DraftKings Week 5 Salary Analysis and Picks: Daily Fantasy RSI
An Introduction to Fantasy RSI
The RSI (Relative Strength Index) is a commonly used financial technical indicator that measures the average gain during times when a company’s stock is trading up and compares it with the average loss when a company’s stock is trading down.
While the RSI is not predictive, an RSI above 50 is considered to mean that a stock is overvalued, while an RSI below 50 is considered to mean that a stock is undervalued.
This same indicator could be applied to DFS to help visualize salary momentum, and better yet, to assist in determining undervalued/overvalued players in relation to their salary.
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After a crazy week of postponed games and COVID-19 drama, it’s once again time to run through our DraftKings salary data to see who pops as a Fantasy RSI value for Week 5 of NFL DFS.
DraftKings Most Overvalued Week 5 Players Based on Fantasy RSI
Dalton Schultz – $4800
This Dallas offense has been a fantasy football paradise so far, and with Blake Jarwin done for the year, Dalton Schultz has starting TE duties in a top-5 scoring offense all to himself. The 3rd-year pro turned 8 targets into 4 receptions and a TD during the Cowboys high-scoring loss to Cleveland. Schultz has logged surprising usage for Dallas, ranking t-1st in red-zone targets (8) and t-2nd in overall targets (28) but he does still carry some noticeable fantasy downside, especially at this price. Even the most optimistic Schultz fans recognize he’s the 4th receiving option in this offense and his 7.7-yard average depth of target (ADoT) severely limits his yardage ceiling. Weeks 3 and 4 presented an ideal game script for Schultz, with Dallas passing on 75% of their plays, but with the Cowboys currently 9-point favorites against the lowly New York Giants in Week 5, it’s hard to see comparable passing volume this weekend.
Darrell Henderson and Malcolm Brown – $5300
Assuming Cam Akers is out again in Week 5, DraftKings made one of the NFL’s most frustrating timeshares even harder to decipher by identically pricing both Rams RBs. This past week, Henderson registered 38% of the snaps, 3% of the targets, and 35% of the carries compared to 61%, 20%, and 39% for Brown. While most fantasy players will lean Brown in Week 5, it’s worth remembering that Henderson had 20 carries in Week 3, while MB only ran the ball 7 times. McVay is rolling with a ‘hot-hand’ approach, and while it seems to be working for Los Angeles, it’s likely best to avoid entirely for fantasy.
Kareem Hunt – $6500
With Nick Chubb now on injured reserve, Kareem Hunt should see all the backfield work for Cleveland, right? Well, it may not be that simple. The Browns steamrolled the Cowboys on Sunday, leading to a stellar game script for Hunt, who played just 35% of the snaps, earned 0 targets, and was out-touched by D’Ernest Johnson 13-11. That’s pretty concerning given that most thought he would instantly become a top-5 fantasy RB in the event Nick Chubb got hurt. While it’s certainly possible the coaching staff was just trying to keep Hunt fresh during the blowout, these usage numbers provide substantial ammo for those looking to fade Hunt in a week where he will surely have massive ownership.
Melvin Gordon – $6400
In Weeks 2-4 without Phillip Lindsay, Melvin Gordon notched a strong 74% snap share and an incredible 44% of the Broncos touches. With Lindsay expected to return in Week 5, Gordon will be looking at numbers more similar to what we saw in Week 1, where he earned 62% of the snaps and a 38% touch share. Gordon is still very fantasy-relevant regardless, but Lindsay’s presence represents a noticeable hit to MGIII’s production. With Denver also facing the stout New England defense in Week 5, Gordon should be rostered with caution.
DraftKings Most Undervalued Week 5 Players Based on Fantasy RSI
DeSean Jackson – $4600
Injuries have completely derailed what many hoped would be a bounce-back year for the veteran deep-threat. If Jackson does manage to play in Week 5, it’s fair to assume he will immediately be a big part of the Philadelphia offense given their injury-riddled receiving core. While it’s hard to find good things to say about D-Jax at this point in the year, we know he has a massive ceiling and could be a solid low-owned tournament play in Week 5, especially at just $4600.
A.J. Green – $4800
The ghost of A.J. Green has given third-degree burns to the fantasy owners who continue to roster the former All-Pro. No player has underperformed more than A.J. Green through 4 weeks, who has somehow scored a league-worst 30.0 DraftKings points below expectation while converting his 32 targets into just 14 receptions. Even more miraculous, Green’s team-leading 6 end zone targets have resulted in 0 TDs. For context, in 2019 all 86 players who earned 5+ end zone targets managed to score at least once. Green’s lack of production is borderline impossible given his overall usage, but it’s certainly difficult to roster the veteran at this point. At just $4800, he’s quickly becoming too cheap to pass up on, but this production needs to improve to have any confidence in the former Georgia Bulldog.
Michael Gallup – $5400
Even with the emergence of rookie WR CeeDee Lamb, don’t forget about Michael Gallup when making your tournament rosters. With the ultimate boom or bust profile, Gallup is running the deepest routes on the team (17.6 ADoT) and leads the Dallas starters with 3.81 fantasy points per touch. Alas, the 3rd-year pro is 5th on the team in targets, but we know he has the talent to turn a 5+ target outing into a tournament-winning performance. While this week’s game against the New York Giants doesn’t set up particularly well for any Cowboys pass catcher, the over/under of 54 does benefit Gallup, who has averaged 14.3 DraftKings points in games with a total of 51 or more.
Matt Ryan – $6100
Facing a young Carolina defense at home in Week 5 is another great opportunity for Matt Ryan and Co. to put up points. While most are down on the Falcons due to porous defense and their complete inability to maintain a lead, these factors actually serve to benefit Matt Ryan for fantasy purposes. In his career, Ryan averages 22.6 DraftKings points when favored at home with a total higher than 50. This year, Atlanta is throwing the ball at the NFL’s 6th-highest rate, largely due to negative game script, a trend we can expect to continue with the state of this Falcons’ defense. With the receivers now healthy and Ryan at the 2nd-cheapest he has been all year, this week is a strong opportunity to fire off some Atlanta stacks in tournaments.
Travis Kelce – $6400
Through 4 weeks, Travis Kelce has scored 17, 24, 14.7, and 10 DraftKings points but has seen an overall salary reduction of $600. This man is leading the best offense in football in targets and receiving yards and has somehow seen his salary decrease for a Week 5 matchup against the Raiders. In 2019, there were only 2 opportunities to roster the veteran TE at $6400 or less, and in both cases, he saw a salary increase of at least $300 the following week. Kelce will see pretty massive ownership, but there are plenty of times where it makes sense to eat the chalk, and this is certainly one of them.
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