Finding Paydirt: Week 10

by Joe Cistaro (joeycis) Last Updated 2019-11-08 17:51:35

Touchdowns, while extremely variant, make or break daily fantasy success and swing thousands of dollars every Sunday. Every weekend, players wait anxiously for the players on their roster to find paydirt. The purpose of the contest is to provide an opportunity for the RotoGrinders community to come together and have fun as we spend much of our time during the week stressing over the construction of our weekly lineups. Did I mention there will be prizes? Let’s have some fun!

Happy Friday! I can’t believe that we have already reached Week 10 on the NFL schedule. Time certainly flies. I remember just yesterday finishing up my annual season-long football draft and now we are getting close to playoff time. Read here to see how the initial week of our third month panned out. 1010mg is on fire and seems primed for another run at a RotoGrinders T-shirt. Will you be the one to stop him? Who will score touchdowns this week? Let’s find out.

First-time reader? Welcome! Read through Finding Paydirt: 2019 Contest Guidelines for information about the contest and prizes. Ready? Let’s play.

Here are the Week 10 cuts.

The Cut List

Simply put, to compete in this contest you must pick a running back, wide receiver, and tight end to score a touchdown on Sunday. The player must be on the DraftKings Main Slate and cannot be any of the players below. These players are the top five at both RB and WR and the top three at TE — I nix them hoping to make the contest more interesting.

All news points to James Conner probably not playing but he did get a partial practice in. Again, I can’t leave him in play just in case he is ruled in. Also, Kamara is set to return. Both of the Tampa Bay receivers are cut this week while tight end continues to be a wasteland. With that said, here are my picks for touchdowns in Week 10.

David Montgomery – RB – $5,300

DraftKings Sportsbook does not have many props posted at the time of this writing but they do have a touchdown prop for David Montgomery. Montgomery is -134 to score a touchdown against a defense that continues to represent a sieve against opposing running backs.

Montgomery is the only back in the Bears’ backfield that should receive any considerable amount of work on the ground game. With 14 attempts last week and 27 the week before, Montgomery will be used heavily if the Bears can stay in a manageable game script. He also has greater than 71% of the Bears’ attempts inside the 10 and an astonishing 13 endzone targets. As a few members in Discord already mentioned, take those targets with a grain of salt considering who is throwing the ball in Chicago.

The Lions can’t help but give up touchdowns against running backs. Totaling 13 touchdowns allowed on the season, the Lions allowed another two last week to Josh Jacobs. Yielding a league-worst 33.6 DraftKings points per game to opposing backs, the Lions’ defense is a premiere spot to attack with running backs. Book Montgomery for two.

Davante Adams – WR – $6,900

Davante Adams returned last week against the San Diego Chargers after missing four weeks with a toe injury. One might presume that Adams would be eased back in — especially with the Packers’ offense moving the football so well in his absence. Nope. The Packers got annihilated by the Chargers and Adams was targeted 11 times. He did not do much with those targets — merely totaling 41 yards on seven catches. That said, Adams is still the featured threat for Green Bay when he is on the field.

Admittedly, having Adams even available to us feels strange as he was always a top-priced receiver play last season. I am sure his price will rise sooner than later, so I want to jump on before he hits the cut list. Adams still has 27.2% of the Packers’ target share after missing four weeks. The other receivers did nothing in his absence to make me believe Adams won’t be heavily targeted every game.

The Panthers have not allowed many touchdowns to the wide receiver position but boy they allow plenty of catches. The 202 targets and 127 catches allowed by the Panthers are second-worst in both categories in the NFL. Despite only allowing the five touchdowns, the Panthers are in the bottom ten in fantasy scoring for opposing wideouts (40.2 DKpts per game). With a 26-point team total, Adams should factor into scoring, somehow.

Eric Ebron – TE – $3,900

Without T.Y. Hilton and in a matchup against the Dolphins, the Colts’ tight ends could receive a nice boost. At $3,600, Jack Doyle could see some ownership on DraftKings given the appetizing matchup and target numbers. That said, I don’t care about DraftKings plays as much as I care about finding the endzone.

I also want to zag when others zig. I imagine Doyle will be popular and while he still might have a very friendly fantasy day, there certainly exists a path for Eric Ebron to catch two touchdowns while Doyle helps move the ball down the field. Ebron is big and wildly athletic — the archetype for a red zone threat. I bet he played basketball or something…

Thanks very much for taking the time to read through this week’s article. Be sure to tell me who you think will score a touchdown at each position in the comments section below. Also, give me a follow on Twitter to stay updated with the content I contribute to RotoGrinders throughout the football season. I will be back on Tuesday with a recap of Week 9 as well as a leaderboard update. Until then, good luck.

Image Credit: USA Today Sports Images