Expert Survey: NFL Playoff Best Ball ahead of Week 16
Our panel of experts is here to give you their insights on NFL Playoff Best Ball ahead of Week 16. They’re ready to answer key questions that will assist you in making those crucial drafting decisions. Curious about Neil Orfield’s preferred roster construction? Or perhaps you’re wondering about Davis Mattek’s favorite late-round target at each position? Find out below!
Expert Survey: NFL Playoff Best Ball ahead of Week 16
Which draft slot do you prefer? Who would be your ideal selection in that slot?
Neil Orfield: I weirdly don’t have a strong preference…yet. I guess #1 because I do like back-to-back picks. I typically go Puka Nacua.
Davis Mattek: The #1 slot gives you access to the best Rams builds, whereas you have a lot of other great possible options from the #6 slot (e.g. Drake Maye + TreVeyon Henderson; Jalen Hurts + Saquon Barkley), so I prefer the turns.
Dan Back: #1 or #6…gives me more optionality on stacks. At #1, Rams with Puka Nacua. At #6, Eagles with any combo of Saquon Barkley, Jalen Hurts, and A.J. Brown.
Billy Ward: #1, with my ideal start being Matthew Stafford and Puka Nacua.
Which early-round pick has the biggest bust potential?
Neil Orfield: Josh Allen
Davis Mattek: Josh Allen
Dan Back: Jahmyr Gibbs
Billy Ward: Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Who is your favorite late-round target at each position?
Neil Orfield: QB – Jared Goff; RB – Jahmyr Gibbs; WR – Amon-Ra St. Brown; TE – Tyler Higbee
Davis Mattek: QB – Sam Darnold; RB – Derrick Henry; WR – Dontayvion Wicks; TE – Brenton Strange
Dan Back: QB – Justin Herbert; RB – D’Andre Swift; WR – Rome Odunze; TE – Dawson Knox
Billy Ward: QB – Lamar Jackson; RB – D’Andre Swift; WR – Jameson Williams; TE – Colby Parkinson
What is your preferred roster construction?
Neil Orfield: A primary stack that includes at least the QB, top RB, top WR, and top TE, with two or three secondary stacks from the opposing conference.
Davis Mattek: 2 QBs, 2-3 RBs, 4-5 WRs (and then 1-2 TE on DK)
Dan Back: One strong team stack & other players from two teams in the opposite conference.
Billy Ward: One main stack and two or three secondary stacks from the other conference.
Which team stack will you be overweight on?
Neil Orfield: Patriots
Davis Mattek: Jaguars
Dan Back: Eagles
Billy Ward: Lions & Ravens
Which team stack will you be underweight on?
Neil Orfield: Bills
Davis Mattek: Texans
Dan Back: Seahawks
Billy Ward: Seahawks
Which big name will you be overweight on?
Neil Orfield: Christian McCaffrey
Davis Mattek: Christian McCaffrey
Dan Back: Jalen Hurts
Billy Ward: Amon-Ra St. Brown & Lamar Jackson
Which big name will you be underweight on?
Neil Orfield: Josh Allen
Davis Mattek: Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Dan Back: Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Billy Ward: Jaxon Smith-Njigba
What do you think is the optimal strategy for NFL Playoff Best Ball?
Neil Orfield: Ultimately, I want to be able to field a full roster in the Super Bowl round, ideally with an extra piece or two for more potential combos. I’d like to draft teams that could potentially have every player still active for the Conference Championship round (i.e. players from no more than 2 AFC teams and 2 NFC teams). To achieve this is not always straightforward though, as it is very dependent on the draft room. It is important to stay agile and accept that you might have to sacrifice some late-round pieces in order to advance.
Davis Mattek: This is pretty clear – the only thing that matters is fielding an optimal Super Bowl lineup. Anything that takes away from that is costing you money. A big shift in my thinking for these games this season is drafting more versions of optimal lineups for rarer Super Bowl matchups. For example, doing a Caleb Williams Bears stack instead of taking 3 crappy Bills players at the end of a draft.
Dan Back: Trying to find a mix of teams that will play early and still make the Super Bowl is my goal. Drafting this early has its benefits and its drawbacks. If you are a believer in a team like Detroit, who – IF they make the playoffs – would be an awesome team to have in Best Ball…you can get them on the cheap. The drawback is that if you are wrong and they don’t make the playoffs, your team will be 100% dead and you just made a nice donation. I’m playing it more conservative and staying away from teams potentially on the bubble.
Billy Ward: When drafting this early, I’m attempting to swing for the fences and build some contrarian rosters, especially in the top-heavy flagship contests where most of the payout is for 1st place. For me, that means drafting a Ravens or Lions stack (both are at around 40% to make the playoffs) along with at least two teams from the opposing conference.
With the varying roster requirements and scoring differences, how does your strategy differ between DraftKings and Underdog?
Neil Orfield: On DraftKings, I am more likely to add one-off pieces that are unlikely to make it deep into the playoffs. There is 1 additional starting spot for a TE but 2 extra roster spots, making it easier to fit in an “early-round advancement” piece.
Davis Mattek: It really is mostly the same because “scoring” is reliant on having games to play. The big difference is that there are a lot of bad drafters on DK that allow you to create super teams.
Dan Back: My preference is DraftKings because I like the deeper lineups and rosters. This allows you to take a few real off-the-board shots that could pay off if your stacks make the Super Bowl. Tight end becomes a lot more important too, as it’s a separate position on DK.
Billy Ward: The biggest difference for me is taking a shot at three stacks in one conference on Underdog, since starting one less player means we don’t need as many flex players. On DraftKings, my plan will exclusively be a primary stack with two teams from the other conference.
Which potential No. 1 seed is most likely to disappoint?
Neil Orfield: Seattle – Maybe it’s my Vikings bias, but I have a hard time trusting Sam Darnold under bright lights.
Davis Mattek: The Broncos are already preparing their excuses for when they lose in the Divisional Round.
Dan Back: Still some unknown on who it will be, but I’m fading the Seahawks on most teams mainly because they might get the #1 seed and I think they are relatively weak and have a good chance of losing if they do play in round 1.
Billy Ward: Seattle – There’s a good shot they upset the Rams this week and move to the #1 seed (for now), which makes their players less valuable. If that happens, we can get exposure to them at a better price drafting next week.
On DraftKings, how much do you prioritize getting the TE1 with your QB1? Do you frequently reach ahead of ADP?
Neil Orfield: I definitely prioritize the TE with my top QB. It always depends on which team and how the draft room is shaking out, but I frequently do reach on a handful of picks for my QB + TE stack.
Davis Mattek: I prioritize it the same as you would with a WR1. You just have to ask yourself: will this guy project well in a given Super Bowl? Jordan Love + Luke Musgrave is probably not going to win, but Josh Allen + Dalton Kincaid might!
Dan Back: I think it depends on the stack. We are seeing guys like Colby Parkinson and Dalton Kincaid go a lot higher than I think we need to take them. I wouldn’t prioritize them on DK as much as guys like George Kittle and Hunter Henry because I think those two are much more critical in those team stacks. Late-round fliers on Dawson Knox and Terrance Ferguson could still pay off for those Bills/Rams stacks.
Billy Ward: That answer is highly team dependent. I will reach a bit for a premium tight end (someone like George Kittle), but I won’t go out of my way to force it when stacking teams that don’t involve their tight end heavily.
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