FanDuel NBA 3-Man Challenge Strategy: Wednesday, November 20th
Hello Grinders. We have a really interesting 3-Man on tap with three games to choose from. Let’s dive into this daily fantasy basketball slate.
NOTE: Be sure to check out RotoGrinders’ NBA DFS news and alerts before you lock in your teams!
The 5-1-1
Let me preface this by saying I typically embrace the 5-1-1 approach, but I’m struggling here. For starters, we have a $5 Karl-Anthony Towns against a decent Jazz defense. These two teams just played and KAT dropped 59.1 FD points against the Jazz, but Andrew Wiggins is questionable for this game. If he’s out, that’s a boost for KAT. If he’s back, KAT is going to take a usage hit.
We also have James Harden at $5, but he’ll be going into Denver and up against Gary Harris defense, who I consider a plus defender. Still, Harden and KAT have the highest ceilings on the slate.
Here’s where I’m struggling – I hate the $1 bargain bin section today. And not only would we need to find some bargains today, but we’d have to find two if we decided to roster KAT or Harden. Here are the $1 options that somewhat interest me:
Coby White ($1) – White has dropped 24.1, 22.3, 42.5 and 34.1 FD points in his last four games. He’s also seen at least 23 minutes in eight straight games, as it appears he’s in a pretty solid timeshare with Tomas Satoransky. White is not a good shooter, but he can be a volume shooter and get hot from time to time. I hate banking on a rookie in a timeshare who is shooting-dependent, but he seems to carry a decent floor given his expanding role.
Tomas Satoransky ($1) – Speaking of Sato, he’s also just $1. He’s coming off a brutal 6.7 FD point performance where he saw just 17 minutes against Eric Bledsoe and the Bucks. Those game-log watching will probably be scared off, and I don’t blame them, but this is still a starting point guard who the Bulls gave a three-year, $30 million dollar deal to over the summer to be their starter. The minutes have been all over the place lately and as I mentioned above, he’s in some kind of timeshare with Coby White. Satoransky has flashed 30-40 FD point upside this season, but he’s going to need to get the minutes in order to reach that ceiling.
Jarrett Culver ($1) – This is not one I feel good about, and it really depends on the status of Andrew Wiggins, Josh Okogie and Jake Layman. Shabazz Napier is doubtful, while Layman is also doubtful and both Wiggins and Okogie are questionable. I’m under the assumption Napier and Layman are out here, and if one or both of Wiggins and Okogie can’t suit up, that’s going to force Jarrett Culver into the starting lineup and into some solid minutes. He played 23 minutes in his last game against the Jazz and finished with a modest 19.6 FD points, so this is not a big point-per-minute fantasy producer. But if the Timberwolves are lacking bodies, I can see a route where he’s viable at just $1.
The 4-2-1
Let’s now take a look at a few of the top $4 and $2 options if going with the 4-2-1 approach:
Andre Drummond ($4) – The knock on Drummond is that he’s taken a step back since Blake Griffin has returned. If you look at his box scores over his last four games, he’s failed to reach 45 FD points in each game. Even in his last game against the defensively-inept Charlotte Hornets, he finished with just 39 FD points as the Hornets adjusted in the second half against him. On paper this is a smash spot as the Bulls allow the second most fantasy points to opposing centers. Drummond smashed them for 66.8 FD points earlier this season, but that was without Griffin around to soak up some usage. I love the player, and I love the spot, but I do worry about the presence of Blake.
Russell Westbrook ($4) – Westbrook just dropped a 62.6 FD burger on the Blazers on his bobblehead night last game, and it’s a reminder that he has triple-double upside every time he steps on the court. This sets up to be a fairly neutral matchup on paper as the Nuggets are about league-average in defending opposing point guards. Westbrook has not been very good lately, so a part of it feels a bit point-chasey. I slightly prefer Drummond in the $4 range, but getting exposure to Westbrook isn’t crazy at all.
Will Barton ($2) – The last game for Barton where he played just 23 minutes and finished with 16.5 FD points is concerning, but keep in mind that was on Sunday and he was dealing with an adductor injury. Now with a few days to heal up and a matchup against the league’s 3rd fastest team in the Rockets, this feels like a spot where the Nuggets are going to lean on his scoring. Barton came into his last game playing between 36-37 minutes in four straight games, so the minutes should be there if he’s healthy. Barton also won’t have to deal with the headaches that Westbrook, Harden and Capela can cause on the defensive end, so I could see this as a spot where Barton bounces back and is one of the primary focuses on the offensive end.
Robert Covington ($2) – All the arguments I made above for Jarrett Culver apply to Covington. If we see Andrew Wiggins and Josh Okogie out, Covington will be asked to do more. One caveat with Covington is the Wolves could turn to a number of their backup forwards like Treveon Graham, Noah Vonleh or Jordan Bell to soak up some extra minutes, and for that reason I do prefer Barton over Covington in the $2 range if deciding between the two.
Danuel House ($2) – I’ll admit I’m not a big House guy, and his three steals last game do feel a bit fluky. The appeal with House is that the minutes will be there for him. He played 34 minutes last game where he returned from injury. With Eric Gordon still out, House should continue to start and see minutes in the mid-to-high 30s moving forward. If you’re playing House, you’re really banking on the minutes and hoping he can knock down his three-pointers and get a few defensive stats along the way.
Jeff Teague ($2) – Teague is a sneaky option if Wiggins as out again. Teague just dropped 40.3 FD points against the Jazz last game and gets a chance to put on an encore performance. It caught my attention when JSU mentioned Teague as one of his favorite GPP options last time out since I’ve been accustomed to not play guards against Mike Conley defense. Nevertheless, Teague destroyed in that game and should Wiggins miss another game, the Wolves will need Teague to run the point and lead this offense. I like him a lot pending the status of Makisupa.
The 3-3-1 or 3-2-2 Approach
Finally, here are a few of the $3 options that catch my eye:
Jamal Murray ($3) – Murray is one of those guys who has a wider range of outcomes than I’m comfortable with. Just look at his last two games. He scored just 17 FD points against the Nets, then exploded for 67.8 FD points last game against the Grizzlies. He’s truly a Jekyll and Hyde, so there’s plenty of risk here. The upside is there for him to match the likes of Harden and KAT at the $5 range, and I wouldn’t put it past him to even outscore many of the $4 players. He’s one of those players who doesn’t grade out well from a median perspective, but his ceiling games at upper-echelon worthy, so just keep that in mind.
Donovan Mitchell ($3) – Like Murray, Mitchell feels like someone who carries a wide range of outcomes because he’s so scoring dependent. If his shot is going down and he’s getting a few defensive stats, he has 50+ FD point upside. If his shot isn’t falling like in his last game against the Timberwolves where he shot 5-for-23, then it’s going to be a long night.
Overall, the $3 range is not pretty and you’re going to need ceiling-type games to keep pace with the $4 and $5 elite plays.
Thanks for reading, and good luck tonight. May variance be on your side.