Thomas has been playing like a top-5 TE. The issue is: he’s now priced like one too. In Week 15 Thomas saw an otherworldly 15 targets, hauling in 13 receptions for 101 yards and a score, notching career-high marks in both receptions and yardage in the process. All of that was with Dwayne Haskins under center, who appears to be done for the season after likely getting suspended for being recorded with no mask at a strip club (lol). No Haskins certainly makes it less likely Thomas will be able to draw close to the roughly 10 targets he’ll need to hit value as Sunday’s third-most expensive TE. If you haven’t noticed a trend so far I’ll say it again: I’m staying away from a relatively inconsistent player at a career-high price tag in Week 16.
Ben Roethlisberger – $6400
The struggling Steelers’ offense has a brutal matchup with the Colts on Sunday in what’s expected by Vegas to be one of the lowest-scoring games of Week 16 with a total of 44.5. Since Week 11, Big Ben’s 57.7 PFF passing grade ranks 27/32 QBs, while his completion percentage and passer rating also both rank bottom-10 in that time span. Despite the Steelers’ league-leading 71% pass rate, Roethlisberger has only posted 1 game this season with 30+ DraftKings’ points. At 38-years old, Big Ben doesn’t offer the same ceiling he once did, and against a top-rated defense like Indy, I would certainly recommend avoiding the veteran QB in a low-scoring environment.
DraftKings Most Undervalued Players Based on Fantasy RSI 
Josh Jacobs – $6600
Despite seeing 29 touches on Sunday, Jacobs is still $600 cheaper than he was in Week 12. An upcoming matchup against Miami in Week 16 isn’t great, but given the volume Jacobs sees in close games, he’s an intriguing tournament option at a relative discount. The sophomore RB has a guaranteed 15-touch floor and has logged 95% of the Raiders carries inside the 5-yard line. Unbelievably, Jacobs also ranks 4th on the team in targets and has seen at least three passes thrown his way in every game since Week 12. He almost certainly won’t be the highest-owned RB on the Saturday slate, but his touch-floor is so high that he probably should be.
Mark Andrews and Marquise Brown – $5700
Both Andrews and Brown are available at discounted price tags despite Lamar Jackson’s recent uptick in play. Since Week 13, Lamar ranks 3rd among QBs in passer rating, but just 28th in total dropbacks, showcasing why both Brown and Andrews have been inconsistent fantasy options: the Ravens are a run-first team. That’s not expected to change anytime soon, but both players see enough usage in high-leverage spots (namely close to the goal line) to make them intriguing tournament pairings with Lamar. Just 23 players in the NFL have seen 10+ targets in the endzone (Travis Kelce has 9, for reference), and two of those guys just so happen to be Marquise Brown and Mark Andrews. Marquise Brown also has the added benefit of ranking 7th in the league in targets of 20+ yards, but just 8 of those targets have been deemed ‘catchable’ according to PFF. Regardless, the TD upside these two provide is pretty great, and with Lamar hopefully drifting back towards his old 2019 self, both of these players figure to reap the benefits of an overall more efficient Ravens’ passing attack.
Evan Engram – $3900
Engram hasn’t been this cheap since Week 14 of 2018, clocking in as Week 16’s 8th-most expensive main slate TE. The Ravens are not a great matchup on paper, but they’ve quietly given up the 8th-most receptions to TEs, likely a product of their aggressive, blitz-heavy scheme that forces QBs to mostly attack underneath. This is great news for Engram, who ranks 3rd among TEs in targets (96), 5th in weighted opportunity ranking (0.47), and 5th in target share at 22%. With Engram’s target expectation in this game hovering around 8-12, he presents a strong value at a season-low price tag.
Jalen Reagor – $4600
I wrote up Reagor as a play in Week 15, and he, unfortunately, suffered an ankle injury that prevented him from finishing the game. Prior to that injury, however, Reagor led the team in air yards (102), targets (8), and targets of 20+ yards (2). It’s abundantly clear, especially with Jalen Hurts under center, that the Eagles want to use Reagor as a #1 WR. The rookie WR also offers a 14.5-yard average depth of target (ADoT), meaning the vast majority of targets he sees are extremely valuable since they happen deep down the field. If Reagor can get his ankle right ahead of a cushy matchup against Dallas, he’s a top tournament option, particularly if you are looking for somebody to stack with Jalen Hurts.