Fontaine's Advanced Matchup Plays: Week 5

by Bryan Fontaine (rookieblitz) Last Updated 2013-10-05 23:18:34

Bryan Fontaine (BryanFontaine on RotoGrinders) is regarded as one of the best dynasty minds in the business. He is the Dynasty Editor and a Senior Writer for PFF Fantasy at ProFootballFocus.

Each week I will recommend several players that are primed for big performances when you look deeper at the numbers and trends. With the growing popularity of daily fantasy football, simply looking at the basic information and statistics available to everyone won’t give you the edge you need to consistently submit winning lineups.

Note: Hit the ($) icon for player prices this week

Last week’s results were better than the week before with Jamaal Charles, Torrey Smith, Jimmy Graham and Brandon Pettigrew providing a great return on their investment. This week, I’m simplifying things to an extent. I think it is beneficial to stack Detroit going to Lambeau Field, fade the Broncos, and plug in some players returning from injury/suspension and the easiest decision each week: start Jimmy Graham. Here are my picks for Week 5:

Matthew Stafford – (QB) Lions at GB

As I mentioned in the opening, if you can afford both Stafford and Calvin Johnson – it will be a tough combination to beat. Stafford has already put his disappointing 2012 season behind him and through four games he is averaging 315 yards passing, 1.75 touchdowns and 0.75 interceptions per game with a 64 percent completion percentage. This is where the rubber meets the road because Green Bay has struggled on defense in three games allowing 322 passing yards a game, 2.6 touchdowns and 0.66 interceptions with a 68 percentage completion percentage. Advantage Stafford in each instance.

The injury to Nate Burleson hurts, though he wasn’t a top target for Stafford. His main weapons have been Johnson (25%), Joique Bell (14%), Reggie Bush (10%) and Brandon Pettigrew (12%). Pettigrew rebounded nicely last week, Bush and Bell provide easy screen passing yards, and Johnson is set up to have a monster game (more on him later). It’s risky to stack with a road team, but this is a different Lions team that will look to prove they’ve become a contender against the old guard.

Projection:

Terrelle Pryor – (QB) Raiders vs. SD

It is clear the Raiders missed Pryor last week because Matt Flynn was so bad that he was demoted to third-string quarterback after the game. This matchup on late Sunday night (thank you MLB) is setting up nicely for Pryor – but not like you would normally think.
The Chargers pass defense is bad – we know this. They have given up 329 passing yards with a 69 percent completion percentage, 2 touchdowns, and 0.25 interceptions through four games. What we are really concerned about is the rushing yardage they allowed to quarterbacks since that is where most of Pryor’s intrigue comes from. San Diego has allowed 107 yards rushing and two touchdowns to quarterbacks, which 89 of those yards on quarterback scrambles and not designed runs. Tony Romo and Matt Schaub are not known for their mobility so most of that damage was done by Michael Vick and Jake Locker. Five of Locker and Vick’s combined 11 rushing attempts (45%) were scrambles and the Chargers allowed them to scramble on 7 percent of their combined 81 drop backs.

With that aside, Pryor’s passing totals will see a boost but likely not exceed what San Diego has surrendered to the other four passers they’ve faced so far. The rushing yards is what we really want to focus on. Pryor has scrambled on 11 percent of his drop backs and totaled 198 rushing yards on 26 carries (15 designed runs). I’d bank on Pryor getting 50-100 rushing yards when it is all said and done.

Projection:

Reggie Bush – (RB) Lions at GB

Reggie Bush makes a good play if you agree with my Detroit stack against the struggling Green Bay defense. Green Bay has not been particular bad against opposing running backs allowing 85 yards and a touchdown per game but they haven’t played a group like the Lions have either. Bush does most of his damage in the passing game where he is averaging five targets per game with a 29 percent target rate every time he runs a route. Based on how this game will unfold, it would not be surprising to see Bush with eight targets based on his target rate. The best comparison I can make so far is “Giovani Bernard(player-profile)”:/players/Giovani_Bernard-16537’s 10/50/1 and 4/49 stat line from Week 3 against Green Bay and I can see Bush with those numbers by the half.

This game looks like it could be a shootout and with few other good options this week – Bush should find a spot in your lineup.

Projection:

David Wilson – (RB) Giants vs. PHI

David Wilson has been an early disappointment this year. As you will see below, his first two games went as poorly as humanly possible though his splits since have been encouraging.

