Eagles vs. Cowboys Player Props: Bets for CeeDee Lamb & DeVonta Smith
After two weeks on the road, the Dallas Cowboys are back in Texas. Who is in store for a big day in this NFC East showdown? NFL betting analyst Andy Means breaks down his favorite Eagles vs. Cowboys player props ahead of Monday Night Football.
Dallas Cowboys Player Props
CeeDee Lamb Over 77.5 Receiving Yards (-113 at FanDuel)
Projections already say to hit the over here. For example, our premium projections at RotoGrinders have Lamb at 87.05 yards at the time I am writing this. But with Amari Cooper dealing with a rib injury, there is always that chance for some hidden upside here if Cooper is laboring through this game and having trouble creating separation.
And it’s not like Lamb needs the help. In Week 1 against Tampa Bay, he hauled in 7 receptions (on a whopping 15 targets) for 104 yards. He commanded a 26.3% target share in that game (compared to the 29.8% for Cooper). In Week 2 against the Chargers—with Michael Gallup out injured and Cooper dealing with that rib injury—Lamb saw a massive 33.3% target share (compared to the 18.5% for Cooper). Lamb turned those 9 targets into 8 receptions for 81 yards.
There are just so many legit ways for Lamb to get there. He can get there on huge volume (see Week 1). He can get there on amazing efficiency (see Week 2). Geez, can you imagine what the receiving line would look like if he happened to combine the two into one game?
Whichever way I look at this, I see Lamb going over this number. And this is your friendly reminder to always be price shopping. FanDuel has this line at 77.5 (-113 on the over), whereas other shops (e.g. PointsBet) have it as high as 80.5 (with the over at -115).
CeeDee Lamb Most Receiving Yards (+230 at FanDuel)
You can go about this “most receiving yards in the game” prop in a few different ways but, officially, my recommendation is to side with Lamb. If you have access to our premium projections and sort by receiving yards for this game, this is what you would see up at the top:
CeeDee Lamb —> 87.05 receiving yards
Amari Cooper —> 82.61 receiving yards
DeVonta Smith —> 64.99 receving yards
Clearly, there is a big gap in expected production between the two main wide receivers for Dallas and the WR1 for Philly. And since Amari is dealing with the aforementioned rib injury—and because our projections prefer it too—I’ll side with Lamb here.
But another way to attack this is to say to hell with rib injuries and throw some down on Amari Cooper at +270 as well. If this game played out a thousand times, one of Lamb or Amari would end up with the most receiving yards far more often than not. So you can:
1) bet on just Lamb,
2) bet on just Amari, or
3) bet on both and still come out with a profit.
The only (realistic) way I see this going wrong, which I will dive into a bit more here in a second, is if the Dallas Cowboys secondary just gets whipped. In fact, let’s look at that now!
Philadelphia Eagles Player Props
DeVonta Smith Over 54.5 Receiving Yards (-115 at PointsBet)
It’s possible that this number is slightly deflated based on Smith’s box score from last week. In that game against the Niners, he had seven targets but only hauled in two of them for 16 yards.
But remember, this is pretty clearly the WR1 in this offense. He has a 27.1% target share through the first two games, with Jalen Reagor checking in well below him at 19.8%. Smith’s Week 1 performance is obviously much more what we are looking for here, as he caught 6 balls (on 8 targets) for 71 yards.
And one would have to think the matchup against this Dallas secondary would facilitate something far more similar to what Smith did in Week 1. You want to hear an absolutely wild stat? Through their first two games this season, the Cowboys have allowed six different pass-catchers to go over this number. Six!!!
WEEK 1
Antonio Brown: 5 receptions, 121 yards
Chris Godwin: 9 receptions, 105 yards
Rob Gronkowski: 8 receptions, 90 yards
WEEK 2
Keenan Allen: 4 receptions, 108 yards
Mike Williams: 7 receptions, 91 yards
Austin Ekeler: 9 receptions, 61 yards
Now clearly, we are talking about different scenarios here. Jalen Hurts is no Dak Prescott or Justin Herbert when it comes to throwing the ball. And DeVonta Smith is no Antonio Brown, Keenan Allen, etc. But that kind of production is clearly an indictment on the Cowboys pass defense at the very least.
And since our premium projections at RotoGrinders are already saying this is a good bet (we have Smith at 64.99 receiving yards), I am absolutely on board with the over here on Smith. Fire it up, folks.
Image Credit: Imagn