Luckily his season will get back on track this week with a matchup with Philadelphia that cures all. The Eagles have allowed 104 yards per game to opposing running backs and three touchdowns in four games. Included in that is eight missed tackles during the stretch – including one carry against Jamal Charles in the fourth quarter that the defense missed three tackles on that lone play turning a 1-yard rush into a 17-yard gain. With another seven receptions and 54 yards allowed through the air, and the Eagles will make look Wilson look like the stud we thought he was entering the season.

Projection:

DeAngelo Williams – (RB) Panthers at ARZ

File this one away as a contrarian-type pick this week. The numbers indicate that Arizona has been tough against the run but aside from bottling up Doug Martin (27/45 yards) last week – they haven’t necessarily been challenged by a team with a competent feature back. We can chalk Martin’s performance up the Cardinals daring rookie QB Mike Glennon to beat them through the air and stacking the box. Through four games they are allowing just 66 yards per game, however, 158 out of the 265 yards allowed have come after contact and they have missed 13 tackles on opposing backs.

Cam Newton will be a greater threat than Glennon was last week and the running lanes should be open for Williams in this contest. Williams is averaging 4.7 yards per carry and has forced eight missed tackles of his own.

Projection:

Calvin Johnson – (WR) Lions at GB

As I mentioned with Stafford and Bush, Johnson is going to also have a huge game this week. His reception totals and yards are down by his standards but his touchdown rate is as good as it has ever been with four touchdowns in four games. Even his target totals are down about 2.5 per game from last year. But all we care about are the touchdowns and he’s in position to keep that streak alive.

The Packers have been stung by No. 1 receivers through three games with Anquan Boldin (13/208/1), Pierre Garcon (8/143/1) and A.J. Green (4/46/1). Here is the breakdown of each Green Bay defender assigned to these three players:

Think the Lions will do whatever they can to get Johnson matched up against Sam Shields? This is one of the few weeks I am willing to pay top dollar for Johnson’s production. You can offset his salary with some of the recommendations below.

Projection:

Roddy White – (WR) Falcons vs. NYJ

Raw statistics are great, but sometimes you have to throw them out the window with a situation like Roddy White has had this season. He entered the season with a high ankle sprain and it clearly limited him early. The good news is that he appears to be getting healthier and the old Roddy White may be back as soon as this week. Let’s take a look at his snap trends since Week 1 (we will ignore the poor production for now):

His snaps have a positive trend for three straight weeks and that correlates well with his target amounts as well. The Jets don’t have a poor defense but they have allowed an average of 13 receptions, 185 yards and a touchdown each week to opposing wide receivers – including a 4/105/2 day to Nate Washington. The Falcons are in a must-win situation with a healthier Roddy White and plenty of reasons to feed him the football. I’m anticipating a big game in this one for White with most of the attention paid to Julio Jones.

Projection:

Terrance Williams – (WR) Cowboys vs. DEN

Terrance Williams is your bargain bin play of the week if you think Denver is going to take care of business in Dallas. Williams came on strong last week with a 7/71 stat line in relief of Miles Austin and it appears he will get to reprise that role again this week.

Williams doesn’t figure to be featured early with Bryant, Witten and Murray ahead of him in the pecking order for Romo. Come the fourth quarter if the team is down, Williams could be in line for some garbage time points. Most of the production Denver has given up through four games has occurred in the fourth quarter (or at least greater than 25% in an even distribution):

I’m utilizing Williams this week in lineups I also have Calvin Johnson to help offset his hefty salary on most sites.

Projection

Brandon Pettigrew – (TE) Lions at DET

If you choose to fade Jimmy Graham this week (at your own risk), then Brandon Pettigrew makes a good value play in our Lions stack for Week 5. He answered our call last week with seven catches for 54 yards for a modest 8.9 fantasy points. Green Bay has played opposing tight ends tough since Week 1 after they allowed Vernon Davis to walk all over them to the tune of 6/98/2. In subsequent weeks, rookie Jordan Reed caught a touchdown and both Jermaine Gresham and Tyler Eifert had marginal days.
Pettigrew’s average depth of target against Chicago was just 3.1 yards – clearly as a check down option for Stafford. What we haven’t seen so far is an increase of red zone targets for Pettigrew. He only has one through four games (0.25 per game), so that is due for a regression to his 2012 rate (0.71 per game).

It is risky to roll out Pettigrew this week but the payoff could be bigger than last week – especially with the creativity you have with the remainder of your roster.

Projection: